Kiley McDaniel: Evaluating Blue Jays prospects

[Angrioter]

The Jays have had a steady strategy for amateur player acquisition: spend early and often and take risks. That obviously will lead to some busts, but GM Alex Anthopoulos has had a consistent vision in this regard for his six years running the team and the farm is now flush with talent. The Latin program has developed shortstop and power arms and has done a nice job turning low- and mid-level bonuses into real prospects. The gambles in the draft have also paid off with risky bets on Daniel Norris, Anthony Alford and Aaron Sanchez delivering in some form already while top 2014 pick Jeff Hoffman could be better than all of them if his rehab goes well.

 

It’s also worth noting that the 40 FV group on this list is filled with high upside talent. These prospects are ranked based on trade value, so they’re worth the same as the less exciting, lower upside, higher certainty 40 FV players on other lists, but this means the Jays have a wider range of possibilities in outcomes for their lower level prospects. With a strong development season, a half dozen of these prospects could take a step forward, and, with another strong year of signing amateur talent, could move a top 10-12 system another step forward.

 

 

Here’s the primer for the series and a disclaimer about how we don’t really know anything. See the links above for the ongoing series about how I evaluate, including the series on the ever-complicated hit tool.

 

Most of what you need to know for this list is in the above links, but I should add that the risk ratings are relative to their position, so average (3) risk for a pitcher is riskier than average risk (3) for a hitter, due to injury/attrition being more common. I’d also take a 60 Future Value hitter over a 60 FV pitcher for the same reasons. Also, risk encompasses a dozen different things and I mention the important components of it for each player in the report. The upside line for hitters is the realistic best-case scenario (a notch better than the projected tools, or a 75% projection while the projected tools are a 50% projection) and the Future Value encompasses this upside along with the risk rating for one overall rating number.

 

Below, I’ve included a quick ranking of the notable MLB players 27 and under that aren’t eligible for the Blue Jays prospect list and Dave Cameron shares some general thoughts on the organization. Scroll further down to see Carson Cistulli’s fringe prospect favorite. Up next is the Tigers.

 

1. Daniel Norris, LHP

Current Level/Age: MLB/21.9, 6’2/195, L/L

Drafted: 74th overall (2nd round) in 2011 out of Tennessee HS by TOR for $2.0 million bonus

Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50+

 

Scouting Report: Norris was a well-known prospect coming out of a Tennessee high school, both for his above-average stuff dating back to his sophomore year of high school, but also his troublesome delivery. He slipped to the second round in 2011, but the Jays scooped him up at the 74th overall pick with a $2 million bonus. Norris took the Jays development staff a couple years to clean everything up and unlock his athleticism. Like Dalton Pompey, Norris shot from High-A to the big leagues last year in his age 21 season.

 

Norris sits 91-95 mph with occasional life and a hard, plus 74-76 mph curveball that’s really improved the last couple seasons from a softer version. Norris also adds a 83-85 mph slider that flashes above average with clearly differentiated shape from his curve, along with a mid-80’s changeup that’s average to slightly above at times.

 

Norris still isn’t perfectly online, he can elevate at times when he locks his landing knee and these things lead to a flatter fastball and giving up more hard contact. That said, he’s athletic enough to make all of this work and, when it’s right, the stuff is electric. There’s 2/3 starter upside and Norris now has the command to get there much faster than many would’ve guessed before this season. It’s also worth noting that Norris is quite a character, the real life Matt Foley, literally living in a van that is often near a river.

 

Summation: Norris is getting a chance to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation out of camp, along with Aaron Sanchez. It’s likely he’ll spend some meaningful amount of 2015 in Triple-A, but he’ll probably settle into the rotation by this time next year.

 

FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB

 

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/evaluating-the-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/

[Angrioter]

1. Daniel Norris, LHP

Current Level/Age: MLB/21.9, 6’2/195, L/L

Drafted: 74th overall (2nd round) in 2011 out of Tennessee HS by TOR for $2.0 million bonus

Fastball: 55/60, Curveball: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/50+

 

Scouting Report: Norris was a well-known prospect coming out of a Tennessee high school, both for his above-average stuff dating back to his sophomore year of high school, but also his troublesome delivery. He slipped to the second round in 2011, but the Jays scooped him up at the 74th overall pick with a $2 million bonus. Norris took the Jays development staff a couple years to clean everything up and unlock his athleticism. Like Dalton Pompey, Norris shot from High-A to the big leagues last year in his age 21 season.

 

Norris sits 91-95 mph with occasional life and a hard, plus 74-76 mph curveball that’s really improved the last couple seasons from a softer version. Norris also adds a 83-85 mph slider that flashes above average with clearly differentiated shape from his curve, along with a mid-80’s changeup that’s average to slightly above at times.

 

Norris still isn’t perfectly online, he can elevate at times when he locks his landing knee and these things lead to a flatter fastball and giving up more hard contact. That said, he’s athletic enough to make all of this work and, when it’s right, the stuff is electric. There’s 2/3 starter upside and Norris now has the command to get there much faster than many would’ve guessed before this season. It’s also worth noting that Norris is quite a character, the real life Matt Foley, literally living in a van that is often near a river.

 

Summation: Norris is getting a chance to compete for the #5 spot in the rotation out of camp, along with Aaron Sanchez. It’s likely he’ll spend some meaningful amount of 2015 in Triple-A, but he’ll probably settle into the rotation by this time next year.

