FG: How Good of a Weapon Did Drew Hutchison Find?

[TwistedLogic]

http://i.gyazo.com/5202564049e73ab17d3280ccc4ef5837.png

Have I mentioned lately how helpful the chats can be when it comes to finding things to write

about? You guys don’t know how valuable you are. Dozens upon dozens of questions, if not

hundreds upon hundreds, and out of those questions, longer posts can occasionally germinate.

This is one of them! Because I’ve noticed a recurring kind of question about Drew Hutchison,

and how much he might be capable of in 2015.

 

Pulling an example, from earlier January:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/3834aa99dda5a10d6c16c6838f7c5033.png

 

Dave’s right, of course. The smart thing to do is to always bet against a breakout, as foretold

by an encouraging second half. But that’s also boring, and one figures encouraging second

halves can sometimes mean something for the season to come. We’re all just here to analyze,

right? So, let’s do some analysis. What on earth was the deal with Drew Hutchison’s slider?

 

Turns out this is really easy to spot. We’ll turn to Brooks Baseball, as we usually do. Hutchison

has thrown a slider all along, but late last year, something was different. A plot of average

game velocities:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/a8714482f2c21c96b91a8fa662dd904a.png

 

You see the slider dropping down to the far right side. This is maybe even more apparent when

we look at a plot of average vertical movements:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/1f87d411b2485fc5412a143eac3ba38a.png

 

That’s abrupt. All of a sudden, Hutchison’s slider was a tick or two slower, and it was dropping

another three or four inches. It had bounced around a little bit before, but never like this, and

never with so much consistency. Something was different. Hutchison, it seems, made some kind

of tweak.

 

Or he just figured out almost overnight how to deliver his breaking ball with far greater consis-

tency. Now grabbing images from Texas Leaguers:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonPitches.gif

 

It’s easy to see the green blob move. But it’s not like things changed dramatically — there’s

overlap between the two blobs, such that the sliders Hutchison was throwing down the stretch

last year did have some precedent. Earlier in 2014, Hutchison did throw some sliders with a lot

of vertical break. But toward the end, he threw them almost exclusively. Through August 17,

55% of Hutchison’s sliders had a vertical movement reading below 0, according to PITCHf/x.

Afterward, 99%. That’s not the kind of thing that can be explained by coincidence.

 

Here’s one of Hutchison’s finest sliders from that final stretch:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonSL3.gif

 

That’s a beautiful pitch. A seemingly unhittable pitch? But here’s a similar slider, from June:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonSL1.gif

 

And here’s a completely different slider, from the same game:

 

http://cdn.fangraphs.com/blogs/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/HutchisonSL2.gif

 

Because there was precedent, I don’t want to say that Drew Hutchison picked up a new pitch. He’d

thrown those late-season sliders before. He’d just never thrown so many of them. He all but elimi-

nated the harder sliders, the borderline cutters. What’s odd is that Hutchison hasn’t talked about this

at all, to my knowledge. I just find some generic remarks about better consistency. But, I also

haven’t consumed every single piece of Blue Jays media since August, so maybe I’m missing some-

thing. Toronto opponents had their eyes open:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/3a53660cfac58d14bce56c9d7f28ef82.png

 

From Chase Headley, perhaps meaningfully:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/10c1a88f6a16e30573c34dc5dc3a17bc.png

 

It’s clear, from those quotes, the Yankees were unprepared for the slider Hutchison was throwing.

They’d seen him plenty before, and they’d seen him throw sliders plenty before, but on August 30,

the slider was different and extremely effective. Hutchison was worse when he faced the Yankees

again three weeks later. I don’t know how much to make of that.

 

I think I accidentally skipped right by the very reason this is so interesting. The PITCHf/x plots

show a significant change between Hutchison’s starts on August 17 and August 24. Why don’t we

go ahead and split his season into bits?

 

http://i.gyazo.com/6ffda540eea4a118991f8f4c8a43f494.png

 

That’s a gigantic change in performance. And along with the different slider characteristics came

different slider usage patterns. First, he threw the slider 21% of the time. Then, 31%. First, he

threw the slider 33% of the time with two strikes. Then, 45%. The slider became the preferred

putaway pitch against both righties and lefties, despite its reputation as a pitch with a broad pla-

toon split. Pitch patterns don’t change randomly. Not like this, not over a handful of games in a

row. Hutchison developed a lot more confidence in his slider. He knew what he was able to do

with it, and he was having a lot more success keeping it consistently down and mostly out of the

zone without being too far out of the zone.

 

So Hutchison polished his slider and became more consistent with it over the course of seven

starts or so. He immediately increased his level of trust in it, which allowed him to back off some

from his changeup, which has never been a plus delivery to lefties. Between a low sharp slider

and a high fastball, Hutchison mostly succeeded with two weapons. The changeup is still present

to keep hitters honest.

