8/27 Blue Jays vs Orioles - Series Thread

[tercet]

Did you actually look up his medium and hart hit balls for August? Because they're at 80%, he's actually getting incredibly unlucky on his balls in play in august.

 

Keep digging terdicktuck

 

Yep I know 80% medium barrels is sustainable long term, as is his 456 babip, he was super unlucky in July.

[tercet]

It seems you're the one that doesn't understand a thing about variance. You're combating small sample size with small sample size. Gurriel's batter ball profile is likely not too different when his BABIP was in the .260s as during his one streak which normalized and swung too much in the opposite direction. It's almost like that's exactly how variance in a small sample looks like.

 

I've played 10~ million hands of poker in the last 14~ years and won hundreds of thousands of dollars. I've won alot in some stretches, and lost alot during some stretches. I know nothing about sample sizes and variance..

[Orgfiller]

Well guess what Teoscar regressed to the mean and is terrible?

 

Do you want to go through this same argument again and be wrong again?

 

Teoscar Hernandez is "terrible" because he's one of the worst outfielders in the league, not because his hitting regressed to his projections. If he was an average defender I'm sure people would be very happy with a league average hitter in his first full season in the league, whom we acquired for half a season of Francisco Liriano. People were excited about his potential because he hits the ball extremely hard and that's one of the things you kind of want hitters to do. With his ceiling literally being a poor man's Khris Davis it's obviously not as exciting. What exactly was I wrong about again?

[John_Havok]

Yep I know 80% medium barrels is sustainable long term, as is his 456 babip, he was super unlucky in July.

 

Thanks for confirming you didn't actually look up numbers and are continuing to talk out your ass.

 

When balls get hit hard, they falls for hits more often. A high babip when someone is killing the ball is not unlucky, nor is any hot or cold streak indicitive of true talent.

 

You don't understand variance at all.

[John_Havok]

I've played 10~ million hands of poker in the last 14~ years and won hundreds of thousands of dollars. I've won alot in some stretches, and lost alot during some stretches. I know nothing about sample sizes and variance..

 

You may understand variance in poker, but applying it to baseball sure isn't your strong suit. Maybe flashcards would help? Bright colours and big font?

[Orgfiller]

I've played > 10 million hands of poker in the last 14~ years and won hundreds of thousands of dollars. I've won alot in some stretches, and lost alot during some stretches. I know nothing about sample sizes and variance..

 

This literally tells me nothing other than you trying very hard to flex your e-peen. A lot of baseball players go on to become managers and front office executives, a lot of them played hundreds if not thousands of games and made millions in the process. That must make all of them experts at evaluating talent and making logical baseball decisions yeah?

 

It's like you don't understand that you're trying to combat illogical thinking with more of the same.

[P2F]

But ya know, never let facts get in the way of a terrible and idiotic nickname right?

 

Good ole terdicktuck

 

Thanks to you, I'm never going to look at turducken the same way again.

[John_Havok]

Thanks to you, I'm never going to look at turducken the same way again.

 

Lol. Terdicktucken?

[tercet]

Teoscar Hernandez is "terrible" because he's one of the worst outfielders in the league, not because his hitting regressed to his projections. If he was an average defender I'm sure people would be very happy with a league average hitter in his first full season in the league, whom we acquired for half a season of Francisco Liriano. People were excited about his potential because he hits the ball extremely hard and that's one of the things you kind of want hitters to do. With his ceiling literally being a poor man's Khris Davis it's obviously not as exciting. What exactly was I wrong about again?

 

Have you seen his line since May 1st? His batting line regressed to the mean bc his tactic of swinging at everything caught up to him and he was no longer getting cookies.

[Orgfiller]

Have you seen his line since May 1st? His batting line regressed to the mean bc his tactic of swinging at everything caught up to him and he was no longer getting cookies.

 

Jesus Christ

[tercet]

Thanks for confirming you didn't actually look up numbers and are continuing to talk out your ass.

 

When balls get hit hard, they falls for hits more often. A high babip when someone is killing the ball is not unlucky, nor is any hot or cold streak indicitive of true talent.