 

FV/Role/Risk: 60, #3 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB

 

 

 

2. Jeff Hoffman, RHP

Current Level/Age: None/22.2, 6’4/185, R/R

Drafted: 9th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of East Carolina by TOR for $3.08 million bonus

Fastball: 60/70, Curveball: 55/65, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50+

 

Scouting Report: Hoffman was a known power arm for the 2014 draft at East Carolina, then he broke out in the summer before the draft on the Cape (see the video), flashing an 80 fastball and 65 or 70 curveball from an athletic delivery, projectable frame and shockingly good feel to pitch given the power stuff.

 

He didn’t look the same in the spring and just as he was making adjustments to his delivery to regain prior form, his elbow popped and he got Tommy John surgery. Even with the surgery taking Hoffman out of #1 overall pick contention, the Jays thought he wouldn’t get out of the top 5, so they were pleased to land him with the 9th overall pick.

 

Hoffman drew comparisons to Adam Wainwright and Justin Verlander when he was at his best on the Cape, so if he regains that form, he could shoot to the top of this list in short order. In the 2014 spring at ECU before he got hurt, Hoffman’s tempo was a little too quick, so while his velocity was the same, the curveball was mostly 50 or 55 and rushing through his delivery caused him to leave the ball out to his arm side.

 

Summation: It’s impossible to know what version of Hoffman will emerge when rehab is over; he won’t return until mid-season in 2015. He won’t be expected to be back to full speed until later in 2016 or even 2017, so he’ll likely hover in this range on my lists until it becomes clear what type of pitcher he’ll be going forward.

 

FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA/MLB, 2018: AAA/MLB

 

 

 

 

3. Aaron Sanchez, RHP

Current Level/Age: MLB/22.7, 6’4/200, R/R

Drafted: 34th overall (sandwich round) in 2010 out of California HS by TOR for $775,000 bonus

Fastball: 65/70, Curveball: 55/60, Changeup: 45/50+, Command: 45/45+

 

Scouting Report: Sanchez has a sturdy 6-foot-4/200 frame and loose arm that helped him go in the sandwich round in 2010 out of a southern California high school. He was a raw pitcher with flashes of power stuff then, but Sanchez has really grown into his velocity since then, sitting 95-98 and hitting 99 mph in 33 big league relief innings at the end of 2014.

 

Sanchez sits 93-97 and hits 99 mph has a starter with good life to his plus plus heater. His curveball often flashes plus but could be more consistent, while his changeup has made strides in recent years to now flash solid average, but it will back up at times when he’s more thrower than pitcher. Sanchez has worked hard at the upper level sto try to develop the starter traits necessary to stick in a rotation, but the question remains if he fits better there or as a closer.

 

Summation: Toronto wanted to limit Sanchez’s innings in 2014 and planned before the season to get his feet wet in the big leagues with a bullpen look late in the year. The Jays’ #5 starter spot is still an open competition along with at least one bullpen slot, so Sanchez has the opportunity this year to prove where he fits.

 

FV/Role/Risk: 55, #3/4 starter or Closer, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB

 

 

 

4. Dalton Pompey, CF

Current Level/Age: MLB/22.2, 6’2/195, B/R

Drafted: 486th overall (16th round) in 2010 out of Canadian HS by TOR for $150,000 bonus

Hit: 40/50+, Raw Power: 45/45, Game Power: 35/40, Run: 60/60, Field: 50/55, Throw: 45/45+

 

Scouting Report: Pompey is a great example of players that are young for their high school class having hidden upside: he didn’t turn 18 until 6 months after he was drafted in 16th round by the Jays in 2010. Pompey has taken a huge step forward this year, jumping all the way from High-A to the big leagues in his age 21 season, surprising both scouts and Blue Jays executives. They said the plan was to promote him to give him a better challenge, then he kept excelling and demanding a new challenge until he ended up in the big leagues, where he hit a homer off Felix Hernandez.

 

Pompey is a plus runner with a very good defensive instincts that should make him an average defensive center fielder in short order, though reviews on his arm differ. Power isn’t a part of his game and while he has ordinary bat speed, the bat control and feel to hit are advanced enough to see at least a 50 bat. He toned down his hitting mechanics a bit and his timing really came together in 2014. Pompey had been bothered by minor injuries early in his career but started to break out late in 2013 when he was able to get regular reps.

 

Summation: Pompey looks likely to open the season as the Opening Day center fielder, but at the very least should spend the majority of the season in Toronto. He’s the center fielder of the future and the Jays are clearing the way for him.

 

Upside: .275/.335/.410, 12 homers

FV/Risk: 50, Low (2 on a 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: AAA/MLB

 

 

 

 

5. Max Pentecost, C

Current Level/Age: SS/22.0, 6’2/190, R/R

Drafted: 11th overall (1st round) in 2014 out of Kennesaw State by TOR for $2.888 million bonus

Hit: 20/50+, Raw Power: 20/45+, Game Power: 45/50+, Run: 55/50+, Field: 45/55, Throw: 60/60

 

Scouting Report:Pentecost was the breakout prospect in last summer’s Cape Cod League as a super-athletic catcher from a small school, Kennesaw State. He was very close to signing with the Rangers out of high school for a lower six figure bonus, but the deal was axed over a so-so physical.

