GDT: 2/4 Toronto@Cleveland 7:10pm

[Barkerfan23]

Team can't hit and adding one player in Guerrero won't make a lot of difference

 

Yep keep him down till next May to save service time.

[5ToolPhenom]

He's 100% opened some eyes. If he isn't in the MLB rotation, it will be so that he can be in the AAA rotation to be called back up. But honestly, I don't know how you'd demote him even for Buchholz at this point.

 

Keep in mind that he's flourished against 2 terrible offenses. Still nice to see, no doubt.

[5ToolPhenom]

In addition John, your are making a generalization. It makes a huge difference if the scenario is 2nd inning or 8th, what the score is,if you have JD, JB, EE coming up cerca 2015 or the 2019 Blue Jays hitting a collective .190 and have been no hit for 25 plus innings and scored like 10 runs the whole year..

 

Exactly. We had Giles in the pen and there was a good chance 1 run wins it. Considering the circumstance and who was at the plate, bunting was the sensible decision.

[saskjayfan]

Yep keep him down till next May to save service time.

 

maybe mid April 2021.

[Corporal Valdal]

maybe mid April 2021.

 

Lets be honest here if AA was still here he wouldn't be on the MLB roster until 2022

[Bobthe4th]

Hey Deadpool are you OK mate? You seemed really angry ITT, haha. It’s going to be a long season!

[Spanky99]

Hey Deadpool are you OK mate? You seemed really angry ITT, haha. It’s going to be a long season!

 

Deadpool is/was right, ITT.

[Deadpool]

And did we get run after he did swing the bat and the next batter swung the bat.. No we did not.

 

The percentages of a pass ball, sac fly, a fielders choice is so much more then a hit that will score the runner from 2nd on the 2019 Blue Jays. This is not the 2015 Blue Jays where I might not be so inclined to bunt.

 

Literally the math and actual real world scenarios have been tested

 

Runner on 2B with no outs has a run expectancy of 1.10, runner on 3B with 1 out has a run expectancy of 0.95

 

It's math, not an opinion.

 

Edited to link: https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

[Deadpool]

Hey Deadpool are you OK mate? You seemed really angry ITT, haha. It’s going to be a long season!

 

I turn 41 in 2 days and I'm not particularly thrilled by that

[Carlos Danger]

Literally the math and actual real world scenarios have been tested

 

Runner on 2B with no outs has a run expectancy of 1.10, runner on 3B with 1 out has a run expectancy of 0.95

 

It's math, not an opinion.

 

Edited to link: https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

 

Run expectancy is an average. When you are using averages in statistics you have some high number and some low numbers that give you that "average'.Basic math.

 

When calculating run expectancy, they are using metrics from teams like the 2015 Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox powerhouses, teams with Mike Trout and Harper etc... Good offensive teams and players that are averaged down made lower/ bylesser hitting teams/players.

 

The 2019 Blue Jays so far is NOT the high end of the data.. That is why I said if it was the 2015 Blue Jays, different story. The 2019 is the low end of the data that gets you that average.. The 2019 Blue Jays do not have a 1.10 expectancy of runs.. They suck, their smart % play 8th inning tie game is getting a run on an out..

 

Some of you guys need to get your head of of spread sheets and look at the real world.

 

Another example. Ricky Romero, left handed pitcher.. All the data going back to forever says you hit right handed hitters against lefties. The Rays realized due to the way Romero's pitches crossed the plate to lefties, lefties actually saw the ball better/hit better and stacked the line up with lefties vice righties..

 

This was a situation decision that made sense even if stats (which are collective averages) tell you different.

 

Plus, the decision was made by professional managers/team that do buy into analytics.. I think they might know more then some Fangraph fan boy nerds.

 

Except for PH Hansen.. Montoyo should be drug tested..

 

However, bunting in THAT situation with THE Team we have now WAS the smart move.

[Sorrow]

If Thornton is still dealing in 2-3 weeks when Borucki is ready to come off the DL and if say Bucholtz is looking like Bucholtz of 2018, do you option Borucki to AAA until someone is inevitably hurt?

[Carlos Danger]

If Thornton is still dealing in 2-3 weeks when Borucki is ready to come off the DL and if say Bucholtz is looking like Bucholtz of 2018, do you option Borucki to AAA until someone is inevitably hurt?

 

I was pondering the exact same scenario. I don't think it would hurt to give ACEucki an AAA start, just to get him back in the groove, but not with the plan of keeping him there until an injury. I also think between, Stroman, Sanchez, Shoemaker and Bucholtz, the likely hood of them all being healthy is slim..

 

We should put Clayton in the pen as a lefty and and have to hash out the 5th starter....

Edited April 6, 2019 by Carlos Danger

[Deadpool]

Run expectancy is an average. When you are using averages in statistics you have some high number and some low numbers that give you that "average'.Basic math.

 

When calculating run expectancy, they are using metrics from teams like the 2015 Blue Jays, Yankees and Red Sox powerhouses, teams with Mike Trout and Harper etc... Good offensive teams and players that are averaged down made lower/ bylesser hitting teams/players.

 

The 2019 Blue Jays so far is NOT the high end of the data.. That is why I said if it was the 2015 Blue Jays, different story. The 2019 is the low end of the data that gets you that average.. The 2019 Blue Jays do not have a 1.10 expectancy of runs.. They suck, their smart % play 8th inning tie game is getting a run on an out..

