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How to best extrapolate (project) park factor on offensive performance?


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Posted

Take for example two hitters, one is a slugger (A) and the other has no power (B).

 

Which offensive stat would you multiply park factor by to get an accurate inflated offensive stat in said ballpark?

 

1) Player A would benefit a lot more being in a hitters park than player B, so how would you equate wRC+ or wOBA to the ball park based on the player type?

 

2) With regard to a singular stat like HR I think it would be fair to multiple HR * PF to get accurate projection of HR in said ball park, yes?

 

Thoughts?

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Pretty sure just using RC or RC+ without park adjustments would be what you're looking for with 1 but I could be completely misunderstanding.
Posted
Pretty sure just using RC or RC+ without park adjustments would be what you're looking for with 1 but I could be completely misunderstanding.

 

I'm not sure because a player who doesn't hit for power wouldn't really be affected much by PF. I just don't know how to account for this, on a player to player basis.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
I'm not sure because a player who doesn't hit for power wouldn't really be affected much by PF. I just don't know how to account for this, on a player to player basis.

 

Sure they would be. TB is part of the RC equation. HRs are a big part of TB. And doubles can be too, depending on dimension. Triples even. And just offense-heavy environments (COL, probably ARZ).

Posted
Sure they would be. TB is part of the RC equation. HRs are a big part of TB. And doubles can be too, depending on dimension. Triples even. And just offense-heavy environments (COL, probably ARZ).

 

Let's just say for the purpose of example:

 

Hitter A) Literally only hits singles

Hitter B) Literally only hits home runs

 

Park factor will have almost no impact on hitter A. So multiplying PF * wRC+ is just wrong (you're not going to hit more singles in a hitter-friendly park). While multiplying PF * wRC+ for Hitter B makes sense. This is an extreme example and would be similar to someone like Ben Revere and Adam Dunn.

 

Ben Revere at Coors Field is 80[wRC]+ * 1.3[PF] = 104[wRC+]..... we both know it would be closer to 80 wRC+, so this is wrong.

 

Further more, Adam Dunn at Coors field: 124[wRC+] * 1.3PF = 161[wRC+]... it's more accurate.

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