General 2019 Blue Jays Discussion Thread

[LGBJ29]

This team is nowhere near the mid 80s in wins. It would be a small miracle if they cracked 75.

 

So you'd be pretty confident in an Under 69.5 win total then?

[Krylian]

So you'd be pretty confident in an Under 69.5 win total then?

 

I think they'll fall somewhere in the 68-70 wins

Edited March 29, 2019 by Krylian

[Captain Adama]

I think till fall somewhere in the 68-70 wins

 

I think you're right here, maybe even in the low 70's.

[Jimcanuck]

19 games against the O's, that's 17-18 wins right there

[Krylian]

19 games against the O's, that's 17-18 wins right there

 

The Orioles aren't going to lose 150 games as much as you want them to.

[Jimcanuck]

The Orioles aren't going to lose 150 games as much as you want them to.

 

Of course, but they have a chance to be historically bad.

[P2F]

The Orioles won 47 games last year. Barring some significant prospect breakouts from guys like Mullins, Hays, and maybe Diaz, I think this team is considerably worse than last season's. Of course, it's baseball, so they could still go on to win 60+ games, but there's a legitimately good possibility that they win fewer games than last year's team.

[Krylian]

Of course, but they have a chance to be historically bad.

 

They were already awful last season (115 losses). The Jays beat them 14 times if I'm not mistaken, and they were still only able to get 73 wins. The Jays are not better this season... And there's no guarantee they're going to beat up on Baltimore. The Orioles are going to win some games... Not many... But some. And some of those are going to come against the Jays.

 

We can revisit in October and see how it played out. We both have our own theories.

[Jimcanuck]

They were already awful last season (115 losses). The Jays beat them 14 times if I'm not mistaken, and they were still only able to get 73 wins. The Jays are not better this season... And there's no guarantee they're going to beat up on Baltimore. The Orioles are going to win some games... Not many... But some. And some of those are going to come against the Jays.

 

We can revisit in October and see how it played out. We both have our own theories.

 

I said nothing about # of Jays wins. Was just taking the opportunity to diss the O's, which is encouraged around here.

[Krylian]

I said nothing about # of Jays wins. Was just taking the opportunity to diss the O's, which is encouraged around here.

 

I appreciate the Oriole dissing. Was just defending my Jays wins prediction.

 

If we can find some pitching for next season I think we can start seeing some results as early as 2020...I'm really eager to see how SRF, Perez, Paulino, Borucki, Pearson, Murphy, Thornton, et al do this season.

[LGBJ29]

I think they'll fall somewhere in the 68-70 wins

 

Fair enough I was going to suggest a small wager on that 69.5

 

I think that range you suggested is pretty accurate, I'm cautiously optimistic Charlie's Rays/analytics approach will lead us to a mid-high 70's win total

[The Iceman]

And a good Outfield away too, and maybe a second sacker

[Krylian]

Yeltsin Gudino traded to the Orioles for cash considerations.

 

More International Cap space??

[Krylian]

Fair enough I was going to suggest a small wager on that 69.5

 

I think that range you suggested is pretty accurate, I'm cautiously optimistic Charlie's Rays/analytics approach will lead us to a mid-high 70's win total

 

I'd be more than happy to see that. Considering that we've got a much younger roster that would likely mean that their development is coming along very well and they're producing.

[P2F]

Yeltsin Gudino traded to the Orioles for cash considerations.

 

More International Cap space??

 

The Jays are going hard in the paint for Yolbert Sanchez*.

 

*not a report or rumour, just my opinion

[Jimcanuck]

Probably talking to Yolbert while trying to complete a Pillar deal for more IFA cash

[Grant77]

What hate? I've been a fan since '85. Love this team. But I'm not gonna fool myself into believing something I don't believe. This is a bad team. Will they get better? Yes. They're headed in a very positive direction... But the record will be bad this season. They're just not a good ML club today.

 

You openly hope that the team fails over and over again. The best possible thing for this team would be winning season where the young guys develop. Losing 90 games will just put us into a never ending cycle of mediocrity. Young players don't develop well on s***** teams.

[Grant77]

We are not a good bullpen away from competing so I’m not going to get upset that we’ve spent minimal amounts on relievers.

 

Besides, unless you’re signing truly elite relievers, they are so volatile that the difference between dumpster diving and mid tier contracts is unpredictable. For nearly every DFA candidate that doesn’t work, there’s a Dominic Leone that has a good season out of nowhere and vice versa for more expensive relievers.

 

You want the team to be s*****, I get it.

 

I want to see as many wins as possible without any long term deals and upgrading the bullpen is the best way to do that. It's not even that we signed bad relievers. We didn't have enough warm bodies to fill the 'pen and we made some stupid panic signing to make up for it.

