Sign Marco Estrada to an extension

[GD]

Ladies, ladies, there's ETIQUETTE here. Put that s*** in the official wagers thread.

 

Also Estrada's at 0.5 WAR

[LTR]

I just don't get why people have to knock Estrada after a couple amazing starts. Do we have to be so pessimistic? Can't we just enjoy a great accomplishment for a change?

[GreekFatAss]

I just don't get why people have to knock Estrada after a couple amazing starts. Do we have to be so pessimistic? Can't we just enjoy a great accomplishment for a change?

 

We aren't knocking him, were knocking the idea of re-signing someone to a multi-year deal based on a couple of starts.

[baubau]

Ladies, ladies, there's ETIQUETTE here. Put that s*** in the official wagers thread.

 

Also Estrada's at 0.5 WAR

 

Fangraphs is delayed, he is at 1.1. He gained like 0.6 WAR after tonight lol.

[LTR]

We aren't knocking him, were knocking the idea of re-signing someone to a multi-year deal based on a couple of starts.

 

I don't mind a 1-2 year extension if it's cheap. This team just needs average major league pitching to win games and Estrada is definitely about average (and I'm not saying we should settle for less; he'd still be good depth). The only caveat, like Dickey, is he's probably not a good fit for RC, but he had 3-4 good to fine years pitching in about the same type of ball park in Milwaukee.

[Dick_Pole]

Next year's FA crop is a good one for pitchers which helps the Jays in two ways - first, the team can sign someone to shore up the depth spot, second, it'll help keep prices reasonable for back end guys like Estrada. There's no reason to jump the gun on extending him now unless we're talking about a really good deal. Chances are if he has a good year here and the team is competitive, the Jays will have the inside track in re-signing him in the off-season if they want to anyways.

 

On the flip side, aggressively "selling high" on Estrada is not a great idea either - as if you'd get a stud prospect back anyways. The team needs quality SP innings and he's giving them that right now. Might as well ride that wave as long as possible before he pitches like a #5 guy again.

[BigCecil]

I just don't get why people have to knock Estrada after a couple amazing starts. Do we have to be so pessimistic? Can't we just enjoy a great accomplishment for a change?

 

Im not knocking him at all. He was brilliant the last two starts. Huge for us. Extension at this point? No.

[TheHurl]

I'd say a good Mexican to Mexican comp here would be Chacin. Two 4 hitters, a 3 hitter and 2 hitter in his first 5 starts. Lock that bitch up to a 7 year deal and include the Marco Polo Cologne deal.

[TheHurl]

We can appreciate some wonderful performances without washing his balls with our collective tongues.

 

Smells like Enchiladas but tastes like s***.

[Brownie19]

I wouldn't extend him right now.

 

I suspect an extension would be something like 2 years, $12M - $14M (Carlos V got 2 yr - $10M from Cubs); but lets be honest, he hasn't been able to "stick" in the rotation during his career and at 31, it's doubtful that will change (he's just on a hot streak). At $6-7M/year - he has to be in your rotation to give you value because he'd have to be a shut down setup man to give value at $6M/year in the pen.

 

He's a useful, versatile pitcher - he's just not someone you want to sink a lot of $ into.

[Mikeleelop]

Next year's FA crop is a good one for pitchers which helps the Jays in two ways - first, the team can sign someone to shore up the depth spot, second, it'll help keep prices reasonable for back end guys like Estrada. There's no reason to jump the gun on extending him now unless we're talking about a really good deal. Chances are if he has a good year here and the team is competitive, the Jays will have the inside track in re-signing him in the off-season if they want to anyways.

 

On the flip side, aggressively "selling high" on Estrada is not a great idea either - as if you'd get a stud prospect back anyways. The team needs quality SP innings and he's giving them that right now. Might as well ride that wave as long as possible before he pitches like a #5 guy again.

 

I don't think you are getting a stud prospect - unless..... Hey Dave Stewart what's up????

[LTR]

Marco Estrada projects to be a below-average pitcher though, he isn't an average major league pitcher. There's no reason to lock that production up longer than you need to. If Estrada continues pitching well and enters free agency, the Blue Jays will be able to re-sign him to a two-year deal at a low AAV anyway. His value will not balloon over the next four months.

 

Wrong on all accounts. He's at least average, probably better actually.

 

League SIERA last year: 3.85

 

Estrada SIERA from 2011 to 2015: 3.65

 

People are seriously undervaluing this guy because he's been pitching in hitters parks.

 

Disagree on fly-ball pictures not performing worse in hitters park, it's just common sense. The more fly-balls the more likely some will go out in hitters parks.

[pickoff22]

I am also curious how he projects to be below-average?

 

For 5-7 million a year for a guy who has held up well, I would roll the dice. A #4 or 5 pitcher who can eat up innings and stay healthy is worth that in my books. A guy like Estrada has been great this year and would have been perfect any of the past few years as we cycled through pitcher after pitcher.

