General Jays Discussion 2015

[Stangstag]

BTS is probably the worst troll this forum has got, good thing he got shamed out for being a Rays fan.

 

Don't start this

[GD]

but it's so much fun

[o2cui2i]

BTS is probably the worst troll this forum has got, good thing he got shamed out for being a Rays fan.

 

we are NOT the oriels board. as long as people can talk baseball without being tools towards the jays or the jays fans they are welcome.

 

BTS and Hurl do nothing wrong in what they post. we should be honored that 2 of the 400 Tampa fans want to talk baseball with us.

[BTS]

There's no way the Rays have 400 fans.

[GD]

There's no way the Rays have 400 fans.

 

Do you guys all wear your Rays hoodies once a week and head down to Hurl's basement to watch the game and throw darts with pictures of Friedman attached at a picture of AA?

[GD]

Yeah can we get rid of this BTS fellow already? I don't know how he's escaped mod detection for so long.

 

Some people really just don't have lives. Rays fan on a Jays board, it's pretty sad. I feel for the guy, y'know?

[o2cui2i]

There's no way the Rays have 400 fans.

 

I was feeling charitable. lol

[Brownie19]

Honestly I'd trade any position player for a good starter. I think Starters are way more important to a teams success. Travis is great, but if a deal came up for a young controllable starters with plus stuff, I would do it. Same with even Donaldson. I would trade Donaldson for a Chris Archer for example. Not that Archer is available or the Rays need a 3B. The point is Starting Pitching >>>>>> Everything else.

 

Would I trade Travis or Donaldson for a Kluber or Sale, in a heartbeat.

 

I wouldn't do it for an overpriced veteran though, or a rental. Its time to rebuild this club from the pitching out.

 

What's funny about this is you seemingly put Travis and Donaldson at the same level. These guys are MILES apart.

[Stangstag]

Some people really just don't have lives. Rays fan on a Jays board, it's pretty sad. I feel for the guy, y'know?

 

Where else are rays fans supposed to talk baseball? There aren't any other options for the poor guys

[LTR]

Guys, this is going off on a tangent, can we please have focus here?

 

Burn this mofo down or commence bannings!

[BTS]

Do you guys all wear your Rays hoodies once a week and head down to Hurl's basement to watch the game and throw darts with pictures of Friedman attached at a picture of AA?

 

We take turns hosting. Nox's weeks are the best because his mom serves pizza pockets and mountain dew.

[GD]

Pizza pockets AND mountain dew?

 

God you guys have it good

[Governator]

Hutchison has options correct? Couldn't the Jays option Drew and bring up either a bat or a relief arm for the next 10 days? He's not schedule to start this series, then a 4 day break and just 3 days later he could be called up and cycled in to the 4th or 5th slot. I guess it comes down what order of pitching you want to set up after the All Star break. Edited July 10, 2015 by Governator

[LTR]

I thought this board believe in advanced stats over ERA? Sure, Drew's been been inconsistent but his FIP/xFIP says he's been significantly better than any of our other starters. This is the part where you tell me Buehrle is a guy that always performs better than his peripherals and Drew has been a guy that has underperformed but there's got to me some regression here.

 

BABIP

Drew Hutchison 0.358

Mark Buehrle 0.278

Marco Estrada 0.255

R.A. Dickey 0.268

Aaron Sanchez 0.26

[Daniel Labude]

I thought this board believe in advanced stats over ERA? Sure, Drew's been been inconsistent but his FIP/xFIP says he's been significantly better than any of our other starters. This is the part where you tell me Buehrle is a guy that always performs better than his peripherals and Drew has been a guy that has underperformed but there's got to me some regression here.

 

BABIP

Drew Hutchison 0.358

Mark Buehrle 0.278

Marco Estrada 0.255

R.A. Dickey 0.268

Aaron Sanchez 0.26

 

I see what you are saying. I just don't like how this stat is used. You have to look deeper into why Hutch has a higher BABIP. Of the pitchers you listed, I would expect Hutch to have the highest 9 times out of 10. So how much better can his BABIP get is the question. The way he has pitched this year I would not expect it to change a whole lot.

[BTS]

I see what you are saying. I just don't like how this stat is used. You have to look deeper into why Hutch has a higher BABIP. Of the pitchers you listed, I would expect Hutch to have the highest 9 times out of 10. So how much better can his BABIP get is the question. The way he has pitched this year I would not expect it to change a whole lot.

 

Why?

[LTR]

I see what you are saying. I just don't like how this stat is used. You have to look deeper into why Hutch has a higher BABIP. Of the pitchers you listed, I would expect Hutch to have the highest 9 times out of 10. So how much better can his BABIP get is the question. The way he has pitched this year I would not expect it to change a whole lot.

 

Look at his past BABIP to get a better idea:

 

2013 - .291

2014 - .293

2015 - .358

 

By all accounts Drew is the same guy he's always been, just unlucky.

 

Edit: 420 post, sweet!

[Daniel Labude]

Why?

 

How he pitches...the quality of his pitches....the location he has to pitch to be effective...and the amount of pitches he has to actually use

 

Sanchez has a great fastball with velocity and movement which results in a lower BABIP

 

Buehrle has great command and can pitch with a variety of pitches. Velocities, and stays at the bottom of the zone

 

Dickey has the knuckle ball which overall is hard to hit

 

Estrada has an amazing changeup that he can throw whenever to get weak contact and has to be accounted for

 

Hutch is a one pitch pitcher until he gets the slider back. His fastball is flat and he pitches up in the zone at 91-94 mph without any workable changeup to keep hitters off balance.