 

I was the high guy on Pentecost much of the spring on the heels of his breakout Cape, with the industry catching up when Theo Epstein was spotted at a Pentecost game and rumors spread that he may go #4 overall. Pentecost ended up going #11 overall and has unusual tools for a catcher with a ridiculous amount of energy (watch the end of the linked video) and every tool solid average or better.

 

Pentecost has feel to hit, a smooth cut and the athleticism scouts are looking for. His line drive approach in games causes his raw power to play below average now, though some mechanical adjustments could help that. Defensively, he projects to be at least average and his above average to plus arm is plenty to neutralize the running game. There aren’t many catchers with this level of tools and when you combine the makeup and energy (I’ve seen him back up first base on a routine grounder and beat the runner to the base), it’s hard to pass up.

 

Summation: Pentecost will start the season on the shelf with shoulder surgery and should miss about three months. This doesn’t change his projection or prospect status at all, unless he comes back and the arm strength has regressed significantly. Catchers typically take longer to develop anyway, so he should be a level-at-a-time guy to start his career.

 

Upside: .280/.340/.450, 15-18 homers

FV/Risk: 50, High (4 on a 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A, 2017: AA, 2018: AAA/MLB

 

 

 

 

6. Miguel Castro, RHP

Current Level/Age: High-A/20.2, 6’5/190, R/R

Signed: IFA at age 17 on January 5, 2012 out of Dominican by TOR for $180,000 bonus

Fastball: 65/70, Slider: 40/50+, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/50

 

Scouting Report: Castro signed for a smaller bonus as a projection bet in 2012; he sat in the low 90’s with rough off-speed and not a ton of feel, but a clean arm and projectable frame. He’s taken off since then with 2014 his breakout season. Castro sat 93-96 mph the entire season and got even stronger as the year wore on, sitting 96-98 mph in a short instructs outing in the fall.

 

Castro is still young, very long-limbed and a power arm more than a pitcher at this point, so there’s still plenty of work to be done but the starter traits are here. Castro’s changeup is his best off-speed pitch and it consistently above average, helped by the deception from fastball arm speed and also hitters cheating to catch up with the heater. The question, along with the command, is the breaking ball. Castro’s slider is below average in some outing and flashes solid average in others, and it is best at his peak velocity, with the arm speed making the pitch crisper.

 

Summation: There’s a lot of elements of Yankees RHP Luis Severino here and there’s more projection, but the command, consistency and changeup are all a little behind at this point. I got some very late positive reports and slid him up a bit from where I had him on the top 200; Castro could be a top 100 prospect by the middle of 2015 with continued progress.

FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Closer, High (4 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA, 2017: AAA/MLB

 

 

 

7. Roberto Osuna, RHP

Current Level/Age: High-A/20.1, 6’2/230, R/R

Signed: IFA at age 16 on August 3, 2011 out of Mexico by TOR for $1.5 million bonus

Fastball: 55/60, Cutter: 55/60, Slider: 50/55, Changeup: 50/55, Command: 40/45+

Scouting Report: Osuna signed for $1.5 million in 2011 as a 16-year-old out of Mexico with big league bloodlines from his uncle Antonio Osuna. He had a mature frame and had hit 95 mph, but sat around 90 and relied on pitchability and an above average to plus changeup. His elbow popped in 2013 and he returned from Tommy John surgery late this year with a surprising velocity spike.

 

Osuna’s fastball jumped a couple ticks, to the surprise/delight of Blue Jays execs. He’s now sitting 92-94 and hitting 97 mph, sitting a few ticks higher in short stints, with a slider and cutter that are both above average and the same changeup as before. The command hasn’t quite come back but that usually happens in year two or three after surgery, so Osuna could shoot up this list soon if that all comes together. Some scouts doubt the velocity and command can coexist and assume he moves to the bullpen, but it’s still a little early for firm opinions on that.

 

Summation: Osuna should head back to where he finished 2014, in the High-A Dunedin rotation, with a chance to move quickly if/when the command returns, though Toronto isn’t looking to rush him.

 

FV/Role/Risk: 50, #4 starter/Closer, Medium (3 on 1-5 scale)

Projected Path: 2015: High-A/AA, 2016: AA/AAA/MLB, 2017: AAA/MLB

 

 

8. Devon Travis, 2B Video: This list is full of big bonus players that signed with plenty of hype and Travis is the exact opposite. He signed as a senior out of Florida State in 2012 for $200,000 in the 12th round with the Tigers. Travis smoked both A-Ball levels in his first full season, then performed well in Double-A last year at age 23. That put him on the fast track as a big league option for 2015 and Toronto traded the mercurial Anthony Gose to Detroit for Travis this off-season.

 

Travis doesn’t have flashy tools but has lots of feel and makes the most of his ability. His hit tool is a 55 or 60 and the raw/game power is a 40, with average run, defense and throwing. The plate discipline is solid, but if Travis doesn’t hit, there isn’t much here. That isn’t a massive gamble as Travis’ all-fields, gap-to-gap lie drive approach should translate well to the big leagues; he will get a clear shot to take the big league second base job in 2015 if he hits enough.

 

9. Anthony Alford, CF Video: Alford was a high profile prospect out of a Mississippi high school in the 2012 draft; Toronto gave him $750,000 to play baseball in the summers and play football for Southern Miss then Ole Miss the rest of the year. Alford was an option quarterback and safety on the gridiron, but has decided to fully commit to baseball for 2015. Some scouts said he was a top 10 overall pick level prospect in 2012 if he had completely committed to baseball and the tools are obviously very good.