[RealAccountant]

Hurl you can't seriously be considering Chacin to Estrada. Estrada has had limited success in the majors for years now and Chacin was a one hit wonder mainlty due to his deceptive delivery

[KingKat]

Hurl you can't seriously be considering Chacin to Estrada. Estrada has had limited success in the majors for years now and Chacin was a one hit wonder mainlty due to his deceptive delivery

 

I think he was just saying that to illustrate a point about reading too much into small samples. Neither is as good as they've looked in their best samples though Estrada is clearly the better of the two. He's has had nearly twice the career Chacin has.

[NorthOf49]

Wrong on all accounts. He's at least average, probably better actually.

 

League SIERA last year: 3.85

 

Estrada SIERA from 2011 to 2015: 3.65

 

People are seriously undervaluing this guy because he's been pitching in hitters parks.

 

Disagree on fly-ball pictures not performing worse in hitters park, it's just common sense. The more fly-balls the more likely some will go out in hitters parks.

Estrada is 31 years old now and many of those innings from 2011-2015 came as a reliever. He is no longer the pitcher that he was in 2012-13. Projections have him down for an ERA above 4.00 and that includes some relief innings.

 

Fly ball pitchers give up additional home runs in home run parks, yes. But Estrada limits balls in play to some degree because fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP and he carries a good strikeout rate. For his career, Estrada has given up 26 balls in play per 9 innings. An average pitcher (35% FB%) would let 9.1 of those go for fly balls. Estrada at 45% would allow 11.7 fly balls. The Blue Jays have a ~110 home run factor and Estrada is perhaps slightly homer-prone.

 

So we'll say with the Blue Jays he's a 12.5% HR/FB guy and with the average team he'd be at 11%. With the Blue Jays, those 2.6 (11.7 - 9.1) extra fly balls will lead to .325 extra home runs per nine, and home runs are worth ~1.7 runs on average, giving us 0.55 extra runs. On the average team, the 2.6 fly balls would give us .286 more home runs, and .49 extra runs.

 

The penalty is about 0.06 runs per nine. A real difference, but not to the point where you'd explicity decide "we can't have this guy pitch in our ballpark."

 

Jeff Sullivan wrote a good article about batted balls and ballparks here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-significance-of-pitching-to-the-park/

[NorthOf49]

I am also curious how he projects to be below-average?

 

For 5-7 million a year for a guy who has held up well, I would roll the dice. A #4 or 5 pitcher who can eat up innings and stay healthy is worth that in my books. A guy like Estrada has been great this year and would have been perfect any of the past few years as we cycled through pitcher after pitcher.

You see him profiling as a #4/5 pitcher yet you don't see him as below-average? That's a contradiction. Major league average pitchers are very valuable and there's nothing wrong with Estrada if he's not one. Eating innings as a #4 is valuable.

[RealAccountant]

It's not a valid comparison. Estrada has pitched over 600lp innings at the mlb level as a useful pitcher.

 

And there is a difference between average and replacement level. Most averages are skewed because of the elite performers

[pickoff22]

You see him profiling as a #4/5 pitcher yet you don't see him as below-average? That's a contradiction. Major league average pitchers are very valuable and there's nothing wrong with Estrada if he's not one. Eating innings as a #4 is valuable.

 

I read "below-average" as the same as "below replacement", which I assume is not what you're trying to say here

[KingKat]

It's not a valid comparison. Estrada has pitched over 600lp innings at the mlb level as a useful pitcher.

 

The point wasn't the comparison. The point was that you can't judge the whole by the part. This little run by Estrada doesn't mean that much when evaluating his value. Chacin of all people had a similar run at one point.

[RealAccountant]

The point wasn't the comparison. The point was that you can't judge the whole by the part. This little run by Estrada doesn't mean that much when evaluating his value. Chacin of all people had a similar run at one point.

 

He distinctly said the best comparison is to Chacin

[Boxcar]

I read "below-average" as the same as "below replacement", which I assume is not what you're trying to say here

 

Replacement: 0 WAR

Average: 2 WAR

 

very different.

[KingKat]

He distinctly said the best comparison is to Chacin

 

No. He said it would be a good Mexican to Mexican comp. You could find better comparisons if you're not working along ethnic lines but you really don't need to find the best comparison to make the larger point.

[RealAccountant]

The point wasn't the comparison. The point was that you can't judge the whole by the part. This little run by Estrada doesn't mean that much when evaluating his value. Chacin of all people had a similar run at one point.

 

Chacin had one year. Estrada has had a season where he was worth 2.6 WAR

 

Better comparison might be Marcum

[tercet]

95% of this forum is really funny..

 

You guys didn't want anything of Estrada after the trade, didn't want anything of him up until the last 2 weeks.

 

I always thought he could be a decent 4/5, someone who would put up a low 4 era with decent perhips. Ill still take him over Sanchez this year as a starter.

 

Obviously he is pitching well now, but soon he will give up 5 hrs in 2 starts, or something semi-normal and all of you guys will hate him again.

[LTR]

Estrada is 31 years old now and many of those innings from 2011-2015 came as a reliever. He is no longer the pitcher that he was in 2012-13. Projections have him down for an ERA above 4.00 and that includes some relief innings.