 

Combing through the Baseball Prospectus PITCHf/x leaderboards, I noticed you can split by month.

I looked for sliders thrown by right-handed starters last September, and I set a minimum of 50

sliders thrown. Hutchison’s slider has the lowest average vertical movement. The only other slider

close: Jason Hammel‘s. Interestingly, about Hammel’s slider:

 

http://i.gyazo.com/9a593e8bff3b422f9972e7668af32898.png

 

Hammel’s slider also experienced a midseason change in vertical break. It’s a decent comp for

Hutchison’s, in terms of velocity and movement. Like Hutchison, Hammel threw his slider pretty

often against left-handed hitters. And he was a lot better against lefties in 2014 than he was the

year before. They say the slider isn’t a great pitch for righties to throw to lefties, but that’s a rule

that has to have exceptions.

 

The question is, what now? Hutchison was absurdly good after he started exclusively using his

slower and bigger-breaking slider. That’s the encouraging bit. He did finish strong, and it does

look like a quality breaking ball, visually. Hutchison’s increased confidence in the pitch can’t be

written off. On the other hand, there are two things. For one, who’s to say Hutchison’s slider

will be so consistent again in 2015? And for two, now teams will have had more of a chance to

prepare. The Yankees were caught off guard in August by Hutchison’s breaking ball. They were

more successful the next time they met. Players in the league are always adjusting, and adjust-

ments back don’t always happen immediately. There can be a delay, and perhaps, in Hutchison’s

case, the word is out that his slider has a lot more consistent depth.

 

As long as Tyson Ross exists, there’s reason to believe righties can be effective against lefties

leaning heavily on a slider. Hutchison demonstrated his own ability through seven late-season

starts. It’s absolutely right to be encouraged. And it’s absolutely right to be curious. Hutchison’s

slider might just be a part of him now. And in 2015, opposing teams get to take that into consi-

deration. Somewhere in August, Drew Hutchison figured out his breaking ball. Now it’s on the

league to try to figure out Drew Hutchison.

Edited January 29, 2015 by TwistedLogic

[GNick49]

I wouldn't say second half stats are fool's errand....but something that should be checked out. I remember Bautista had 10 homers in Aug/Sept one year. Next year he exploded for 54 despite never hitting more than 16 any previous season in his career. An astute observer would have noticed change in his stats before he broke out.

[burlingtonbandit]

I wouldn't say second half stats are fool's errand....but something that should be checked out. I remember Bautista had 10 homers in Aug/Sept one year. Next year he exploded for 54 despite never hitting more than 16 any previous season in his career. An astute observer would have noticed change in his stats before he broke out.

 

Well look how Ubaldo Jiminez turned out last year. Everyone was pointing to his 2nd half in 2013 and it was probably more about the teams he faced than anything else.

[TwistedLogic]

What are the chances of seeing an article like this about two different young pitchers in your staff in the same off-season. First the piece about Stroman finding Halladay's sinker, and now Hutchison's evolved slider. Hopefully these repertoire upgrades continue to be effective and carry over into the coming seasons, and these guys continue to try and find ways to make themselves better. You also have to assume that adding a guy like Martin can only help the development of these young pitchers and give them even more confidence in finding ways to evolve and adjust.

[HERPDERP]

Well Jeff Sullivan wrote both of them Maybe he's got a pro-Jays bias, like Morosi for fox!

[burlingtonbandit]

Funny thing is coming up through the system all the scouts were saying his slider was below average and the chanegup was plus. Now it seems completely reversed with the slider being the plus pitch and changeup being below average.

[TwistedLogic]

When you see these kind of major adjustments being made in-season for multiple guys, it makes you wonder if someone on the coaching staff is helping these guys find these things about themselves. Or maybe we've really been blessed with young pitchers that are so self-aware that they've figured out these adjustments on their own. Both ways, it's good news for Jays fans.

[Deadpool]

When you see these kind of major adjustments being made in-season for multiple guys, it makes you wonder if someone on the coaching staff is helping these guys find these things about themselves. Or maybe we've really been blessed with young pitchers that are so self-aware that they've figured out these adjustments on their own. Both ways, it's good news for Jays fans.

 

I bet it was Navarro...

[GNick49]

Well look how Ubaldo Jiminez turned out last year. Everyone was pointing to his 2nd half in 2013 and it was probably more about the teams he faced than anything else.

 

He was in contract year

[dineke]

I bet it was Navarro...

 

I think we need to trade Martin.

[bronson44]

Hutch and Odorizzi:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-pitchers-underrated-by-both-era-and-fip/

 

Money quote:

"Expect major steps forward in the near term, with top five Cy Young Award finishes not of the question in 2015."

[Frank Menechino]

Hutch and Odorizzi:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/two-pitchers-underrated-by-both-era-and-fip/

 

Money quote:

"Expect major steps forward in the near term, with top five Cy Young Award finishes not of the question in 2015."

 

 

brb, gotta fap