Anyone else upset that we gave Jesse Chavez away for cash?

[jaysblue]

Most of the old board was happy when he lost his rotation spot and I still maintain to this day that most of the board was wrong. Litterally all he did wrong was give up too many homeruns in a small sample size well below what was needed to consider it stabilized while the few stats that were significant at that point were all positive. It was by any objective measure a mistake regardless of majority opininion on the board. In fact I think part of the reason people were so harsh on Chavez is because Greenwood was defending him. No one took his opinion serioulsy even after Nox make the statistical argument that clearly supported his position.

 

It's not like he's 22 or 23 - he was 28 when the Jays let him go and spent most of his career as a reliever. He has never had success as a starter in the minors and he's only made 24 career starts in the minors as well. He's been mostly a reliever all throughout his career. I'm not jumping on the bandwagon after he's only made 3 starts. I need to see more than that to believe he is for real. As for the Jays letting go of him, what did Chavez show before that warranted him staying around? Not much. So I'm not upset that the Jays didn't keep Chavez.

[Nox]

Chavez is pretty decent guys.

[Nox]

Greenwood's 3 WAR number is probably high but on a per inning basis I think he's at least a league average starter.

[Caper]

Guy had a horrid MLB track record and wasn't that young.

 

Nobody saw this coming. Clearly unsustainable though.

 

http://www.forums.mlb.com/n/pfx/forum.aspx?sr=y&msg=83435.1&nav=messages&webtag=ml-bluejays

 

When Greenwood speaks people should listen. He liked Gomes... He liked Chavez.... Greenwood should be a scout.

[GD]

He was always decent, but needed a bit of breathing room to relax.

He's gotten some luck so far, and won't continue to perform at this rate, but I think he will likely to continue to perform at a #4 starter.

 

I'm willing to bet anyone $20 that he finishes with 3 fWAR or greater.

 

Avatar bet? One month? DL stint longer than 30 days voids the bet?

[Caper]

Chavez always looked a bit scared out there.... like he was just expecting bad s*** to happen.

[AdamGreenwood]

He was scared. He knew that one bad inning meant he went back to AAA, and wouldn't be able to support his family back in....uh....California.

Every fringe player and pitcher felt the same. That's not the way you give players confidence.

 

Instead, you make a decision before you call them up and commit to them for a certain time period, regardless of their performance.

[jaysblue]

He was scared. He knew that one bad inning meant he went back to AAA, and wouldn't be able to support his family back in....uh....California.

Every fringe player and pitcher felt the same. That's not the way you give player's confidence.

 

Instead, you make a decision before you call them up and commit to them for a certain time period, regardless of their performance.

 

Have you followed Jesse Chavez since he was drafted?

[jaysblue]

Chavez is pretty decent guys.

 

I think he can be decent. Don't expect him to sustain this success as a starter however. His career WAR is still -0.2, so he really hasn't displayed success over an extended period of time at the MLB level, and was hardly used as a starter in the minors. I think he can go on and have a similar season like Chad Gaudin did in 2007 (1.9 WAR) over a full season. Definitely possible if he's able to hold up for 200 innings.

 

I just don't see how people all of a sudden have projected him to be such a great starter when he doesn't have a long history of being a starter in both the majors and the minors. Also, it's not like he's been lights out in the minors anyways and he's already 30-years-old. It's a nice story to see no doubt, though there is no way anybody saw this start coming and it's pretty unlikely this continues.

[TheHurl]

Don't get me wrong I'm not going to pretend that I think the Jays should have Chavez and I stated it (I didn't say that, I probably barely cared). But when you look at the numbers in Vegas, it's a 4.25-1 K/BB ratio. I realize that age to league level is different but he put up better numbers in the PCL in 2012 than guys like Shelby Miller, Wily Peralta, Oberholtzer, Petit, Martin Perez, and Tyson Ross. They kept the following pitchers on the 40 when they got rid of Chavez (none of them had options either):

 

Luis Perez

Brad Lincoln

Chad Beck

Juan Abreu

Scott Richmond

 

Not to mention they traded for JA Happ

[jaysblue]

Speaking of Jesse Chavez...should I claim him in my 30-team dynasty league for 500K haha? Shocked nobody has yet. Thing is, I'd have to drop Brett Cecil and Franklin Morales to clear salary.

[Nox]

I think he can be decent. Don't expect him to sustain this success as a starter however. His career WAR is still -0.2, so he really hasn't displayed success over an extended period of time at the MLB level, and was hardly used as a starter in the minors. I think he can go on and have a similar season like Chad Gaudin did in 2007 (1.9 WAR) over a full season. Definitely possible if he's able to hold up for 200 innings.

 

I just don't see how people all of a sudden have projected him to be such a great starter when he doesn't have a long history of being a starter in both the majors and the minors. Also, it's not like he's been lights out in the minors anyways and he's already 30-years-old. It's a nice story to see no doubt, though there is no way anybody saw this start coming and it's pretty unlikely this continues.