 

Again...just my opinion.

[Daniel Labude]

Look at his past BABIP to get a better idea:

 

2013 - .291

2014 - .293

2015 - .358

 

By all accounts Drew is the same guy he's always been, just unlucky.

 

Edit: 420 post, sweet!

 

Agreed, he should be better than what he has been but those BABIP are still high. I just don't see Hutch really succeeding until he gets the slider back ( which made last season's numbers better) and a useful changeup

[BTS]

Agreed, he should be better than what he has been but those BABIP are still high. I just don't see Hutch really succeeding until he gets the slider back ( which made last season's numbers better) and a useful changeup

 

His 2013 and 2014 BABIPs are below-average.

[Jimcanuck]

Catfish Hunter > 3000 IP. BABIP = .243

Jim Palmer ~ 4000 IP. BABIP = .249

 

Should do a statistical distribution and provide the probability a pitcher will have a career .250, .260, .270, .280, etc BABIP. Throwing a couple of names up doesn't mean anything.

[Daniel Labude]

His 2013 and 2014 BABIPs are below-average.

 

If you assume (probably shouldnt) that'd Hutch's performance is directly related to the bad luck associated with the high BABIP. He goes from a not so good #5 starter to at best a 3/4 starter.

[BTS]

Catfish Hunter > 3000 IP. BABIP = .243

Jim Palmer ~ 4000 IP. BABIP = .249

 

Should do a statistical distribution and provide the probability a pitcher will have a career .250, .260, .270, .280, etc BABIP. Throwing a couple of names up doesn't mean anything.

 

Probability of anything under 0.270 now would be 0 regardless of skill set. BABIPs back when Catfish Hunter pitched hovered in the 0.275 range. Now we're 0.300. Supressing BABIP can be a skill though.: knuckleballers, guys with elite changeups, extreme flyball pitchers.

[Jimcanuck]

Probability of anything under 0.270 now would be 0 regardless of skill set. BABIPs back when Catfish Hunter pitched hovered in the 0.275 range. Now we're 0.300. Supressing BABIP can be a skill though.: knuckleballers, guys with elite changeups, extreme flyball pitchers.

 

That's interesting. Juiced ball, or juiced players, era. Recent pitcher with lowest BABIP is Mariano Rivera at 0.263

[o2cui2i]

does one need to look at SwStr% and BABPIP to get a better idea of a pitchers performance? take Randy Johnson as an example, he had a .291 BABPIP with a 12.8 SwStr%.... so he got a lot of swing and miss Ks but still got hits against him.

 

since we all know that he had amazing movement on his pitches, would it be assumed that weak contact is harder to defend thus giving a higher BABPIP???

 

 

I'd almost think that it would be worse in the modern game because of the over shifts. hard contact usually goes where the defense is standing, but weak contact is less predictable?

 

now I'm dizzy.... I'm way too old for this...

 

http://img143.imageshack.us/img143/2734/93512305.jpg

[BTS]

That's interesting. Juiced ball, or juiced players, era. Recent pitcher with lowest BABIP is Mariano Rivera at 0.263

 

Probably a lot of things. Better bats, higher velocity on pitches, stronger hitters. And yeah, Mo was crazy. I don't think anyone would say the weak contact induced by the cutter was lucky.

[GD]

does one need to look at SwStr% and BABPIP to get a better idea of a pitchers performance? take Randy Johnson as an example, he had a .291 BABPIP with a 12.8 SwStr%.... so he got a lot of swing and miss Ks but still got hits against him.

 

since we all know that he had amazing movement on his pitches, would it be assumed that weak contact is harder to defend thus giving a higher BABPIP???

 

 

I'd almost think that it would be worse in the modern game because of the over shifts. hard contact usually goes where the defense is standing, but weak contact is less predictable?

 

.291 is not a high BABIP

[o2cui2i]

Randy Johnson was good because he was very good at preventing players from putting the ball in play in the first place. That doesn't factor into the equation, when guys did put the ball in play, they got hits at an average rate.

 

I would have thought his BABPIP would have even been lower since most guys couldn't get wood on the ball. Ridiculous stuff and great control and was still average BABPIP?

 

so, can bad contact make for a higher BABPIP? sorry... my saber vocabulary is finite. I'm just thinking that a pitcher could have good movement and control, good enough to induce weak contact but not enough to get SwStr% creating weak balls in play that fall outside the prepared defense.

 

Hutch has had a lot of duck snorts and weak dribblers go for hits the last while. He hasn't been horrible, but he's not missing enough bats.

[Nabru]

How would this message board feel if Ed Rogers went out and signed Dave Dombrowski in the off-season to be the head of baseball ops?

[o2cui2i]

No, the vast majority of pitchers cannot control their BABIP. A small portion can, as BTS laid out, but it's best to assume that a pitcher cannot until we have several full seasons of data on them. Generally, line drives go for hits much more often. Batted balls go for hits mainly based on where they're hit. If it's hit where nobody is, the ball drops or squirts through. The quality of contact (hard or soft) doesn't really play into BABIP.

 

Hutch is missing enough bats; he has a decent (for a starter) 9.6% SwStr% and is striking out over 8 batters per nine, which is great. There really is nothing particularly worrisome about the peripherals that he has control over. Expectations probably were too high for him to start the year as he really isn't more than a mid-rotation starter. However, he's making the minimum so that is still very valuable.

 

ok, thanks