 

Alford is a plus-plus runner with above average raw power and a solid average arm that easily profiles everyday in center field if he hits. You’d think that would be a big question since he’s had 110 plate appearances in pro ball, but scouts were shocked how much feel to hit he showed in instructs last fall and reports were positive from his stint in the Australian Winter League. If that progress continues this month in Spring Training, expect to see Alford head to Low-A to start the season. Despite the lack of baseball experience, he’ll be an appropriately-aged 20 for Low-A much of the season and could be one of the buzziest prospects in the minors.

 

10. Sean Reid-Foley, RHP Video: The Jays were the only team to take my top available player with their top three picks in the 2014 draft; getting Reid-Foley for a slot bonus in the 2nd round was quite surprising. Reid-Foley had mid-1st round buzz all year, but some weaker outings late in the year along with some concerns about his arm action conspired to knock him down the board. Reid-Foley has a sturdy 6’3/220 frame, aggressive demeanor and power fastball that sits 91-95 and hits 97 mph at it’s best. The fastball can get a bit straight and his changeup is inconsistent but flashes solid average at times.

 

Reid-Foley’s primary out-pitch is an above average to plus slider and he also mixes in an average curveball at times. His arm action is a little worrisome (high back elbow), his fastball can get straight and he’s more of a thrower than pitcher, but Reid-Foley has always thrown strikes. His velocity was more 89-93, touching 94 mph leading up to the draft and last summer after signing, but that’s pretty normal for prep pitchers. He has #3 starter or closer upside and may get a chance to head to Low-A in 2015 at age 19.

 

11. Mitch Nay, 3B Video: Nay signed fro $1 million out of an Arizona high school in 2012 in the sandwich round and comes with bloodlines, as his grandfather Lou Klimchock played 12 big league seasons. Nay is 6’3/200 and is a solid athlete with a plus arm and above average raw power. He also has advanced feel to hit to all fields and is more of a contact-oriented line drive type at this point, but should integrate the power more in the coming years. Nay is solid at third and should be able to stay at the position with his grinder makeup helping make that more likely; he’ll head to High-A next year at age 21.

 

12. Jairo Labourt, LHP Video: Labourt signed for $350,000 out of the Dominican in 2011 on his 17th birthday. He’s made a lot of progress since then, now sitting 91-94 and hitting 95 mph with life along with an above average slider and starter traits. Labourt was chubby but has dropped some bad weight and now has projection remaining at 6’4/200. Toronto sent him to Low-A to start 2014 and the cold weather bothered him, with more walks than strikeouts, but he rebounded later that summer in Vancouver. Labourt’s changeup is average and his control is usually at least average, but his command is still a bit behind. The elements are here for a 3/4 starter, but there’s still some work and Labourt’s 2015 assignment to Low-A should give the 21-year-old a nice challenge.

 

13. Ryan Borucki. LHP Video: Borucki was a low-profile 15th rounder in 2012 from an Illinois high school that got an over-slot $426,000 to sign. He missed 2013 with Tommy John surgery, but the 6’4/175 lefty took a step forward in his return to the mound in 2014. Borucki sits 90-94 with plenty more in the tank and has a solid average curveball and changeup. He’s just starting to scratch the surface coming back from surgery and with projeciton remaining. Borucki has solid feel to pitch and is regarded as a sleeper to breakout in the system in 2015 with his full-season debut coming.

 

14. Dwight Smith, 2B Video: Smith’s father Dwight Sr. had an eight-year big league career and Dwight Jr. had a breakout season in High-A in 2014 making it more likely he can do the same. Smith has a high leg kick and active hands in his swing, but he’s hit, drawn walks and kept the strikeouts down, along with working in some power in games in 2014. He’s a solid average runner with fringy power and a below average arm, so his left field put him in a corner, which has been helped by a conversion to second base. He made progress with the change in the AFL and Toronto thinks he can make it work there as a Frank Catalanotto type 2B/LF with an advanced lefty bat and enough power to punish a mistake.

 

15. Matt Smoral, LHP Video: Smoral was a high profile prospect in the 2012 draft out of an Ohio high school who slipped to the sandwich round (where he got an over-slot $2 million bonus) due to only pitching in one game in his senior year. Smoral had high first round hype and looked solid early but was sidelined by a broken bone in his foot, which was likely caused by a high school growth spurt for the 6’8/220 giant. Smoral has also had trouble with blisters and a cracked fingernail, so he’ll be making his full-season debut in 2015 at age 21.

 

At his best, Smoral sits 91-95, hitting 96 mph with a slider that flashes plus, but his changeup and command both lag behind. Given the size, physical issues and command issues, most assume he’ll end up as a reliever, but there’s #2/3 starter upside if Smoral can right the ship. If he doesn’t, this could end up like a left-handed Alex Meyer, but Smoral needs to stay healthy and throw strikes to get there.

16. Jesus Tinoco, RHP Video: Tinoco signed for $400,000 in September of 2011 out of Venezuela and, despite signing for the least, is the best of the triumvirate of top shelf Venezuelan pitching prospects below, ahead of Meza and Cardona. Tinoco is 6’4/190 and projectable, but already sits 92-95, hitting 97 mph with heavy sink.

