Article: Projecting the Blue Jays’ Rookie Food Options

[Mike LeSage]

The Blue Jays might not be projected for a winning season, but the new food offerings at the Rogers Centre have projections of their own.

The Toronto Blue Jays have announced a number of new menu items that will be available at the Rogers Centre this season. Using a proprietary set of metrics, we’ve crunched some numbers to determine what kind of value fans can expect from the rookie foods at the park this season. First let's familiarize ourselves with the metrics and methodology we’ll be using in this evaluation. 

Meals Above Replacement (MAR): In the early years of baseball, a ballpark meal was nothing more than some peanuts and cracker-jack. Real replacement-level stuff. With each advancement in food technology, the envelope has been pushed. Mary Brown’s Original Big Mary with Taters has been averaging 4.2 MAR since its rookie season in 2022. The Hot Maple & Bacon Footlong Hotdog won last season’s MVF (Most Valuable Food) with a 7.8 MAR.

On-Mind Percentage (OMP): This is how many of your thoughts are occupied pre-game by a given food item. A basic hot dog clocks in around 3% on a regular game day. Loonie Dog Tuesdays can see this number get as high as 25%.

Novelty Factor (NF+): This measures how likely you are to repurchase an item. As you can tell by the plus, this is weighted to the league-average. Anything above 100 is better than average. Last season, the rookie Stuffed Jamaican Patties and Snow Fries ended up on opposite ends of the spectrum. The patties seeing a lot of repeat purchases and a 122 NF+, while the fries underperformed and logged a 87.

Clockwise from top left: Crunchy Pickle Dog, Blueberry Pancakes, Plakata Chicken Skewers, Cotton Candy Fries. Courtesy of the Blue Jays.

First up, we’ve got the two new dogs, the Mojo Hot Dog and the Crunchy Pickle Hot Dog. Following in the maple and bacon footsteps of last year’s MVF isn’t going to be easy. The standard versions are projected for 3.5 MAR, but the footlong jumps to a 6.0 MAR. These are sturdy-looking dogs. The novelty factor is where the projections differ however. The Mojo Pork is expected to keep people coming back, and that’s reflected in its 118 NF+. Pre-season concerns about how the pretzels are going to interact with the shoestring pickles have the Crunchy Pickle Dog slightly below league average at 98 NF+. This is a race we’ll want to follow all season.

Next up is the OMP star of the preseason: The Cotton Candy Fries. We haven’t seen an on-mind percentage this high since the McDonald’s hot dogs that marked the SkyDome’s debut, making it one of the only locations in the world that sold McHotDogs at the time. A high OMP doesn’t always correlate to a high NF+, and the projections have these cotton candy-topped fries going in opposite directions. The 40% OMP is justified, and it jumps to 50% amongst children aged 10 and under, but the 85 NF+ suggests a one-and-done experience.

The Plakata Skewers are projected to be a solid contributor to the rotation this season. These chicken skewers covered in sazon, ancho chipotle aioli, and pico de gallo take their name from the home run cry Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has made famous in Toronto.

Could these skewers get renamed next season if Guerrero is skewering line drives elsewhere? With a projected 4.0 MAR, 110 NF+, and a solid 15% OMP this offering could be around for many seasons to come without any need for extension negotiations.

The Blueberry Mini Pancakes (also available in Oreo flavour) haven’t been getting a tonne of press this preseason, but could be a dark horse breakout candidate. If they can carve out a spot as the go-to offering during the seventh-inning stretch, they could see themselves outperforming their projected 105 NF+.

My pick for RFotY (Rookie Food of the Year) is the Korean Fried Chicken Wings. Coming in two flavours, sweet and spicy and with soy garlic, the flavour profile projects to be top-tier and is reflected in the 3.8 MAR and 22% OMP. The Novelty Factor is what we’ll want to keep an eye on. If the wings can avoid the messy-fingers pitfall of some predecessors (pulled pork sliders, I’m looking at you), they could put up historic numbers.

Korean Fried Chicken Wings

The utility-option season is looking to lock down a position in The Stop (located on the 100 level behind the Batter’s Eye). The Stop is offering both bao and rice bowls with four new flavours: Crispy Pork Belly, Lemongrass Chicken, Soy Marinated Beef, and Smoked Tempeh. If things go right, the mix-and-match potential of the four flavours and two bases could see this utility option move from playing the matchups into an everyday player.

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