What Does Dylan Cease Bring to the Toronto Blue Jays?

[Bob Ritchie]

On November 26, news broke that the Toronto Blue Jays signed free agent Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract, pending the results of a physical. If completed, the deal would be the most significant financial commitment that Toronto has made to a free agent.

According to multiple websites, including DiamondCentric, FanGraphs, and MLB Trade Rumors, the top three MLB-proven free-agent starters were Cease, Framber Valdez, and Ranger Suárez. From Toronto’s perspective, what separated Cease from Valdez and Suárez? Let us start with the basics.

Cease is a seven-year MLB veteran with career ERA, xERA, and FIP marks of 3.88, 3.66, and 3.67, respectively. Valdez has eight MLB seasons on his resume and has posted career ERA, xERA, and FIP metrics of 3.36, 3.76, and 3.51, respectively. Suárez has generated ERA, xERA, and FIP numbers of 3.38, 3.61, and 3.54 during his eight-year MLB career. Those xERA and FIP numbers would make any of these starters attractive to MLB teams. Let us focus on the seasons post-2021, when all three pitchers became full-time members of a starting rotation. Accordingly, behold Table 1. 

I used ERA- and FIP- instead of ERA and FIP to account for park factors and run-scoring environments across different seasons. I was unable to find an xERA- equivalent. One can note a slight difference in FIP- between these starters during the 2022-2025 period. According to xERA, Cease (3.40) has pitched better than Valdez (3.69) and Suárez (3.74). If one considers ERA-, Cease does not look as attractive as Valdez or Suárez. 

Cease’s 2025 112 ERA- and 2023 107 ERA- raise a Spockian eyebrow. However, BABIP is a factor. Cease’s career BABIP is .295. Yet, in 2025 and 2023, his BABIPs were .320 and .330, respectively. Those elevated BABIP numbers suggest that Cease experienced a bit of bad luck or poor defence behind him. Regarding defence, the fielders behind him in 2022 and 2024 posted OAA numbers of +1 and -2, respectively. In 2023 and 2025, Cease’s defence generated OAA marks of -7 in both years. It is impossible to quantify the impact of luck on Cease’s elevated BABIP, but the OAA numbers show that poor defence probably boosted his 2025 and 2023 ERAs.

For comparison purposes, Valdez’s 2025 BABIP was .297, and Suárez's was .317, both of which were 15 points higher than their career marks before 2025. Cease’s 2025 BABIP was 30 points higher than his pre-2025 career BABIP. Also, the 2025 defences behind Valdez and Suárez posted OAA marks of +7 and 0, respectively. Therefore, all factors considered, Cease’s 2022-2025 ERA-, FIP-, and xERA scores are comparable to those of Valdez and Suárez.

A quick word on Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching+. Please take a look at Table 2. In 2025, Cease and Valdez were above average according to Stuff+, and Suárez produced the best Location+ mark among starters. All three excel at the factors considered by Pitching+. Based on these models, Cease, Valdez, and Suárez were, overall, particularly good in 2025. 

Okay, what is the first separator? Glance upon Table 3! 

Cease and Valdez have been exceptionally durable. Since 2022, Cease’s 130 starts are the second most in MLB, Valdez’s 121 starts are the 11th highest, and Suárez's 104 starts rank 34th. Regarding innings, Valdez is #2, Cease #7, and Suárez #31. Suárez has not been as durable as Cease or Valdez. In 2022, 2024, and 2025, he was on the IL due to back issues, totalling 87 days. In 2023, Suárez had two stints on the IL: 45 days with an arm ailment and 15 days because of a hamstring injury. Durability is the first separator between Cease and Suárez.

Gaze upon Table 4, as we have another separator: Cease's strikeout rate over the past four seasons is 29.2%, much higher than Valdez's (23.9%) and Suárez's (22.0%). Among all pitchers, in 2025, Cease’s K% ranked in the 89th percentile, whereas Valdez and Suárez both ranked in the 55th percentile.

