From goat to hero in 3 moves

[Nox]

The difference is that upper management almost always has a large hand in moves of that calibre, with the payroll implications that it had. Illitch with Fielder and Moreno with Pujols/Wilson come to mind. All of those were dumb moves by guys that are considered decent (Dipoto) to very good (Dombrowski) GM's. I'm just going off of Beeston's composure throughout his interviews that were documented in "Great Expectations" and making a deduction based on that. Like we've both said though, all of this is limited to simply speculation, so there's no way of really knowing, and people are free to conclude what they personally believe is the most realistic scenario.

 

If upper management was involved in 2012 because of the magnitude of the deals, then we surely expect that they would be when trading Canadian Casual Panty Wetter Brett Lawrie. So if you're opinion is that management is meddlesome, then they should remain meddlesome as time goes on. You have nowhere near enough information to figure out exactly when they are f***ing around with things and when they're not. Either that's their tendency and you form opinions off that (fine) or you remain agnostic. Anything more fine-grained is just spinning narrative.

[Nox]

But I'm a pretty level headed guy overall

 

Hurl - I've seen you kill a man with your bare hands over a debate regarding Bobby Hurley's douchiness. I cannot vouch for the statement you make.

Edited December 5, 2014 by Nox

[TwistedLogic]

If upper management was involved in 2012 because of the magnitude of the deals, then we surely expect that they would be when trading Canadian Casual Panty Wetter Brett Lawrie. So if you're opinion is that management is meddlesome, then they should remain meddlesome as time goes on. You have nowhere near enough information to figure out exactly when they are f***ing around with things and when they're not. Either that's their tendency and you form opinions off that (fine) or you remain agnostic. Anything more fine-grained is just spinning narrative.

 

As I've already said, I don't think there's much budge in either side of this debate so the best we can do is agree to disagree. Brett Lawrie being traded away is precisely why I think that upper management is no longer meddling in baseball operations. Rogers has a new CEO, and Beeston could have lost his job last month, giving him enough of a motive to finally let go. Or maybe I'm wrong and AA randomly shifts from being a great GM to a terrible GM to a great GM again, which makes less sense to me than meddlesome executives, but is theoretically still plausible.

 

Anyways, who cares, the FO is doing well right now and we should be enjoying that rather than dwelling on their past failures.

[TwistedLogic]

I still think that if you give certain people around here (Nox and JFaS are the two obvious ones) the 2011 Jays and tell them that you have and extra $50M to play with they are going to build this team into a playoff team before this point. Of course JFaS would have been like 15 at the time.

 

I'm sorry but this is where you lose me. I seriously think that it's borderline delusional to hold the belief that random people with zero idea of the inner-workings of a front office can easily step in and do a better job than the majority of the General Managers in charge. There's so much more to that job than just evaluating talent. You have to convince free agents that they want to come to your city. You have to convince GM's, who you clearly think are dumber than you, that they should give you their players and they should evaluate your assets as highly as you do. If you can even get anything done, you have to make marketing sense of all of your moves, so you can sell each of them to upper management and ownership, to get them to believe it's a good deal, something that is impossibly more difficult if you've made a bad move in the past. And you have to do all of it with hundreds of voices of scouts and executives chirping in your ear, and while being pressured by the media to spill your juicy secrets every step of the way, and while being put under a microscope by millions of rabid fans that'll make snap judgements about your adequacy at your job over every move you make.

 

This isn't a fantasy league. It's a billion dollar business.

[GD]

random people with zero idea of the inner-workings of a front office

 

Well, Hurl, I can't imagine you can dispute this point at all. Should probably delete your account and try again.

[Laika]

I'm sorry but this is where you lose me. I seriously think that it's borderline delusional to hold the belief that random people with zero idea of the inner-workings of a front office can easily step in and do a better job than the majority of the General Managers in charge. There's so much more to that job than just evaluating talent. You have to convince free agents that they want to come to your city. You have to convince GM's, who you clearly think are dumber than you, that they should give you their players and they should evaluate your assets as highly as you do. If you can even get anything done, you have to make marketing sense of all of your moves, so you can sell each of them to upper management and ownership, to get them to believe it's a good deal, something that is impossibly more difficult if you've made a bad move in the past. And you have to do all of it with hundreds of voices of scouts and executives chirping in your ear, and while being pressured by the media to spill your juicy secrets every step of the way, and while being put under a microscope by millions of rabid fans that'll make snap judgements about your adequacy at your job over every move you make.

 

This isn't a fantasy league. It's a billion dollar business.

 

Agree.

