Dark Horses the Blue Jays Could Select With Their First-Round Pick

[Jim Scott]

There are plenty of mock drafts circulating the internet that project who the Blue Jays will select with their #8 pick in the first round of the upcoming MLB draft.  These picks are intelligent, logical, and sane.  But sanity is overrated.  What if the Jays were to go outside the box and pick a player almost nobody expects?  Who could that player be?

Let's start by talking about what a dark horse looks like.  It could be a player with huge upside but a major red flag.  For example, consider when the Jays took Jeff Hoffman in 2014, despite his having blown out his elbow and requiring reconstructive surgery.  Or it could be a pitcher with an unconventional body, like 2019 first-rounder Alek Manoah’s 6-foot-6, 260-pound frame.  Or it could be a pick that opens other doors, like how drafting Jordan Groshans in 2018 might have made the signing of Adam Kloffenstein possible.  In each case, the pick was somewhat unconventional but far from crazy.

So, who could be unconventional but uncrazy for the Blue Jays in 2025?

Jace LaViolette, CF/RF – 21 years old, Texas A&M (currently Baseball America's #9 draft prospect)
Hit 50 / Power 70 / Run 60 / Field 55 / Arm 50 (per Baseball America)

In an early Baseball America mock draft, LaViolette was projected to go #1 overall, with BA saying:

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With a 90th percentile exit velocity of 109 mph and a max exit velocity of 116, LaViolette generates impressive impact. He has double-plus raw power to all fields, and he has no issue getting to it in games. LaViolette has an advanced approach and his contact ability took a step forward this spring. He moves surprisingly well for his size and played a quality centerfield in 2024 for the Aggies, but his actions and arm strength are likely best suited for right field.

But LaViolette had a poor 2025 – at least, poor by the standards of a top draft pick.  His line was .258/.427/.576, which does not seem that bad until you compare it to the average stat line of a college hitter taken within the top 15 picks: .364/.475/.668.  Scouts have also expressed concerns about his 25% strikeout percentage in 2025 (again, not inherently terrible except by the standards of a first-round pick).  Though, as an aside, there are those who believe that a strikeout is not that much worse than an ordinary out.  

Still, the combination of plus-plus power with the potential for above-average defense in right field is tantalizing.  And college players never reproduce their video-game stats in the big leagues anyway.  So might a team like the Jays take a chance on a player with high risk but Judgian upside?

Kruz Schoolcraft, 1B/LHP – 18 years old, Sunset High School (BA #20)
Hit 40 / Power 55 / Run 40 / Field 55 / Arm 60  -  Fastball 60 / Slider 55 / Changeup 55 / Control 50

Conventional wisdom in sports is a funny thing.  The three-point shot in basketball was considered high-risk and to be used sparingly – and then came Steph Curry.  Japanese players were considered inferior because they came from a league that did not have the same top-to-bottom talent – and then came Ichiro.  And a player could not both hit and pitch – and then came Ohtani.

The funny thing about two-way players is that high defensive skills can actually prove to be an impediment. Take the case of Billy Carlson in the upcoming draft.  He could well be drafted as a starting pitcher if he were not possibly the best defensive shortstop in this year’s class.  But shortstop is an exceptionally difficult position to learn to play well, requiring considerable focus.  If he did become a starting shortstop, allowing him to pitch would mean losing his glove in the field.  The ideal two-way player would be one who could pitch and DH, or pitch and play a much less demanding position.

Like a high school player with a 97-mph fastball (which should get even faster) and plus-plus power upside, who plays an above-average first base.

Kruz Schoolcraft is a beast.  Regarding his stuff on the mound, MLB.com notes:

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The 6-foot-8 Schoolcraft is a towering presence on the mound and in the batter's box. As a pitcher, he's up to 97 mph with his fastball, with the only knock against it a relative lack of spin and carry, so right now it can play a little straight. He has a tight, traditional two-plane slider, thrown in the low-80s that has carry and teeth, and some believe his feel for spin with that pitch should allow him to add more to his heater. He has a very good feel for his changeup, which he sells with excellent arm speed. Despite his size and long limbs, he does an excellent job of maintaining his delivery and landing all of his offerings for strikes.

But he is no slouch in the batter’s box or the field either, as Baseball America notes:

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At the plate, Schoolcraft is a long-limbed hitter whose lefthanded swing works well and allows him to perform at a high level in games. He has huge power for his age, with a chance for 70 raw power on the 20-80 scale once he fills out. Schoolcraft is a potential plus defender at first base, where he has good actions, quickness and range, along with his obvious arm strength, and gives his infielders extra margin for error with his size. He moves around well enough to potentially play right field as well.

Might an intelligent young player be able to learn both first base and starting pitching?  Is first base a position that most teams could backfill on the days when he is starting? And – the most important question of all – would the Jays be willing to gamble on a two-way Schoolcraft, knowing that the downside is limited by his potential to succeed as either a pitcher or a hitter, even if he is not able to do both?

Ike Irish, C/OF – 21 years old, Auburn (BA #13)
Hit 50 / Power 55 / Run 40 / Field 45 / Arm 65

Stop me if you’ve heard this one.  The Jays sign a young backstop whose catching skills are still a work in progress but who shows exceptional upside with the bat.  Their thinking is that if he stays at catcher, his bat could make him an All-Star.  But even if he moves to the outfield or first base, his bat could still be something special.

Am I talking about Carlos Delgado in 1988?  Or Ike Irish in 2025?

Irish has been one of the top “helium plays” in the draft, mostly due to his bat.  Baseball America describes him like this:

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Irish is a bat-first catcher with an incredibly advanced offensive skill set. In 2024 he hit .319/.403/.627 with 11 doubles, 14 home runs and 59 RBIs. Irish has a wide base with an open front side and medium-high handset. With two strikes, he gets deeper into his base and eliminates his stride. Irish has a short, direct swing with plus bat speed and sprays the baseball all over the yard with a gap-to-gap approach and power to the pull side. He’s shown strong collegiate bat-to-ball skills with great feel for the barrel and the ability to handle high-end velocity.

Catchers who can consistently hit with power are a rare commodity.  Pop quiz: How many catchers hit at least 20 home runs in 2024 with a wRC+ higher than 115?  Answer: only two, Cal Raleigh and William Contreras.  In 2023?  Only four: Sean Murphy, Yainer Diaz, Willson Contreras, and Adley Rutschman.  In 2022?  One five: Raleigh, both Contreras brothers, Will Smith, and J.T. Realmuto.

What's more, the number of players who meet those criteria is only that high if you include home runs hit while pinch-hitting, DH-ing, or playing other positions.  If you look only at home runs hit while catching, the number is much smaller. 

The Bottom Line
The 2025 draft is unusual in that, after the first few names, there is considerable uncertainty as to when certain players will be taken.  The Blue Jays could choose to go with a conventional pick, like Eli Willits or Kyson Witherspoon; a dark horse, like LaViolette, Schoolcraft, or Irish; or a higher-ranked player, like Jamie Arnold or Liam Doyle, who might fall to them at #8. (Remember how Matthew Liberatore was a consensus top-5 prospect in 2018, but fell to the Rays at #16?)  The only certainty about this draft is the uncertainty. 

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[Spanky__99]

I've been barking on Laviolette and Schoolkraft all along, haha.