Blue Jays-Dodgers World Series Game 6: Back Home With a Chance To Be Heroes

[Mike LeSage]

It's Game 6 in Toronto, and the Jays have a chance to win it all. I’ll be tracking their win probability and key plays by inning.

Pre-Game - Win Probability: 50%
Devon White with the first pitch to Nathan Lukes is perfect. Matt Trueblood wrote about him earlier in the week, and it was nice to see him out there as always. White was my favourite player for his time with Toronto from ‘91-’95. A hype video narrated by Eugene Levy has me ready to run through a brick wall. Let's get to the action!

First Inning - Win Probability: 50%
Shohei Ohtani leads off as usual. Kevin Gausman is equal to the task and sits Ohtani down with a strikeout. Will Smith, same story, swinging strikeout. Freddie Freeman? You get one too. Gausman goes three-up, three-down and looks like the best version of himself.

George Springer starts things off for the home side, returning to the lineup after missing Games 4 and 5 following his early exit from Game 3 with an oblique injury. He looks to be in significant discomfort after a pair of swinging strikes and ultimately grounds out. Lukes reaches first on a Max Muncy error (gotta keep your eyes on the ball!), but the inning ends on a Vladimir Guerrero Jr. GIDP. Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks good, but beatable.

Second Inning - Win Probability: 50%
Gausman is cruising early. Two quick strikes on Mookie Betts ends with a groundout to Ernie Clement. Teoscar Hernández logs his eighth strikeout of the WS – this one on three pitches, ending with the splitter. Muncy works a seven-pitch at-bat but meets the same fate: a swinging strikeout on the splitter. Gausman at 32 pitches through two.

Bo Bichette, back playing second base tonight, leads off the bottom half of the inning and gives Yamamoto his first strikeout of the game. Daulton Varsho pops out softly to the infield, and Alejandro Kirk follows that with a popout of his own to shallow CF. Yamamoto is at 27 pitches through two.

Third Inning - Win Probability: 26.4%
Gausman gets a favourable call against Kiké Hernández and logs his sixth strikeout of the game. Tommy Edman doubles on a hard line drive straight up the right field line and brings up the #9 hitter, Miguel Rojas. Rojas is playing second base and getting his first start of the series as Dave Roberts continues to shuffle the bottom of his order. Rojas is called out on strikes, and after his first time through the order, Gausman has K’d 7 of 9 hitters. 

With first base open and two outs, Ohtani gets the four-finger free base. Smith hits a ball into the left field corner, and the Dodgers score the first run of the game (-13.2% WPA). Freeman draws a walk to load the bases, and the cold-as-ice Betts comes to the plate. Betts gets a clutch hit that splits Clement and Andrés Giménez and drives in a pair (-16% WPA). 3-0 Dodgers. Teoscar goes down swinging to end the inning and stop the bleeding.

Addison Barger leads the charge in the bottom half with a double to start the comeback. Clement would strike out and Giménez would ground out with the next two at-bats, but Barger advanced to third. Springer would bring Barger home with a single on a 3-0 pitch (+7.8% WPA). Lukes hit a fly out to end the inning, but the Jays got one back. 3-1 Dodgers.

Fourth Inning - Win Probability: 24.2%
After a long third inning where he faced eight batters, Gausman gets a nice, efficient inning, with a groundout and two popouts to retire the side (Muncy, Kiké and Edman) on nine pitches. He’s at 67 pitches total.

Yamamoto paints the edges of the zone to start the inning off with a Guerrero strikeout. Bichette hits a single, but is quickly erased as Varsho hits into the second GIDP of the game for Toronto. Yamamoto is at 58 pitches.

Fifth Inning - Win Probability: 21.4%
Rojas flies out to Barger, and Ohtani comes to the plate with one out. This at-bat is a battle. Gausman throws nine pitches to Ohtani and eventually forces a groundout to Vladdy at first. Smith hits one hard, but Lukes is able to make the out and end the inning.

Kirk leads off the Jays’ half of the inning and has a nine-pitch battle of his own, ending in a strikeout. Barger up next is called out on a borderline strike with a full count, which we’ll want to check the umpire scorecard on tomorrow. Clement singles on a ball that Betts gets to but can’t field cleanly. The threat ends on the next pitch with a Giménez lineout. Yamamoto is up to 75 pitches, while Louis Varland is warming in our ‘pen.