[TwistedLogic]

Well, Hurl, I can't imagine you can dispute this point at all. Should probably delete your account and try again.

 

Cool sarcasm. He said JFaS would make a better GM than AA. With all due respect to JFaS, you seriously think he has the experience and qualifications to hire the right scouts, cross-checkers and executives, to surround himself with a good enough administration that can aid him in making the best moves in baseball? Or I guess he doesn't have to, since he can probably do all of those things himself.

 

For all the credit guys like Jay Sartori and Andrew Tinnish get, guys like AA are the people that hire them.

[Laika]

I would be a great GM if I could just line up a bunch of hypothetical trade scenarios and signings in a spreadsheet and communicate with GMs and agents solely through text messages and emails.

 

Unfortunately, a massive part of making any trades or signings happen is soft skills. To be a great GM you need to be able to build and maintain a rapport with most other front office characters in the league, as well as most player agents and even players themselves. And you have to do this within a necessarily competitive environment where everybody wants to get you smiling before they bend you over the ottoman (tmi?).

 

I could easily propose a Lawrie+ for Donaldson trade to Billy Beane, but would I be able to effectively build a relationship with Beane and communicate with him in a specific recurring way in order to pry the cost controlled MVP candidate human being baseball player out from the grasp of his greedy green hands for as little as possible?

 

No. Not a chance.

[Nox]

I'm sorry but this is where you lose me. I seriously think that it's borderline delusional to hold the belief that random people with zero idea of the inner-workings of a front office can easily step in and do a better job than the majority of the General Managers in charge. There's so much more to that job than just evaluating talent. You have to convince free agents that they want to come to your city. You have to convince GM's, who you clearly think are dumber than you, that they should give you their players and they should evaluate your assets as highly as you do. If you can even get anything done, you have to make marketing sense of all of your moves, so you can sell each of them to upper management and ownership, to get them to believe it's a good deal, something that is impossibly more difficult if you've made a bad move in the past. And you have to do all of it with hundreds of voices of scouts and executives chirping in your ear, and while being pressured by the media to spill your juicy secrets every step of the way, and while being put under a microscope by millions of rabid fans that'll make snap judgements about your adequacy at your job over every move you make.

 

This isn't a fantasy league. It's a billion dollar business.

 

The "billion dollar business with many moving parts etc etc" card is valid enough but:

 

A) Someone with AA's CV (Bach Econ = nothing, mail room, no quant skills, no playing experience) is not qualified to running that organization either

Robust talent valuation -> better decisions -> more wins -> taking less crap from the various sources you referred to

[Spoonovic]

No mentions of the Jays' self-made analytics system called the BEEST?

 

Maybe this fu*king system is finally paying dividends.

[GD]

Cool sarcasm. He said JFaS would make a better GM than AA. With all due respect to JFaS, you seriously think he has the experience and qualifications to hire the right scouts, cross-checkers and executives, to surround himself with a good enough administration that can aid him in making the best moves in baseball? Or I guess he doesn't have to, since he can probably do all of those things himself.

 

For all the credit guys like Jay Sartori and Andrew Tinnish get, guys like AA are the people that hire them.

 

I didn't say anything contrary to the points you made.

[Nox]

No mentions of the Jays' self-made analytics system called the BEEST?

 

Maybe this fu*king system is finally paying dividends.

 

I thought BEEST was the partially self-aware super AI that caused Nick Bolstrom to write his book about terrifying s***.

 

At least that's what resident outsider Shi led us all to believe.

[TheHurl]

I'm sorry but this is where you lose me. I seriously think that it's borderline delusional to hold the belief that random people with zero idea of the inner-workings of a front office can easily step in and do a better job than the majority of the General Managers in charge. There's so much more to that job than just evaluating talent. You have to convince free agents that they want to come to your city. You have to convince GM's, who you clearly think are dumber than you, that they should give you their players and they should evaluate your assets as highly as you do. If you can even get anything done, you have to make marketing sense of all of your moves, so you can sell each of them to upper management and ownership, to get them to believe it's a good deal, something that is impossibly more difficult if you've made a bad move in the past. And you have to do all of it with hundreds of voices of scouts and executives chirping in your ear, and while being pressured by the media to spill your juicy secrets every step of the way, and while being put under a microscope by millions of rabid fans that'll make snap judgements about your adequacy at your job over every move you make.

 

This isn't a fantasy league. It's a billion dollar business.

 

 

And this is different than every other business how? I'd trust smart guys like Nox or NJH to run a business I have as well.

