Article: ALCS Preview: The Blue Jays Take On the Mariners

[Leo Morgenstern]

The Blue Jays are going back to the ALCS. And now, finally, we know who will be standing between them and their first trip to the World Series since 1993. 

The Mariners beat the Tigers 3-2 on Friday night in a 15-inning marathon, despite the very best efforts of Tarik Skubal and Detroit's bullpen. After seven consecutive scoreless innings, J.P. Crawford singled in the bottom of the 15th. He moved up to second on a Randy Arozarena hit-by-pitch and tagged up to third on a Cal Raleigh fly out.

With first base open, the Tigers put Julio Rodríguez on first, and Jorge Polanco stepped to the plate. Three balls and two strikes later, the count was full, and Tommy Kahnle delivered the pitch. Polanco sent it sharply into right, and the Mariners mobbed the field. Now, however, a tougher challenge awaits them in their first ALCS since 2001: your Toronto Blue Jays.

Schedule of Games

• Game 1 – Sunday, Oct. 12 @ 8:03 pm (Rogers Centre)
• Game 2 – Monday, Oct. 13 @ 4:38 or 5:03 pm (Rogers Centre)
• Game 3 – Wednesday, Oct. 15 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park)
• Game 4 – Thursday, Oct. 16 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park)
• Game 5* – Friday, Oct. 17 @ TBD (T-Mobile Park)
• Game 6* – Sunday, Oct. 19 @ TBD (Rogers Centre)
• Game 7* – Monday, Oct. 20 @ TBD (Rogers Centre)

*If necessary

How Will the Blue Jays Set Up Their Rotation?
I’m not going to play the guessing game again. I goofed last time, miscounted the days, and guessed all the wrong matchups in my ALDS preview. This series is only going to be more complicated, considering George Kirby started for the Mariners on Friday and Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert ultimately had to come in to pitch the final innings in relief. 

So instead, I'm just going to talk through Toronto’s options to start in the ALCS. Kevin Gausman will take Game 1. That much is guaranteed. Then it’s Trey Yesavage and Shane Bieber, presumably for Games 2 and 3, and presumably in that order. 

Game 4 is where things get complicated. A bullpen game proved to be the right decision for the ALDS. But calling on the arm barn to do it again would be a big ask, and it could prove disastrous if John Schneider needs bulk from his bullpen earlier in the series.

So, what are the other options? Max Scherzer should be available, but it’s not clear if the Blue Jays trust him. Schneider said Scherzer probably would have made the ALDS roster if the Red Sox had advanced instead of the Yankees; the Jays didn’t like how he matched up with New York. I’m not 100% convinced that wasn’t just a white lie out of respect for the veteran, but even if it wasn’t, we can only wonder what the Jays think about how he matches up with Seattle.

Then there’s Chris Bassitt, who missed the final week of the regular season with low back inflammation. He pitched in the bye week intrasquad game but did not make the ALDS roster either, with Schneider claiming he wasn’t yet stretched out enough. Before Bassitt’s injury, I wrote about why I would pick him over Scherzer for a postseason start. I still stand by what I wrote. Specific matchups and health aside, I have more faith in Bassitt than Scherzer, given the way they both pitched down the stretch. But is it safe to presume Bassitt is back to full strength after another week to ramp up? 

Another point in Bassitt’s favour is that he might be better suited to pitch out of the bullpen if the Blue Jays decide mid-way through the series that they’d rather use a bullpen game instead of a more traditional fourth starter after all.

One more wrinkle to consider comes from MLB.com’s Keegan Matheson. He suggests that if the Blue Jays are going to try another bullpen game, they might prefer to do so in Games 3 or 5 instead of 4. That way, they’d have an off day either right before or right after. 

I see where Matheson is coming from, and I trust his insight into the team, but in this case, I’m not sure I agree.

If Gausman, Yesavage, and Bieber start the first three games of the series, they can also start Games 5 through 7. On the flip side, if the Blue Jays plan a bullpen game for Game 3, they would still need a fourth starter for a potential Game 7. If they plan a bullpen game for Game 5, they would still need a fourth starter for Game 4. 

Simply put, I don’t see the point of a bullpen game if it isn’t instead of a fourth starter.

The Bo Bichette of It All
Maybe I buried the lede here. The starting pitching question is interesting, but what everyone is really wondering is whether or not Bo Bichette will play in the ALCS. 

By all accounts, Bichette is making good progress recovering from his knee sprain. He says he’s optimistic. But he needs to be able to run the bases safely (and effectively) if he’s going to make the roster. We just don’t know if he’s there yet.

A fully healthy Bichette most likely takes Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s spot on the roster. But if Bichette can only DH, I wonder if he should really take Anthony Santander’s place instead.

Santander is 3-for-22 (.150/.227/.150) in September and October, and I don’t see how he’d have much more of a role than "late-inning pinch-hitter" if Bichette is DHing and George Springer has to play the outfield.

Meanwhile, without IKF, the Blue Jays would be pretty hampered in the infield if either Andrés Giménez or Ernie Clement were to suffer a mid-game injury, or if John Schneider wants to lift either of them for a pinch-hitter. So, it becomes a question of pinch-hitting upside versus defensive versatility. 

Let me be clear: This is my line of thought. It doesn’t seem like the Blue Jays are considering leaving Santander off the roster. Still, I think it’s an option worth keeping in mind.

Check back tomorrow for our full breakdown of how the Blue Jays match up with the Mariners on both sides of the ball.

View full article