 

His slider and changeup both flash above average and some in the organization think his upside is right there with Smoral and maybe even higher since Tinoco is a year younger and has more feel. The starter traits are here, but it’s still early in the process. Tinoco was 90-92 mph in instructs, evidence that he’s still working on adding stamina in anticipation for his 2015 full season debut.

 

17. Alberto Tirado, RHP Video: Tirado signed for $300,000 in 2011 out of the Dominican and has progressed into an intriguing power arm. The 6’0/180 righty has effort to his delivery that leads to command inconsistency and those two things make most scouts project him in the bullpen. If that’s the case, Tirado has plenty of stuff to profile in the back end of the pen: he sits 93-95 and hits 98 mph with life and a wipeout, easy plus slider. The changeup flashes average but is far behind the other two pitches. The fastball command is the next hurdle for Tirado to clear and if he can conquer that, then he’s still got a chance to work into a starting role. He just turned 20 and will get another shot at Low-A in 2015.

 

 

40 FV Prospects

 

18. Clinton Hollon, RHP, Video: Hollon was a high profile prep underclassman, hitting 95 mph in his junior season. The 6’1/195 righty has a loose arm and is highly athletic with an above average to plus fastball and two-plane slider, but he hasn’t been on the mound much in the last couple years. He has some elbow soreness leading up to the 2013 draft where the Jays took him in the 2nd round, but was healthy enough to pitch that summer. He then missed all of 2014 getting Tommy John surgery after problems flared up again.

 

Hollon slipped in the draft due to concerns on his arm health and makeup issues that have followed him for years. He’s smaller and has some effort to his delivery, so it seems likely he’ll end up in the bullpen, but he has shown some feel to pitch and he just turned 20. He also mixes a curveball and changeup that are around average and flash a bit better at times. It’s so early that Hollon could still make the necessary adjustments if he gives himself a chance by staying healthy. The Jays say Hollon should be ready around midseason and he’ll likely head to a short-season club.

 

19. Dan Jansen, C Video: Jansen signed for $100,000 in the 16th round in 2o13 from a Wisconsin high school and the cold weather athlete emerged quicker than expected, putting up nice numbers in his first full season. Jansen has a powerful frame at 6’2/215 and has average raw power that he’s learning to integrate into his game, but he isn’t all tools: he has more walks than strikeouts for his career. The swing is good and he was limited by a knee issue in 2014, but has a 55 arm and enough ability to stick behind the plate. His full-season debut comes in 2015 and he’s a favorite of many in the organization to take a big step forward this season.

 

20. Richard Urena, SS Video: Urena signed for $725,000 in 2012 out of the Dominican as yet another toolsy big money July 2 signing for the Jays. Either Urena or Gundino is the best defensive shortstop in the organization and both are having some trouble with the bat, but Urena is bigger, a year older and has a much better track record of hitting, though it isn’t exactly sterling.

 

At 6’1/170 and with a solid lefty swing Urena checks the boxes, but some scouts see too much weak contact and aren’t bullish on the offensive upside. Jays sources are more bullish: thinking there’s 15 homer upside and calling Urena one of the best bets to shoot up the list next year, with some arguing he should be in the top 10 right now. The swing is good and he’ll make his full-season debut next year at age 19, so he’ll get the opportunity to show what he can do.

[Angrioter]

21. Yeltsin Gudino, SS Video: Gudino signed for $1.2 million in 2013 out of Venezuela and was one of my favorite players from the class due to his silky smooth swing and defensive prowess. The question then and now is if he can add bulk to his frame, as he’s a rail thin 6’0/150 right now. Gudino may be the best glove in the system, projecting as a plus defender and thrower with above average speed. The Jays challenged him in his first full season, sending him to the GCL at 17 and he didn’t perform at all (.386 OPS). If he can put on 20 pounds over the next couple years, we could be looking at a Raul Mondesi or Francisco Lindor level talent, but it’s hard to bear down too hard until he bulks up.

 

22. Juan Meza, RHP Video: Meza trained with Carlos Guillen and was one of the top arms available last July 2nd; the Jays got the Venezuelan righty for $1.6 million. He’s got projection at 6’3/190, a good delivery, very advanced feel for his age, above average life on his 88-91 sinker that’s hit 93 mph and an above average changeup. His slurvy breaking ball flashes solid average but is inconsistent and the weakest point of this game right now. With continued health and further projection coming through, you can see a mid-rotation starter coming from this, but it’s still very early.

 

23. Lane Thomas, 2B, Video: Thomas was a favorite prospect of mine last summer, but pre-draft buzz is there wasn’t a team that would meet his asking price. The Jays swooped in and gave him $750,000 in the 5th round last summer to buy out a commitment to Tennessee. The Jays converted Thomas from a prep shortstop that played center field for his travel team to a pro second baseman.

 

Thomas is a plus runner with fringy raw power that plays down in games due to a line drive game approach. He has above average but not outrageous bat speed and advanced feel for the bat head. If the conversion to second continues going well, he profiles at two up-the-middle positions and as an everyday guy, if the bat continues to come along as it has so far.

