The Blue Jays and the No-Bo Scenario

[Jim Scott]

Bo Bichette brings a lot to the table.  He led the AL in hits in 2021 and 2022, and would likely have done so again in 2025 had he not been injured (he finished the year with 181 hits to Bobby Witt Jr.’s league-leading 184).  But there are negatives.  His baserunning has been negative for the last three years, and his fielding at shortstop has been very poor.  In 2025, his DRS of -12 and OAA of -13 were both dead last among the 22 qualified shortstops.  As a result, despite an excellent 134 wRC+ in 2025, Bo only recorded a 3.8 fWAR.

It is possible (probable?) that Bichette could move to second or third base?  Doing so would hopefully improve the poor fielding numbers he put up as a shortstop.  But it is unlikely that this would dramatically increase his fWAR, as the positional adjustment for second or third is substantially lower than that for shortstop.  And many writers speculate that Bo strongly prefers to remain at short and would make that a condition of any new contract.

So, what would happen if Bo Bichette were to sign elsewhere?  Here are a few scenarios.

1.  The Internal Options

Suppose, as a worst-case scenario, the Jays are unable to sign or trade for any position players and are accordingly required to backfill for Bichette using only internal options. 

Assume for this exercise that Andrés Giménez remains at shortstop in 2026.  Giménez is projected to have a 95 wRC+ in 2026 (per Steamer) – roughly the same as the 96 he put up in 2023 while playing second base for Cleveland.  If we assume that his level of defense at short is equivalent to what it was at second (he *was* a Platinum Glove winner!), then the only difference in his fWAR should be the difference in the positional adjustment, which equates to roughly 1.0 fWAR.  So, his 2026 fWAR could be his 2023 fWAR plus one, or 4.8.  The highest FanGraphs projection for Bichette in 2026 (playing shortstop) is 4.0.  So, taking both offense and defense into consideration, Giménez at short could be roughly a 1.0-fWAR upgrade on Bichette in 2026.

But moving Giménez to short creates an opening at second base.  Giménez at second could still be expected to produce over 3.0 fWAR.  To replace that, Toronto has two options.  The first is Davis Schneider.  In 2025, “Babe” put up a 1.3 fWAR despite only having 227 plate appearances.  Keeping up that pace over 600 PA would have given him 3.4 fWAR.  But Schneider was used primarily against left-handed pitching in 2025 – 56% of his PA were against lefties, even though left-handers only comprise roughly 30% of MLB pitchers.  Schneider had a 106 wRC+ against lefties in 2025, but a 155 against righties.  Playing a full year, with ~70% of his at-bats against right-handed pitching, could raise his fWAR even further, presuming he maintains those reverse platoon splits.

And then there is Ernie Clement.  Clement only played 423 innings at second base in 2025, but if you extrapolate his +10 DRS to a DRS/1350 (or his +6 OAA to an OAA/400), he was the best fielding second baseman in baseball.  (As an aside, DRS/1350 is DRS extrapolated to a full season of 1350 defensive innings, and OAA/400 is similarly OAA extrapolated to a full season of 400 defensive attempts.)  True, he only had a 98 wRC+, but even so, he earned a 3.2 fWAR.  And if you believe that his outstanding playoff performance was an epiphany rather than a blip, a 2026 fWAR of 4.0+ is not out of the question.

And the scary thing about Clement is that, as holy-cow-Batman as his defense is at second base, his defense at third is just as good.  In 603 innings at third base in 2025, his +11 DRS (+25 DRS/1350) and +7 OAA (+11 OAA/400) would both have been top-three in the majors over a full season.  So, if Schneider is playing second, Clement should be able to put up a similar 3.0-4.0 fWAR at third.  But Clement is not the Jays’ only option.  Addison Barger had a 125 wRC+ in the first half of 2025 before regressing to an 87 in the second half.  He struggled against left-handed pitching with a 69 wRC+ but had a strong 125 against righties.  And Barger’s underlying metrics give cause for optimism.  His average exit velocity was 91.7 mph (compared to Alex Bregman's 90.1), his hard-hit percentage was 51% (again, for context, Bregman's was 44.4%), and his barrels/PA was 7.8% (Bregman's was 4.8%).  And, like Clement, Barger had an excellent postseason with a .367/.441/.583 slash line and a 188 wRC+.  Defensively, Barger had a +1 DRS and a zero OAA at third base in 2025 – not exceptional, but more than adequate.  So, Barger is a strong breakout candidate for 2026.

The Jays could also play Barger in right field.  Or, if he is playing third (and cloning technology is not sufficiently advanced), Toronto could go with Nathan Lukes in right. In his 441 innings in right field in 2025, Lukes had a +21 DRS/1350 and a +13 OAA/400, both of which would be elite.  He is projected (per Steamer) for a 109 wRC+ in 2026.  A 109 wRC+ with elite defense in right field could translate to an fWAR in the 3.0-4.0 range over a full season. 

So, a (worst-case) purely internal fix could have Schneider/Clement at second, Giménez at short, Clement/Barger at third and Barger/Lukes in right, with the very real potential to have 3.0+ fWAR at every one of those positions.  Not bad for a fallback option!

2.  The Jays sign Kyle Tucker

If the Jays sign Tucker, the uncertainty about who plays right field goes away in a hurry.  That likely pushes Barger to third (which is his better fielding position anyway) and Clement to second, potentially making Schneider and Lukes trade candidates for pitching upgrades.

3.  The Jays trade for Ketel Marte

If the Jays traded for Marte, it would likely push Clement to third and Barger to right.  Again, Lukes and Schneider would become either valuable bench contributors or enticing trade pieces (if they were not included in the Marte deal itself).

4.  The Jays sign Alex Bregman

I am not a big fan of signing aging third basemen, particularly to contracts that take them into their late 30s.  And, as noted above, Barger’s underlying hit metrics in 2025 were stronger than Bregman’s, so his upside is arguably higher at this point in Bregman’s career.  But if the Jays *did* sign Bregman, it would likely push Barger to right field and leave Clement and Schneider competing for second base.

The Bottom Line
The Jays are in a very favourable position going into 2026.  Not only do they have multiple young players with high upside, but those players have positional flexibility.  That flexibility not only creates opportunities for the current roster but also for free agent signings and trades.  And as a wise baseball philosopher once said, it can be more valuable to make options than to make plans.

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[Spanky__99]

I believe the Jays match Bo's best offer and sign him for 2B, it has to happen.