General Jays Discussion 2015

[DuckDuckGose]

That's an optimist's view. You're not necessarily wrong but we can't really know what those contracts will be worth in the future. So far, the vast majority of big contracts have returned negative value in their final years. You might want to insulate yourself against that risk especially given the volatily of pitching. That being said since we're speculating about the future, there's no black and white answer. We can't know for sure how Price will age nor how the market will fluctuate.

 

If all the big money deals across the league fail then the whole league is going to fail and at that point it really doesn't matter if Price works out or not. Just another reason to make a splash this Winter; get it while the going is good. If the league economics take a turn for the worse hopefully you've added a pennant to the rafters and again it wont matter what they're paying Price.

[GD]

This is also why AA & company have pretty much stuck to their 5 yr rule, so they don't cripple the club or any future GM coming in to take over. They'd pay more money for less years because in general you just don't know what you're getting yourself into in the later years and when you're talking $20MM+ in those later years, it makes Romero's wasted money look like couch change.

 

Exactly. How many of these contracts are already hamstringing teams? Verlander, Pujols, Cano, Lee, CC, Mauer, Choo, Hanley, Wilson, just the vast majority of the following page:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

 

1. Players often break down in their early 30's. While this is not definite, it is a legitimate point of concern.

2. These contracts are very large and provide little to no surplus value, can hamstring a team's budget.

3. The risk of a massive loss of surplus value outweighs the risk of a slight surplus value advantage.

4. There are more efficient ways to add wins.

 

Conclusion: These contracts don't always end poorly, but generally are bad investments.

[DuckDuckGose]

Irrelevant though, you don't get Price for 5/150. I'd absolutely do that, but there's no way he signs it.

 

 

 

God I hate even trying to debate with you. It always goes the same way. You say something, I argue it, you call me a moron without actually understanding what I'm saying, build a strawman and then be massively condescending about it. Things that generally help a conversation include actually understanding what the other person is saying and avoiding the use of strawmans, but if that's too much to ask from you then I won't bother trying anymore.

 

I said your point was moronic, I never called you a moron. And you really shouldn't complains bout the quality of other people's posts. Most of your posts are under 5 words. Get off your high-horse and check your attitude it's terrible.

[KingKat]

If all the big money deals across the league fail then the whole league is going to fail and at that point it really doesn't matter if Price works out or not. Just another reason to make a splash this Winter; get it while the going is good. If the league economics take a turn for the worse hopefully you've added a pennant to the rafters and again it wont matter what they're paying Price.

 

FFS, I wasn't saying the whole league will go bankrupt. A negative value contract doesn't destroy you lol. It just takes away some of your flexibility. It's something to keep in mind when making decisions. Not something to go all chicken little about.

[baubau]

Exactly. How many of these contracts are already hamstringing teams? Verlander, Pujols, Cano, Lee, CC, Mauer, Choo, Hanley, Wilson, just the vast majority of the following page:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/rankings/

 

1. Players often break down in their early 30's. While this is not definite, it is a legitimate point of concern.

2. These contracts are very large and provide little to no surplus value, can hamstring a team's budget.

3. The risk of a massive loss of surplus value outweighs the risk of a slight surplus value advantage.

4. There are more efficient ways to add wins.

 

Conclusion: These contracts don't always end poorly, but generally are bad investments.

 

Holy f***, Crawford is getting paid $21M.. the f*** Dodgers..

[DuckDuckGose]

This is also why AA & company have pretty much stuck to their 5 yr rule, so they don't cripple the club or any future GM coming in to take over. They'd pay more money for less years because in general you just don't know what you're getting yourself into in the later years and when you're talking $20MM+ in those later years, it makes Romero's wasted money look like couch change.

 

They traded premium assets for Reyes on a 7yr deal and Tulo on a 10yr deal. At some point you'd hope they just sign their own big $ FA's instead of trading for other orgs guys a year or two int o their deals.

[pickoff22]

Holy f***, Crawford is getting paid $21M.. the f*** Dodgers..

 

That was the Red Sox' doing, though somehow convinced LAD to take on Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez and all of their salary

[GD]

I said your point was moronic, I never called you a moron. And you really shouldn't complains bout the quality of other people's posts. Most of your posts are under 5 words. Get off your high-horse and check your attitude it's terrible.

