Can the Blue Jays Still Afford Bo Bichette, or Another Top-Tier Bat?

[Bryan Jaeger]

The Toronto Blue Jays shocked the MLB world the night before American Thanksgiving by signing Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. With Cease joining an already strong starting rotation — featuring Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, José Berríos, and now Cody Ponce as well — the Jays significantly bolstered their pitching staff.

Although Berríos is expected to be ready for spring training, how he will fare during his recovery this offseason remains a big question. Regardless of who claims the fifth rotation spot, the Blue Jays are now positioned to have one of the best starting rotations in all of MLB. Yet, with such a significant contract added to their books, the question now shifts to whether the Blue Jays can still add a top-tier bat.

The Blue Jays are expected to exceed the second Competitive Balance Tax threshold (set at $264 million) for a second consecutive year in 2026. That means they will pay a 30% tax on all overages (the penalty for teams that surpass the luxury tax threshold two years in a row) as well as a 12% surcharge on every dollar they spend past $264 million (the penalty for surpassing the first luxury tax threshold by more than $20 million). 

If their CBT payroll reaches $284 million ($40 million over the first CBT threshold), they will face both a significantly higher surcharge rate and the penalty of their first-round draft pick moving down 10 spots. The Jays surpassed this threshold in 2025, and they are already very close to surpassing it again. So, these financial and draft consequences could affect their decision to add more high-salary players.

Signing a bat like Bo Bichette, who DiamondCentric projects to earn a $25 million annual salary, could put the Blue Jays over the fourth CBT threshold, at which point the surcharge on overages rises to 60%. 

Re-signing Bichette could still be worth it, especially if he stays at second base, where he played in the World Series. Last season, he struggled defensively with a -12 DRS and -13 OAA, both the lowest among shortstops. Yet, it would cost the Blue Jays significantly more than just the value of his salary.

The Blue Jays still also need an upgrade at closer, or at least a new middle reliever, so they might prefer to add a bat via trade rather than sign another expensive free agent. Acquiring a player this way could help them keep their luxury tax bill down and possibly avoid further draft penalties. Potential trade targets include infielders Ketel Marte of the Diamondbacks and Brandon Lowe of the Rays. Other players rumored to be available include Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm, Red Sox outfielders Wilyer Abreu and Jarren Duran, and White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. That said, since the outfield is already a logjam, any new bat is more likely to be an infielder.  

In any case, the Blue Jays are clearly set up to be one of the top teams again next season. Their offseason decisions in the coming weeks will be closely watched as they look to further improve an already elite team.

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