Article: Slugging Outfielder Will Robertson Gets the Call to the Bigs!

[Simon Li]

The 27-year-old Will Robertson has never been on many people's radars despite being selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft by the Blue Jays out of Creighton (which is also fellow lefty outfielder Alan Roden's alma mater). Robertson was well known for his excellent raw power, with FanGraphs giving him a 60 grade, but he had some offensive limitations with his hit tool that made his power play down. He has always been a decent minor league hitter, typically hitting above or near minor league average throughout his career, but has never stood out compared to his peers due to elevated strikeout rates and mediocre contact rates. Outfielders such as Roden, Davis Schneider, and Jonatan Clase were all ahead of him on the Triple-A depth chart, and Robertson is not (yet) even on the 40-man roster. However, this season, something has changed spectacularly about his production, and his peripherals that has put people on notice and now earned him a spot on the major league roster, with Trevor Hahn reporting that Robertson is set to join the major league team today against the Cardinals.

Robertson getting this opportunity may have to do with the fact that he's one of the hottest hitters in baseball at the moment. He just earned Minor League Player of the Week honours in the International League, as he had FIVE homers in the last week, including a three-homer game, as well as two doubles, eight RBIs, and eight runs. The hot stretch is not the only great thing about his performance on the season, though.

This has been Robertson's second year at Triple-A Buffalo, and the first year was a mixed bag for him. He was a slightly below-average hitter despite hitting 19 homers, as he struggled to make contact with the ball and whiffed and chased a lot. When he did hit the ball, he could do damage, but pitchers were able to pitch around him, and he would do himself no favors, striking out over 30% of the time because of poor pitch selection. He was in the 97th percentile in hard-hit rate and pulled the ball at a good rate to help make use of his power, but his approach prevented him from getting to it consistently. 

This season, Robertson has improved immensely, as his K% has dropped seven percentage points from 31.3% to a more reasonable 23.9%. His walk rate has improved as well, going from a 10.8% to an elite 17.0%. The two biggest changes that I've seen are that he's not chasing nearly as much out of the zone, dropping his O-Swing% from 32.5% to 26.7%, and his contact metrics have improved significantly when he does choose to swing.

His overall contact rate has jumped up from 67.2% to a respectable 74.1%, and his zone-contact rate has also jumped 5% points from 79.5% to 84.7%. He's forcing pitchers into the zone more, and he's getting much more consistent contact when pitches are thrown in the zone. This allows his elite power numbers to truly shine, as he is above the 90th percentile in Max EV, 90th% EV, Barrel%, Average EV, LA Sweet-Spot%, and even in the 100th percentile in Hard-Hit% (Graphic via @TJStats). Robertson is now slashing .288/.403/.582, which is good for a wRC+ 59% better than the league average:

Despite the improved offensive profile, there are still a few limitations to his game that'll put a damper on his potential future production. The Bisons have been extremely protective of him against lefty pitchers, as he's only had 13 plate appearances against lefties on the season, so there is a good chance he'll be relegated to platoon-bat status for the rest of his career. Robertson is also a below-average runner, having stolen more than three bases in a season just once. Defensively, he's also not the best. Although he has a good arm, his range and reads are below average, and although he has played center field a few times throughout his career, he's better suited for the corners. 

As Will Robertson has been grinding through the minors since 2019, it really is heartwarming that he's finally getting an opportunity to make it to the majors, backed by his strong production. Despite the Blue Jays' splotchy record of player development, one thing they've consistently done well is helping late bloomers become productive major league players, with Schneider, Nathan Lukes, Ernie Clement, and Spencer Horwitz all strong examples from the past couple of years. Hopefully, Robertson will be the next. 

Stats updated prior to games on June 10.

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[BatFlip]

That is an incredible improvement in the walk rate from a 10.8% to 17% BB at age 27. 

Given his limitations, it would be amazing to see this guy beat the odds and actually stick in the bigs as a platoon/bench bat.

[Orgfiller]

Happy for Will Robertson. Same college and similar signing bonus as Alan Roden, wonder if they know each other in some capacity. Always nice to see a guy that's been grinding through the minors get a well deserved shot. Guys like this can sometimes come up and have a small run of success before the league catches up to them.

The power is very legit, I could see him start his career on a heater before inevitably cooling off, and of course would be nice if he was a legit strong side platoon bat, something like a Matt Adams type who can somewhat play the outfield.

[Spanky__99]

18 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Happy for Will Robertson. Same college and similar signing bonus as Alan Roden, wonder if they know each other in some capacity. Always nice to see a guy that's been grinding through the minors get a well deserved shot. Guys like this can sometimes come up and have a small run of success before the league catches up to them.

The power is very legit, I could see him start his career on a heater before inevitably cooling off, and of course would be nice if he was a legit strong side platoon bat, something like a Matt Adams type who can somewhat play the outfield.

A strong side platoon with pop and takes his base would be an awesome result.

[Simon Li]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Happy for Will Robertson. Same college and similar signing bonus as Alan Roden, wonder if they know each other in some capacity. Always nice to see a guy that's been grinding through the minors get a well deserved shot. Guys like this can sometimes come up and have a small run of success before the league catches up to them.

The power is very legit, I could see him start his career on a heater before inevitably cooling off, and of course would be nice if he was a legit strong side platoon bat, something like a Matt Adams type who can somewhat play the outfield.

Thy actually were teammates at one point.

[Orgfiller]

2 minutes ago, Simon Li said:

Thy actually were teammates at one point.

Ah cool, I didn't want to make that assumption since they were 3 draft classes apart but figured there was a chance.

[Simon Li]

16 minutes ago, Orgfiller said:

Ah cool, I didn't want to make that assumption since they were 3 draft classes apart but figured there was a chance.

Clarifying point, in the minor leagues haha. But they probably had some sort of connection Creighton-wise. Robertson was drafted in 2019 and Roden joined Creighton in 2020. 

[Orgfiller]

2 minutes ago, Simon Li said:

Clarifying point, in the minor leagues haha. But they probably had some sort of connection Creighton-wise. Robertson was drafted in 2019 and Roden joined Creighton in 2020. 

Oh okay, yeah they were definitely teammates in at least '23 and '24, and obviously recently with Roden being demoted to AAA. Kind of a dumb point to make on my part since they obviously know each from professional ball.

[Simon Li]

1 hour ago, Orgfiller said:

Oh okay, yeah they were definitely teammates in at least '23 and '24, and obviously recently with Roden being demoted to AAA. Kind of a dumb point to make on my part since they obviously know each from professional ball.

Oops I got it wrong 😅, Roden redshirted as a freshman in 2019, so they actually played together in college!

[THANOS]

10 hours ago, Orgfiller said:

Happy for Will Robertson. Same college and similar signing bonus as Alan Roden, wonder if they know each other in some capacity. Always nice to see a guy that's been grinding through the minors get a well deserved shot. Guys like this can sometimes come up and have a small run of success before the league catches up to them.

The power is very legit, I could see him start his career on a heater before inevitably cooling off, and of course would be nice if he was a legit strong side platoon bat, something like a Matt Adams type who can somewhat play the outfield.

A Schneider type of heater to begin his career would be very much welcomed. You'd love to see it!