 

Oh congrats, massive difference. Still an ad hominem. I tried to have a civilized debate with you and after your posts you're telling me to get off my high horse? Get the f*** out, lol.

[Farm]

If we make the playoffs and have a solid run, will players want to come to Toronto in free agency more due to success/fans? I feel like that is a pretty big problem. Although I was pretty onboard with the idea behind going for it with the Marlines Reyes/Buehrle/Johnson trade, I hated the inefficiency of it because two of the three were free agents the previous year.

 

Why didn't we sign them ourselves? Assuming that our management is competent, the fact that we couldn't sign our own free agents suggests that we have a problem convincing players to come here (like Ervin Santana).

[DuckDuckGose]

FFS, I wasn't saying the whole league will go bankrupt. A negative value contract doesn't destroy you lol. It just takes away some of your flexibility. It's something to keep in mind when making decisions. Not something to go all chicken little about.

 

That's exactly how I feel. Consider that the Price deal doesn't work out and I think we are all still happy they went for it. If they don't do anything how many fans are going to stick around? They wont be drawing +1M viewers a night (like they have been since Tulo) without making a splash in FA.

[baubau]

That was the Red Sox' doing, though somehow convinced LAD to take on Beckett, Crawford and Gonzalez and all of their salary

 

Right, forgot about that. Gonzalez has been the only player of worth from that trade. f*** I wish I could piss money like the Dodgers can.

[DuckDuckGose]

Oh congrats, massive difference. Still an ad hominem. I tried to have a civilized debate with you and after your posts you're telling me to get off my high horse? Get the f*** out, lol.

 

There's a HUGE difference. I make moronic comments every day, I'm not a moron (depending who you ask). It's not an attack on you as a person. And let's be honest here, you don't try to have civilized debates you pick comments to argue and try to make sure your voice is the loudest in the room.

[GD]

Right, forgot about that. Gonzalez has been the only player of worth from that trade. f*** I wish I could piss money like the Dodgers can.

 

If Beckett hadn't gotten injured that contract wouldn't have been the worst thing in the world. Just the regular kind of s*****!

 

As well, Crawford has actually been pretty productive past two seasons, lol. Replacement level this year though. Looks REALLY ugly rn.

[GD]

There's a HUGE difference. I make moronic comments every day, I'm not a moron (depending who you ask). It's not an attack on you as a person. And let's be honest here, you don't try to have civilized debates you pick comments to argue and try to make sure your voice is the loudest in the room.

 

Tell me what part of my debating wasn't civilized. I made my points, repeated them when you didn't read them and never tried to troll/provoke you.

 

I swear. If I feel like trolling for a day, people yell at me to contribute more, and if I feel like having a civilized debate and contributing, people tell me I'm trolling. Oh god, the prophecies are true. I'm BTS.

[Followthelight]

Says who, mj?

 

Again i don't know what MJ means or is referring too? Care to explain? Says the law of averages? Common sense? There is no risk free proposition here..... either way carries risk. Not every pitcher becomes Verlander. If you are always afraid to take risks you may as well give up.

 

Look what taking a risk on Price as a rental has done for the team and excitement around the Jays? A big FA signing once in awhile is not going to cripple a franchise. People have been clamouring for the Jays to take a risk for years.

[Governator]

If we make the playoffs and have a solid run, will players want to come to Toronto in free agency more due to success/fans? I feel like that is a pretty big problem. Although I was pretty onboard with the idea behind going for it with the Marlines Reyes/Buehrle/Johnson trade, I hated the inefficiency of it because two of the three were free agents the previous year.

 

Why didn't we sign them ourselves? Assuming that our management is competent, the fact that we couldn't sign our own free agents suggests that we have a problem convincing players to come here (like Ervin Santana).

 

 

Jays haven't been able to attract free agents in some time, everything from the quality of the team, the quality of the ball park, the pain of customs, the cost of taxes all come in to play for free agents to sign here. Forcing them to come here via trade is sometimes the only option for this team to get quality players. That said, this off season could be very different for the Jays ability to attract free agents.

[DuckDuckGose]

Tell me what part of my debating wasn't civilized. I made my points, repeated them when you didn't read them and never tried to troll/provoke you.

 

I swear. If I feel like trolling for a day, people yell at me to contribute more, and if I feel like having a civilized debate and contributing, people tell me I'm trolling.

