Article: Celebrating Vladdy’s 500th Run Scored

[Mike LeSage]

Ahead of spring training, we looked at some milestones that Blue Jays players might reach this season. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. getting to 500 runs is the last of the “Ironclad Locks” to fall, with Andrés Giménez's 100th stolen base and José Berríos’ 100th win being the others. The big part of Vladdy's milestone, of course, is that he’s scored all 500 with the Jays. As we celebrate the 500th, we look back and reflect on all the runs that led to this point.

His first run came in his 14th game with the Jays. He had reached base 15 times previously, but those behind him in the order failed to drive him in. His first 13 games in a Toronto uniform represent his longest career scoring drought. So, in the top of the first inning against Nick Vincent and the San Francisco Giants, Vladdy took things into his own hands and scored his first run as a Blue Jay in a package deal with his first home run. A solo shot to deep CF.

Fittingly, at the end of that video, one of Vladdy’s former teammates, Teoscar Hernández, is seen celebrating with him (and helping clear sunflower seeds out of his hair). Hernández was responsible for driving Vladdy home 38 times, the second-most of any teammate Guerrero has had. Topping the list is Alejandro Kirk with 42. Altogether, forty different teammates have had a hand in getting Vladdy to this milestone. After Kirk and Hernández, it’s Bo Bichette (27), Randal Grichuk (24), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (19), and Matt Chapman (17) at the top of the list. Those six have combined to bring Guerrero home almost as many times as Vladdy has done it himself (165).

Not surprisingly, Guerrero has scored most of his runs against AL East opponents, with his 71 against Baltimore topping the list. He has 61 against Boston, 48 against Tampa Bay, and 40 when facing the Yankees. His 27 runs against Kansas City represent the most outside of the division, and his 13 against Philly the most against an NL team. Despite having scored ten more runs against the Orioles than the Red Sox, Vladdy has more runs scored at Fenway Park than at any other away location. 

In his career with the Jays, Vladdy has taken at least one plate appearance from every spot in the order but has only scored runs when batting in the 2-6 holes. He has the most plate appearances batting third, so it’s no surprise that he’s scored more (312 times) from that spot in the lineup than anywhere else. What is a little shocking is that his runs per plate appearance are highest when batting fifth. It’s a marginal increase, but surprising nonetheless. Don’t worry, you won’t be seeing any “Should Vladdy Hit Lower in the Order?” articles from me.

His 25 runs to this point in the season have him just outside of the top 10 in the AL at 17th (one run behind a 6-player tie with 26 runs). He finished eighth both last season and in 2022. In 2021, when the Jays had their most prolific offense of the last decade, Vladdy led both the team and the entire league with his 123 runs scored.

After getting on base in a very uncharacteristic fashion, with a slow-rolling infield single, Vladdy was in position for the milestone. Guerrero's 500th run came courtesy of a Daulton Varsho home run in the 6th inning against Detroit. He’s scored runs in every inning, including 11 in extras, but he's scored in the 6th more than any other. Most runs in the great game of baseball are scored when a batter drives them in. In Vladdy's case, he has done it himself with a home run about one-third of the time (165 times). Slightly under two-thirds of the time, it has been a teammate getting him home with a hit (or sacrifice) of their own (323 times). Then, on very rare occasions, he hasn't been driven in at all. That is to say, he has scored a run where no RBI is granted (12 times). Things like scoring on a wild pitch or coming home while the batter grounds into a double play are two examples of what I like to call the "Mystery Bag" of runs.

In the extremely rare case of an extra innings run overlapping with the ‘Mystery Bag’ portion of his runs scored, we have this beautiful case of heads-up baserunning where Vladdy scored from third on a wild pitch in the 10th inning:

If he keeps this pace up, we should be back here in 2032 celebrating the next 500. Hope to see you all then!

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[Bob Ritchie]

If I were to make a guess, a lot of data-retrieval work would go into this article. It was a fun read. Well done!

Edited May 17, 2025 by Bob Ritchie