 

24. Dawel Lugo, SS Video: Lugo signed for $1.3 million in 2011 out of the Dominican and has progressed nicely, still showing big tools, but the performance has been a little uneven. He can play shortstop for now, but is a fringy runner with limited range that likely slides him to third base, possible to second base, though that would waste his 65 arm. Lugo has fringy raw power that may be average to slightly above at one point, but he’s still having some trouble combining these elements into an offensive approach at this point. He can hit for power in games when he’s more aggressive and sits on fastballs, but the walk/strikeout numbers get out of whack, so he’ll need to make more adjustments, but he just turned 20 so there’s plenty of time.

 

25. A.J. Jimenez, C Video: Jimenez isn’t a real exciting prospect. He’s a glove first catcher that’s close to big league ready, is an above average receiver with a plus arm, but he has trouble staying on the field and making an offensive impact. His power is well below average in games and the approach is gap-to-gap contact without many strikeouts, so when the numbers aren’t strong that means it’s a lot of weak contact. Jimenez has had trouble with nagging injuries and durability, so he’s limited to a backup role, though his bat isn’t enough to play everyday anyway. He’s ready for a big league look in 2015 but is blocked at the moment, so this is a good season for him to get a healthy year under his belt and force the issue.

 

26. Adonys Cardona, RHP Video: Cardona was the consensus top arm in his July 2nd class and the Jays gave the Venezuelan righty $2.8 million in 2010. When he signed, he had average big league stuff as a 16-year-old with a clean arm and all kinds of projection, and that’s mostly held up. Cardona has run his heater into the high-90’s, his curveball was scrapped for a slider when he lowered his slot and it’s consistently above average while his changeup also flashes above average.

 

He hasn’t had surgery, but his elbow keeps getting sore and shutting him down, limiting Cardona to 83.1 IP over 4 pro seasons, with 31.2 IP in 2011 a career high. If they can get to the underlying cause of the soreness, Cardona’s raw ability is at least a mid-rotation starter, but this type of story usually ends as a reliever, and the stuff is closer level if he can stay on the mound.

 

27. Rowdy Tellez, 1B Video: Tellez was on a loaded Elk Grove High School team in 2013 that had Rockies C Dom Nunez (40 FV) and Tigers CF Derek Hill (50 FV), a 2014 1st rounder, with other notable alumni including Buck Martinez and Scott Boras. Tellez is listed at 6’4/220 and he’s probably a bit bigger than that, but he used to be way bigger than that as an amateur.

 

His carrying tool is 65 raw power from the left side and Tellez also has a solid approach at the plate to go with some looseness to his swing, along the lines of a taller version of the Cubs 1B Dan Vogelbach (45+ FV). Tellez is a little more conventionally athletic than Vogelbach and is fringy to average at first base, but scouts will want to see his size stay under control along with huge numbers. Tellez will get his first extended look in full-season ball next year at age 20.

 

28. Jake Brentz, LHP Video: Brentz popped up in the fall before his draft year as an athletic prep outfielder than ran it into the mid-90’s and flashed an above average curveball and changeup in his first few times on the mound, which is the outing from the linked video. As a prep kid from Missouri, Brentz didn’t face great prep competition or warm weather when scouts went back to see him in the spring. The Jays scooped him up in the 2013 draft for $700,000 in the later rounds because Brentz had trouble throwing strikes and showing consistent stuff, which continued in 47.1 pro innings.

 

Jays sources says Brentz has cleaned up his delivery this off-season, allowing his athleticism to play and command his stuff better; he’s a sleeper for many in the organization who expect a 2015 breakout. Late in 2014, scouts that saw him last year all said reliever only, so the range of possibilities is wide, but he would sit 92-94 mph with an above average to plus curveball, though the changeup had regressed. Even with just marginal improvements, he has the look of a late-inning option and he’s still new to pitching.

 

29. Matt Boyd, LHP Video: Boyd was a senior sign out of Oregon State in 2013 that got $75,000 in the 6th round after making real progress in his last amateur year. He’s always been a little funky, but Boyd went from LOOGY-type to possible starter after raising his arm slot and smoothing out the delivery a bit, which helped him hit 95 mph.Boyd got to Double-A in his first full season (age 23) with excellent numbers, but some scouts still think there isn’t enough here to stick as a starter.

 

He sits 88-92 and hits 94 mph with a solid average changeup, a fringy curveball and a below average slider. He has good feel for his off-speed stuff and his breaking pitches will flash average at times, but fastball command and a consistent breaking is what’s holding him back. The likely outcome is a spot starter/long man that can match up on lefties and be a valuable member of a staff, but the lack of a breaking ball would make him a non-traditional LOOGY.

 

30. D.J. Davis. CF Video: Davis was a 1st rounder out of a Mississippi high school in 2012 that was seen as a high risk/high reward from a state with a terrible track record in the draft. Davis hasn’t come around yet, but he’s still just 20 and the tools are still outstanding. He has above average raw power, easy plus speed and a fringy arm that comfortably profile everyday in center field if Davis can make progress with his feel for the game and contact rate. That’s a pretty big if, but some standout big leaguers with big tools developed late, so it’s too early to give up on Davis.

 

31. Conner Greene, RHP Video: Greene was a 7th rounder that signed for $100,000 in 2013 out of Santa Monica High School. I mention the high school because that’s one of the wealthiest areas around Los Angeles and I’m told Greene’s dad is friends with Charlie Sheen. Greene has an IMDB page that lists an appearance on Sheen’s post-Two and a Half Men show on FX, Anger Management.

