Another Closing Option for the Blue Jays To Consider

[Jim Scott]

The Jays enter the 2025-26 offseason in pretty good shape. Their 2025 offense was excellent; the Jays' team wRC+ of 112 was fourth in baseball, and their FangGraphs Off (a measure of overall offense) was fifth. And this was despite losing Anthony Santander for effectively the entire year, and Daulton Varsho (and his holy-cow-Batman .310 ISO) for half the year. They were no slouches on defence, either. Their FangGraphs Def (a measure of overall defence) of 38.7 was the best in baseball, despite Bo Bichette's struggles at shortstop (his -13 Outs Above Average were tied for last in the majors at any position). On top of that, Shane Bieber’s surprising opt-in gives the Jays a current rotation of Bieber, Kevin Gausman, Trey Yesavage, José Berríos, and Eric Lauer. They're possibly only one more solid starter and a swingman away from being ready for 2026.

Which brings us to the bullpen. The bullpen's 3.98 ERA was 16th in MLB in 2025, and their 3.2 fWAR was 18th.  To be fair, this was partly due to injuries. Yimi García had a 2.70 ERA (2.21 xERA) in 2024 and was Toronto’s primary setup man before he was traded. In 2025, a combination of injuries and August surgery limited him to 21 innings. Similarly, Nick Sandlin (right elbow inflammation) pitched only 16 innings, and Erik Swanson (who had a brilliant 2023) dealt with a median nerve entrapment in training camp and was ultimately cut. These injuries forced the Jays to make some difficult decisions – as my colleague Bob Ritchie noted in August:

"One aspect of [Jeff] Hoffman’s usage is that he has, on five occasions, pitched four times in five days. In 2025, [Josh] Hader has not pitched four times in five days. … [Aroldis] Chapman has pitched four times in five days on two occasions. Hence, Hoffman’s concentrated usage over five days is unusual."

In 2026, the Jays should benefit from a healthy García and a full season of Louis Varland. Even so, upgrading the back end of the bullpen should be a priority for the front office this offseason. Not surprisingly, this has led to the Jays being linked to almost every top free agent reliever – including Edwin Díaz and Raisel Iglesias. Devin Williams and Robert Suarez are two more names that have come up in plenty of fan speculation. But the competition for those arms might be intense, raising the price and the risk (giving term to a reliever is always dangerous). Might there be a better option?

Suppose there were a reliever with extensive closing experience (75 saves in the last three years, seven more than Williams). And suppose he had a save conversion percentage (saves divided by save opportunities) of 86% – higher than Díaz’s 83%. And suppose he would be pitching in 2026 at age 32 – three years younger than Suarez and four years younger than Iglesias. And (are you tired of supposing yet?) imagine that he is projected to cost only $18 million on a two-year contract – less than half the term and AAV expected for Díaz?

Let’s talk about Pete Fairbanks.

We can start with the red flags. In 2022 and 2023, Fairbanks’ fastball averaged over 99 mph, with a Stuff+ in the 140 range (in 2022, the stuff+ of 152 on his fastball was second in the majors). As a result, his K/9 was a stellar 13.5. But, as the saying goes, that was then. His velocity and Stuff+ have declined steadily, with the result that in 2025, his velocity was 97 mph and his K/9 was “only” 8.80. 

There are also injury concerns. Fairbanks’ 60 innings pitched in 2025 were a career high – the most he had ever pitched before was 45.1 innings. These concerns are likely why Tampa Bay did not pick up his $11 million option for 2026, and why they were unable to trade him to a team that would.

But let’s examine those concerns, starting with the fastball. Three points to consider:

1. Despite the decline in fastball velocity, Fairbanks still put up a 2.83 ERA (3.00 xERA) in 2025. For comparison, Jeff Hoffman had a 4.37 ERA and a 3.91 xERA, while Williams posted a 4.79/3.07 and Suarez a 2.97/3.67.
    
2. Stop me if you’ve heard this one: A pitcher has lost 2 mph on his fastball and is struggling. He joins Toronto, and with the help of an excellent pitching coach and his team, miraculously regains his mojo and his velo, going on to an uber season. Am I talking about Robbie Ray in 2021 or Pete Fairbanks in 2026?
    
3. Finally, Fairbanks started experimenting with a cut fastball in September of 2024. He only threw it 42 times, so the usual small sample size caveats apply. But what was his opponents’ batting average against it? Zero. And how did his Stuff+ rating of 141 for that pitch compare to other pitchers in MLB throwing cutters? Best in baseball (Emmanuel Clase was second with a Stuff+ of 122).

Bottom line, Fairbanks is doing just fine with the fastball, and he has crazy-high upside.

Now let’s talk about the injuries. It is entirely valid to worry that Fairbanks’ injury record makes him too high-risk to be a solo #1 closer. But as a 1A, working with Hoffman (and possibly García, who has 29 career saves), the expectation should not be for him to pitch so many innings. And remember – Fairbanks pitched 60 innings in 2025. None of the tier one free agent closers pitched as many as 70 (Díaz pitched 66.1, Suarez 69.2, Iglesias 67.1, and Williams 62).

The Bottom Line
Pete Fairbanks offers an ideal combination of strong recent production and extreme upside. He would hugely enhance the Jays’ bullpen, at a moderate cost and term. The Jays could sign him now, and then, if an elite closer became available on a one-year pillow contract later in the offseason, Toronto could still consider forming its own version of the KC “three-headed monster.”

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[Joltin Joe]

If Jays was interested in Fairbanks why didn't they acquire him from Tampa and pick up his option

[Jim Scott]

13 minutes ago, Joltin Joe said:

If Jays was interested in Fairbanks why didn't they acquire him from Tampa and pick up his option

I wonder if Tampa were unwilling to trade Pete to a division rival without a major payback ... and whether the Jays were not keen to sign him for a single year @ $11m?

[Terminator]

44 minutes ago, Joltin Joe said:

If Jays was interested in Fairbanks why didn't they acquire him from Tampa and pick up his option

The inverse is also true. Why give the Rays something when you can turn around and sign him (or a comparable talent) in FA for similar terms to what his option would have been? 

That way you won't get tarred and feathered when the Rays take an 18 year old lotto ticket off your hands who turns into a 3 WAR player

[Joltin Joe]

50 minutes ago, Terminator said:

The inverse is also true. Why give the Rays something when you can turn around and sign him (or a comparable talent) in FA for similar terms to what his option would have been? 

That way you won't get tarred and feathered when the Rays take an 18 year old lotto ticket off your hands who turns into a 3 WAR player

Way the article talked Tampa would have traded him just to save the million dollar buyout

[Spanky__99]

1 hour ago, Joltin Joe said:

Way the article talked Tampa would have traded him just to save the million dollar buyout

Where does it say that in the article? Tampa declined his 11M dollar option, it's simple as that, they're cheap.

[SeranthonySantander]

1 hour ago, Joltin Joe said:

Way the article talked Tampa would have traded him just to save the million dollar buyout

They didn’t want him, they paid the $1m.  Sure they could have taken the option and traded him, but it’s possible there is no takers at that contract value and the rays risk losing money.

Maybe the rays decided to do a nice thing and let him pick his team as well, after giving them 7 good years there.