MLB 2020 Draft

[Spanky99]

Is this guy above me okay? Do we need to call someone?

 

Yes.

[Abomination]

Is this guy above me okay? Do we need to call someone?

 

He's fine as long as he isn't trying to fantasy draft dead people.

[P2F]

I'm that guy... too.

 

lol

 

lol

 

My amount is gorgeous.New champs are, me

 

I'm that guy... too.

I hate me?

 

Hear, hear! Well said, mate.

 

*taps stick on the ice*

[Beans]

lol... never change, Spanky

[Spanky99]

lol... never change, Spanky

 

Wasn't thinking on it. lol

[KevinGregg]

I dont understand the logic of drafting a kid who will probably be good in 6 years when we have 3 pitchers who could step into the rotation within 14 months available? Why pick a lottery ticket when there are actually big league ready starters available?

 

If the college hitters fell to us I'd be all over them but a high school hitter who doesnt even have elite defense doesnt scream top 5 pick to me...

 

Veen would make way more sense if we were picking at our usual 15th spot.

[THANOS]

I dont understand the logic of drafting a kid who will probably be good in 6 years when we have 3 pitchers who could step into the rotation within 14 months available? Why pick a lottery ticket when there are actually big league ready starters available?

 

If the college hitters fell to us I'd be all over them but a high school hitter who doesnt even have elite defense doesnt scream top 5 pick to me...

 

Veen would make way more sense if we were picking at our usual 15th spot.

 

Draft the BPA always, never draft based on need or proximity to the majors. If the Jay's brass believe Veen or Gonzales can produce more WAR and value, year to year, than Hancock, then they should draft them.

[Deadpool]

Veen's helium seems a bit artificial to me, and if he's on the board I'd prefer Hancock. I mean, I wouldn't hate Veen as a pick, but it's suspicious that he started to rise so much after all games had stopped and there's only video of his being pushed out all over the place...

[metafour]

Veen's helium seems a bit artificial to me, and if he's on the board I'd prefer Hancock. I mean, I wouldn't hate Veen as a pick, but it's suspicious that he started to rise so much after all games had stopped and there's only video of his being pushed out all over the place...

 

I don't think its "suspicious": because he's from Florida he was actually able to play in spring games and was dominant, which is when he started rising. It only looks like he started rising after all games had stopped because the media industry that reports on this stuff is naturally always behind what is actually happening in front offices, so there is a lag in reporting when a player's perceived stock rises or falls.

[BlueRocky]

Here are some scouting grades released by Baseball America in their recent prospects showdown series:

 

Infield:

 

Lefties:

 

Righties:

 

On a side note, I've seen Hancock's grades higher from other sources with FB 65, CU 70, SL 60.

Which makes some sense as his FB regularly touches 97-98 and has topped at 99.

But the command is what separates him IMO from other top arms.

Edited May 24, 2020 by BlueRocky

[BlueRocky]

I dont understand the logic of drafting a kid who will probably be good in 6 years when we have 3 pitchers who could step into the rotation within 14 months available? Why pick a lottery ticket when there are actually big league ready starters available?

 

If the college hitters fell to us I'd be all over them but a high school hitter who doesnt even have elite defense doesnt scream top 5 pick to me...

 

Veen would make way more sense if we were picking at our usual 15th spot.

 

The case for drafting college pitcher at no. 5 makes a lot of sense as the draft landscape currently stands. And this front office has already demonstrated in the past of leaning towards college pitching (e.g. Alek Manoah) when good hitters were still on the board (e.g. Brett Baty, Corbin Caroll). They drafted Zeuch well ahead of Bichette. They also took a bunch of second and third tier college pitchers in the later rounds recently, and this is their first chance to land a top tier arm.

 

But if we were drafting in our usual spot 11 or 12 there’s little chance Zac Veen would be available, similar to 2018 when I really wanted Jarred Kelenic and he went 6th.

