Repeating Last Year's Success Won’t Be Easy

[Sam Charles]

The Blue Jays were two outs from ending a 32-year title drought before Miguel Rojas tied the game and sent it to extras. They were inches away from winning Game 7 when Isiah Kiner-Falefa was thrown out at the plate. The Dodgers would end up outlasting Toronto in the 11th to repeat as champions. A devastating end to an improbable season for the Jays.

Considering the way the season started, it wasn’t a forgone conclusion that the Jays would even get to the postseason. Contributions by their stars and unheralded players enabled the Jays to win the division. From there, the team advanced to the World Series through razor-thin margins: a Game 7 ALCS decided by George Springer’s go-ahead homer and a World Series that swung on defensive gems and bullpen decisions. In 2026, the same coin flips may not have the same results.

Through elite contact, improved infield defense, and matchup creativity, the Jays got ever so close to the elusive title. Repeating will take more than merely duplicating performance, as there are so many variables at play, including opposition results, injuries, team cohesion and overall luck.

The same two teams have met in back-to-back World Series nine times in MLB history, with the most recent being the Yankees-Dodgers rematch in 1981 (after 1981, they met again in 2024). These rematches are rare, with notable instances involving the Yankees, Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals, Cubs and Tigers.

The biggest offseason storyline for the team is still a waiting game: Will Bo Bichette re-sign and provide the Jays with a similar look to their lineup for 2026? His departure would require some shifting in the infield and force the team to look for other ways to replace his offensive output.

The Jays’ win-now approach is clear. The $500 million extension Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed during the season and Dylan Cease’s recent $210 million deal anchor the payroll. Those moves signalled intent but may limit additional options.

Money won’t necessarily buy love or championships. Historically, the highest-spending MLB teams are generally successful. They often make the playoffs and compete for championships. Prime examples would be the Dodgers and Yankees. However, spending money doesn’t guarantee winning seasons. Just look at the 2023 or 2025 Mets, who spent big with no result. Some teams, such as the Rays and Brewers, use smart development to compensate for lower payrolls, but that isn’t the way the Jays have elected to do things.

To return to where they left off, the Jays will need to see some repeat performances. Springer posted career-best numbers at age 35. Ernie Clement became a postseason folk hero. Expecting both to repeat peak seasons may not be realistic. Will Daulton Varsho and Addison Barger continue on an upward trajectory? What about injuries?

And that’s only the offence.

Next season will see the introduction of Major League Baseball’s Automated Ball-Strike Challenge System. That will be an interesting new wrinkle for all teams, including the Jays. Alejandro Kirk’s framing will undoubtedly continue to be an advantage for the Jays, especially with the new system in place. Catchers who understand the edges, who know which pitches deserve a challenge and which should be let go, will save outs and baserunners over a season.

The new starting rotation led by Cease and Kevin Gausman will be formidable. It will be fascinating to see how opposing lineups handle Trey Yesavage after his phenomenal debut at the end of last season and into the postseason.

The postseason taught us that how a team uses its starters is as important as who those starters are. The Blue Jays leveraged matchups, piggybacks, and aggressive bullpen usage to keep games in reach. The regular season demands a different tempo. Gausman and Cease will need to soak up quality innings to preserve the relievers for leverage.

Yesavage’s next step will be less about pure stuff than sequencing, stamina, and the patience to survive third-time-through exposures. If the rotation can blend efficiency with tactical flexibility, thereby shortening games when it must and stretching them when it can, the Jays might be able to survive the inevitable valleys of a six-month grind.

Apart from bringing back Bichette or signing Kyle Tucker, the Jays are working on upgrading their bullpen. Bullpens, even more than starting rotations, are often the most unpredictable component of a team every season. Depending on a bullpen's usage during the regular season, its success can waver into the postseason. That was evident for both the Jays and Dodgers during the World Series.

The coaching staff will see some new faces in 2026. Manager John Schneider, associate manager DeMarlo Hale and pitching coach Pete Walker will be back, as will hitting coach David Popkins. Don Mattingly stepped down from his role as bench coach at the end of the season, and assistant hitting coach Hunter Mense departed to San Francisco to become their hitting coach.

New voices on the coaching staff may recalibrate risk tolerance or redefine what “aggressive” means on the bases. On the hitting side, the bridge between analytics and feel is delicate. Popkins’ return will keep the language consistent, but Mense’s exit removes a connector who helped translate data into daily routines for key players. The coaching staff’s main job in 2026 will be to retain the clarity that fueled 2025 while inviting fresh perspectives that can help the offense in specific matchups and mitigate poor decisions when the pressure mounts.

Intangibles like team chemistry and how the players respond to adversity are where the “luck” and the magic of a season unfold. Beneath that, can the Jays maintain their league-best contact rate from 2025 and further improve their defense and bullpen? Replicating all of that won’t come easy. Not to mention that after a successful season as the top team in the American League, there will be a target on their backs.

It will be hard for the Blue Jays to repeat their 2025 success in 2026, not because they were lucky, but because the precise set of factors that made 2025 work will be difficult to reproduce. Still, with bold adaptation and health, they can finish what they started in 2026.

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