Formula to predict a players offensive performance in a single game

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Guys I think Hurl is getting ready to take out the ban hammer

[TheHurl]

Guys I think Hurl is getting ready to take out the ban hammer

 

nah, I like the guy.

[NorthOf49]

You could also take into account wind, temperature, game time and date/month of the year. Pitch f/x has that stuff so you could easily incorporate it. Also, the home plate umpire.

[GD]

I'd say I understand it quite well ... more than the various champions of it who say things like "what's the difference between r and r-squared"

 

In all fairness, I'm young enough to be your son most likely and most of my classmates haven't started quadratics yet and are struggling on algebra, lol

[Orgfiller]

In all fairness, I'm young enough to be your son most likely and most of my classmates haven't started quadratics yet and are struggling on algebra, lol

 

Obviously TL;DR but how does one person manage to post paragraphs and paragraphs of absolute ******** over and over? I thought eventually it would run out but he just keeps going strong. It's funny because there's 2 (most likely one person) people that meet the same criteria from the old board and they get permanbanned as soon as they login.

[GD]

Obviously TL;DR but how does one person manage to post paragraphs and paragraphs of absolute ******** over and over? I thought eventually it would run out but he just keeps going strong. It's funny because there's 2 (most likely one person) people that meet the same criteria from the old board and they get permanbanned as soon as they login.

 

Shut up you nerdy kid. Lol geek just watch the game you 7 year old.

 

/AnemicRacist

[Comx]

Wanted to say thanks for all the tips and suggestions. Now that I've had a few days to think about it I realized my initial "formula" was pretty rudimentary... though certainly better than using nothing. So with that said I'll try to use as much information as possible.

 

The one thing that I have found truly hard to quantify is the "hot and cold" factor... players who have been "hot" for a short period of games seem to be a better bet... so I'm thinking of creating some kind of rating system for that.

[GD]

You're actually better of disregarding this. Read the chapter titled "When you're hot, you're hot". You'll find it interesting.

 

http://books.google.ca/books?id=FrUYdXKZFZwC&pg=PA58&lpg=PA58&dq=the+book+streaks&source=bl&ots=Jc7z6z5yJh&sig=R7xBQbyemZxlZgGnF5jNojyJBnU&hl=en&sa=X&ei=CuFqU_GLCYy0yAT9p4KIAw&ved=0CEsQ6AEwBA#v=snippet&q=streak&f=false

 

Literally no book stores have this and there aren't e-books on it. Ughhhh.

[Abomination]

Literally no book stores have this and there aren't e-books on it. Ughhhh.

 

Amazon.com has it available

[GD]

Amazon.com has it available

 

I know but I don't ever order anything from Amazon for some reason lol it's in my shopping cart

[Anemic0ffense]

Shut up you nerdy kid. Lol geek just watch the game you 7 year old.

 

/AnemicRacist

 

AnemicRacist hahaha. That's a great one! Might change my name to that. That'll definitely draw more people to the boards if they see someone with that name, right? Only trying to help board promotion here!

 

For the record, that name isn't funny. Good try though. GD... what's that stand for? Actually I'll leave it at that...

[Comx]

Can someone sanity check this logic?

 

If a players home park is a hitters park and has a park factor of 130 then his stats will be inflated and his ZIPS projections will be based on those inflated numbers too. So when calculating this players offense at home by park factor it should be 1/2 of 130 (115)... because his numbers are already "half" inflated by playing in his home park half the time; assuming the rest of the time he plays in an average hitting park (100).

 

Further more, if a players home ball park has a park factor of 80 and now he's playing in an away park with a park factor of 130 then you should actually calculate his offense by using a park factor of 130+10 (140); because he plays in a park of 80 and the rest of the time it's 100.... (80 + 100)/2 = 90; since his ZIPS projections would be deflated from playing in a pitchers park "half" the time.

 

Marking things more complicated would be a player that has recently changed teams. I doubt his ZIPS account for the new park factor.