 

The FO made a mistake by not adding appropriate depth (which was available for cheap) and they should be called out for it. Guerra and Hudson have no business bring on a MLB team. If it were a guy with some potential then there wouldn't be an issue.

[Jimcanuck]

You openly hope that the team fails over and over again. The best possible thing for this team would be winning season where the young guys develop. Losing 90 games will just put us into a never ending cycle of mediocrity. Young players don't develop well on s***** teams.

 

BS, been lots of teams lost a shitload of games with young players that became stars

[Krylian]

You openly hope that the team fails over and over again. The best possible thing for this team would be winning season where the young guys develop. Losing 90 games will just put us into a never ending cycle of mediocrity. Young players don't develop well on s***** teams.

 

Not sure you understand what hope means. I 'think' they will be s*****... Because I don't think the talent currently on this team is good enough. Doesn't mean I want them to be s*****.

[Grant77]

Not sure you understand what hope means. I 'think' they will be s*****... Because I don't think the talent currently on this team is good enough. Doesn't mean I want them to be s*****.

 

You say that you want them to fail for a variety of reasons and you have said it many times. To each their own, but your version of fandom has always been a strange one.

[Grant77]

BS, been lots of teams lost a shitload of games with young players that became stars

 

We call those exceptions in the real world.

[Jimcanuck]

We call those exceptions in the real world.

 

lol, ridiculous

[Spanky99]

I'm with you Grant, aside from the pen, I don't think it's as big as an issue as you say. Norris and Tepera will be back soon. The volatility of them leaves me shrugging.

[Abomination]

Did the Sportsnet ticker just say we traded someone? Maybe I saw it wrong.

[Grant77]

lol, ridiculous

 

Alright Jim, you must be right. Young players will clearly develop better on crappy teams. They obviously have superior coaching and development teams to allow them to lose so many games.

[Abomination]

Did the Sportsnet ticker just say we traded someone? Maybe I saw it wrong.

 

Yep, we traded Yeltsin Gudino to the O's for $$$.

[Dick_Pole]

You want the team to be s*****, I get it.

 

I want to see as many wins as possible without any long term deals and upgrading the bullpen is the best way to do that. It's not even that we signed bad relievers. We didn't have enough warm bodies to fill the 'pen and we made some stupid panic signing to make up for it.

 

The FO made a mistake by not adding appropriate depth (which was available for cheap) and they should be called out for it. Guerra and Hudson have no business bring on a MLB team. If it were a guy with some potential then there wouldn't be an issue.

 

Agreed. 70 wins is better than 69 wins. 71 wins is better than 70 wins etc. Though I think you're mixing up Krylian's Eeyore-like pessimism with Jim's active cheering for failure because of his loser mentality that a team needs to tank for a high draft pick rather than drafting and developing players competently. Baseball needs draft lottery and some other kind of incentive for non-playoff teams to win per Boras so guys like Jim STFU. Actively cheering for your team to suck is the most f***ing annoying thing ever.

[Jimcanuck]

Alright Jim, you must be right. Young players will clearly develop better on crappy teams. They obviously have superior coaching and development teams to allow them to lose so many games.

 

I never said they develop better on crappy teams. You are claiming a crappy team is worse for a prospect.

 

- prospects have less of a leash on good teams, more likely to be up and down from the minors to the majors over a few years. eg. Kyle Tucker

- prospects on good teams may become complacent by the constant winning

- prospects will have longer leash on poor teams but may be discouraged by the losing

 

Arguments can be made both ways. If you have proof of your claim that prospects have worse outcomes from being on crappy teams, by all means, share.

 

You are basically saying Eloy is going to turn out worse from playing on the Chisox than he would playing on the Yankees.

[Boxcar]

I never said they develop better on crappy teams. You are claiming a crappy team is worse for a prospect.

 

- prospects have less of a leash on good teams, more likely to be up and down from the minors to the majors over a few years. eg. Kyle Tucker

- prospects on good teams may become complacent by the constant winning

- prospects will have longer leash on poor teams but may be discouraged by the losing

 

Arguments can be made both ways. If you have proof of your claim that prospects have worse outcomes from being on crappy teams, by all means, share.

 

You are basically saying Eloy is going to turn out worse from playing on the Chisox than he would playing on the Yankees.

 

Does it completely pass you by that some teams produce more viable MLB players than others? How many years have the Orioles been awful? The White Sox? The Twins? The Yankees consistently pump out good players despite always picking in the back half of the draft.

 

So to answer your question, yeah, odds are that Eloy Jimenez has a better career as a Yankee rather than a white Sock. Or Sox. Or however the hell you make that singular.