General Jays Discussion 2015

[Spanky99]

I doubt it. If you are an engineer then you aren't a very ethical one, nor well informed. Also, an engineer wouldn't purposely use incorrect grammar such as "Yur dum".

 

There are methods such as factorial statistical analysis that can analyze such data and take into account the other 24 members of the team. In the simplest case, it is just a matter of doing a comparison with all else equal. If you are an engineer then why don't you understand something so basic as this?

 

You're just trolling now. No doubt.

[Atothe]

nextwinter is hilarious

[CHRIS]

In 30 years time, the youngsters here who believe in the way that WAR is currently calculated will probably be accused of being from the dark ages.

 

Nice to be 41 and lumped in with the youngsters.

[GD]

Nice to be 41 and lumped in with the youngsters.

 

41 is the new 14, or so I've heard.

[CHRIS]

41 is the new 14, or so I've heard.

 

Awesome! That's the bomb!

 

 

 

 

I'll show myself out, youngsters.

[pickoff22]

I did. The WAR for Devon Travis which shows he is now plus 2.4 but the team is actually minus 10 when he plays (look it up if you don't believe it). This was dismissed as luck or random chance, or that some things can't be explained. This isn't how statistics work, there is always an explanation, which could be experimental error or that the equation is not valid. WAR is inconsistent and in this case Zaun is right. Proclaiming that I am kooky is also not a valid argument for WAR

 

I have taken 6 years of engineering at two well known Canadian universities. An equation that gives such erroneous results would not be used by any engineer.

 

There are better statistical methods for determining WAR.

 

 

I know people give you a hard time so I say this without any offense intended, but I know you're smarter than this.

 

First, it's as basic as watching the games - if you have then it's obvious how well Devon has played. He's been fantastic.

 

In terms of explaining why a player with a +WAR could be on a team with a losing record when he plays, this is also fairly obvious. He could hit 5HRs in a game, but the team will still lose if no one else gets on base and the Jays pitchers give up >5. Or maybe he makes a half dozen spectacular defensive plays that each save a run, but if the other team hits 5 HRs and the Jays score <5 runs, then it's a loss. So yes, luck is most definitely a factor. He's only 1 guy on a team of 25.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

I seriously can't tell if these new posters are trolls or not.

 

And seriously none of us care if you do! This is not Twitter and I don't care if you do anymore then what sandwich you add at lunch ! Shut up and keep your thoughts to yourself if you can't add too discussions.

[Spanky99]

And seriously none of us care if you do! This is not Twitter and I don't care if you do anymore then what sandwich you add at lunch ! Shut up and keep your thoughts to yourself if you can't add too discussions.

 

lol

[Boxcar]

I did. The WAR for Devon Travis which shows he is now plus 2.4 but the team is actually minus 10 when he plays (look it up if you don't believe it). This was dismissed as luck or random chance, or that some things can't be explained. This isn't how statistics work, there is always an explanation, which could be experimental error or that the equation is not valid. WAR is inconsistent and in this case Zaun is right. Proclaiming that I am kooky is also not a valid argument for WAR

 

I have taken 6 years of engineering at two well known Canadian universities. An equation that gives such erroneous results would not be used by any engineer.

 

There are better statistical methods for determining WAR.

 

You being an idiot and not understanding how it works is not proof that it is flawed.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

Because a few who think they run the board can't see the majority of new threads...

 

Why is that? Is it that ignore list? I think it causes more conflict in here then it does good! It's just censorship in disguise!

 

I choose to read and who or what I respond too!

 

No man is more important in here then his fellow fan!

 

But some certainly feel they are!

 

Right or wrong all humans are flawed. ! Other wise things we make and buy would not come with warranty!

[Daniel Labude]

I did. The WAR for Devon Travis which shows he is now plus 2.4 but the team is actually minus 10 when he plays (look it up if you don't believe it). This was dismissed as luck or random chance, or that some things can't be explained. This isn't how statistics work, there is always an explanation, which could be experimental error or that the equation is not valid. WAR is inconsistent and in this case Zaun is right. Proclaiming that I am kooky is also not a valid argument for WAR

 

I have taken 6 years of engineering at two well known Canadian universities. An equation that gives such erroneous results would not be used by any engineer.

 

There are better statistical methods for determining WAR.

 

WAR is solely an individual stat and can basically only be used to compare players. Some people don't get this fact. An individual player's WAR has little impact on the actual outcome of a team game.

[BigBounceyBlueBalls]

But if war is graded by the human eye's is it not also a judgement as perceived by who makes a the call? Score keepers umps etc! Who are these people who decide War ? How do we know they are qualified to assign these grades even?

Are they provided by the league or home teams? Do some players of certain status get more favourable grades just by who they are! Much like a pitcher gets from umps! f***ing umps! Lol

[Captain Adama]

WAR is solely an individual stat and can basically only be used to compare players. Some people don't get this fact. An individual player's WAR has little impact on the actual outcome of a team game.

