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2016 Top Prospects Lists thread

King

By King
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Captain Adama FCL Blue Jays

Captain Adama

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
No, the forum participants have no idea what they're talking about.

They get all of their information from other writers, and the little bit of statistics that is available.

 

And then when a writer goes against the other writers, or the stats, they think he is a complete clown, without knowing any of the ranking methodology.

It's also important to recognize the difference between real-life prospects and fantasy prospects. Buxton is a fantastic fantasy prospect, in real-life, not quite as much.

 

Lol @ Buxton being a better fantasy prospect than a real life one.

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Cyborg FCL Blue Jays

Cyborg

Verified Member
Posted
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Lol @ Buxton being a better fantasy prospect than a real life one.

 

That was his purposeful mistake to let you know it wasn't a serious post.

AdamGreenwood Dunedin Blue Jays

AdamGreenwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
That was his purposeful mistake to let you know it wasn't a serious post.

 

No, I just screwed up, and got it backwards.

I meant he's a great real life prospect, and not that great at fantasy.

 

Attention to detail is not my strong suit.

P2F Toronto Blue Jays

P2F

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
No, I just screwed up, and got it backwards.

I meant he's a great real life prospect, and not that great at fantasy.

 

Attention to detail is not my strong suit.

 

20/40 upside.

Spanky99 GOAT

Spanky99

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
No, I just screwed up, and got it backwards.

I meant he's a great real life prospect, and not that great at fantasy.

 

Attention to detail is not my strong suit.

 

AG- "Gazooo, where are you?"

 

TGG- "Hello, dumb-dumb..."

Boxcar All-Star

Boxcar

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'll think about it. I'm not sure if KATOH has ironed out enough of its kinks yet though.

 

There are guys very high on scouty lists who end up doing nothing every year. I don't think an imperfect formula necessarily deserves exclusion.

AdamGreenwood Dunedin Blue Jays

AdamGreenwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
I'm keeping a compiled list of the "Big 6" Top 100 Prospect Rankings here:

 

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AYHdbnvRKdiWSf40UwfPj37Stm7mZKCorcZCZZzNhSY/edit?usp=sharing

 

 

Anyone have any suggestions on how to improve it?

 

1) Currently, to arrive at the average, you're dividing by two instead of by 3.

2) I don't understand your points column. I usually scale the rankings to a common base (ie 100), add in a variable for players who don't appear on the list (usually 150), sum them up, and give them a score based on reverse rankings.

3) Add a binary column to distinguish between players that have already played, and those that have never played in MLB.

4) This looks like a lot of work. It's easier to just copy/paste the lists (format the extras out) and then do a lookup table.

5) You may want to consider giving different top 100 lists different weightings.

6) You could add Prospect 361. They're not huge, but they focus exclusively on milb. Not sure about KATOH.

 

This is awesome though. I'm going to export this to Excel to do my prospect rankings.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Include 2080baseball

 

Yeah their list should instantly leapfrog BP as the best scoutsy list

P2F Toronto Blue Jays

P2F

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
1) Currently, to arrive at the average, you're dividing by two instead of by 3.

2) I don't understand your points column. I usually scale the rankings to a common base (ie 100), add in a variable for players who don't appear on the list (usually 150), sum them up, and give them a score based on reverse rankings.

3) Add a binary column to distinguish between players that have already played, and those that have never played in MLB.

4) This looks like a lot of work. It's easier to just copy/paste the lists (format the extras out) and then do a lookup table.

5) You may want to consider giving different top 100 lists different weightings.

6) You could add Prospect 361. They're not huge, but they focus exclusively on milb. Not sure about KATOH.

 

This is awesome though. I'm going to export this to Excel to do my prospect rankings.

 

1. It was divided by 2 because I had only finished incorporating two lists at the time you looked at the spreadsheet. I just finished adding KATOH and have now divided by 3 to reflect that

 

2. The points column is scored as follows: #1 ranking = 100 pts, #2 ranking = 99 pts... #100 ranking = 1 pt, NR = 0 pts, etc. Pretty simple, I know, but I'll look into something potentially a little more complex later on. I just started this this afternoon, and am more focused on getting the content in place initially and will tweak as I go.

 

3. I'm not sure that #3 really adds anything to this, but maybe I'm missing something.

 

4. I wouldn't say ​a lot of work, but it does take some time to input the data. Luckily, I enjoy nerding out with spreadsheets.

 

5. I've thought about that. Maybe with some group input, we can decide on how to properly weight each list. Otherwise, I'm fine with all being equal.

 

6. I'm not a fan of Prospect361. They are not reputable at all, though I appreciate the suggestion.

 

Thank you, by all means go ahead.

P2F Toronto Blue Jays

P2F

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Include 2080baseball

 

Yup, good call. Forget about them momentarily, but have been looking forward to their list.

 

Thanks.

P2F Toronto Blue Jays

P2F

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Past years. Then we can compare WAR between lists

 

Nice suggestion, but that would more than likely be something potentially further down the road. Sounds like a boatload of work.

Cyborg FCL Blue Jays

Cyborg

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
Nice suggestion, but that would more than likley be something potentially further down the road. Sounds like a boatload of work.

Your points method is better than Greenwood's.

Laika Cooperstown

Laika

Community Moderator
Posted
Posted
Anyone know when 2080 is dropping their list? The site just says 'check back soon'.

 

2080 isn't doing standard top 100 / top 10 lists. Not sure what they're doing yet but hopefully it's refreshing.

AdamGreenwood Dunedin Blue Jays

AdamGreenwood

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
1. It was divided by 2 because I had only finished incorporating two lists at the time you looked at the spreadsheet. I just finished adding KATOH and have now divided by 3 to reflect that

 

2. The points column is scored as follows: #1 ranking = 100 pts, #2 ranking = 99 pts... #100 ranking = 1 pt, NR = 0 pts, etc. Pretty simple, I know, but I'll look into something potentially a little more complex later on. I just started this this afternoon, and am more focused on getting the content in place initially and will tweak as I go.

 

3. I'm not sure that #3 really adds anything to this, but maybe I'm missing something.

 

4. I wouldn't say ​a lot of work, but it does take some time to input the data. Luckily, I enjoy nerding out with spreadsheets.

 

5. I've thought about that. Maybe with some group input, we can decide on how to properly weight each list. Otherwise, I'm fine with all being equal.

 

6. I'm not a fan of Prospect361. They are not reputable at all, though I appreciate the suggestion.

 

Thank you, by all means go ahead.

 

Cool. Sounds like you've thought this out well. Appreciate you doing this as it will save me some work when doing prospect rankings.

My only concern of your points method is that I feel a guy who is #100 on a prospect list is valued much more than a guy who doesn't appear at all. Whereas, in your system, the difference of 0 and 1 points is not very much.

P2F Toronto Blue Jays

P2F

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Keith Law's list will be released on Thursday, and BA will release its list on Friday (the top 50 airing on MLB Network).

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