 

He’s not leaps and bounds a better prospect (right now) than Austin Hendrick or even Robert Hassell and Pete Crow-Armstrong, but he’s the most projectable due to a combination of his swing, size, and as metafour pointed out he played (and raked) this season unlike his peers, and against the top competition available in prep (Florida). PCA also did well for himself to recover some draft stock in this short season by showing much better power than last summer.

 

If you look back at past drafts, there’s a lot of teams that regret not taking upside and settling for lesser unknowns, this might be one of those cases. Zac Veen is not a prop up guy, his draft stock certainly rose a lot this year. But the kid has been living on baseball fields since he was like 12 yrs old and has been dubbed a hitting prodigy for quite some time, scouts have been watching him for years now.

Edited May 21, 2020 by BlueRocky

[KevinGregg]

Draft the BPA always, never draft based on need or proximity to the majors. If the Jay's brass believe Veen or Gonzales can produce more WAR and value, year to year, than Hancock, then they should draft them.

 

There has to be some consideration given to the length of time it will take to develop a guy. For instance, if they think Veen gives us ~5 WAR per year from 2024-2030, is that really more valuable to the org than Hancock giving us ~3.5 WAR per year from 2021-2027?

[BlueRocky]

There has to be some consideration given to the length of time it will take to develop a guy. For instance, if they think Veen gives us ~5 WAR per year from 2024-2030, is that really more valuable to the org than Hancock giving us ~3.5 WAR per year from 2021-2027?

 

I think both scenarios would be a win for the Blue Jays at #5.

If you get a #2 starter behind Nate Pearson or a corner bat giving you 4-5 WAR every year you've won in the draft.

There's no way to accurately project the future, so it's pretty much a guessing game on both performance and health.

 

We're more trying to avoid this scenario:

 

 

 

Teams don't want to be the one that took Nick Gordon/Alex Jackson/Jeff Hoffman/Max Pentecost (ouch) when Aaron Nola, Trea Turner, and Matt Chapman were still on the table.

It's easy with hindsight, but this practically happens every year.

Landing that 3-6 WAR player vs the org guy that doesn't make triple-A can make or break a rebuild.

And yeah there's still a likelihood Zac Veen can arrive much sooner than 4 years if he rakes in the minors.

But I agree I prefer Hancock and Meyer over Asa Lacy if we are taking college pitching.

Edited May 21, 2020 by BlueRocky

[Slade]

Mick Abel vs. Jared Kelley

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mick-abel-vs-jared-kelley-2020-mlb-draft-prospect-showdown-rhp-rankings/

 

Fastball: Kelley and Abel have reached similar peak velocities, both getting up to the 99 mph range at various times, but Kelley gets the edge here because his fastball velocity is more consistently in the upper 90s. The Texan also has exceptional feel to spot his fastball where he wants. EDGE: Kelley.

 

Breaking Ball: Abel gets the nod here, because his low-80s slider was voted the best overall breaking pitch in the high school class by scouting directors on our preseason best tools list. Abel’s slider is consistently sharp with good depth and tilt, while the development of Kelley’s breaking ball is one of his bigger questions he faces. EDGE: Abel

 

Changeup: Both Kelley and Abel have changeups that stack up among the best in the class, though Kelley’s takes a very slight edge here. The pitch sits in the low 80s with excellent diving life, and he throws the pitch with impressive arm speed and has advanced feel to consistently locate the offering at the bottom of the zone. EDGE: Kelley

 

Control: Both Kelley and Abel are regarded as two of the better strike-throwers in the class, but scouting directors voted that Abel had better command, and for that he gets the edge here. Consistently landing his entire arsenal is the another area of separation in this category. EDGE: Abel

 

X Factor: Current physicality is perhaps the biggest difference between Kelley and Abel. The former is close to physically maxed out at 6-foot-3, 215 pounds and already possesses a pro-ready frame. Scouts believe Kelley has the durability to handle a five-day workload. Abel is much lankier at 6-foot-5, 180 pounds, with more room for added strength gains in the future. While he added weight over the offseason, his frame suggests more room for future physical development. This could benefit either pitcher depending on team preference. Some clubs want physical prep players, while others might prefer to dream on what Abel could look like in several years. EDGE: Draw.

