Article: How Long Will the Blue Jays' Barger Blues Last?

[Bob Ritchie]

After spending the early part of the 2025 MLB season in Buffalo, Addison Barger earned a promotion to the MLB roster in April. Before August, Barger generated an impressive 123 wRC+ and a 0.241 isolated power (ISO) in 324 plate appearances. However, he struggled in August, as evidenced by his lacklustre 60 wRC+ and 0.136 ISO in 96 plate appearances. His August performance raises the obvious question: Is the real Barger the one from before August or the one from after July?

Naturally, there is a table in your future. Please take a look at Table 1. Before August, Barger posted striking numbers. His 0.505 SLG exceeded the MLB average by 101 points, and his xwOBA bettered the MLB average by 36 points. It is noteworthy that Barger’s pre-August batting was not fueled by good fortune, as evidenced by the positive xwOBA-wOBA difference. However, August was unkind to Barger. His xwOBA slipped to 0.289, and his SLG was 0.333, both marks below the MLB average. On the positive news front, Barger’s 22.9% strikeout rate (K%) declined from the pre-August 25.3%.

What has changed for Barger? Let us dig into the topic by considering the following areas:

• Plate appearances by count
• Pitch mix
• Plate discipline
• Batted ball direction
• Contact quality

Spoiler alert: The Barger blues should end.

Concerning the first four noted areas, please take a look at Table 2. The highlights are as follows:

• Compared to the pre-August period, the August count distribution was favourable to Barger. There were slight increases in the percentage of plate appearances that found Barger either ahead or even in the count. Notably, Barger’s K% declined from 25.3% to 22.9%, despite more plate appearances that reached two strikes (59% versus 53%).
• From a pitch mix perspective, there was a slight change in August compared to the pre-August period, but not enough to explain Barger's underperformance.
• Regarding plate discipline, Barger’s chase rate (Chase Swing%) increased in August to 33.5% from the pre-August 31.9% rate. However, I do not view the 1.6 percentage point increase to be significant, at least not enough to explain the post-July wRC+ and slugging percentage (SLG) declines. Although his chase contact rate (Chase Contact%) declined in August from 56.1% to 51.6%, I do not believe this change was significant because of the small sample size. In August, Barger swung at 64 out-of-zone pitches and made contact 33 times. If he made contact 36 times, his August chase contact rate would have been 56.3%, similar to the March-July period.
• There was little change in Barger’s batted ball direction numbers in August compared to the pre-August period.

Okay, so what explains Barger’s lacklustre August box score numbers? The answer lies in the hard-hit rate (Hard Hit%) and exit velocity numbers. I know, many MLB observers roll their eyes when someone mentions a player’s hard-hit rate. However, in 2025, the average SLG and ISO on hard-hit balls (a batted ball with a minimum exit velocity of 95 mph) are 0.941 and 0.459, respectively. On all other non-bunt batted balls, the average SLG and ISO are 0.247 and 0.034. Hence, hitting a ball hard matters!

So, I'd like for you to look at Table 3. Before August, Barger’s overall power numbers were impressive. His xISO and xSLG were 0.242 and 0.522, respectively, both above the relevant MLB average. His hard-hit rate was 55.3%, and his exit velocity (EV) averaged 93.4 mph. However, in August, Barger generated a 37.7% hard-hit rate and an 87.5-mph average EV. Concerning fastballs and offspeed pitches, that EV reduction is significant.

How does a batter increase exit velocity? Driveline notes four factors: bat speed, mass of the bat, pitch speed, and hitting the ball on the bat’s sweet spot. My focus is on bat speed and the sweet spot. As it so happens, two of the newer metrics introduced by Baseball Savant are fast-swing rate (bat speed) and squared-up rate (a close approximation of hitting the sweet spot).

Back to the topic at hand. Barger’s reduced August exit velocity, and corresponding xISO and xSLG numbers, are consistent with his reduced squared-up rate. Consider Table 4.

Barger’s 76-mph average bat speed in August was higher than his pre-August 75.7 mark. For the season, his bat speed ranks in the 93rd percentile. Accordingly, as to why Barger averaged a lower August exit velocity, the issue was not bat speed. It was his squared-up rate. Before August, on all pitches, Barger’s squared-up rate on contact was 33.2%, a little better than the 32.9% MLB average. However, in August, his squared-up rate was 23.3%. In other words, compared to the March-July period, Barger found the bat’s sweet spot at a much lower rate. Given that his bat speed did not decline after July, the reduced squared-up rate would explain the hard-hit rate reduction and the corresponding decline in his power numbers (xISO and xSLG).

At the pitch-type level, the reduced squared-up rates in August compared to the pre-August period on fastballs and offspeed pitches are consistent with the respective xISO and xSLG numbers shown in Table 3. Regarding breaking pitches, the pre-August xISO and xSLG numbers are inferior to the respective August numbers, despite August’s tick-lower squared-up rate (31.3% versus 30.8%). This apparent inconsistency (higher power numbers with a lower squared-up rate) may be due partly to launch angles. Barger's average launch angle on breaking pitches in August was 12 degrees, which is in the line drive range. Before August, it was nine degrees, which is in the groundball range. The MLB average xISO and xSLG on line drives are 0.256 and 0.894, respectively. Regarding groundballs, the MLB average xISO and xSLG are 0.028 and 0.279, respectively.

In summary, Barger’s August performance slip was consistent with a lower squared-up rate. In other words, compared to the March-April period, Barger found the bat’s sweet spot less frequently in August. One reason he was less successful at hitting pitches on the bat’s sweet spot could be swing mechanics. If that is the cause, one reason for optimism would be a sprinkling of David Popkins’ magic batting dust.

If Barger’s slump continues, one change I would make would be to move him out of the lineup’s second spot in the batting order to the sixth spot or lower. Such a move may take pressure off him and reserve the number two slot for a batter who is currently producing better box score numbers.

The Last Word
Before August, Barger’s 123 wRC+ ranked third among Toronto batters with at least 200 plate appearances. His 0.241 ISO was the best on the team, and his 0.505 SLG trailed only George Springer’s 0.506 mark. The calendar turned to August, and he produced lacklustre box score numbers, including a 60 wRC+. Changes in plate appearances by count, pitch mix, plate discipline, and batted ball direction do not explain Barger’s performance decline.

Barger’s poor August performance was consistent with a lower squared-up rate. In other words, Barger was less successful in locating pitches on the bat’s sweet spot than he was during the March-July period. One explanation for that reduced squared-up rate could be a change in swing mechanics, which can improve with time, work and instruction from Toronto’s hitting coaches.

This article was written prior to games on September 3.

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