 

Yah, he could be a shitbag still and I'm being fooled. Certainly possible.

 

But his last 20+ minor league starts have been solid and he's added new pitches to his repertoire since his early MLB days. He's got slightly plus velo for a starter and he's missing enough bats to make you think he's pretty ok. Steamer has him at a 3.87 FIP rest of season (with 15 starts). Even after park effects, that's a nice starter.

 

Numbers aside, I watched that last start of his against the Angels and he did look pretty filthy. Fastball firm enough with life, seconary pitches moving everywhere and a really free and easy motion. I know that's just one start and all but I feel like if a scout were to see that game with no knowledge of Jesse Chavez reports or numbers they would say he's at least a league avg starter.

[KingKat]

As for the Jays letting go of him, what did Chavez show before that warranted him staying around? Not much.

 

In 2012 in Vegas, he put up ratios of 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 for a ratio of 4.30 K/BB. That is an excellent minor league season but after a measly 21 innings in the Show, they decided he wasn't good enough even though his ratios were still solid other than his homerun rate. You can try to shrug it off all you want but that was just plain dumb.

[GD]

Speaking of Jesse Chavez...should I claim him in my 30-team dynasty league for 500K haha? Shocked nobody has yet. Thing is, I'd have to drop Brett Cecil and Franklin Morales to clear salary.

 

Isn't Morales kind of a shitbag?

[jaysblue]

Isn't Morales kind of a shitbag?

 

I have no problem with dropping Morales, though I'd only free up 125K so I'd need to drop Cecil as well to save the rest since its a 100M cap.

[Boxcar]

I have no problem with dropping Morales, though I'd only free up 125K so I'd need to drop Cecil as well to save the rest since its a 100M cap.

 

I don't think Cecil is all that valuable either. In a 30 teamer I imagine decent pitching is hard to come by and I wouldn't let Brett Cecil deter me from taking a chance on a guy getting good results with decent peripherals. Just my opinion.

[jaysblue]

Yah, he could be a shitbag still and I'm being fooled. Certainly possible.

 

But his last 20+ minor league starts have been solid and he's added new pitches to his repertoire since his early MLB days. He's got slightly plus velo for a starter and he's missing enough bats to make you think he's pretty ok. Steamer has him at a 3.87 FIP rest of season (with 15 starts). Even after park effects, that's a nice starter.

 

Numbers aside, I watched that last start of his against the Angels and he did look pretty filthy. Fastball firm enough with life, seconary pitches moving everywhere and a really free and easy motion. I know that's just one start and all but I feel like if a scout were to see that game with no knowledge of Jesse Chavez reports or numbers they would say he's at least a league avg starter.

 

His control as a starter in Vegas and so far this season has been impeccable. I definitely have soft spots for pitchers who are always around the plate. Spanky even donated a jersey to me of one haha. Not sure he'll maintain that 1.9 BB/9 rate, though he should still be solid in that department limiting free passes.

 

I caught some of his last start, flipping back and forth between games on MLB TV, and he did look good from what I saw. Has a nice over-the-top hook and his fastball I think was in the low-90's. It'll be interesting to see if he could hold up as a starter, since he's never tossed a lot of innings before in a single season. His 130.2 IP in 2012 was the most he's thrown in a season and last time he topped the 100 inning mark was in 2004.

 

I'll definitely circle his next start on my calendar and watch it on MLB TV - he might be a nice guy to follow in 2014. If he puts together a 2 WAR season, that definitely valuable no doubt. I think Gaudin started off hot in 2007 and then he tired down the stretch - I think expecting a similar 2 WAR season is reasonable from Chavez if he makes 30 starts. And if his control and K rates hold up, he could be better which wouldn't shock me. At the same time, he can s*** the bed in May and everyone forgets the epic tale of Jesse Chavez.

[jaysblue]

I don't think Cecil is all that valuable either. In a 30 teamer I imagine decent pitching is hard to come by and I wouldn't let Brett Cecil deter me from taking a chance on a guy getting good results with decent peripherals. Just my opinion.

 

I'm thinking of doing it and hopping on the Jesse Chavez bandwagon. Cecil is tough to drop for nothing but I could always trade for a middle reliever.

[GD]

I'm thinking of doing it and hopping on the Jesse Chavez bandwagon. Cecil is tough to drop for nothing but I could always trade for a middle reliever.

 

What players are OTB/FA?

[jaysblue]

What players are OTB/FA?

 

Aaron Harang was a FA, though people have been bidding on him. I just claim Chavez for 500K since he's not a FA and not on anyone's MLB/minor league roster.