 

You don't understand variance at all.

 

His July numbers are unsustainable long term. Why do you not understand this?

[Orgfiller]

His July numbers are unsustainable long term. Why do you not understand this?

 

No one, including him, has suggested that his performance will continue as in the month of July you f***ing moron.

[tercet]

Jesus Christ

 

??? 229/286/433 6.8% 32.8%K is good ???

[tercet]

No one, including him, has suggested that his performance will continue as in the month of July you f***ing moron.

 

lol

[John_Havok]

His July numbers are unsustainable long term. Why do you not understand this?

 

When did I suggest it would?

[Orgfiller]

When did I suggest it would?

 

We're being trolled here right?

[John_Havok]

We're being trolled here right?

 

Nope. He's legit delusional, condescending and clueless. It's a deliciously entertaining combination.

[tercet]

When did I suggest it would?

 

By inferring that a 456babip over 75PA is unlucky.

[tercet]

We're being trolled here right?

 

Naw

[tercet]

Nope. He's legit delusional, condescending and clueless. It's a deliciously entertaining combination.

 

sigh

[John_Havok]

By inferring that a 456babip over 75PA is unlucky.

 

Learn the difference between infer and imply please.

 

Then re-read everything about those 75PA, the monstrous exit velo, the correlation to a higher babip that comes with said exit velo, and brush up on reading comprehension 101.

 

In no way did I IMPLY that July is his true talent level. I merely stated that when you murder baseballs, they fall for hits more often. A high babip is not "lucky" when you hit the ball really hard in a small sample size.

 

You INFERRED that I was stating it was sustainable. That's your problem. Perhaps if your head wasn't so far up Devon Travis' ass you'd be able to get a breath of fresh air.

[tercet]

Learn the difference between infer and imply please.

 

Sure you got me their, english is meh special1ty.

 

But seriously come on how can you say with a straight face that a 456 babip over 75 PA is unlucky?

[John_Havok]

Sure you got me their, english is meh special1ty.

 

But seriously come on how can you say with a straight face that a 456 babip over 75 PA is unlucky?

 

I resent the implication that I am saying anything with a straight face. I'm actually laughing my ass off at your cluelessness, even though you're so thoroughly convinced that you're providing some sort of revelation.

 

Flat earth society?

[tercet]

A high babip is not "lucky" when you hit the ball really hard in a small sample size.

 

This is simply where I disagree, and this is what our entire argument comes down to.

[Spanky99]

We're being trolled here right?

 

Nope. He's legit delusional, condescending and clueless. It's a deliciously entertaining combination.

 

Please IL that person, so I needn't read through that s*** again, thanks.

[John_Havok]

Please IL that person, so I needn't read through that s*** again, thanks.

 

Lol

[John_Havok]

This is simply where I disagree, and this is what our entire argument comes down to.

 

Well, i guess that's checkmate then because if you don't think line drives fall for hits more often than soft hit balls, I don't think there's much more to discuss. You're simply wrong.

 

The discussion of whether all those line drives are sustainable is a completely different conversation. But it's already proven that line drives fall for hits more often than any other type of ball in play. If you simply don't believe that, because reasons, then you're just wrong. Keep enjoying the flat earth.

[5ToolPhenom]

??? 229/286/433 6.8% 32.8%K is good ???

 

I'm with you. You've made some ballsy predictions and have been on point. Seems a lot of the folks here aren't giving you proper dues.

[John_Havok]

I'm with you. You've made some ballsy predictions and have been on point. Seems a lot of the folks here aren't giving you proper dues.

 

How is it ballsy to predict prospect failure when the vast majority of them fail? That's actually the complete opposite of ballsy.

[tercet]

Well, i guess that's checkmate then because if you don't think line drives fall for hits more often than soft hit balls, I don't think there's much more to discuss. You're simply wrong.

 

The discussion of whether all those line drives are sustainable is a completely different conversation. But it's already proven that line drives fall for hits more often than any other type of ball in play. If you simply don't believe that, because reasons, then you're just wrong. Keep enjoying the flat earth.

 

lol