 

My data was for him is as a starter only. Think about it… 3.65 SIERA since 2011, that’s good. He might not be quite as good as 2012-13 but I think he can still be effective. He’s mastered his change-up the last 2-3 years (K% increase with the CH). 31 years old is not really an age I’d start worrying about any significant performance drop-offs.

 

Fly ball pitchers give up additional home runs in home run parks, yes. But Estrada limits balls in play to some degree because fly balls have a slightly lower BABIP and he carries a good strikeout rate. For his career, Estrada has given up 26 balls in play per 9 innings. An average pitcher (35% FB%) would let 9.1 of those go for fly balls. Estrada at 45% would allow 11.7 fly balls. The Blue Jays have a ~110 home run factor and Estrada is perhaps slightly homer-prone.

 

So we'll say with the Blue Jays he's a 12.5% HR/FB guy and with the average team he'd be at 11%. With the Blue Jays, those 2.6 (11.7 - 9.1) extra fly balls will lead to .325 extra home runs per nine, and home runs are worth ~1.7 runs on average, giving us 0.55 extra runs. On the average team, the 2.6 fly balls would give us .286 more home runs, and .49 extra runs.

 

The penalty is about 0.06 runs per nine. A real difference, but not to the point where you'd explicity decide "we can't have this guy pitch in our ballpark."

 

The Blue Jays actually have a HR PF of 118… the data you’re using has been halved to account for only playing half the games in a season at home.

 

I don’t know why you are using a lower BABIP as an argument here. Sure the BABIP is lower makes sense for FB pitchers but that doesn’t change the point we’re talking about here.

 

All of this kind of proves my point anyway. And with that said I still think Estrada can be effective enough at RC.

 

Jeff Sullivan wrote a good article about batted balls and ballparks here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-significance-of-pitching-to-the-park/

 

That is a good article and does kind of prove my point as well (significant or not). “As expected, fly-ball pitchers have been hurt by dinger parks, and they’ve benefited from non-dinger parks. But there’s nothing extreme, here — it’s just a matter of percentages.”

[KIllerSloth]

95% of this forum is really funny..

 

You guys didn't want anything of Estrada after the trade, didn't want anything of him up until the last 2 weeks.

 

I always thought he could be a decent 4/5, someone who would put up a low 4 era with decent perhips. Ill still take him over Sanchez this year as a starter.

 

Obviously he is pitching well now, but soon he will give up 5 hrs in 2 starts, or something semi-normal and all of you guys will hate him again.

 

First forum? This is every forum on the internet.

[NorthOf49]

My data was for him is as a starter only. Think about it… 3.65 SIERA since 2011, that’s good. He might not be quite as good as 2012-13 but I think he can still be effective. He’s mastered his change-up the last 2-3 years (K% increase with the CH). 31 years old is not really an age I’d start worrying about any significant performance drop-offs.

 

 

 

The Blue Jays actually have a HR PF of 118… the data you’re using has been halved to account for only playing half the games in a season at home.

 

I don’t know why you are using a lower BABIP as an argument here. Sure the BABIP is lower makes sense for FB pitchers but that doesn’t change the point we’re talking about here.

 

All of this kind of proves my point anyway. And with that said I still think Estrada can be effective enough at RC.

 

 

 

That is a good article and does kind of prove my point as well (significant or not). “As expected, fly-ball pitchers have been hurt by dinger parks, and they’ve benefited from non-dinger parks. But there’s nothing extreme, here — it’s just a matter of percentages.”

Do the Blue Jays play every game at home? No. Estrada's relevant rate is ~109 since we expect him to pitch half his games at home and half on the road.

 

The lower BABIP isn't an "argument." It's an effect that suppresses the number of batted balls (and in turn, fly balls) he gives up per inning. Same with strikeouts. There are a few incremental effects that lead to the Rogers Centre not really being a big deal for fly ball pitchers, and it's best to keep them in mind instead of discarding each because they're small individually.

[LTR]

Do the Blue Jays play every game at home? No. Estrada's relevant rate is ~109 since we expect him to pitch half his games at home and half on the road.

 

You said specifically "the Blue Jays have a ~110 home run factor " and I corrected you.

 

The lower BABIP isn't an "argument." It's an effect that suppresses the number of batted balls (and in turn, fly balls) he gives up per inning. Same with strikeouts. There are a few incremental effects that lead to the Rogers Centre not really being a big deal for fly ball pitchers, and it's best to keep them in mind instead of discarding each because they're small individually.

 

It seems like you are attempting to elude even yourself. Low BABIP sure, less batted balls sure, strike-outs sure, none of this relates to park factors. He's still going to give up the same number of flyballs in any park and the number of those flyballs leaving the park will be dependent on park factors.

 

In any case I agree it's not significant enough to say he should not be pitching in hitters parks.

[LTR]

A player playing for the Blue Jays has a ~110 home run factor because they play half their games at home and half their games on the road.

 

Ftfy.

 

You said that Estrada and Dickey were poor fits for Rogers Centre. I said that wasn't the case and provided some evidence. BABIP and strikeouts relate to the impact a park has on a pitcher.

 

They are not best fits, even your data and the link you provided proved that, marginal or not.