 

Scout's take on Abel: “I’m enamored with this one. I love him. I think he’s got a chance to be really good. He has now stuff, up to 96-97 (mph), breaking balls, projection, delivery . . . Front-of-the-rotation ceiling.”

 

Scout's take on Kelley: “He is a man amongst boys . . . At the Area Codes he was just toying with guys . . . The last guy who I saw who could pitch fastball/changeup like that was Chris Paddack, and you saw how quick he got to the big leagues—and Kelley has better stuff than Paddack in high school.”

 

SPOTLIGHT: Top 2020 Righthanded Pitchers

Strength: 4 stars

 

Coming on the heels of one of the weakest pitching draft classes ever, the 2020 crop of righthanders excites scouting departments with its premium talent and depth. Ten or more are projected to go in the first round, headed by collegians Emerson Hancock and Max Meyer and preps Jared Kelley and Mick Abel.

[Brownie19]

KG - I think you're just really overestimating how long it would take an elite HS kid like Veen to reach that Majors.

 

Yelich (who Veen's been compared to) was drafted in 2010 and reached the majors in 2013 and became a full time starter in 2014 at age 22.

 

J Upton - drafted 2005, debuted in 2007 and full time starter in 2008

 

Correa - drafted 2012, full time starter in 2015

 

Jarred Kelenic - drafted 2018, probably would have reached AAA this year and the majors in 2021

 

 

Obviously this is no guarantee, but to assume 6 years is a bit odd.

[Boxcar]

I think both scenarios would be a win for the Blue Jays at #5.

If you get a #2 starter behind Nate Pearson or a corner bat giving you 4-5 WAR every year you've won in the draft.

There's no way to accurately project the future, so it's pretty much a guessing game on both performance and health.

 

We're more trying to avoid this scenario:

 

 

 

Teams don't want to be the one that took Nick Gordon/Alex Jackson/Jeff Hoffman/Max Pentecost (ouch) when Aaron Nola, Trea Turner, and Matt Chapman were still on the table.

It's easy with hindsight, but this practically happens every year.

Landing that 3-6 WAR player vs the org guy that doesn't make triple-A can make or break a rebuild.

And yeah there's still a likelihood Zac Veen can arrive much sooner than 4 years if he rakes in the minors.

But I agree I prefer Hancock and Meyer over Asa Lacy if we are taking college pitching.

 

Damn, that Chapman pick was clutch

[metafour]

KG - I think you're just really overestimating how long it would take an elite HS kid like Veen to reach that Majors.

 

Yelich (who Veen's been compared to) was drafted in 2010 and reached the majors in 2013 and became a full time starter in 2014 at age 22.

 

J Upton - drafted 2005, debuted in 2007 and full time starter in 2008

 

Correa - drafted 2012, full time starter in 2015

 

Jarred Kelenic - drafted 2018, probably would have reached AAA this year and the majors in 2021

 

 

Obviously this is no guarantee, but to assume 6 years is a bit odd.

 

This. He has arguably the best plate discipline in the HS class, has performed, and the swing is pretty flawless. There is no reason to expect he wouldn't follow a Bichette-like path to the majors - he isn't a "project" in any sense. The upside of plus contact, power, and plate discipline from a 6'4/6'5 frame that isn't even maxed out yet is what makes him a realistic option over the college pitchers. I don't think it really matters whether he can stick in CF because the bat and arm play at RF.

[TheHurl]

I didn't realize that #5 has been the pick of death over the past 10 years.