 

Fine let me re-word it. I 100% believe that if Nox was given opportunity to speak to the current Dodgers front office, his opinions would be heard, reviewed, and often pursued. If Nox was given the opportunity to speak to AA he'd be ignored, pushed aside and offered a job paying less than a ticket salesman. Call it bias I just happen to believe this.

 

And you have to do all of it with hundreds of voices of scouts

 

yeah and that's not a problem at all.

 

and while being put under a microscope by millions of rabid fans that'll make snap judgements about your adequacy at your job over every move you make.

 

and this is probably the reason that the Rays don't have millions of rabid fans. I do believe that the Rays could use some baetter marketing people. I'll be first in line to mention that to them if I get a chance when I'm there in May (although right now the only places I am approaching are the GCL Pirates and Bradenton Pirates, who I hope to present a new social media and marketing plan to). If Nox or JFaS are ever given a sports position and need a marketing person because their math nerdiness will get them hate letters, I'm there for them.

[TheHurl]

Y'all could love these Martin/Saunders/Donaldson signings/trades since they are no brainers right now, but when any of them get injured or fall off the face of the earth in production, I must wonder if you'll be criticizing AA for them.

 

I can't speak for everyone but there isn't a projection system that shows them falling off the earth. Which doesn't mean they won't fall off the face of the earth...but there are no key indicators for this. So, even if there is an existing injury in every single one of them that is somehow missed, in no way would I fault this FO for making these moves. They all make sense.

[TheHurl]

Cool sarcasm. He said JFaS would make a better GM than AA.

 

I said they could build a better team. I know it's semantics. I've said that I think AA is PR GM, to a fault actually. AA over the past 3 years IMO, needed to be listening to Analytics people. Would smarter signing of sold the extra 7,000 season tickets that the Mets and Marlins trades did...likely not. AA has done a lot of good things as a GM. Building a baseball team just happens to be his weakest area. Maybe that's changed this year.

[burlingtonbandit]

I would be a great GM if I could just line up a bunch of hypothetical trade scenarios and signings in a spreadsheet and communicate with GMs and agents solely through text messages and emails.

 

Unfortunately, a massive part of making any trades or signings happen is soft skills. To be a great GM you need to be able to build and maintain a rapport with most other front office characters in the league, as well as most player agents and even players themselves. And you have to do this within a necessarily competitive environment where everybody wants to get you smiling before they bend you over the ottoman (tmi?).

 

I could easily propose a Lawrie+ for Donaldson trade to Billy Beane, but would I be able to effectively build a relationship with Beane and communicate with him in a specific recurring way in order to pry the cost controlled MVP candidate human being baseball player out from the grasp of his greedy green hands for as little as possible?

 

No. Not a chance.

 

Exactly. Thats what makes AA a great GM in that sense. He is great at communication as it shows with his ability to sign players to under value contracts as well as get a lot of trades done. What should happen is AA use all his staff including the analytics guys and get opinions of what to do. AA then being the great negotiator he is, can get these trades and signings done even if he isn't the most analytically inclined person.

 

I think that above scenario is exactly what has happened this offseason.

[Laika]

Exactly. Thats what makes AA a great GM in that sense. He is great at communication as it shows with his ability to sign players to under value contracts as well as get a lot of trades done. What should happen is AA use all his staff including the analytics guys and get opinions of what to do. AA then being the great negotiator he is, can get these trades and signings done even if he isn't the most analytically inclined person.

 

I think that above scenario is exactly what has happened this offseason.

 

I'd stop short of calling him obviously great. Sure he's done some great s*** this offseason, and years ago, but where were his smooth talking skills last offseason when he did f*** all?

[nutz003]

At the time the Marlins deal went down, pretty much every single Jays fan, as well as pretty much every baseball analyst thought that the deal was unbelievable for the Jays. Most who now criticize AA for that deal were most definitely praising him when that deal was announced. The same may not be true of the Dickey deal. No one could have predicted Josh Johnson would have played as s***** as he did and would miss that much time, or that all of those injuries would have struck crippling their season. To look back in hindsight and say it turned out to be not what was expected is one thing, but to criticize pulling the trigger on that trade at the time is craziness.

[Spoonovic]

AA deserves credit for bunch of moves he didnt make.

 

For example not signing Josh Johnson or Ubaldo Jiminez last off season. Almost everyone on this board thought that the Padres and O's made two great value signings.

[Nox]

At the time the Marlins deal went down, pretty much every single Jays fan, as well as pretty much every baseball analyst thought that the deal was unbelievable for the Jays. Most who now criticize AA for that deal were most definitely praising him when that deal was announced.

 

Did you read the thread?

