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[Boxcar]

Wait. What pick are we on?

 

Abom is after ace, you're after abom, I'm after you. I have 56 so that means Ace is pick 53.

[jays_fever]

51] Barney's- Robert Stephenson Cin

52] Jaysfever- Willy Adames TB

53] Ace/JG-

54] Abom-

55] J4L19-

56] Boxy-

57] Frenchsoup-

58] Cyborg-

59] Greenwood-

60] BTS-

 

I think is the order

[ace3113]

Michael Fulmer, RHP, DET.

[BTS]

Michael Fulmer, RHP, DET.

 

Die

[jays4life19]

Who got picked 46-50?

[Boxcar]

45] Dinger- 1B Bobby Bradley CLE

46] Frenchsoup- Vlad Guerrero Jr

47] Boxy- Derek Fisher

48] JG34- Yusniel Diaz

49] TRS- Gleyber Torres

[Boxcar]

And GD took Hunter Harvey at 50

[z3r0s]

That's some nice value on Harvey

[jays4life19]

Can someone take my pick again?

[z3r0s]

I should be around today if you want to send them to me (not in the league, no conflict anywhere)

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't pick again til the 70s, I can take picks all day.

[Dr. Dinger]

Fresh 1B Prospect Hype from BP!

 

Josh Bell, Pirates

 

We all know the deal with Bell by now. He’s been on the fantasy radar ever since he was labeled a draft steal back in 2011, and dynasty leaguers have been eagerly tracking his progress. While Bell has yet to produce prodigious numbers at any stop, his smooth, linear progression through the minors is a good sign, and though the power has yet to truly surface he’s the owner of a career .305 average and .375 BABIP. I wouldn’t expect Bell to hit quite at that level in the majors -- and certainly not at first -- but we’re looking at a potential four-category contributor here, a guy who can hit .280-plus and flirt with 20 homers, sort of like Brandon Belt or Eric Hosmer. He’s also a player who should flirt with outfield eligibility throughout the early parts of his career. None of this will make Bell a stud, but it will make him a starter in most deep dynasty leagues. He just won’t be a savior. Basically, what I’m saying is your team is unlikely to be saved by the Bell.

 

 

A.J. Reed, Astros

 

Listing Reed as a name for 2016 is a bit aggressive—he has just 237 PA above High-A—but all he’s done since joining the professional ranks is mash. Reed smashed 33 homers between High-A and Double-A last season, and while about two-thirds of those came in the California League, no one doubts Reed’s plus-plus power. What some do doubt is Reed’s ability to make contact, and it’s true that he’s likely to be a big-time swing-and-miss guy throughout his career. It’s hard not to fall for the allure of 30-plus homers, though, and while Reed is far from a sure thing, he has the carrying tool, potential contextual factors, and path to playing time to be a fantasy stalwart.

 

 

Matt Olson, Athletics

 

I view Olson quite similarly to Reed (you could call Reed an Olson twin) from a fantasy POV, albeit with a slightly worse hit tool and worse potential contextual factors. Olson also possesses the ability to challenge for 30 bombs, also struggles with the strikeout and could also start seeing the majors in late 2016. He’s showed impressive patience throughout the minors, but the soon-to-be 22-year-old has struggled to hit for a decent average and I think he carries more risk than his Astros counterpart. I still like Olson quite a bit and think he’s a decent buy-lowish candidate in dynasty leagues right now, but there’s definitely a chance his hit tool limits him to a reserve role.

 

 

Bobby Bradley, Indians

 

And so ends our popless 1B prospect portion of the program. Enter Bradley, a powerful, compact first baseman who could challenge for 30 bombs some day. He’s eons away as a player with all of nine PA in High-A, but there’s a really good chance he’s a top-three fantasy first-base prospect at this time next year. If you can buy in at the ground floor, do so immediately.

[jays4life19]

I should be around today if you want to send them to me (not in the league, no conflict anywhere)

 

Sent

[z3r0s]

Sent

 

one name lol.

 

Assuming he's there, I will get your pick in

[jays4life19]

one name lol.

 

Assuming he's there, I will get your pick in

 

I'm up in two, If abom picks my guy i will log in from work and figure something out.

