GDT: 2/3 Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays (3:07 ET)

[Slade]

Holy s*** Manoah throws 5 straight balls and gifted a 3-2 count.

[John_Havok]

Manoah bailed out by the ump on balls 4 and 5…. Wow

[Kordesi]

Hopefully he can get going after those breaks

[bones10]

So Manoah is straight up not pitching like he did last year, it’s not ‘regression’ he looks like a completely different starter. Fastball has lost 1-2 mph, slider looks loopy with no bite and his command is way worse. What gives? Regression was predicted but that’s not what we’re seeing he looks awful this year.

[max silver]

One out away from escaping the inning unscathed.

[max silver]

Nice play by Bo to end the inning. To my eyes he's been much better at short this season.

[THANOS]

So Manoah is straight up not pitching like he did last year, it’s not ‘regression’ he looks like a completely different starter. Fastball has lost 1-2 mph, slider looks loopy with no bite and his command is way worse. What gives? Regression was predicted but that’s not what we’re seeing he looks awful this year.

 

No off-season conditioning plan mixed with pitch clock preventing him from catching his breath and keeping in his delivery.

 

That's my honest guess.

[Stangstag]

No off-season conditioning plan mixed with pitch clock preventing him from catching his breath and keeping in his delivery.

 

That's my honest guess.

 

He needs to spend the offseason with Driveline

[THANOS]

He needs to spend the offseason with Driveline

 

I agree, and with a personal trainer and dietician.

[JaysAllMighty]

Buck being Buck... LOL

[max silver]

Lots of rockets finding their way into opposition gloves lately.

[Stangstag]

Lots of rockets finding their way into opposition gloves lately.

 

Feels like its been a week since we had a nice double in the gap

[John_Havok]

So Manoah is straight up not pitching like he did last year, it’s not ‘regression’ he looks like a completely different starter. Fastball has lost 1-2 mph, slider looks loopy with no bite and his command is way worse. What gives? Regression was predicted but that’s not what we’re seeing he looks awful this year.

 

Regression is just numbers evening out over time, it doesn’t mean a loss of skills. His skills being obviously worse is retrogression. What we are seeing is retrogression, not regression ….which is the problem

[Daniel Labude]

They get a diving catch we almost give up ablittle league HR...awesome

[John_Havok]

Bad decisions in the OF are not what we need…wtf is this team right now? Line drives all finding gloves….outfielders taking risks they shouldn’t take…nobody ready to hit meatballs. This is looking systemic rather than just a bad week.

 

Not the line drives part that’s just horseshit luck

[Stangstag]

When Springer is struggling with the bat he makes some true dumbass decisions in the field and on the bases

[max silver]

Vladdy just missed making a spectacular play.

[Slade]

Jesus I would be pissed if I was the Orioles, this ump is gifting Manoah strikes that are not even close.

[Omar]

So Manoah is straight up not pitching like he did last year, it’s not ‘regression’ he looks like a completely different starter. Fastball has lost 1-2 mph, slider looks loopy with no bite and his command is way worse. What gives? Regression was predicted but that’s not what we’re seeing he looks awful this year.

 

From Enos Sarris:

 

The Stuff+ model didn’t love Manoah going into the season, projecting a high-threes ERA based on average-ish Stuff+ last season, but it wasn’t alone. Of the four projection systems listed on FanGraphs before the season, three had an ERA projection higher than 3.6, and that was before those systems realized the run environment would be much higher this season. In April, he got a 4.26 ppERA in our projections, but even that has been generous compared to his results.

Even if his movement and velocities didn’t stand out before, they’ve still fallen off this year. It’s multi-faceted. He’s:

 

[*=left]Lost a tick off the fastball
[*=left]Lost ride on the four-seam and sink on the sinker
[*=left]Lost drop and sweep on the slider

That’s been enough to ding the Stuff+ on all his pitches, but it’s really hurt his slider the most.

He’s improved his sweep before, but that October 2022 number may be a red herring: it’s one start. Otherwise there’s a clear trend towards less sweep over his career, and a lack of a real example of this much trouble with the sweep before recovering. Of the five projection systems at FanGraphs, three have an ERA over 4.18, and ppERA has him with a 4.26 ERA, which is basically league average. It doesn’t look like he’s getting very unlucky with balls in play or strand rate, either, so in leagues where you need to do better than a league average ERA going forward, he’s a sell low.

[JaysAllMighty]

Nice DP

[max silver]

Jesus I would be pissed if I was the Orioles, this ump is gifting Manoah strikes that are not even close.

 

Yeah the strike zone for Alek is huge so far. It's called high and wide on both sides of the plate so far.

[Daniel Labude]

Doesn't mean a lot, but Manoah is coming through on his pitches much better with the whip he had last season

[Daniel Labude]

Another hanger meatball missed finished with a K looking. Classic

[John_Havok]

Doesn't mean a lot, but Manoah is coming through on his pitches much better with the whip he had last season

 

Don’t kid yourself, there’s still clearly something wrong with his mechanics, arm health or both. All of his pitches are objectively worse than the last 2 seasons.

[Daniel Labude]

Don’t kid yourself, there’s still clearly something wrong with his mechanics, arm health or both. All of his pitches are objectively worse than the last 2 seasons.

 

Yeah so look for the small things improving, and I wouldn't call that a small thing

[JaysAllMighty]

No doubt Jansen is the smarter catcher

[John_Havok]

Yeah so look for the small things improving, and I wouldn't call that a small thing

 

I suppose yeah. But him getting slightly better results with the same garbage pitches really isn’t what you’d look at as a small thing improving. There needs to be improvement in his actual pitches, which isn’t there at all yet.

 

Sure he throws a good one here and there, all pitchers do. Consistently getting back to 95-96 with his 4 seamer and being able to locate the strike zone without a map, compass and sextant would be a good start

[John_Havok]

Easy call on review, HR

[Daniel Labude]

Great job with the slider and fastball...a changeup off the plate for a pulled HR lol. Pulling the ball works

[Daniel Labude]

Wasn't even hit 100 mph