How Much Can the Blue Jays Spend This Winter?

[Leo Morgenstern]

The Blue Jays ran a record-high payroll in 2025. According to Cot’s Contracts, their final commitment came in just over $254 million, and just under $279 million for luxury tax purposes. Only four teams, the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies, spent more. Toronto’s payroll estimates from RosterResource were a little higher ($258 million and $283 million, respectively), but the overarching point remains: The Blue Jays spent more money on player salaries in 2025 than ever before. And it worked.

That record-high payroll carried the Jays to their most successful season in more than thirty years. Now, just days after that magical season came to a disappointing close, it's already time to talk about what the payroll will look like in 2026. 

The Blue Jays have a good deal of money coming off the books this winter, with Chris Bassitt ($22M), Bo Bichette ($17.6M), Max Scherzer ($15.5M), Seranthony Domínguez, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ty France (about $4M combined) hitting free agency. Shane Bieber (about $3M) will presumably join them. (Scratch that!) Others like Chad Green ($10.5M), Erik Swanson ($3M), and Spencer Turnbull ($1M), who Toronto cut earlier in the season, have also collected their final paychecks from the Blue Jays organization.

Several players still under contract are due raises in 2026, which will cancel out some of the savings from those expiring contracts. The biggest raise (almost $12 million) is for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., whose 14-year, $500 million extension officially kicks in next year. Andrés Giménez ($5M raise), Jeff Hoffman ($5M), Alejandro Kirk ($4.1M), Anthony Santander ($3M), and Myles Straw ($1M) will also earn pay bumps, as will arbitration candidates Eric Lauer (estimated $2.6M raise), Ernie Clement ($2.33M), Daulton Varsho ($1.5M) Nick Sandlin ($370K), and Tyler Heineman ($219K).

So, RosterResource currently estimates a $219 million payroll for the Blue Jays in 2026 – $39 million below their final figure from 2025. However, keep in mind, that $219 million figure uses the estimated arbitration salaries from MLB Trade Rumors and presumes the Jays will tender contracts to both Sandlin and Ryan Burr, which is no guarantee. My guess is they’ll keep Sandlin and non-tender Burr, so I’ll go with that for the sake of this article. 

Subtracting Burr would bring the RosterResource estimate down by about one million. But that total doesn’t line up with my own calculations, which I came to using the individual numbers from RosterResource. The sum of all of Toronto’s guaranteed contracts on RosterResource is about $201.9 million. Add another $21.4 million for arbitration salaries, and you get $223.3 million. Combine that with RosterResource’s estimated $12.5 million for pre-arb salaries, and the total is just under $236 million. The difference between $236 and $218 million is a lot more than just chump change; that's a mid-rotation starter right there. 

As for the luxury tax, the Blue Jays either finished just above or just below the third tier of penalties in 2025, depending on whose estimate you look at. Next year, the third threshold climbs to $284 million. If RosterResource is correct, the Blue Jays have more than $50 million of room before they hit that point. Though in truth, I think they have a bit less to play with than RosterResource suggests.  

Thankfully, the exact numbers probably don't matter all that much. The Blue Jays proved in 2025 that they have the resources to be one of the top spenders in the sport, and that was before they made it to the World Series. Rogers earned a ton of extra revenue this October – almost half the country tuned in to Game 7 at one point or another – and they should have every incentive to pour that money back into the team. (It's almost as if spending money on talented players is good for business. Who could have guessed?)

So, Ross Atkins and his front office really should have all the flexibility they need this winter as they work to re-sign Bichette, replenish the rotation, and upgrade the bullpen in an effort to build an even stronger contender in 2026. It might take another record-high payroll, but that shouldn't be a problem – ownership can and should make it happen.   

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[mphenhef]

For luxury tax purposes, Vlad is only adding about 7 million to his count this year,  In terms of real money, he won't be more expensive either as a $20 million signing bonus was given in 2025.

[Leo Morgenstern]

1 hour ago, mphenhef said:

For luxury tax purposes, Vlad is only adding about 7 million to his count this year,  In terms of real money, he won't be more expensive either as a $20 million signing bonus was given in 2025.

Great point. Although different sources seem to have different ideas about the exact yearly breakdown of what Vladdy is earning.

This Sportsnet article from April suggests he's only earning a $13M signing bonus and $17M salary (total $30M), which would actually be significantly less than he made in 2025 ($28.5M salary + $20M signing bonus). But RosterResource says he's making $40.2M in 2026. 

It's all complicated, but ultimately, I'm just glad we can come back to that idea that ownership won't be hand-wringing over dollars and cents for next year's payroll. Hopefully, there's quite a bit of money freed up from last year, but even if there isn't, the FO should be aggressive. 

[Rimar]

Also Blue Jays can use deffered money to sign stars players.