 

2019 Riley Greene (The guy that is going to break the trend leading into this years pick)

2018 Jonathan India (my top 100 bust pick, but still looking legit)

2017 Kyle Wright (on his way to Busto)

2016 Corey Ray (passed Busto last year)

2015 Kyle Tucker (Projected to be a half win player this year)

2014 Nick Gordon (utility guy at best)

2013 Clint Frazier (429 PA's to the tune of negative WAR)

2012 Kyle Zimmer (a perfect KBO candidate)

2011 Bubba Starling (should join Zimmer)

2010 Drew Pomeranz (Not a terrible career, but I still think I'm disappointed if this pick develops into him...based on 2016 and 2017 Pom, I probably shouldn't be)

2009 Matt Hobgood (retired 5 years ago)

[Jimcanuck]

I didn't realize that #5 has been the pick of death over the past 10 years.

 

2019 Riley Greene (The guy that is going to break the trend leading into this years pick)

2018 Jonathan India (my top 100 bust pick, but still looking legit)

2017 Kyle Wright (on his way to Busto)

2016 Corey Ray (passed Busto last year)

2015 Kyle Tucker (Projected to be a half win player this year)

2014 Nick Gordon (utility guy at best)

2013 Clint Frazier (429 PA's to the tune of negative WAR)

2012 Kyle Zimmer (a perfect KBO candidate)

2011 Bubba Starling (should join Zimmer)

2010 Drew Pomeranz (Not a terrible career, but I still think I'm disappointed if this pick develops into him...based on 2016 and 2017 Pom, I probably shouldn't be)

2009 Matt Hobgood (retired 5 years ago)

 

wtf, man?

[Brownie19]

f*** Hurl - don't do that to us.

[Krylian]

I thought you guys were science and facts guys...not voodoo and bad mojo.

 

Other teams made bad selections at #5. That's all in the past.

The Jays last 5th overall pick was Vernon Wells.

[metafour]

I thought you guys were science and facts guys...not voodoo and bad mojo.

 

Other teams made bad selections at #5. That's all in the past.

The Jays last 5th overall pick was Vernon Wells.

 

Nah bro; the #5 overall pick is CURSED.

 

We're f***ed.

[Krylian]

Baseball needs to allow trading of all draft picks. It's time.

[Boxcar]

I didn't realize that #5 has been the pick of death over the past 10 years.

 

2019 Riley Greene (The guy that is going to break the trend leading into this years pick)

2018 Jonathan India (my top 100 bust pick, but still looking legit)

2017 Kyle Wright (on his way to Busto)

2016 Corey Ray (passed Busto last year)

2015 Kyle Tucker (Projected to be a half win player this year)

2014 Nick Gordon (utility guy at best)

2013 Clint Frazier (429 PA's to the tune of negative WAR)

2012 Kyle Zimmer (a perfect KBO candidate)

2011 Bubba Starling (should join Zimmer)

2010 Drew Pomeranz (Not a terrible career, but I still think I'm disappointed if this pick develops into him...based on 2016 and 2017 Pom, I probably shouldn't be)

2009 Matt Hobgood (retired 5 years ago)

 

I like how Hurl stopped at 2009. Wouldn't want anyone to see who got drafted in 2008. Or 2007, who was really good until injuries derailed his career. Or 2006 who happens to be a Jay alum and fan favourite. Or 2005, the Hebrew Hammer.

[max silver]

I like how Hurl stopped at 2009. Wouldn't want anyone to see who got drafted in 2008.

 

Giants just missed out on the opportunity to draft Brian Matusz.

[Boxcar]

Tucker is also not projected to be a half win player this year and that's by Steamer which is always extremely conservative when it comes to young players. zips (which sucks, admittedly) has him at 3.3 WAR.

 

Also, Kyle Wright will probably end up as a #3ish guy. Certainly not bust territory.

 

India looks pretty good so far.

 

So that's Zimmer (injuries, TINSTAAP), Ray, Gordon, Frazier maybe, Starling and Hobgood. 6/11 were busts. I'd do a comparison with #4 and #3, but I suspect the success rate is similar and I can't be bothered.

 

Hurl is, and I know he hates this word, retarded

[BlueRocky]

I didn't realize that #5 has been the pick of death over the past 10 years.