[Boxcar]

Fresh 1B Prospect Hype from BP!

 

Josh Bell, Pirates

 

We all know the deal with Bell by now. He’s been on the fantasy radar ever since he was labeled a draft steal back in 2011, and dynasty leaguers have been eagerly tracking his progress. While Bell has yet to produce prodigious numbers at any stop, his smooth, linear progression through the minors is a good sign, and though the power has yet to truly surface he’s the owner of a career .305 average and .375 BABIP. I wouldn’t expect Bell to hit quite at that level in the majors -- and certainly not at first -- but we’re looking at a potential four-category contributor here, a guy who can hit .280-plus and flirt with 20 homers, sort of like Brandon Belt or Eric Hosmer. He’s also a player who should flirt with outfield eligibility throughout the early parts of his career. None of this will make Bell a stud, but it will make him a starter in most deep dynasty leagues. He just won’t be a savior. Basically, what I’m saying is your team is unlikely to be saved by the Bell.

 

 

A.J. Reed, Astros

 

Listing Reed as a name for 2016 is a bit aggressive—he has just 237 PA above High-A—but all he’s done since joining the professional ranks is mash. Reed smashed 33 homers between High-A and Double-A last season, and while about two-thirds of those came in the California League, no one doubts Reed’s plus-plus power. What some do doubt is Reed’s ability to make contact, and it’s true that he’s likely to be a big-time swing-and-miss guy throughout his career. It’s hard not to fall for the allure of 30-plus homers, though, and while Reed is far from a sure thing, he has the carrying tool, potential contextual factors, and path to playing time to be a fantasy stalwart.

 

 

Matt Olson, Athletics

 

I view Olson quite similarly to Reed (you could call Reed an Olson twin) from a fantasy POV, albeit with a slightly worse hit tool and worse potential contextual factors. Olson also possesses the ability to challenge for 30 bombs, also struggles with the strikeout and could also start seeing the majors in late 2016. He’s showed impressive patience throughout the minors, but the soon-to-be 22-year-old has struggled to hit for a decent average and I think he carries more risk than his Astros counterpart. I still like Olson quite a bit and think he’s a decent buy-lowish candidate in dynasty leagues right now, but there’s definitely a chance his hit tool limits him to a reserve role.

 

 

Bobby Bradley, Indians

 

And so ends our popless 1B prospect portion of the program. Enter Bradley, a powerful, compact first baseman who could challenge for 30 bombs some day. He’s eons away as a player with all of nine PA in High-A, but there’s a really good chance he’s a top-three fantasy first-base prospect at this time next year. If you can buy in at the ground floor, do so immediately.

 

I don't know his contact rate but Reed's minor league K rate is under 20% for his career lol. Too much swing and miss brah

[Dr. Dinger]

I don't know his contact rate but Reed's minor league K rate is under 20% for his career lol. Too much swing and miss brah

 

Yeah I'm not sure where he's getting that from. Maybe he has recognition issues on breaking balls despite a very modest K rate, or maybe this author has a different understanding of what a good K rate is than I do. I think I read one time that Reed has an 'arm bar', BP doesn't like that -- although it hasn't ruined Maikel Franco yet.

 

I love, love, love Reed's profile up and down. If there's one prospect in this draft who I think can be a .400 OBP, 35 HR guy, it's Reed.

[Boxcar]

Yeah I'm not sure where he's getting that from. Maybe he has recognition issues on breaking balls despite a very modest K rate, or maybe this author has a different understanding of what a good K rate is than I do. I think I read one time that Reed has an 'arm bar', BP doesn't like that -- although it hasn't ruined Maikel Franco yet.

 

I love, love, love Reed's profile up and down. If there's one prospect in this draft who I think can be a .400 OBP, 35 HR guy, it's Reed.

 

Yeah. Very Goldschmidt feel about him.

 

This report forced me to go back to his page and now I kinda wish I'd just taken him at 7 rather than allow Benintendi despair to take over.

 

I think this is a standard for BP. Any power guy has to have swing and miss issues unless his k rate is ~10%. It's also very possible that they simply don't know that anything around 20% is average.