 

Greene has developed into a good projection bet on the mound, with his velo ticking up since his amateur days, now sitting 88-92 mph. His changeup is the better of his off-speed pitches, flashing above average, while his curveball is average at times but isn’t consistent and can get soft in the mid-70’s. Greene has good feel to pitch, a smooth delivery and a near ideal pitcher’s frame, which explains why he drew some trade attention at least year’s deadline; there’s a potential 3/4 starter if this all comes together.

 

32. Angel Perdomo, LHP: Perdomo is a bit of a late bloomer, pitching in the GCL last year at age 20, but the big guys typically take longer and Perdomo is pretty big at 6’6/210. His delivery is solid given the size and age, he’s made strides with it in recent years and is able to pound the bottom of the zone. Perdomo’s fastball is already hitting 97 mph now, sitting 92-94 regularly with more projection left in his frame. Scouts give different account of whether his slider or changeup is better at this point, but both will flash average at times. There’s still a long way to go with command and consistency to his secondaries, but the ceiling is still high and there’s some elements already here.

 

33. Nick Wells, LHP: Wells was the Jays’ 3rd rounder last year out of a Virginia high school and the super projectable 6’5/175 lefty was completely off the scouting radar entering the spring. Wells didn’t go to any of the major events and threw 84-89 mph in October at a big tournament, but popped up regularly sitting around 88-91 in the spring and hitting 93 mph. He’s still very skinny but the velocity has held and he hit 94 mph in instructs this fall. The arm action and delivery are good, the curveball flashes average to slightly above at times but the changeup is still a work in progress, so there’s still a ways to go.

 

34. John Stilson, RHP Video: Stilson has been in the upper levels of the minors the last few years and is the typical risky reliever with a big arm that’s near big league ready. He has some shoulder issues around the draft in 2011 then a ribcage injury in 2013 and more shoulder soreness down the stretch in 2014. Stilson sits 92-96 and hits 97 mph with an inconsistent slider that’s above average at times, along with a changeup with splitter action that’s an average pitch. He needs to stay healthy and get more consistent, but he’s close to being a big league 7th or 8th inning guy with some improvements.

 

35. Matt Dean, 1B Video: Like Brentz, Dean was another later round prep gamble for the Jays; Dean signed for $737,500 in 2011 out of a Texas HS. As a big, projectable third baseman, Dean has taken a little while to get going offensively and got bigger (6’3/215 now) in the interim; he flashes plus raw power potential from the right side with some feel to hit and a nice swing, but his aggressive approach needs to be toned down a bit as there’s some swing-and-miss to his game. The power is starting to show up in games as Dean has shifted across the diamond, but he has an above average arm, so he can still play passably at all four corner spots right now, though third base long-term looks unlikely.

[spats]

Quite an impressive list. I'm really interested to watch Alford's progress this year...he could end up being in the top 5 by the end of the year.

[z3r0s]

I'd be pretty disappointed if none of Norris, Sanchez, Hoffman, Osuna, or Castro was better than a #3-4 pitcher. Hoping the 'future roles' are off a bit here.

[sdyment]

One word. Deeeeeeeep....

[Sammy225]

Gladly take that projection on Pentecost... Got a great catcher ahead of him to learn from as well.

[HERPDERP]

I thought Castro had good command? this guy says differently and calls him a thrower

[Angrioter]

The Top-Five Blue Jays Prospects by Projected WAR

by Carson Cistulli

 

Earlier today, Kiley McDaniel published his consummately researched and demonstrably authoritative prospect list for the Toronto Blue Jays. What follows is a different exercise than that, one much smaller in scope and designed to identify not Toronto’s top overall prospects but rather the rookie-eligible players in the Jays’ system who are most ready to produce wins at the major-league level in 2015 (regardless of whether they’re likely to receive the opportunity to do so). No attempt has been made, in other words, to account for future value.

 

Below are the top-five prospects in theToronto system by projected WAR. To assemble this brief list, what I’ve done is to locate the Steamer 600 projections for all the prospects to whom McDaniel assessed a Future Value grade of 40 or greater. Hitters’ numbers are normalized to 550 plate appearances; starting pitchers’, to 150 innings — i.e. the playing-time thresholds at which a league-average player would produce a 2.0 WAR. Catcher projections are prorated to 415 plate appearances to account for their reduced playing time.

 

Note that, in many cases, defensive value has been calculated entirely by positional adjustment based on the relevant player’s minor-league defensive starts — which is to say, there has been no attempt to account for the runs a player is likely to save in the field. As a result, players with an impressive offensive profile relative to their position are sometimes perhaps overvalued — that is, in such cases where their actual defensive skills are sub-par.

 

5. Dalton Pompey, OF (Profile)

PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+ WAR

550 .235 .291 .356 80 0.3

A reasonable projection for a player with limited or no major-league experience requires the translation of that same minor leaguer’s stats to their major-league equivalents. There’s essentially a “penalty,” then, for numbers produced at Triple-A relative to the major leagues — and ever greater penalties for Double-A stats, High-A stats, etc. Pompey represents an interesting case insofar as he began the 2014 season at High-A Dunedin — indeed, remained there until the end of June — but ended it with the parent club. So, despite the fact that Pompey produced mostly competent lines in higher levels, a projection system like Steamer won’t ignore those 300-plus plate appearances in the Florida State League during which he produced very good, but also not unprecedented, numbers. If the projection appears muted relative to Pompey’s tools and/or late-season performance, this is the likely explanation.

