From goat to hero in 3 moves

[Spanky99]

The Jays don't suck. I don't think they are the favorites either. I think they are a top 10 team right now. If they traded for, or signed a #1, I think they could be a top 5 team. I think Boston signs Lester and/or trades for another front end starter. I also don't think the Jays are done yet either, so I prefer to wait until opening day until I see what the rosters are before saying, the Jays are not making or making the playoffs this year. Everyone is entitled to their opinion.

 

This is true.

[JFD]

The Jays suck, amirite? Always the contrarian, you're not even a fan, the big bad Blue Jays came in and stole the Expos glory...*sighs*

 

they do suck until they prove that they don't suck.

[Chappy]

Dude do you even understand how that billion dollar industry works? They are not in the business of prediction sports results (a fool's errand anyways). They are in the business of predicting betting trends (to insulate themselves from risk). That's what Vegas odds are all about. They couldn't care less who wins. They just want to set up the odds in such a way as they get as close to a 50/50 split on the over/under as possible.

 

Lol, I was going to post something similar. He has literally no idea why odds are set the way they are.

[Spanky99]

they do suck until they prove that they don't suck.

 

K..............

[Nox]

They are not in the business of prediction sports results (a fool's errand anyways).

 

That's not really true anymore. Modern books often will take a position that is not 100% market neutral because their models tell them there's a better way to maximize growth (within a certain risk tolerance).

[KingKat]

That's not really true anymore. Modern books often will take a position that is not 100% market neutral because their models tell them there's a better way to maximize growth (within a certain risk tolerance).

 

Yeah I'm a bit out of my depth here. I knew you could better handle this but I think my general point still holds.

[baloojayz]

So uhhh... They're guessing?

 

I dunno about you, but I get the impression from this thread that we're discussing the facts as they stand now, not saying "hey, if we do nothing, and the Red Sox sign Lester and Scherzer, we're still the best team!"

RedSox signing SP is basically a lock. All my posts and oddsmakers have taken that into account surely. Redsox upgrading their rotation is somewhat inevitable while we are more or less stuck, giving up current prospects doesn't make sense and we don't have money to spend by the looks of it.

[Nox]

Yeah I'm a bit out of my depth here. I knew you could better handle this but I think my general point still holds.

 

Meh, it's a pretty understandable, tiny error on your part. The way you describe the situation is how it worked for a long, long time and I'm sure some books still operate in exactly that fashion.

[kgm1]

Wow, good for you. So level headed with your decades and decades of life experience. The true super-fan that we should all aspire to be!

 

How about this:

 

1) AA was awesome when he was re-tooling the team

2) AA sucked ass when he was first trying to push the team to competitiveness

3) AA has learned from some of his transaction mistakes and improved his approach, OR, the real issue at #2 was the heavy-handed influence of Beeston/Rogers and that has been lifted somewhat this offseason.

 

The guy still needs to show that he can put the finishing touches on a roster and build a team that's actually robust, and not waiting to crumble at the seams.

 

I never come here anymore but i had to come back and read this thread.

Wow it is so good for we stupid peons that do read this forum that there are f***ing smart obviously autistic *******s like you to stoop so low and inform the casual how to actually run a ball club. just can't believe companies like Rogers haven't hired someone from this board.

 

Oh wait they had one like that already and JP riccardi totally failed.

[Boxcar]

Couldn't we then assume that these recent moves were also because his hand is being forced by upper management? Does upper management deserve credit here if they get blame there? There's actually much more evidence now that things have been partially steered from up top than there was in 2012.

 

Regardless, it's all speculation. And for that reason, I think given the information you have to work with I would remain agnostic on upper management's degree of meddling.

 

Good things = AA

Bad things = Beeston

 

Get your s*** together, dummy!

[Boxcar]

Well, easy there cowboy. We aren't top 5 yet. Jays are in at 14/1 according to oddshark (they provide a lot of data to various vegas bookies). Jays are currently at 14/1 to win the 2015 world series. That's tied with SF/SEA. They are somewhere in the top 10, but Boston is a favorite right now. Remember, oddsmakers generally don't just use current info, they try putting in future info like (open offers, guessing what future moves the club might do) to their odds so they use all available information.

 

But no, the Jays are not one of the best, they would need to be a top 5 team for that, which they aren't, unless you are smarter than the Vegas oddsmakers. I somehow don't think you'd be posting on these forums if you were

 

holy f***

 

can we start screening people before theyre allowed to post?

[Deadpool]

holy f***

 

can we start screening people before theyre allowed to post?

 

Yeah, OriolesHangout isn't exactly a model we should be following

[Nox]

I never come here anymore

 

I probably wouldn't have come back here after the King is star reporter thread either.