Sixth Inning - Win Probability: 17.8%
Gausman worked another efficient inning. A popout and two groundouts (Freeman, Betts, Teoscar), but he’s up to 93 pitches, and that might be the end of his day. If it is, it’s a quality start, and we just need the bats to come around.

Springer grounds out on the first pitch he sees, and then, after a costumed-streaker delay, Lukes flies out to centre. Guerrero hits a double to the left field wall and (hopefully) starts a two-out rally. Bichette follows that up with a walk to put the potential tying run at first and bring Varsho to the plate. The best pitch Varsho saw was the first one, but he was a fraction off and fouled it away. He would go down swinging on a splitter out of the zone. Still 3-1 Dodgers.

Seventh Inning - Win Probability: 13.1%
Gausman’s day is officially over, and who else could it be but Louis Varland, first out of the ‘pen and making his 14th appearance of the postseason, tying the MLB record for playoff appearances by a pitcher. Varland quickly moved to the top of the pitch velocity chart and got Muncy and Edman to fly out with a strikeout of Kiké Hernández in between. Hernández was absolutely frozen on a middle-middle fastball that he was not expecting.

Maybe a little bit surprisingly, the Dodgers lift Yamamoto in favour of Justin Wrobleski. So far, it looks like an okay call, as he quickly gets a strikeout of Kirk and a Barger groundout. Clement gets a two-out double to bring Giménez up. Giménez battled for eight pitches but ultimately went down on strikes and left Clement stranded.

Eighth Inning - Win Probability: 7.2%
Varland gets Rojas to fly out for the first out of the inning and gives way to Mason Fluharty. It’s now the fifth time Fluharty and Ohtani have gone head-to-head. Ohtani gets the better of this encounter with a double to left-center on a ball down and out of the zone (Statcast flags this as a would-be homer at Dodger Stadium). An intentional walk to Smith brings Freeman to bat with one out and two on. A fly out to Barger will end Fluharty’s day, as he makes way for Seranthony Domínguez to face Betts. Seranthony doesn’t get Betts to chase anything out of the zone and issues a walk to load the bases for Teoscar Hernández. A tough day for Hernández continues with another strikeout, ending the threat again and keeping the score 3-1.

Roki Sasaki comes in to face the top of the Jays' order. I don’t want to get ahead of myself, but if the plan is for Sasaki to close out the game, I don’t know who might be next out of the Dodgers’ bullpen if he falters. Springer fights off a splitter to start the inning with a single. Lukes flies out, and Guerrero walks to bring up Bichette, representing the go-ahead run. He would pop out into foul territory on a ball that *just* stayed in play. Varsho got a splitter in the middle of the zone but hit it right at the second baseman to end the inning.

Ninth Inning - Win Probability: 0%
Chris Bassitt comes in and shuts down the Dodgers, striking out the first two he faces (Muncy and Kiké) and then inducing a groundout from Edman to bring the Jays to the bottom of the ninth, needing two runs to tie.

Things started rolling with Kirk taking a ball off the hands and leaving the game for Myles Straw as a pinch runner. Barger was next up and absolutely unloaded on a fastball that traveled 386 feet before landing right at the base of the wall and coming to an immediate stop. Straw and Barger both came around to cross the plate before checking to see how the umps called it. The wedged ball is ruled a ground-rule double (+25.8% WPA), and the baserunners return. The Jays had runners at second and third with none out. And then it was over, just like that. Clement popped out on the first pitch he saw. Then Giménez lined out to left field, and Barger took one step too far towards third and got doubled off to end the game. 

The Dodgers went down in order seven of nine times, and ultimately, the only runs were scored in the third inning. The Jays went 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and will need that to turn around if they expect to be champions tonight.

Now, it’s all eyes on Game 7. Max Scherzer is locked in to start for the Jays. Dave Roberts, in post-game remarks, wasn’t tipping his hand yet on who will start for the Dodgers, only going far enough to say it wouldn’t be Yamamoto. One game left in the season, everything on the line, and I still like our chances. 

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