 

You started the "debate" with "nope". It was never going to be a debate after that. Your mind was made up going in to it and you've had a negative attitude in all of your responses. You give out snark and negativity and you get it back. That's life.

[ValiantJaysFan]

According to Kevin Barker, this time of year you can throw pitch and swing mechanics out the window. Becomes irrelevant, ya'll. All that matters is if yer a pitcher ya throw strikes, and if yer a batter ya hit them strikes.

 

Living proof that anyone can get on the radio. ANYONE.

[GD]

You started the "debate" with "nope". It was never going to be a debate after that. Your mind was made up going in to it and you've had a negative attitude in all of your responses. You give out snark and negativity and you get it back. That's life.

 

ok. Glad disagreeing with you is snark and negativity. Bye now.

 

Because committing large sums of money to pitchers over long terms is not conducive to winning.

 

Sure. And constraining your spending abilities on one pitcher will impact your ability to add good pitchers.

 

Price, on a $28m AAV for 7 years, totaling $196m, would have to contribute 26 WAR over 7 years, coming down to 3.7 WAR per season. I cannot understate how unlikely that is to happen.

 

No. Literally every single team in baseball would want David Price when not considering money. Every single one.

 

There is no need to sign a contract that you know loses you money. There are better ways to acquire talent.

[GD]

Russell Martin: pop up extraordinaire

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/08/12/has-russell-martin-changed-his-approach/

[Followthelight]

Dirk Hayhurst "Only a matter of time before the Jays pass the Yankees". Nice Jinx arsehole.

[metafour]

Again i don;t know what MJ means or is referring too? Care to explain? Says the law of averages? Common sense? There is no risk free proposition here..... either way carries risk. Not every pitcher becomes Verlander. If you are always afraid to take risks you may as well give up.

 

Yup. Verlander is really an extreme example as pitchers of his caliber rarely just fall apart at age 30 like he did. Price has lots of characteristics which suggest that he should age well: low reliance on breaking balls, universally praised mechanics, and a good thin body that isn't likely to balloon and become a problem. I think that you can realistically expect him to be a strong to elite performer until age ~34/35, if that is the case then you're looking at 2 years that may be write-offs, and its not really out of line to suggest that he may still be useful during those years either. Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine were both fastball/changeup pitchers that were pitching at a high level all the way up to their mid to late 30's, for example.

[HERPDERP]

Russell Martin: pop up extraordinaire

 

http://www.breakingblue.ca/2015/08/12/has-russell-martin-changed-his-approach/

 

While we're on topic, the guy hasn't hit an XBH since since July 30. He's been in a tailspin ever since the Dickster broke Martin's thumb. There is a reason why Martin wants Thole to be up here ASAP. He needs rest badly.

[DuckDuckGose]

ok. Glad disagreeing with you is snark and negativity. Bye now.

 

that"s pure snark!!! And every post was negative.

[GD]

While we're on topic, the guy hasn't hit an XBH since since July 30. He's been in a tailspin ever since the Dickster broke Martin's thumb. There is a reason why Martin wants Thole to be up here ASAP. He needs rest badly.

 

He's probably banged up in general, hence the Gibby rest days.

[Followthelight]

While we're on topic, the guy hasn't hit an XBH since since July 30. He's been in a tailspin ever since the Dickster broke Martin's thumb. There is a reason why Martin wants Thole to be up here ASAP. He needs rest badly.

 

Martin looks like he is hurting.

[HERPDERP]

Martin looks like he is hurting.

 

Yup, hamstring, the hands/thumb. Makes you wonder why he wants to go all crazy on defensive plays. Tone it down brah, you're not 24 anymore!

[GD]

that"s pure snark!!! And every post was negative.

 

"You give out snark and negativity and you get it back." Disagreeing with you is not negativity, man, it's having a separate view point. If you legitimately think disagreeing with you is being negative then idk what to tell you. I'll try and end this conversation for probably the third or fourth time now: Bye now.

[DuckDuckGose]

"You give out snark and negativity and you get it back." Disagreeing with you is not negativity, man, it's having a separate view point. If you legitimately think disagreeing with you is being negative then idk what to tell you. I'll try and end this conversation for probably the third or fourth time now: Bye now.

 

lolz. k bye.

[GD]

Yup, hamstring, the hands/thumb. Makes you wonder why he wants to go all crazy on defensive plays. Tone it down brah, you're not 24 anymore!

 

As Ang would say, hossssssskey players.