 

2019 Riley Greene (The guy that is going to break the trend leading into this years pick)

2018 Jonathan India (my top 100 bust pick, but still looking legit)

2017 Kyle Wright (on his way to Busto)

2016 Corey Ray (passed Busto last year)

2015 Kyle Tucker (Projected to be a half win player this year)

2014 Nick Gordon (utility guy at best)

2013 Clint Frazier (429 PA's to the tune of negative WAR)

2012 Kyle Zimmer (a perfect KBO candidate)

2011 Bubba Starling (should join Zimmer)

2010 Drew Pomeranz (Not a terrible career, but I still think I'm disappointed if this pick develops into him...based on 2016 and 2017 Pom, I probably shouldn't be)

2009 Matt Hobgood (retired 5 years ago)

 

This is actually pretty funny. I’m thinking most years there’s two or three guys that separate themselves and teams that pick #5 end up settling for the next best thing. Luckily there’s five or six guys this year that seem to be really good and could probably make top 3 in most other drafts.

 

But even in past years, there’s usually a stud to appear right behind the 5th pick, so it’s not like blue chippers were not on the table. Couple quick examples:

 

2019: CJ Abrams #6 (stud, probably top 4 if re-draft, some argue #2)

2018: Jarred Kelenic #6, Grayson Rodriguez #11, Jordan Groshans #12

2017: Adam Hasley #8, Keston Hiura #9, Jo Adell #10

2016: AJ Puk #6, Cal Quantrill #8, Matt Manning #9

2015: Andrew Benintendi #7

2014: Aaron Nola #7

2013: Austin Meadows #9

2012: Addison Russell #11

2011: Anthony Rendon #6, Francisco Lindor #8, Javier Baez #9, George Springer #11

Edited May 23, 2020 by BlueRocky

[burlingtonbandit]

This is actually pretty funny. IÂ’m thinking most years thereÂ’s two or three guys that separate themselves and teams that pick #5 end up settling for the next best thing. Luckily thereÂ’s five or six guys this year that seem to be really good and could probably make top 3 in most other drafts.

 

But even in past years, thereÂ’s usually a stud to appear right behind the 5th pick, so itÂ’s not like blue chippers were not on the table. Couple quick examples:

 

2019: CJ Abrams #6 (stud, probably top 4 if re-draft, some argue #2)

2018: Jarred Kelenic #6, Grayson Rodriguez #11, Jordan Groshans #12

2017: Adam Hasley #8, Keston Hiura #9, Jo Adell #10

2016: AJ Puk #6, Cal Quantrill #8, Matt Manning #9

2015: Andrew Benintendi #7

2014: Aaron Nola #7

2013: Austin Meadows #9

2012: Addison Russell #11

2011: Anthony Rendon #6, Francisco Lindor #8, Javier Baez #9, George Springer #11

 

That 2017 draft looks pretty crappy right now. Gore, Mckay, Huira, Adell and Pearson look good but other than that a ton of look to be busts in the first round.

[Jimcanuck]

That 2017 draft looks pretty crappy right now. Gore, Mckay, Huira, Adell and Pearson look good but other than that a ton of look to be busts in the first round.

 

Whereas the 2017 IFA signing group is pretty dang good.

 

Will be interesting to see where IFAs get picked if and when they get added to the draft.

[BlueRocky]

That 2017 draft looks pretty crappy right now. Gore, Mckay, Huira, Adell and Pearson look good but other than that a ton of look to be busts in the first round.

 

It’s still actually not that bad. Just from 1st round there’s three potential frontline pitchers in Pearson, Gore, and McKay.

 

Jo Adell and Keston Hiura look like studs.

There’s a couple guys with potential in Trevor Rogers, Clarke Schmidt, J.B. Bukauskas. Royce Lewis and Hunter Greene still could be something.

 

There’s a few names past the 1st round that made top 100 lists. 2017 will prob be slightly above average, with the top names tipping the scale a bit when it’s all said and done. Typically about half of the first round picks make the majors and even fewer become stars.