Article: How Can Shane Bieber Succeed Against the Mariners?

[Matthew Creally]

Baseball happens fast. One day, the Toronto Blue Jays were celebrating sweet victory over the game's Evil Empire in the ALDS, and not even a week later, they're embarking on a road trip to Seattle with no guarantee of returning to save their season. The odds and recent history of teams coming back after losing the first two games of a best-of-seven series at home have been an exhaustive part of the discourse surrounding this club lately, so let's look ahead to Game 3 – a contest that would change the dynamic of the ALCS with a Blue Jays win.

The man leading this mission is Shane Bieber, who enjoyed a solid initial return from Tommy John surgery and made seven starts for Toronto down the stretch. His lone start in the ALDS, however, was not good; he allowed three runs (two earned) on five hits, recording two strikeouts and a walk in 2.2 innings, taking 54 pitches to get there. Unfortunately, the box score doesn't quite do it justice because nine of the 12 balls in play Bieber surrendered went down as hard-hit. That's 75%! Only four of those 12 batted balls stayed on the ground, and three of them came off the bat at 104 mph or harder. The Yankees timed him up and knocked him around, getting to the bullpen early and winning 9-6 as a result. Bieber's teammates picked him up, as he did for them a couple times late this past summer, and won the series, giving him his biggest chance yet to earn some goodwill among a fanbase that has crashed back down to earth.

During his media availability before Game 2 against the Mariners, Bieber said he felt good about his outing in New York from an execution standpoint, essentially saying the ball went where he wanted it to out of his hand. His stuff was fine, with the velocity of all his pitches clocking in slightly above normal and the carry of his fastball remaining sufficient, all good signs for someone coming off a long-term injury. Still, whether he was properly executing is up for debate. Bieber knows himself better than any of us do, and when an accomplished big league pitcher prides himself on his execution in a start that didn't go his way less than 48 hours before the biggest outing of his life, I'm inclined to take his word for it. Regardless, the signs weren't all encouraging.

One of Bieber's post-surgery adjustments was the introduction of a kick changeup. It registered six more inches of drop than his previous version of the pitch while maintaining high-80s velocity, and it scored as his best offering according to Stuff+ (103, per FanGraphs). He threw 11 such changeups in Game 3 of the ALDS, and none of them resulted in a called strike or swing and miss. Just three of them were in the strike zone at all; he kept missing up and away to lefties, and two of the ones he zoned left the bat at 104 mph. His fastball fared better, living in the zone far more consistently and leading to some called strikes, but it, too, was hit hard (93 mph AVG EV on 7 BIP). Against lefties, Bieber usually lives on the upper corners of the zone with his heater, while painting the whole outer half against righties. It missed over the plate, both up and down, quite a bit to New York's lefty hitters and sometimes ran in on their righties. The righties and lefties alike jumped on the changes in location.

The most important thing Bieber needs to do at T-Mobile Park in Game 3 of this series is get his changeup back in order. It misses bats and generates groundballs more than any other pitch in his arsenal. The Mariners have three home runs from the left side so far in the ALCS, and when Bieber's changeup is on, it can neutralize any lefty. Look for him to throw this pitch down in the zone more often than he did in his last start, out of harm's way but close enough for Seattle to chase. The head-to-head matchup with the switch-hitting Jorge Polanco is particularly intriguing here. He has been hitting out of his mind for the past few days, and his swing from the left side is flatter than average and quicker than his righty swing, which gives him an ideal profile to square up fastballs in the zone but not pitches diving away from him. He also had a swing-and-miss rate just under 40% against changeups and splitters in 2025. This pitch will be key to taking the wind out of the sails of Polanco, as well as Cal Raleigh (who will hit left-handed vs Bieber) and Josh Naylor.

Another strategy to watch out for is Bieber's deployment of his cutter. It was only a secondary pitch for him in the regular season, and not one of his main ones either, but he still used it between 10 and 15% of the time to both sides of the plate, especially early in counts. He located it on the outside half of the plate in both platoon matchups, and while opponents frequently sprayed it for line drives, it had the lowest average exit velocity of any pitch in his repertoire. However, it got lost in the shuffle during his last regular season start. He only threw four cutters in that game, and in his ALDS outing, he did away with it entirely, not using it at all at Yankee Stadium.

Whether he has simply lost feel for it in recent weeks or this is part of a more deliberate plan of attack is tough to say, but if he's able, it might serve him to use it now. For all the excellence that Raleigh displayed at the plate this year, he hit just .190 when facing cutters, the only pitch type he had a negative run value against. Raleigh's heatmaps show a pronounced power outage on pitches up and in, which would be the natural path of Bieber's cutter if he elevates it on him. Relatively speaking, cutters gave Julio Rodríguez even more fits; he posted a light .115 batting average and .308 slugging percentage against them, striking out nearly 30% of the time on a pitch that isn't designed for swing-and-miss. Rodríguez can do damage and swings very hard, but he chases a lot and doesn't make much contact, making the cutter a logical option to disrupt his timing. There might not be a better time for the cutter to make a return to Bieber's game plan.

It should not have taken this long for Seattle to start receiving recognition for how balanced their lineup is. They struck out at a virtually identical clip to the Yankees while hitting for fewer home runs during the regular season, but their 113 wRC+ placed third in MLB. They were top-five in bat speed this year as well, and looking at their lineup hitter by hitter clearly shows why they're dangerous. Their biggest contributors this series (Raleigh, Polanco, Naylor, and Rodríguez) are all guys who can make pitchers pay for a mistake fastball. Raleigh and Rodríguez often go big-game hunting, while Polanco and Naylor are more balanced with fewer holes in their approach. Meanwhile, the guys who have taken more of a backseat this series (Randy Arozarena, Eugenio Suárez, Dominic Canzone) crush secondaries in the zone. If Bieber hangs a slider to any of those hitters, it's likely ending up in the seats. 

In sum, this is a group that will require Bieber to stay on his toes and change his strategy with every hitter. Their combination of power guys, contact guys, steep swings, flat swings, fastball mashers, and off-speed/breaking-ball hunters is a tall task for any opponent. If Shane Bieber can rediscover his changeup, refine his fastball location compared to his last outing, and even mix in a few cutters to throw off the middle of the order, he should give the Jays a decent shot at getting themselves back in this series.

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