 

It's just weird because, by all accounts, Reed should be a superior prospect to Joey Gallo and I don't recall enormous concern when Gallo was striking out more than twice as often as Reed. Where da hype at

[Dr. Dinger]

Yeah. Very Goldschmidt feel about him.

 

This report forced me to go back to his page and now I kinda wish I'd just taken him at 7 rather than allow Benintendi despair to take over.

 

I think this is a standard for BP. Any power guy has to have swing and miss issues unless his k rate is ~10%. It's also very possible that they simply don't know that anything around 20% is average.

 

It's just weird because, by all accounts, Reed should be a superior prospect to Joey Gallo and I don't recall enormous concern when Gallo was striking out more than twice as often as Reed. Where da hype at

 

I think it basically boils down to: Gallo has 80 grade power, which is always going to be the sexiest tool. Reed is more like 60-70, but is a much better hitter overall. In reality, Reed is probably going to be able to apply his power much more frequently. A 450 ft home run isn't worth any more than a 400 ft home run to me. In general, they just don't give much hype to 1B prospects ever. I think Reed is being hilariously overlooked as a dynasty monster. His MiLB numbers really put Rizzo to shame.

[Dr. Dinger]

I can say this now, but if Benintendi and Mazara were both gone at 5, I would have taken Reed, even over Giolito. I wasn't going to take Benintendi, but I would have swapped spots with Boxy and targeted Reed at 7.

[Dr. Dinger]

The ceiling for Reed is something like Lance Berkman.

[SpeedyGose]

I think it basically boils down to: Gallo has 80 grade power, which is always going to be the sexiest tool. Reed is more like 60-70, but is a much better hitter overall. In reality, Reed is probably going to be able to apply his power much more frequently. A 450 ft home run isn't worth any more than a 400 ft home run to me. In general, they just don't give much hype to 1B prospects ever. I think Reed is being hilariously overlooked as a dynasty monster. His MiLB numbers really put Rizzo to shame.

 

Have to think part of the Gallo hype was also because he looks like he can play a passable 3B, not too often 1B get super hype. I can't remember the last time one did, tbh

[Boxcar]

The ceiling for Reed is something like Lance Berkman.

 

Paul Goldschmidt minors: .317/.407/.620, 23% k rate, 13% bb rate

AJ Reed minors: .324/.415/.583, 19% k rate, 13% bb rate

 

f***, I'm despairing myself.

[Boxcar]

Have to think part of the Gallo hype was also because he looks like he can play a passable 3B, not too often 1B get super hype. I can't remember the last time one did, tbh

 

Big Hos. Justin Smoak.

[Dr. Dinger]

Have to think part of the Gallo hype was also because he looks like he can play a passable 3B, not too often 1B get super hype. I can't remember the last time one did, tbh

 

Gallo does have a plus-plus arm, that's for sure.

[Dr. Dinger]

Paul Goldschmidt minors: .317/.407/.620, 23% k rate, 13% bb rate

AJ Reed minors: .324/.415/.583, 19% k rate, 13% bb rate

 

f***, I'm despairing myself.

 

Only thing is, Goldy stole more bases this year than Reed will have in his career. But yeah, the kid will probably be a big-time masher.

[Boxcar]

Holy f***.

 

AJ Reed is 6'4"/240 lbs

 

and strikes out at a below average rate.

[Dr. Dinger]

Have to think part of the Gallo hype was also because he looks like he can play a passable 3B, not too often 1B get super hype. I can't remember the last time one did, tbh

 

The last 1B that really even made it into the the Top 15 or so of prospect lists was Freddie Freeman. Goldy got largely ignored, Rizzo got some love but not nearly what he deserved with what we know now.

[Dr. Dinger]

Holy f***.

 

AJ Reed is 6'4"/240 lbs

 

and strikes out at a below average rate.

 

I will lose sleep over him if it turns out that Mazara is just, like, Khris Davis or something.

[Boxcar]

The last 1B that really even made it into the the Top 15 or so of prospect lists was Freddie Freeman. Goldy got largely ignored, Rizzo got some love but not nearly what he deserved with what we know now.

 

Greg Bird was ignored too. Think he made a top 100 once on the back end.

 

1B only prospects: The new market inefficiency? I've been ahead of the curve for years.