 

Some of you guys need to get your head of of spread sheets and look at the real world.

 

Another example. Ricky Romero, left handed pitcher.. All the data going back to forever says you hit right handed hitters against lefties. The Rays realized due to the way Romero's pitches crossed the plate to lefties, lefties actually saw the ball better/hit better and stacked the line up with lefties vice righties..

 

This was a situation decision that made sense even if stats (which are collective averages) tell you different.

 

Plus, the decision was made by professional managers/team that do buy into analytics.. I think they might know more then some Fangraph fan boy nerds.

 

Except for PH Hansen.. Montoyo should be drug tested..

 

However, bunting in THAT situation with THE Team we have now WAS the smart move.

 

If the team sucks, their odds of getting a runner in from third with 1 out is still lower than their odds of getting a runner in from 2nd with no outs. Again, the math does not lie, and the quality of the team is not relevant. This is real world data that includes great teams and s***** teams, it's not like the number crunchers just ignored all the bad teams when entering their data.

[Carlos Danger]

If the team sucks, their odds of getting a runner in from third with 1 out is still lower than their odds of getting a runner in from 2nd with no outs. Again, the math does not lie, and the quality of the team is not relevant. This is real world data that includes great teams and s***** teams, it's not like the number crunchers just ignored all the bad teams when entering their data.

 

You are making my point. The data includes good teams and s***** teams, hence the number is an average of good and s*****.. If you took good teams out, because so far the Jays do not qualify, what is the average? In that situation if you do not bunt, you need two to three hits that inning to score the runner. That includes the original double. I think (just going off memory) the Jays have had like 1 or maybe 2 innings where they had 2-3 hits in an inning in the whole season so far.

 

What metrics or trending have you seen in the past two games in Cleveland or the whole year for that matter, that tells you the probability of the Jays getting 2-3 hits in the 8th inning (set/up and closer territory) was more probable then them getting an out, that could at least score a run, move the runner over..?

Edited April 7, 2019 by Carlos Danger

[Abomination]

If the team sucks, their odds of getting a runner in from third with 1 out is still lower than their odds of getting a runner in from 2nd with no outs. Again, the math does not lie, and the quality of the team is not relevant. This is real world data that includes great teams and s***** teams, it's not like the number crunchers just ignored all the bad teams when entering their data.

 

It pains me to say it, but he's at least partially right. The aggregate data allows us to challenge established (and possibly inaccurate) strategies in general, but it is not correct to blindly apply it to specific situations. What matters in an individual situation is the likelihood for the players coming up in the game to get the runner in. I suspect the data would show that sometimes in individual situations it is correct to bunt, and most of the time it is not.

[Boxcar]

Literally the math and actual real world scenarios have been tested

 

Runner on 2B with no outs has a run expectancy of 1.10, runner on 3B with 1 out has a run expectancy of 0.95

 

It's math, not an opinion.

 

Edited to link: https://www.danblewett.com/run-expectancy-bunting-bad/

 

How many of those were just Spanky trying to proverbially hump your leg?

[Spanky99]

How many of those were just Spanky trying to proverbially hump your leg?

 

[Jaysareus]

Worst team in baseball

[Omar]

You are making my point. The data includes good teams and s***** teams, hence the number is an average of good and s*****.. If you took good teams out, because so far the Jays do not qualify, what is the average? In that situation if you do not bunt, you need two to three hits that inning to score the runner. That includes the original double. I think (just going off memory) the Jays have had like 1 or maybe 2 innings where they had 2-3 hits in an inning in the whole season so far.

 

What metrics or trending have you seen in the past two games in Cleveland or the whole year for that matter, that tells you the probability of the Jays getting 2-3 hits in the 8th inning (set/up and closer territory) was more probable then them getting an out, that could at least score a run, move the runner over..?

 

Honestly I think it is you who is missing the point.

 

1. Run expectancy is not a team stat, ie. good teams and s***** teams. It is a stat based on individual ab's of all players in the league to determine outcomes measured in runs. Bad teams can have good hitters and vice versa (Goins was on the 2015,16 Jays). Run expectancies have the same veracity for bad teams as they do for good teams.

 

2. The fact that run expectancy when a player is allowed to bat is higher than when he bunts is true irrespective of how good/bad the team is. On a s***** team team, yes the chances of a producing a run via a hit is lower than a good team, but it is still better than bunting for that same s***** team. A poor hitting team just moves down on the run expectancy scale, but their run expectancy via a bunt also moves down. It is all relative and not based on how good or bad a team is.

 

3. No one puts weight on metrics based on two games in Cleveland much less a season with 10 games played. Why would you even bring up such a weak point? (

)

 

4. Another glaring omission is that you fail to consider babip. With a runner in scoring position just putting the ball in play could yield a run. BABIP in mlb is somewhere around .300 year over year. That is why you swing the bat, EVERYTIME, because as Tercet will tell you, even Gurriel can get a hit if he puts the ball in play. Why give up those odds for even lower odds with a bunt? With a runner on second and no outs, it is unfathomable why anyone would chose to bunt.

 

“outs are a commodity. They are the currency by which the game is governed, and willfully giving up an out is never worth the extra base that a bunt can provide. It's trading a piece of gold for a piece of silver."

Greg Jayne