Grantland AL East preview

[theblujay]

Not sure if this has been posted but its a pretty good preview: https://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-2015-al-east-preview-red-sox-blue-jays-orioles-rays-yankees/

 

Biggest Projected Hitter/Pitcher Improvement: None; Marco Estrada, 1.7 WAR/200 IP

 

Biggest Projected Hitter/Pitcher Decline: Russell Martin, minus-2.5 WAR/600 PA; Brett Cecil, minus-1.4 WAR/200 IP

 

Hitter With Most Projected Days Missed: Maicer Izturis, 52 days3

 

Highest Projected Starting Pitcher DL Probability: R.A. Dickey, 45 percent4

 

Best Offseason Move: It wasn’t nearly as high-profile as the Josh Donaldson trade, nor as significant of an immediate upgrade, but the straight-up swap with Seattle of J.A. Happ for Michael Saunders was easy to like for Toronto. Saunders, if healthy, is at least an average outfielder; Happ, if healthy, is a below-average starter. Saunders is four years younger, costs less than half as much, and comes with twice as many years of team control. He also has injury issues, which makes this something less than a steal. Still, an inexpensive, potentially 2-3-win left-handed addition to Toronto’s righty-heavy lineup was a strong pull in exchange for an impending free agent who’s barely hovered above replacement level since his fluky rookie season. Honorable mention goes to the Anthony Gose–for–Devon Travis trade, which might eventually drive a stake through the heart of the Ryan Goins/Munenori Kawasaki experiment at second base.

 

Worst Offseason Move: Not encasing rising star starter Marcus Stroman in carbonite until Opening Day; hibernation sickness is quicker to come back from than a torn ACL. Otherwise, it’s tough to quibble with any moves Toronto made. The Jays paid for the 2014 Pirates model of Russell Martin, which won’t be what they get, but given that they’re in their competitive sweet spot, it was an understandable splurge.

 

Greatest Team Strength: Lefty-mashing. The Blue Jays might be the AL’s best-hitting team besides Boston, and they’re particularly well configured to destroy southpaws. Saunders is the club’s only everyday left-handed hitter; some of the team’s switch-hitters (like Dioner Navarro) prefer facing lefties, and dedicated lefty-killer Danny Valencia lurks on the bench, longing to pinch hit for Goins or Josh Thole in high-leverage spots. The righty-heavy Brewers made the fewest left-on-left plate appearances last season (105), but Toronto sabotaged Ron Roenicke’s 2015 total by sending him Adam Lind. With Milwaukee out of the way, the Jays will compete with the Padres for southpaw-avoidance-supremacy.

 

Greatest Team Weakness: Pitching. Only the Rockies and the Yu Darvish–deprived Rangers have a lower total projected pitching WAR than the Jays. Losing Stroman, who virtually tied Mark Buehrle for the staff WAR lead last season (in far fewer innings) and was projected to have the highest WAR among Toronto pitchers in 2015, is a big blow for the rotation. But the bullpen, projected for a 29th-place 0.4 WAR, is the bigger unknown. Estrada pitched well in 40-plus innings out of the pen for the Brewers last season, but beyond Cecil, this group is short on sure things. On the plus side, Buehrle’s fellow Jays follow his lead in taking the big leagues’ least time between pitches, so at least they won’t draw out the suffering.

 

Player We Can’t Wait to Watch: Aaron Sanchez. The right-hander’s 97.6 mph average velocity ranked fourth among 225 pitchers who threw at least 200 sinkers last season, and his 66 percent ground ball rate ranked fourth among 400-plus pitchers who threw at least 30 innings. However, his success in relief tells us little about how he’ll fare in the rotation he now shares with the last-place finisher in sinker velocity, Buehrle. Sanchez’s pitch usage doesn’t scream “starter”:

 

aaron-sanchez-pitch-chart

 

The 22-year-old threw one changeup after his debut outing last season. In seven of his last nine outings, he didn’t throw any off-speed pitches, and on September 6 against Boston, he threw 27 pitches, all of them four-seamers. We know he has a hard sinker; now we’re waiting to learn whether he has the ability to miss bats, make it through a lineup multiple times, and throw strikes as a starter, which he struggled to do in the minors.

 

Noteworthy Miscellaneous Stat: By one measure, the Blue Jays — who range from fearsome sluggers like Jose Bautista to easy outs like Goins, Kevin Pillar, and (for now) Dalton Pompey — have the most unbalanced offense in baseball. I determined that by taking the 10 hitters projected to make the most plate appearances on each team and calculating the standard deviation of their projected Weighted On-Base Averages, which told me how closely clustered each club’s hitters were around their collective mean. Because higher-offense teams tend to have higher standard deviations, I then divided each team’s standard deviation by the average wOBA of its 10 most frequent hitters, producing a measure of dispersion called the coefficient of variation (CV). The higher the CV, the more uneven the hitters. Here are the five teams at the extreme ends of the lineup-balance spectrum, ordered from least balanced to most:

 

Team CV

Blue Jays .117

Reds .110

Marlins .107

Tigers .107

Angels .105

— —

Athletics .052

Yankees .051

Twins .050

Phillies .050

Rays .049

Does having the least balanced lineup hurt the Jays? Does having the most balanced lineup help the Rays? No, not really: Neither type of lineup construction helps a team exceed its predicted runs scored or predicted record. However, it’s not as difficult to go from weak to average as it is to go from average to good, which means that a lineup with glaring soft spots should be easier to improve.

