Justin Smoak contract extension

[Maahfaace]

Uh oh, hindsight hero posting is escalating...

[jays4life19]

Leave the board forever

 

King. He was just joking.

[nmrch]

I see we're not really much into the whole process over results thing. Its wierd because Atkins and Shapiro pretty much embrace that philosophy but for some reason fans feel the need to defend them when they make blatantly idiotic moves like this just because they worked out

[Captain Adama]

I see we're not really much into the whole process over results thing. Its wierd because Atkins and Shapiro pretty much embrace that philosophy but for some reason fans feel the need to defend them when they make blatantly idiotic moves like this just because they worked out

 

They made the extension because their internal metrics found Smoak had a good batted ball and velocity profile. It was a low risk move (which admittedly I thought was puzzling at the time,) but now it looks genius.

 

I remember that a lot of posters before Smoak's breakout said that, "if this is Shatkins' worst move, that's pretty damn good."

 

I'll still say the same about Morales, even if they were to dump him in worst case scenario, it's not like his remaining salary is going to cripple the franchise.

[nmrch]

They made the extension because their internal metrics found Smoak had a good batted ball and velocity profile. It was a low risk move (which admittedly I thought was puzzling at the time,) but now it looks genius.

 

I remember that a lot of posters before Smoak's breakout said that, "if this is Shatkins' worst move, that's pretty damn good."

 

I'll still say the same about Morales, even if they were to dump him in worst case scenario, it's not like his remaining salary is going to cripple the franchise.

 

Oh common, there's no need for silly post hoc explanations like this. Plenty of flawed hitters around the league have turned into useful pieces since the flyball revolution began, just because Smoak randomly happens to be one of them doesn't mean Atkins and Shapiro made their decision believing that Smoak would turn out to be a very good hitter. If that was the case then why did they stop at just Smoak, why not try to pick any of the other numerous hitters who have since seen their careers turned around in the flyball revolution. Or is the argument that every team that "found" hidden gems in flawed players also had "internal metrics" that showed that they would turn into good hitter?

 

You see how silly that sounds, I'm a big fan of Atkins and Shapiro, just because you like how they usually make decisions doesn't mean you have to defend every last one of them.

[Deadpool]

Oh common, there's no need for silly post hoc explanations like this. Plenty of flawed hitters around the league have turned into useful pieces since the flyball revolution began, just because Smoak randomly happens to be one of them doesn't mean Atkins and Shapiro made their decision believing that Smoak would turn out to be a very good hitter. If that was the case then why did they stop at just Smoak, why not try to pick any of the other numerous hitters who have since seen their careers turned around in the flyball revolution. Or is the argument that every team that "found" hidden gems in flawed players also had "internal metrics" that showed that they would turn into good hitter?

 

You see how silly that sounds, I'm a big fan of Atkins and Shapiro, just because you like how they usually make decisions doesn't mean you have to defend every last one of them.

 

They signed Smoak using the same metrics (I assume) that they signed Morales and traded for Grichuk, exit velocity for days.

[jays4life19]

They signed Smoak using the same metrics (I assume) that they signed Morales and traded for Grichuk, exit velocity for days.

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard

 

Grichuk was 6th in Barrel percentage last year, the Jays really seem to target guys who hit a ton of barrels

[nmrch]

They signed Smoak using the same metrics (I assume) that they signed Morales and traded for Grichuk, exit velocity for days.

 

but Grichuk and Morales actually have real world results though, they weren't complete trash(Smoak was negative career WAR for the first 6 seasons of his career) and you signed them in the hope of finding some hidden value. Grichuk is an extremely flawed player but we know he has useful skills, his defence and power that allows him to get by despite pitch recognition and contact ability.

 

I don't see how they're analogous at all, the truth is there is plenty of teams got lucky in the flyball revolution and randomly found a useful player. I know sports fans don't like to accept things like randomness and luck, they always want to have nice and clean explanations but i personally enjoy that aspect of Baseball. This retroactive justification for giving out that kind of guaranteed money for a completely useless player is just wrong.

[Captain Adama]

Oh common, there's no need for silly post hoc explanations like this. Plenty of flawed hitters around the league have turned into useful pieces since the flyball revolution began, just because Smoak randomly happens to be one of them doesn't mean Atkins and Shapiro made their decision believing that Smoak would turn out to be a very good hitter. If that was the case then why did they stop at just Smoak, why not try to pick any of the other numerous hitters who have since seen their careers turned around in the flyball revolution. Or is the argument that every team that "found" hidden gems in flawed players also had "internal metrics" that showed that they would turn into good hitter?

 

You see how silly that sounds, I'm a big fan of Atkins and Shapiro, just because you like how they usually make decisions doesn't mean you have to defend every last one of them.

 

Like I said, I didn't defend the Smoak move at the time, and I soured pretty quickly on the Morales deal before that season started. (The FO judged the market really poorly that year) but the key was that if they didn't work out, no big deal. Pennies lost there.

 

Where you're wrong here, is that you implied Smoak was part of the flyball revolution. Which could not be further from the truth. Characteristics of those players involve trading average and increasing strikeouts for more power. Smoak on the other hand, dropped his K rate by his increased contact rates, decreased Z swing rate, and his natural power followed.