Article: An Outside the Box (And Probably Unrealistic) Blue Jays Extension Idea

[Jim Scott]

Could the Jays approach the extensions for Vladdy and Bo from another angle?

Coming into the 2018 draft, the Jays had picks 12, 52, and 88 in the first three rounds. They had their eyes on two young players from Magnolia High School in Texas: Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein. Problem is, both players were expecting first-round level signing bonuses. But the Jays had an idea. Groshans and Kloffenstein were close friends and they wanted to play together in professional ball. So the Jays drafted Groshans in the first round and Kloffenstein in the third. Groshans agreed to sign for $3.4 million - $800,000 under the pick value of $4.2 million - and Kloffenstein signed for $2.45 million, roughly $1.8 million over slot value. In effect, Jo-Gro's discount partially subsidized Kloff's overslot.

Which brings us to Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette. The two stars have been vocal about their friendship and desire to spend the rest of their careers on the same team. But there are not many teams who would be willing to spend the money necessary to land both players in free agency, and of the few who would be willing, not all have openings at both first base and shortstop (or second base). Toronto has both the money and the need, and both players have expressed a desire to remain with the Jays. So how about this, as an only-slightly-crazy idea? Go to the two agents and say that the Jays would like to keep both players (possibly conditional on Bo moving to second base, but that is another story). Say that the total budget for a 10-year deal for both players is $750 million, and that they can decide between themselves how it should be allocated.

It is entirely possible that the players' expressed desire to remain with the Jays is just good public relations. What agent would ever advise his client to badmouth his current team when he might be entering the free agent market in the near future? So maybe the potential for a home-team discount is not high. And similarly, it is one thing to value hanging with your buddy but something altogether different to potentially sacrifice millions of dollars for that privilege.

A larger question might be whether the Jays would consider signing both players, even under these terms. $750 million over 10 years would be $75 million per year for only two players (and it would still be less than the contract Juan Soto just signed with the Mets). That would represent almost one-third of the team's total current budget, and could limit its ability to fulfill other needs. But with the inflation of star-level salaries, it is possible that five years from now, $75 million might seem a bargain.

The Bottom Line

There's a long list of reasons that this idea won't end up as reality. It's slightly crazy and might not even be legal under the collective bargaining agreement. When it comes to contact negotiations, big league players have a lot more rights than high schoolers. But the underlying concept might make sense. If (and this is a big IF) the Jays would want to extend both players, would there be merit in asking them if they would give more favourable terms if they could play together? I remember when the 2010-11 Miami Heat of the NBA signed LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh. Each player signed at a discount because they wanted to be part of a superteam. The 2025 Jays might not be a superteam, even with Bichette and Guerrero, but extending those two players could definitely point the franchise in that direction.

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[Terry Mesmer]

Whew! Like Jim, I don't know if this tactic is allowed under the CBA rules. But I do know the numbers are awful.

How much is Bo worth on the open market? After his abysmal 2024, and with questions about his leg health (he looked slow on Saturday), no way is Bo worth 10Y/$250M. And not to play 2B.

The rest is moot.

[Jim Scott]

Not sure I agree about Bo.  From 2021-23 he averaged a .298/.339/.476 line with a 125 wRC+ and led the AL in total hits twice.  He averaged a 4.5 fWAR, despite playing SS (where his poor stats likely outweighed the positional adjustment).  If he had played full-time 2B over those 3 years, his wRC+ and fangraphs OFF would have been second only to Altuve among full-time 2B.

If I were the Jays, I would be very tempted to try to "buy low" after his poor 2024.

[ian]

I don't think owners would do that, if one refused, the other would then know how much money they can ask for then and weaken their negotiatiating position. The team has to make decision what each players value is.