 

Delete your account.

[Nox]

AA deserves credit for bunch of moves he didnt make.

 

For example not signing Josh Johnson or Ubaldo Jiminez last off season. Almost everyone on this board thought that the Padres and O's made two great value signings.

 

No.

 

Because by that logic 28 other GMs get that same credit.

[burlingtonbandit]

I'd stop short of calling him obviously great. Sure he's done some great s*** this offseason, and years ago, but where were his smooth talking skills last offseason when he did f*** all?

 

Well we don't know what exactly took place. Kinsler blocked a trade which could of made the team significantly better. Last year's roster management was puzzling to everyone I am sure. I really don't get anything they did.

[burlingtonbandit]

No.

 

Because by that logic 28 other GMs get that same credit.

 

I wouldn't say that. Do small market teams get credit for not signing mega contracts that fail if they weren't even a possibility in the first place?

[nutz003]

And this off season the credit he should get for the move he didn't make may be not signing Melky. I was one who hoped that he would resign him, but seeing the Saunders/Happ deal and the money saved in the difference in Saunders' salary as opposed to what Melky would have got and the difference between it and Happ's opens up a number of other signings to improve the ball club while still getting a good left fielder.

 

I think Wilner said that the difference could look like for the same money:

Melky Cabrera and Jay Happ

or

Michael Saunders, Draft Pick, 2nd Basemen, 2 Relievers and DH

[Nox]

I wouldn't say that. Do small market teams get credit for not signing mega contracts that fail if they weren't even a possibility in the first place?

 

Well sort of (knowing to keep a sustainable budget deserves some organizaitonal kudos).

 

The bigger point was that judging a baseball exec by non-actions is pretty impossible with the information publicly available. For example, how do we know that AA actually offered Jiminez a slightly better deal but he turned it down because he preferred to live in Baltimore (lol)?

[TheHurl]

Hurl - I've seen you kill a man with your bare hands over a debate about regarding Bobby Hurley's douchiness. I cannot vouch for the statement you make.

 

Faux Family is a touchy subject for me, you can't judge me on this incident.

[Captain Adama]

At the time the Marlins deal went down, pretty much every single Jays fan, as well as pretty much every baseball analyst thought that the deal was unbelievable for the Jays. Most who now criticize AA for that deal were most definitely praising him when that deal was announced. The same may not be true of the Dickey deal. No one could have predicted Josh Johnson would have played as s***** as he did and would miss that much time, or that all of those injuries would have struck crippling their season. To look back in hindsight and say it turned out to be not what was expected is one thing, but to criticize pulling the trigger on that trade at the time is craziness.

 

I know that guys like Nox, Boxy, NJH and Hurl all didn't like the Marlins deal at the time. I thought they had a shot, but there were ifs, and that the Jays' situation could become messy, but I still thought AA was a good GM at the time, so eh... Although Dinger and probably queen-BTS were blowing their loads, those shameless pugs.

 

It'd be great if someone could pull up that thread from the old board.

 

f***, there's a lot of hipster-ness in this thread.

[Nox]

 

It'd be great if someone could pull up that thread from the old board.

 

That would require somebody going to the old board.

 

I think Smokey's the only one who's been brave enough to risk the potential interaction with DJBlueJays and Sempai.

[Captain Adama]

That would require somebody going to the old board.

 

I think Smokey's the only one who's been brave enough to risk the potential interaction with DJBlueJays and Sempai.

 

I went there a month ago for the first time in a year just to see what happened over there...I thought the patients from the mental health ward managed to login to the computers.

[TwistedLogic]

The "billion dollar business with many moving parts etc etc" card is valid enough but:

 

A) Someone with AA's CV (Bach Econ = nothing, mail room, no quant skills, no playing experience) is not qualified to running that organization either

Robust talent valuation -> better decisions -> more wins -> taking less crap from the various sources you referred to

 

You're absolutely right that he doesn't have the background to be considered qualified for his position, but that's why he pales in comparison to executives like Zaidi and Friedman. My point is that he wasn't just thrust into the GM role out of high school either; he was working in the office for years and he had an idea of all the factors that play into the job beforehand. He also had a scouting background; as much as we love sabermetrics, the draft is considered one of the most valuable places to recruit talent out of, and there's no reliable way to sabermetrically evaluate high school amateurs. You still need scouts.

 

A lot of the people on these boards would probably alienate their scouts within the first year on the job. NJH made a brilliant point about being able to build relationships, and there's no easy way to do that in an office full of people that make a living off the "eye-test" when you're absolutely positive that you know more than them through advanced analytics.