Article: Blue Jays-Mariners ALCS Game 2: Is This How the Yankees Felt?

[Mike LeSage]

In a seven-game series, they say you aren’t in trouble until you lose one at home. Well, now the Jays have dropped two at home and head to Seattle looking to: 1. Avoid the sweep. 2. Force a return to Toronto, and 3. Win the damned series. Long odds to be sure, but this Jays team has been counted out before and defied expectations. It’s not over ‘til it’s over and whatever other cliches you need to grab onto to get us through until Wednesday night. Twenty-nine teams have lost the first two games of a best-of-seven at home, and only four times have they come back to win. The Jays will look to make that five. Until then, let’s review Game 2.

The umpire should never be the story of the game, and he wasn’t here, but Doug Eddings will get a mention. His questionable strike zone cost Trey Yesavage an out on leadoff batter, Randy Arozarena. Eddings had some bad calls go the Jays' way, too, so I’m not saying the fix was in, I’m just saying he’s bad at his job. Regardless, Arozarena ended up on first base after an HBP and then moved up to second after a walk to Cal Raleigh. Julio Rodríguez then took a splitter that stayed up in the zone and knocked it out of the park (-18% WPA). 3-0 Mariners before an out was recorded. Yesavage would record three strikeouts to get out of the inning, but it wasn’t the start we had hoped for.

The Jays would scrap back two runs in the bottom of the frame. George Springer led things off for the home side with a double (+5.5% WPA). Then it was Nathan Lukes, back in the lineup and batting second after fouling a ball off his kneecap in the first inning yesterday. His single scored Springer (+9.2% WPA), and then he advanced to second on a throwing error. After advancing the third on a groundout by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Lukes would score on a single by Alejandro Kirk (+8.5% WPA). 3-2 Mariners.

Yesavage would retire the Mariners in order in the 2nd inning, and the Jays would tie the game up on another Luke's RBI single, this time cashing Ernie Clement (+11.2% WPA). 3-3 ballgame going into the 3rd inning.

Unlike Game 1, the Mariners would be the first to make a call to the bullpen with starter Logan Gilbert being replaced by Eduard Bazardo after three innings. Yesavage would get four innings before being replaced by Louis Varland. From here, the ‘pens would diverge critically.

The first four Toronto pitchers out of the ‘pen would all be responsible for at least one earned run. Varland, Mason Fluharty, Braydon Fisher, and Yariel Rodríguez would be on the hook for, in order: a 3-run home run to Jorge Polanco (-28.2% WPA), an RBI single to J.P. Crawford (-2.8% WPA), a Josh Naylor two-run home run (-3.8% WPA) and then three consecutive walks to load the bases. Chris Bassitt and Eric Lauer had scoreless appearances to close out the game (Bassitt allowed one of Rodríguez’s inherited walks to score via sac fly), but by that point, it was out of reach.

The Seattle bullpen, on the other hand, would use Bazardo, Carlos Vargas, and Emerson Hancock, getting two innings each and combining to throw six innings of one-hit shutout ball. Toronto earned a reputation in the New York series of working counts and getting to the opposing bullpen to do some damage, but the Mariners ‘pen is a different beast. Over the first two games, the Jays have seen six relievers over nine innings and have managed just one hit. That is the biggest thing that needs to change if they hope to bring this series back from the West Coast.

Seattle took two out of three games at the Rogers Centre in the regular season. The Jays won all three games at T-Mobile Park, so we’re still well within the realm of possibility. The last time the Jays lost two games at home to start a playoff series was in 2015 against the Texas Rangers. Toronto came back to win three straight and take the series. They don’t need to win all the games at once; they just need to start with Shane Bieber’s start in Game 3 - first pitch Wednesday evening, 8:08 PM EST.

View full article