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Is Estrada the right choice for tonight?

reedjohnsonfan

By reedjohnsonfan
in Toronto Blue Jays Talk

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Is Estrada the right guy?  

42 members have voted

  1. 1. Is Estrada the right guy?

    • Yes, Estrada!
      33
    • No, Dickey should go
      9

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reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

Verified Member
Posted
Posted

Surprisingly, there haven't been many people complaining about this decision. Both guys have been great for the Jays in the second half, but if you look at the season as a whole:

 

Dickey 3.92 DRA, 4.72 xFIP but once again his ERA outperformed his xFIP which could be the case with knuckleballers. Also he seems to struggle in cold or windy weather which won't be the a problem tonight.

 

Estrada 3.40 DRA, 4.93 xFIP but I think it's clear he has an excellent changeup which (correct if wrong) may help him outperform some of his peripherals. When you consider the guy has a GB rate 10% lower than Dickey's in the bandbox of Texas there is a very good case for him being the wrong choice.

 

One thing to consider is that the knuckleball might have a better chance of being completely ineffective so maybe Dickey has a better chance of gas-canning, but I'm not convinced that's the case. Does anyone think Estrada is the wrong choice here? The season hinges on a guy who people have been waiting to blow up for months now, let's hope tonight is not the night!

nextyear Draft Eligible

nextyear

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
I absolutely agree with Estrada starting tonight. However, if it were Dickey then I would agree with that choice also. It is a tossup in my opinion.
reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

Verified Member
Posted
  • Author
Posted
I absolutely agree with Estrada starting tonight. However, if it were Dickey then I would agree with that choice also. It is a tossup in my opinion.

 

That could be true. The thing is not many people are complaining right now, but if Estrada gets lit tonight the pitch forks will come out.

EMK19 College Ball

EMK19

Verified Member
Posted
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To me both starters have the same fault of 1) being liable to give up homers at any time and 2) suddenly lose control and walk batters at any time. Both have potential to be dominant if they're on their game. With lot of things being equal between the two I feel that Estrada's a safer bet in that he is easier to catch and has less potential for wild pitches/past balls. With Rangers running and playing the small ball quite well so far, giving extra bases may not be the best idea vs. them. Although another thing to consider is that Navarro will be starting this game so it'd be very difficult to flexibly utilize Martin as a PH unless we are willing to lose the DH very late in the game.
BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
That could be true. The thing is not many people are complaining right now, but if Estrada gets lit tonight the pitch forks will come out.

 

I don't think so on pitch forks. I think the knuckleball is just too erratic, and we have seen that scary movie many times the last 3 seasons. ,

 

Most fans know Price/Stro not available to start so they will live with change up/FB Estrada and hope the LHH don't tee off with runners on base.

nextyear Draft Eligible

nextyear

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
If we don't score runs we won't win either way

 

This is a good point. If the Blue Jays come out with bats ablazing then who pitches tonight probably won't matter.

reedjohnsonfan Dunedin Blue Jays

reedjohnsonfan

Verified Member
Posted
  • Author
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I don't think so on pitch forks. I think the knuckleball is just too erratic, and we have seen that scary movie many times the last 3 seasons. ,

 

Most fans know Price/Stro not available to start so they will live with change up/FB Estrada and hope the LHH don't tee off with runners on base.

 

I think many casuals will be calling Wilner upset about the decision if Estrada pitches poorly and they lose, but we'll see (actually we won't because I try not to listen to that garbage anymore).

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
If they keep on swinging for the fences, the offense won't be back.

 

Swinging hard got them here. Our Big 5 were 3 for 27 in game 2 and that has to change for us to win. The players know this, and if they execute today like they can, we are going to game 4.

intentional wok Vancouver Canadians

intentional wok

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
That could be true. The thing is not many people are complaining right now, but if Estrada gets lit tonight the pitch forks will come out.

 

The pitchforks will come out in general if the team loses but I don't think many will argue with the Estrada start. Despite his effective second half, the rust on Dickey's reputation probably still isn't gone for a lot of people (me included, admittedly).

jaysblue Buffalo Bisons

jaysblue

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Would be disgusting if we leave without winning a single game

 

And all the casuals will forget about the Blue Jays and turn their sorry souls to watching hockey and the Leafs. They'll be back for the Home Opener, Canada Day, giveaway days, and in August/September if the Jays are in the postseason race again.

RealAccountant Dunedin Blue Jays

RealAccountant

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
And all the casuals will forget about the Blue Jays and turn their sorry souls to watching hockey and the Leafs. They'll be back for the Home Opener, Canada Day, giveaway days, and in August/September if the Jays are in the postseason race again.

 

Casuals ruined the experience for me. Too much jinx

500LevelSTH Draft Eligible

500LevelSTH

Verified Member
Posted
Posted
And all the casuals will forget about the Blue Jays and turn their sorry souls to watching hockey and the Leafs. They'll be back for the Home Opener, Canada Day, giveaway days, and in August/September if the Jays are in the postseason race again.

 

You and others here and those ive met at the do e worry too much about casual fans. Theyre the ones who make the current spending possible to continue in the future. This board is so f***ed at times....everyone becomes a fan of a team at some point. There isnt a Canadian NFL fan who wouldnt be considered Band wagon jumper at some point. I started watching Jay games in 83 at age 11, they were just starting to build momentum. As far as im concerned everyone who came afterwards coukd be considered a bandwagon or fairweather fan, so what. Good for them, the more the merrier. No one was born with inbred baseball knowledge that puts them higher on some kind fandum heirarchy.

Krylian MVP

Krylian

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Swinging hard got them here. Our Big 5 were 3 for 27 in game 2 and that has to change for us to win. The players know this, and if they execute today like they can, we are going to game 4.

 

There's swinging hard and there's swinging recklessly.

BigCecil Vancouver Canadians

BigCecil

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Swinging hard got them here. Our Big 5 were 3 for 27 in game 2 and that has to change for us to win. The players know this, and if they execute today like they can, we are going to game 4.

 

There's swinging hard and there's swinging recklessly.

 

After I wrote my post I was going to edit it to say this so fair comment. Hamels actually got stronger late in the game against us as we were chasing badly. So many wild swings on breaking balls. Part of that is good pitching but one of our hallmarks for big innings was taking BBs if they were there to keep the line moving.

 

We do need to be more selective. OTOH no point falling behind in the count if I pitch is there to hit.

Jonn MVP

Jonn

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Posted
Tonight I would have started Dickey. Not only because I think hes better but it keeps Martin in the lineup against the lefty. The fact that we may be eliminated with our star catcher on the bench because Estrada has has rediculous BABIP luck with Navarro behind the plate blows my mind.

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