A metric related to K% is Whiff%. Concerning 2025 Whiff%, Cease ranked in the 95th percentile among all pitchers, while Valdez was 59th and Suárez 24th. For the Blue Jays, who emphasize a low K%, high contact rate, and OBP when it comes to hitting, seeking the opposite attributes in a pitcher would be logical. Hence, Cease’s high-ranking K% and Whiff% would make him stand out for Toronto compared to Valdez and Suárez.

Okay, we must talk about Cease’s BB% because it is high (in the 20th percentile in 2025). Cease’s BB% ranking pales in comparison to Suárez's (86th percentile) and even Valdez's (40th percentile). However, there are two positives of note.

First, pitching coach Pete Walker has a history of helping pitchers lower their BB%. Remember Robbie Ray, a high K% and BB% starter? From 2018 to 2020, Ray posted a 30.7 K% but a 13.1 BB%. However, after working with Walker, Ray generated a 32.1 K% and 6.7 BB% on his way to the 2021 AL Cy Young Award with Toronto.

Second, despite the high BB%, Cease’s 2025 K-BB% was 19.9%, which ranked 24th among the 166 starters with at least 60 innings. Valdez and Suárez ranked 69th and 40th, respectively. Therefore, Cease’s higher K-BB% would be attractive to a team like the Blue Jays that seeks a high K% (net of BB%) from their starters.

Concerning K% and BB%, a final comment. Table 3 shows that, in terms of average innings per 2025 start, Valdez and Suárez had noticeably longer outings than Cease. A likely reason for Cease’s shorter outings was his average of 4.23 pitches-per-plate appearance (“P/PA”). The P/PA marks of Valdez and Suárez were 3.61 and 3.74, respectively. There are two likely reasons for Cease’s higher P/PA.

First, one cause could be his high K%. According to Baseball Savant, in 2025, among the 170 starters who faced at least 250 batters, Cease had the 10th-highest K%. Notably, seven of these 10 starters had P/PA rates above the median (3.88). Second, of the 25 starters with the highest BB% (Cease was #24), 19 had P/PA numbers higher than the median. Accordingly, given Cease’s higher K% and BB% rates, we should expect shorter outings from Cease compared to Valdez and Suárez. I guess Toronto can accept shorter outings, given all the other positives Cease brings to the table. Yet, if Walker can work his magic with Cease, a lower BB% should lead to longer outings.

Another element of Cease’s performance is his ability to positively contribute to controlling the running game. A hat tip to Sportsnet’s Chris Black (@DownToBlack) for highlighting Cease’s effectiveness in this area. During the 2022-2025 period, according to Baseball Savant, Cease ranked second in Net Bases Prevented (“NBP”) with a score of 25. Valdez (-14) was 482nd of 503 pitchers, and Suárez (8) was 60th.

This past season, Toronto’s pitchers (starters and relievers) generated a -11 NBP, which ranked 22nd. Among Toronto’s notable starters in 2025, Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt each posted -5 NBPs, Eric Lauer a -3, and Max Scherzer a -2. Bowden Francis and José Berríos had +3 NBPs, and Shane Bieber posted +1. Therefore, Toronto’s addition of Cease should improve the team's effectiveness at limiting the running game of other teams more than either Valdez or Suárez. 

The Last Word
When the free agency period commenced this offseason, Cease, Valdez, and Suárez were at the top of the class. All three starters have produced excellent FIP-, xERA, and Pitching+ numbers in their careers.

Yet, it is understandable why Toronto would prefer Cease over Valdez and Suárez. Compared to Valdez, Cease is two years younger; has better K%, K-BB%, and Whiff% numbers; and is superior at neutralizing the running game. Judged against Suárez, Cease has been more durable; has a better K%, K-BB%, and Whiff% profile; and has proven more effective at controlling the running game. It is clear why Cease stood above Valdez and Suárez in the eyes of the Blue Jays. 

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