Should Former Toronto Blue Jay Coach Don Mattingly Be A Hall Of Famer?

[Bob Ritchie]

There are two ways MLB players can be elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame. The first is the annual election conducted by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America (“BBWAA”). The second is selection by the Era Committee, formerly the Veterans Committee. Of the 278 former major league players who are members of the Hall of Fame, 117 were elected by the Era/Veterans Committee. The Era Committee will officially announce the election results on December 7, 2025.

Concerning the BBWAA’s election, an eligible player’s name must appear on at least 75% of the BBWAA ballots cast each year to become a Hall of Fame member. The BBWAA removes a candidate from future ballots if either the candidate’s name appeared on fewer than five percent of the ballots or the player was on the ballot for 10 years but did not meet the 75% condition. Don Mattingly was first on the BBWAA’s ballot in 2001 and appeared on 28.2% of the ballots. Under the then-rules, Mattingly was on the ballot for 15 years, did not meet the 75% threshold, and was removed from future ballots. In 2015, Mattingly’s last year of eligibility, his name appeared on 9.1% of the ballots.

In 2018 and 2020, Mattingly was eligible for Hall of Fame consideration by the Veterans Committee but did not receive a vote in either year. In 2022, the Hall of Fame renamed the Veterans Committee the Era Committee and split the ballots into two time periods: the Contemporary Baseball Era (post-1979) and the Classic Baseball Era (pre-1980). Mattingly received 50% of the 16 votes in the 2023 Contemporary Era ballot. He is on the 2026 ballot.

Mattingly played 14 seasons for the New York Yankees (1982 to 1995) and posted a 42.4 bWAR and a 124 wRC+. He was considered by many to be one of the best defensive first basemen of his generation. His notable achievements include the following:

• The 1985 AL MVP. Also, he finished fifth, second, and seventh in the 1984, 1986, and 1987 AL MVP voting.
• Nine American League Gold Glove Awards (1985-1989 and 1991-1994).
• Three Silver Sluggers (1985-1987).
• During his MLB career, the Yankees failed to qualify for the postseason from 1982 to 1993; MLB cancelled the 1994 playoffs due to the players’ strike. However, in his one postseason (1995), Mattingly posted a 200 wRC+ in 25 plate appearances.

Starting in the late 1980s, back issues plagued Mattingly, and his power declined significantly. From 1982 to 1987, Mattingly generated a 0.212 ISO, much higher than MLB’s non-pitcher 0.137 average. However, for the 1988-1995 period, Mattingly’s 0.164 ISO was just 27 points higher than the MLB non-pitcher 0.137 average. Between 1982 and 1987, Mattingly’s wRC+ was 146, and it was 109 for the balance of his career.

A valuable tool to evaluate whether a player has earned a Hall of Fame membership is three bWAR-based metrics: bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS. bWAR does not require explanation, but WAR7 and JAWS do. One of the limitations of career bWAR is that a Hall of Fame candidate may have generated a high bWAR because they played many seasons. Since a Hall of Famer should be one of the best at their position over multiple seasons, WAR7, a player’s seven-highest bWAR seasons, is informative because it measures dominance across many seasons. JAWS, developed by Jay Jaffe, is the average of bWAR and WAR7, and it is instructive because it balances these two metrics (bWAR and WAR7). Jaffe, now of FanGraphs, wrote an excellent article about Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

It is the bWAR-related metrics that hurt Mattingly’s Hall of Fame candidacy. In addition to Mattingly, Table 1 shows the top 15 career bWAR marks of first basemen whose MLB career began after 1979. Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR 7, and JAWS numbers are noticeably below the average of the Hall of Famers on the list (Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Jim Thome, Todd Helton, Fred McGriff, and David Ortiz). Of these Hall of Fame members, McGriff is the only player voted in by the Era Committee. Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS stats are 42.4, 35.7, and 39.1, which rank 21st, 17th, and 20th, respectively. 

Concerning the all-time Hall of Fame list, there are 25 first basemen. Their average bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS are 65.0, 42.0, and 53.5, respectively. Furthermore, among all first basemen, Mattingly’s bWAR, WAR7, and JAWS ranks 45th, 34th, and 40th, respectively. 

There is an argument that, because an injury curtailed Mattingly’s performance significantly and shortened his career, one should judge his career in that light. Accordingly, I present Hall of Fame pitcher, Sandy Koufax.

From a performance perspective, Koufax’s career is nearly the mirror image of Mattingly’s. Whereas Mattingly’s first half of his 14-year career accounts for 69% of his career bWAR, Koufax generated 87% of his career pitching bWAR over the last six seasons of his 12-year career. Despite an arthritic elbow, which he linked to jamming his throwing arm on the basepaths in a 1964 game against the Braves, Koufax was dominant in 1965 and 1966 (18.4 bWAR). However, arthritic pain and concerns about the health effects of painkillers led Koufax to retire at 30 after the 1966 season.

At the conclusion of the 1971 season, Koufax’s 48.9 bWAR and 46.0 WAR7 were below the then-average Hall of Fame pitcher’s 66.4 bWAR and 48.3 WAR7. Koufax was on the BBWAA ballot for the first time for the 1972 Hall of Fame Class; his name appeared on 86.9% of the ballots cast, and he was elected to the Hall of Fame.

When Koufax was elected to the Hall of Fame, the Wins Above Replacement model did not exist, at least publicly. For many writers, one metric they consider is pitcher wins. At the conclusion of the 1971 campaign, the average win total of the Hall of Fame pitchers was 246, which Koufax fell short of (165). However, during the last six years of his career, Koufax recorded 129 wins, or 21.5 wins per season. I guess that BBWAA writers used the 21.5 wins per season as evidence of Koufax’s dominance in the last six years of his career.

The Koufax historical review is a long-winded journey back to Mattingly. Was Mattingly Hall-of-Fame-worthy dominant before injuries either curtailed performance or shortened his career? The answer is no.

As Table 2 shows, Koufax was dominant at his peak. In his four and five-best bWAR campaigns, he posted 9.1 and 8.4 per-season marks. That is dominant. However, if one looks at Mattingly’s comparable periods, his per-season bWAR figures are 6.3 and 5.8, respectively. Mattingly’s best years were impressive but not elite enough to overcome his 21st career bWAR mark among post-1979 era first basemen. Koufax’s four, five, and six-year peaks were more than enough to justify his induction into the Hall of Fame, despite lower career, wins, bWAR, and JAWS numbers.

Circling back to Table 1, Mattingly’s WAR7 is like those of Ortiz and McGriff. So, should he not be in the Hall of Fame? For two reasons, the answer is no. First, the career bWAR marks of Ortiz and McGriff are at least 10 units higher than Mattingly’s. Accordingly, Mattingly’s peak years were not dominant enough to overcome his career bWAR shortfall. Second, Hall of Fame membership should be exclusive and reserved for those who were clearly the best of their era at their position. In other words, the entrance bar should be set high. The Hall of Fame candidacies of Ortiz and McGriff were marginal. The bar should not be lowered further to grant Hall of Fame access to Mattingly.

The Last Word
Early in his career, Mattingly was among the best at his position. No doubt injuries limited his performance and shortened his career. However, his best seven seasons rank 17th among first basemen in the post-1979 era. Compared to a player like Koufax, whose career was also shortened partially due to injury, Mattingly’s best seasons were not as dominant. The threshold to be a Hall of Famer should be set high. Accordingly, like many players, Mattingly belongs in the Hall of Very Good, not the Hall of Fame.

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