 

Off-Field Story Line: Toronto is a candidate for some serious turnover in the front office and field staff. If the Jays don’t at least win a wild-card spot, whoever replaces lame-duck team president Paul Beeston might prefer his own people, which would put manager John Gibbons and GM Alex Anthopoulos in what my podcast cohost Sam Miller and I, in our search for a “hot seat” synonym, have taken to calling the “wobbly chair.”

 

Projected Record and Over/Under: 81-81 — OVER. If you thought Boston’s pitching was shaky, avert your eyes from Toronto’s relief corps. The rotation has promise, though, even without Stroman. As others have observed, Drew Hutchison’s slider seemed to take on new life late last season, which coincided with a dramatic rise in strikeout rate. Maybe he’ll sustain some of that bump. Dickey and Buehrle have historically been locks to eat innings. Rookie Daniel Norris has come a long way in a short while, and could take time to adjust, but he’s more than the classic quirky lefty: He throws 96, and he’s missed bats at every level. And if Sanchez fails as a starter, he’ll become an instant solution to the bullpen problem. The Jays can’t quite rival Boston’s best-in-show offense, but their bats and gloves are good enough to keep them close.

[burlingtonbandit]

Good post. Author needs to do a better job with projected lineups though. No mention of Travis and has Navarro as fulltime DH.

[jaysfan2014]

And no mention of Roberto Osuna or Miguel Castro, who are going to make the bullpen.

[Hipfan]

The article states the Red Sox have the best lineup, without question. I'm not so sure of that; Ramirez is injury prone and Sandoval has been regressing over the past couple of seasons (playoff performance notwithstanding), and Betts is still unproven.

 

I'm not saying they're bad, they could absolutely have the best offensive in the league, but I think there are enough variables and question marks that it's not a given.

[burlingtonbandit]

The article states the Red Sox have the best lineup, without question. I'm not so sure of that; Ramirez is injury prone and Sandoval has been regressing over the past couple of seasons (playoff performance notwithstanding), and Betts is still unproven.

 

I'm not saying they're bad, they could absolutely have the best offensive in the league, but I think there are enough variables and question marks that it's not a given.

 

Whos better? Red Sox also have a ton of depth. Swihart behind Vasquez is probably a better hitter right now. Tons of OF depth etc..

[TBJ12]

I'd take a healthy Jays lineup over the Red Sox.

[Hipfan]

I'd take a healthy Jays lineup over the Red Sox.

 

Me too.

[Gorlak]

The article states the Red Sox have the best lineup, without question. I'm not so sure of that; Ramirez is injury prone and Sandoval has been regressing over the past couple of seasons (playoff performance notwithstanding), and Betts is still unproven.

 

I'm not saying they're bad, they could absolutely have the best offensive in the league, but I think there are enough variables and question marks that it's not a given.

 

Pedroia is losing his power as well and Ortiz will have to show signs of aging eventually. They are in the running for the best offense, but it's not close to a sure thing.

[jaysfan2014]

Whos better? Red Sox also have a ton of depth. Swihart behind Vasquez is probably a better hitter right now. Tons of OF depth etc..

 

But, keep in mind these numbers are projections. There's no taking into account regression, injury, etc. BTW, Vazquez may not be ready for Opening Day. And they really need him.. who knows what Swihart will give them defensively and with pitch framing? And it's more likely Spring or Quintero get called up if Vazquez goes on the DL, as Swihart needs AAA seasoning.

[jaysfan2014]

Pedroia is losing his power as well and Ortiz will have to show signs of aging eventually. They are in the running for the best offense, but it's not close to a sure thing.

 

They'll have Betts getting on base.. but unless Pedroia and Ortiz are healthy and producing, it won't matter. And I don't feel that good about HanRam(health) and Sandoval(declining numbers every year since 2011).. Napoli is showing some age too, and unless Victorino is dealt, Castillo will be in AAA. And they need a real backup infielder on that roster.. Holt isn't going to cut it.

[burlingtonbandit]

But, keep in mind these numbers are projections. There's no taking into account regression, injury, etc. BTW, Vazquez may not be ready for Opening Day. And they really need him.. who knows what Swihart will give them defensively and with pitch framing? And it's more likely Spring or Quintero get called up if Vazquez goes on the DL, as Swihart needs AAA seasoning.

 

Swihart is an excellent pitch framer. Great example of drafting an athletic C and coaching him to be great receiver and defender.

[jaysfan2014]

Whos better? Red Sox also have a ton of depth. Swihart behind Vasquez is probably a better hitter right now. Tons of OF depth etc..

 

And no true backup infielder. Holt is not the answer.. he was a below average defensive infielder at 2B and 3B last year by defensive metrics, and is lacking in range. If injury hits in the INF, the Sox are going to be in trouble. The team needs to trade one of their excess OFs..

[burlingtonbandit]

And no true backup infielder. Holt is not the answer.. he was a below average defensive infielder at 2B and 3B last year by defensive metrics, and is lacking in range. If injury hits in the INF, the Sox are going to be in trouble. The team needs to trade one of their excess OFs..

 

Mookie Betts can play 2nd and then you call up JBJ to CF. Hanley can be backup SS since they have so many OF. They actually have a lot of depth position player wise and are much better off than a ton of teams. They're issue most likely will be pitching. On the other hand if Reyes, Bautista or Donaldson go down for an extended period of time the Jays are likely screwed.

[Spanky99]

Good post. Author needs to do a better job with projected lineups though. No mention of Travis and has Navarro as fulltime DH.

 

Travis didn't meet the criteria, it's explained at the beginning of the article, they're factoring in Goins as Izzy's replacement. They're using RosterResource and at least 300 PA's.

[Spanky99]

Raysjays trolling as per usual.