 

Wow, LTBF be schooling people on stats. Never thought I'd see the day!

[GD]

Wow, LTBF be schooling people on stats. Never thought I'd see the day!

 

holy f*** that was the most LTBF post of all time

 

If anyone open minded and not very likely racist would like to debate the merits of that post, post it in the sabermetric thread!

[o2cui2i]

I did. The WAR for Devon Travis which shows he is now plus 2.4 but the team is actually minus 10 when he plays (look it up if you don't believe it). This was dismissed as luck or random chance, or that some things can't be explained. This isn't how statistics work, there is always an explanation, which could be experimental error or that the equation is not valid. WAR is inconsistent and in this case Zaun is right. Proclaiming that I am kooky is also not a valid argument for WAR

 

I have taken 6 years of engineering at two well known Canadian universities. An equation that gives such erroneous results would not be used by any engineer.

 

There are better statistical methods for determining WAR.

 

sure, because it's his fault that the bullpen blew games, that the starters where only going three innings, that other players were making throwing and base running errors... WAR is not equal with wins.

[Deadpool]

But if war is graded by the human eye's is it not also a judgement as perceived by who makes a the call? Score keepers umps etc! Who are these people who decide War ? How do we know they are qualified to assign these grades even?

Are they provided by the league or home teams? Do some players of certain status get more favourable grades just by who they are! Much like a pitcher gets from umps! f***ing umps! Lol

 

[Farm]

I did. The WAR for Devon Travis which shows he is now plus 2.4 but the team is actually minus 10 when he plays (look it up if you don't believe it). This was dismissed as luck or random chance, or that some things can't be explained. This isn't how statistics work, there is always an explanation, which could be experimental error or that the equation is not valid. WAR is inconsistent and in this case Zaun is right. Proclaiming that I am kooky is also not a valid argument for WAR

 

I have taken 6 years of engineering at two well known Canadian universities. An equation that gives such erroneous results would not be used by any engineer.

 

There are better statistical methods for determining WAR.

 

I made an account just to let you know how dumb this is.

[Spanky99]

But if war is graded by the human eye's is it not also a judgement as perceived by who makes a the call? Score keepers umps etc! Who are these people who decide War ? How do we know they are qualified to assign these grades even?

Are they provided by the league or home teams? Do some players of certain status get more favourable grades just by who they are! Much like a pitcher gets from umps! f***ing umps! Lol

 

lol

[Atothe]

Jays averaged 1.29 million viewers during the Yankees series and almost broke the network record of 1.44 mill for 2013 opening day. They got 1.43 mill for Price's start at Yankee stadium.

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/142365270

[nextyear]

I know people give you a hard time so I say this without any offense intended, but I know you're smarter than this.

 

First, it's as basic as watching the games - if you have then it's obvious how well Devon has played. He's been fantastic.

 

In terms of explaining why a player with a +WAR could be on a team with a losing record when he plays, this is also fairly obvious. He could hit 5HRs in a game, but the team will still lose if no one else gets on base and the Jays pitchers give up >5. Or maybe he makes a half dozen spectacular defensive plays that each save a run, but if the other team hits 5 HRs and the Jays score <5 runs, then it's a loss. So yes, luck is most definitely a factor. He's only 1 guy on a team of 25.

 

 

I actually do understand what WAR is. I wouldn't have such a problem with WAR if was called something like Combined Offensive Defensive metric. However, if you go to fangraphs the WAR metric is described as follows: (source: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ )

You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.

 

A team made up of all Replacement level player (R in the WAR stat) is assumed to win 48 games per year (thereabouts, I don't have time now to look it up). So to get to a 0.500 team all players combined need WAR's to add up to an additional 33 games (to get to 81 games) over 162 games (there is some uncertainty, say +/- 5 games).

 

Based on what I have stated above (from fangraphs) if Devon Travis, who is a plus WAR player, is replaced with Replacement level players (WAR of 0) and other players on the team remain the same then the team should win fewer games. However, in reality this wasn't the case; we know there is some uncertainty so even winning the same number or close (percentage wise) would be acceptable but the difference was well over 10 in the wrong direction.

 

Please, could people stop claiming that I don't understand WAR. I understand it since it is a simple concept. However, WAR is not reliable in determining what it is intended to determine (Wins Above Replacement).

 

I believe Devon Travis is a good player, but assigning a 2.4 WAR to him over his short career is meaningless as indicated by his real WAR when he was actually injured and replaced by a Replacement level player (determined directly) with almost all other players remaining the same (the team WAR didn't change significantly until players like Tulowitzki were acquired).

 

In short, Devon Travis is a good player, but the WAR metric is just an interesting stat which cannot reliably calculate Wins Above Replacement as it is intended to do.

Edited August 11, 2015 by nextyear

[Jonzo]

Jays averaged 1.29 million viewers during the Yankees series and almost broke the network record of 1.44 mill for 2013 opening day. They got 1.43 mill for Price's start at Yankee stadium.

