Article: Eight Bold Predictions for the Toronto Blue Jays in 2025: Part One

[Owen Hill]

In the first of a four-part series, we've got one prognostication about Vladimir Guerrero Jr. one for Alejandro Kirk.

Blue Jays fans! The time has finally come to stop reflecting on the disappointment that was 2024 and to turn the page (or throw the old calendar in the trash and replace it with a new one). Let's start looking ahead to what 2025 has in store for our Blue Jays. Will it be a year of making deals with long-time friends, fresh faces carving out their space on the team, and exceeding expectations? Or will the sequel be worse than the original? Only time will tell, but as 2025 is such a pivotal year for the Blue Jays — imminent free agents, young players stepping into bigger roles, and veterans looking to play key roles — I figured I’d take a stab at coming up with some bold predictions for what lies ahead in the next calendar year. This is the first of a four-part series that will run all week. Here we go… 

1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. makes it to free agency before signing with the Blue Jays long-term.

Hoooo boy, we’re starting off with a bang. One of the most anxiety-inducing conversations you can have with a Blue Jays fan (and members of the front office, I'm sure) is about the future of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. I could waste my breath and spend a couple paragraphs complaining about the fact that this deal should have been done three or four years ago, but in the spirit of a new year and looking at what’s ahead, I’ll leave it at that. The fact is, the most pivotal contract discussion in franchise history is going to be taking place in the next six weeks before spring training starts. 

While Vlad and the Jays were able to agree on a contract for 2025, avoiding a second straight year of arbitration, there is a serious lack of smoke from Blue Jays insiders, and Vlad’s recent appearance on Abriendo Sports podcast in which he said that he recently turned down a $340-million contract extension is giving me the vibe that the Blue Jays are hesitant to open up the purse strings in a meaningful enough way for Guerrero to forego the opportunity to field offers from the 29 other teams. We know how closely Guerrero watched the Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto sweepstakes, where the bidding was driven up to $700 million, and I certainly can’t blame him for betting that given his young age, another elite offensive season could spark a bidding war and a contract well over $400 million. With the rare opportunity to test free agency heading into his age-27 season, Guerrero is all but guaranteed to receive the largest contract for a first baseman in baseball history. 

Now to the second part of the prediction: I believe that the Blue Jays will ultimately pony up the cash and ensure that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a Blue Jay for the rest of his career, or at least the next 10 to 15 years. It’s been covered ad nauseam at this point, but Guerrero has maintained throughout the last six years that he loves being a Blue Jay and wants to spend his career in Toronto. It’s also become sickeningly apparent that attracting superstars to Toronto via free agency is not easy, especially during a stretch of disappointing seasons. So I think it’s fairly obvious that ensuring the superstar you already employ sticks around is vital to your baseball operations. There are arguments to be made about whether or not Guerrero is a true superstar or a generational talent who belongs in the same conversation as Ohtani or Soto. I'd probably say he’s a tier below, given his lack of positional versatility and the level of volatility he showed. But in the same breath, I’d argue that the true question we should be asking is: can Guerrero be the best offensive player on a World Series-winning team? And with the right team around him, there is no doubt in my mind that he could be. 

The baseball side of the case to give Vlad a blank check is fairly obvious, so the conversation should end here, but if you need any more convincing, just take a look at how alienated the fanbase feels right now, and how much Guerrero means to all of the people who love this team. Ross Atkins and company may have already sealed their fate as the most hated front office in Blue Jays history, but letting Guerrero walk would ensure that they'd never be welcome into the country of Canada again. My official prediction is that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will sign with the Blue Jays for $420 million and 11 years before the 2025 Winter Meetings. 

2. Alejandro Kirk represents the Blue Jays at the All-Star Game.

I told you these would be bold!

Before the 2023 season, the Blue Jays made a very heavy bet on the talent of Alejandro Kirk, trading away the game’s top catching prospect in Gabriel Moreno. While this was one of the more controversial Blue Jays trades of recent memory, you can’t fault anybody involved for handing the catcher position to a 23-year-old coming off of an All-Star selection and Silver Slugger. Unfortunately, Krik's inability to put together even league-average production at the plate is one of the biggest reasons the Jays have struggled offensively over the past two seasons. In 2023, his contact quality cratered, and his wRC+fell all the way from 129 in 2022 (?) to just 96 in 2023 (?). 

It was more of the same from Kirk to start 2024, as he rocked a dismal 79 wRC+ across 213 plate appearances through the July 30 trade deadline. This made the trading of pending free agent catcher Danny Jansen to the Boston Red Sox at the trade deadline slightly surprising, because the Jays were doubling down on the bet placed on Kirk’s productivity prior to 2023. But after the trade deadline, while Kirk was asked to take on a heavier load, something extremely interesting happened. Over his last 173 plate appearances, Kirk was an above average hitter, putting up a 113 wRC+. After digging into the batted ball data, it’s hard to quantify exactly what changed. He didn't hit the ball harder, or put it the air more often. It might simply have been that his batted ball luck turned around, but despite his terrible start, Kirk finished 2024 with (slightly) above-average exit velocity.

It’s always important to take projections with a grain of salt, but Fangraphs’ Steamer believes in Kirk as an offensive player, projecting him to have the third-best(!) wRC+ among all catchers, and put up by far his best offensive season since 2022. Combining some renewed offensive prowess with Kirk’s elite defensive skills would make him a shoe-in for another four-win season, and if he gets out of the gate hot, he should be a lock to be one of the top catchers in the American League. 

A little food for thought before moving on:  Although 2024 was a major disappointment for Kirk, he finished with the same fWAR as 2024 all-star Adley Rutschman despite player 45 fewer games.

That wraps up my first two predictions. Tune in tomorrow for the next batch!

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[BatFlip]

If we're going to be bold, predictions for our under the radar ace Bowden Francis should be coming up next.  I was going to say Cy Young, but I'll settle for AS.

[Madison]

Very insightful article! Can’t wait to read more from this writer!!

[Hill]

Might need a happiness hedge on that Vladdy prediction 😬

[Dayna]

Great article- very insightful!