 

4. A.J. Jimenez, C (Profile)

PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+ WAR

415 .231 .268 .334 65 0.5

McDaniel begins his assessment of Jimenez by noting that the latter “isn’t a real exciting prospect.” The projections support this evaluation. Jimenez is forecast for only about a .100 isolated power (ISO), nor are the plate discipline (4.4% BB, 17.5% K) or batted-ball (.268 BABIP) projections particularly compelling. Jimenez has made contact at a slightly above-average rate in the high minors, however, while also establishing himself as a legitimate catcher defensively. Those two variables conspire to produce an adequate, present-day bench player. The half-a-win projection is reflective of that.

 

3. Daniel Norris, LHP (Profile)

IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP WAR

100 9.1 3.8 1.0 3.90 0.9

The left-handed Norris produced the highest strikeout- and walk-rate differential (23.9 points) among all qualified minor-league starters who recorded even one inning above High-A. The advantage of that metric is not only that it begins to stabilize in a relatively small sample, but also that it’s a simple and elegant predictor of future run prevention. In terms of expected usage, I’ve actually taken the liberty of publishing Norris’s projection over 100 innings — so, in a hybrid starting/relief role. The result is about a win — which might seem modest relative to Norris’s performance in 2014, but is also the product of his less dominant 2012 and -13 seasons, plus the fact that he didn’t even leave High-A until mid-June.

 

2. Matt Boyd, LHP (Profile)

IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 FIP WAR

150 7.4 2.8 1.1 4.14 1.6

Like Norris, Boyd is a left-hander who began the 2014 season in the Florida State League and then proceeded to produce one of the best strikeout- and walk-rate differentials among qualified starters at High-A or above (20.9 points, third overall by that criteria). Boyd’s pedigree and repertoire differ from Norris’s, however. While the latter was given a $2 million bonus out of high school, the latter received just $75 thousand following his senior year at Oregon State. As one might expect, Boyd possess less velocity and less dynamic repertoire. Despite conceding a bunch of runs following a midseason promotion to Double-A — he recorded a 6.96 ERA in 42.2 innings over 10 starts — his strikeout and walk rates were still solid. Steamer is likely to weight the latter more considerably than the former.

 

1. Devon Travis, 2B (Profile)

PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+ WAR

550 .258 .302 .397 94 1.8

Like Boyd, Travis is another player who’s outperformed his pedigree. Signed for $200 thousand (or roughly a fifth round-type bonus) following his senior season at Florida State, he’s produced solid all-around offensive numbers despite the absence of a real carrying tool. What he does possess, however, is a combination of solid plate-discipline and contact skills, non-negligible game power, and the capacity to play second base. It’s a combination of skills all likely to be valued more highly by a projection system than a scout. Together, they conspire to produce a nearly league-average projection for a player who hasn’t made an appearance above Double-A. Encouraging, that.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-top-five-blue-jays-prospects-by-projected-war/

[NorthOf49]

Matt West: "huge arm speed has hit 100 mph... plus plus fastball, average slider."

 

fap fap fap

[Deadpool]

Top 5 qualified starters in the minor leagues A and above in 2014 in K-BB%:

Daniel Norris 23.9

Taylor Cole 22.6

Matt Boyd 20.6

Liam Hendriks 20.5

Taylor Williams 20.5

 

What in the actual f***? That seems crazily unlikely.

[burlingtonbandit]

Couple comments from Kiley in the comment section that will want to make you get out your tissues and lube:

 

Mike Green says:

March 9, 2015 at 10:46 am

Medium risk for Hoffman? I guess there’s a difference of opinion about expectations following TJ (see the recent Fleisig article on techgraphs).

 

Kiley McDaniel says:

March 9, 2015 at 2:54 pm

He’s demonstrated 70 FV ability, so I think it’s only medium risk that he’s a 55 FV..

 

CrazyPants says:

March 9, 2015 at 11:16 am

You really think there are 10 systems better than this one?!

 

They are absolutely loaded with arms. I don’t think anyone has the arms arsenal they have (Nats and Mets maybe closest). They are a little behind the curve in position prospects perhaps. That might be the only thing keeping them on the fringe of the top ten. maybe.

 

Kiley McDaniel says:

March 9, 2015 at 2:56 pm

I was intentionally vague there since I haven’t stacked up the systems yet. I would bet they are top 10, but I think I put them 11th on a first pass, though the list changed a good bit since then.

[Molitor]

I find it surprising that none of our top tier starter prospects are projecting higher than a #3. Probably a noob question but are these prospect rankings always super conservative or is this what we can reasonably expect from the group? I see something in the blurb at the top about the rankings being based on trade value; not sure if that means Norris could be traded for a #3 starter or something.

[Atothe]

Don't like the Urena spot but okay with everything else

[Ehjays]

Anyone else think he;s off on Hoffmans ETA to MLB

 

Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA/MLB, 2018: AAA/MLB

 

I think he'll get here sooner than that.

[Laika]

Anyone else think he;s off on Hoffmans ETA to MLB

 

Projected Path: 2015: Low-A, 2016: High-A/AA, 2017: AA/AAA/MLB, 2018: AAA/MLB

 

I think he'll get here sooner than that.

 

Seems reasonable to me. Hoffman could get there sooner (September 2016, making team in 2017) but it's much more likely that he'll hit some injury/developmental bumps which delay his ascent.