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/142365270

 

This Friday should break it. Price vs Yankees, prime time, Friday night.. I'll be there section 228 bitches!

[aselvana]

Jays averaged 1.29 million viewers during the Yankees series and almost broke the network record of 1.44 mill for 2013 opening day. They got 1.43 mill for Price's start at Yankee stadium.

 

http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/142365270

 

probably be broken on friday

[Boxcar]

I actually do understand what WAR is. I wouldn't have such a problem with WAR if was called something like Combined Offensive Defensive metric. However, if you go to fangraphs the WAR metric is described as follows: (source: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ )

You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.

 

A team made up of all Replacement level player (R in the WAR stat) is assumed to win 48 games per year (thereabouts, I don't have time now to look it up). So to get to a 0.500 team all players combined need WAR's to add up to an additional 33 games (to get to 81 games) over 162 games (there is some uncertainty, say +/- 5 games).

 

Based on what I have stated above (from fangraphs) if Devon Travis, who is a plus WAR player, is replaced with Replacement level players (WAR of 0) and other players on the team remain the same then the team should win fewer games. However, in reality we know there is some uncertainty so even winning the same number or close (percentage wise) would be acceptable but this isn't the case.

 

Please, could people stop claiming that I don't understand WAR. I understand it since it is a simple concept. However, WAR is not reliable in determining what it is intended to determine (Wins Above Replacement).

 

I believe Devon Travis is a good player, but assigning a 2.4 WAR to him over his short career is meaningless as indicated by his real WAR when he was actually injured and replaced by a Replacement level player (determined directly) with almost all other players remaining the same (the team WAR didn't change significantly until players like Tulowitzki were acquired).

 

You keep claiming to understand it but the majority of your posts say otherwise.

[Angrioter]

Harrison Perry

Danny Valencia was DFA'd on August 1. Since then, Aaron Loup (has options) has thrown one pitch in a cluttered 8-man bullpen. #BlueJays

[Spanky99]

You keep claiming to understand it but the majority of your posts say otherwise.

 

Trolling.

[Spanky99]

Harrison Perry

Danny Valencia was DFA'd on August 1. Since then, Aaron Loup (has options) has thrown one pitch in a cluttered 8-man bullpen. #BlueJays

 

Thanks Ang, we were un-aware.

[HERPDERP]

bad roster management all around

 

this is why you don't let Gibby make the decisions, AA.

[Angrioter]

Goddammid I love it!!

.309/.347/.545, +45 wRC+, 1.2 fWAR

[nextyear]

You keep claiming to understand it but the majority of your posts say otherwise.

 

Then explain what I have stated that is incorrect, otherwise you come off an some arrogant prick who doesn't have a clue. I don't accept random chance; that is the same as saying you don't know. In statistics random chance is often used but in reality there is always an explanation whether it is known or not. One explanation is that the equation is not valid; in science this would be the most acceptable explanation.

[Spanky99]

I actually do understand what WAR is. I wouldn't have such a problem with WAR if was called something like Combined Offensive Defensive metric. However, if you go to fangraphs the WAR metric is described as follows: (source: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ )

You should always use more than one metric at a time when evaluating players, but WAR is all-inclusive and provides a useful reference point for comparing players. WAR offers an estimate to answer the question, “If this player got injured and their team had to replace them with a freely available minor leaguer or a AAAA player from their bench, how much value would the team be losing?” This value is expressed in a wins format, so we could say that Player X is worth +6.3 wins to their team while Player Y is only worth +3.5 wins, which means it is highly likely that Player X has been more valuable than Player Y.

 

A team made up of all Replacement level player (R in the WAR stat) is assumed to win 48 games per year (thereabouts, I don't have time now to look it up). So to get to a 0.500 team all players combined need WAR's to add up to an additional 33 games (to get to 81 games) over 162 games (there is some uncertainty, say +/- 5 games).

 

"Based on what I have stated above (from fangraphs) if Devon Travis, who is a plus WAR player, is replaced with Replacement level players (WAR of 0) and other players on the team remain the same then the team should win fewer games. However, in reality this wasn't the case; we know there is some uncertainty so even winning the same number or close (percentage wise) would be acceptable but the difference was well over 10 in the wrong direction.

 

Please, could people stop claiming that I don't understand WAR. I understand it since it is a simple concept. However, WAR is not reliable in determining what it is intended to determine (Wins Above Replacement).

 

I believe Devon Travis is a good player, but assigning a 2.4 WAR to him over his short career is meaningless as indicated by his real WAR when he was actually injured and replaced by a Replacement level player (determined directly) with almost all other players remaining the same (the team WAR didn't change significantly until players like Tulowitzki were acquired).

 

In short, Devon Travis is a good player, but the WAR metric is just an interesting stat which cannot reliably calculate Wins Above Replacement as it is intended to do.

 

Yes you have no clue of how WAR, works, I still believe you are trolling, pretty good in fact, because someone can't be this ignorant.