[GeorgiaPeach]

His control as a starter in Vegas and so far this season has been impeccable. I definitely have soft spots for pitchers who are always around the plate. Spanky even donated a jersey to me of one haha. Not sure he'll maintain that 1.9 BB/9 rate, though he should still be solid in that department limiting free passes.

 

I caught some of his last start, flipping back and forth between games on MLB TV, and he did look good from what I saw. Has a nice over-the-top hook and his fastball I think was in the low-90's. It'll be interesting to see if he could hold up as a starter, since he's never tossed a lot of innings before in a single season. His 130.2 IP in 2012 was the most he's thrown in a season and last time he topped the 100 inning mark was in 2004.

 

I'll definitely circle his next start on my calendar and watch it on MLB TV - he might be a nice guy to follow in 2014. If he puts together a 2 WAR season, that definitely valuable no doubt. I think Gaudin started off hot in 2007 and then he tired down the stretch - I think expecting a similar 2 WAR season is reasonable from Chavez if he makes 30 starts. And if his control and K rates hold up, he could be better which wouldn't shock me. At the same time, he can s*** the bed in May and everyone forgets the epic tale of Jesse Chavez.

 

Go back and watch some of his starts that are archived on MLB.TV

[GeorgiaPeach]

I'm thinking of doing it and hopping on the Jesse Chavez bandwagon. Cecil is tough to drop for nothing but I could always trade for a middle reliever.

 

It's not really a drop for nothing. You're paying the penalty and most teams are ultra tight to the cap.

[jaysblue]

In 2012 in Vegas, he put up ratios of 1.9 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 for a ratio of 4.30 K/BB. That is an excellent minor league season but after a measly 21 innings in the Show, they decided he wasn't good enough even though his ratios were still solid other than his homerun rate. You can try to shrug it off all you want but that was just plain dumb.

 

I'm sure if Chavez had a 9 something ERA after his first three starts, this conversation/thread wouldn't be happening. There was nothing that suggested Chavez was going to be successful as a MLB starter. If Oakland had Griffin and Parker, Chavez would be in the pen right now. Some doors opened for him and he's getting an opportunity, which is great for him! And so far, its paying off. For how long though? Not sure. It's only 3 starts, and I'm not getting tricked into stats this early in the season after 14 games into a 162 game season. If his arm could hold up over a full season of a starters workload, he can be a decent I think as I've stated previously.

 

I'm definitely rooting for the guy, though to think you saw this start coming is pretty egotistic. It was not "plain dumb" for the Jays to give up a 28-year-old swingman who has been below replacement level for his entire MLB career. Unless you have a crystal ball that could predict the breakouts of 28-30 year old veterans like Jose Bautista etc, then kudos to you.

[jaysblue]

It's not really a drop for nothing. You're paying the penalty and most teams are ultra tight to the cap.

 

Traded Cecil to the Cubs. Paying some of his salary, but saved more more than just outright dropping him.

[KingKat]

There was nothing that suggested Chavez was going to be successful as a MLB starter.

 

Nothing except his performance as a Jay in 2012. Why you continue to ignore this is beyond me.

 

If Oakland had Griffin and Parker, Chavez would be in the pen right now.

 

That much is true. No one is saying Chavez should have been a lock for anyone's rotation but not giving him a longer look in 2012 was just plain stupid. I really don't see how you could argue otherwise. Even if he sucked now, that wouldn't change the facts of 2012.

 

 

I'm definitely rooting for the guy, though to think you saw this start coming is pretty egotistic.

 

I never said that. I haven't made a single prediction about Chavez then or now.

 

It was not "plain dumb" for the Jays to give up a 28-year-old swingman who has been below replacement level for his entire MLB career. Unless you have a crystal ball that could predict the breakouts of 28-30 year old veterans like Jose Bautista etc, then kudos to you.

 

Geez, you really like to miss the point. No one can predict breakouts. This has nothing to do with what Chavez is doing now other than it's a bit of poetic justice (which may or may not continue thoughout the season). This has everything to do with Chavez's current success reminding us of how dumb it was to cut his audition so short when all he had going against him is a high homerun rate. You're the one who keep trying to re-write history and pretend like 2012 never happened. Just because most of the posters on the board didn't bother to look up his rate stats before deciding he wasn't any good back in 2012 doesn't mean the evidence to the contrary wasn't plainly there. Apparently, the Jays chose to ignore that and we're supposed to just be fine with it and say easy come, easy go.

[jaysblue]

Nothing except his performance as a Jay in 2012. Why you continue to ignore this is beyond me.

 

17 starts in 2012 down in the minors as a 28-year-old. I don't ignore that, but you have to factor what he was before that. Anyone can have a stretch of 15 or so starts and look great. He was 28 and was a full time reliever previously. No team was going to give him a full time rotation gig in 2013. Even Oakland didn't. He was just used as a mop-up/long man in the A's BP.

 

That much is true. No one is saying Chavez should have been a lock for anyone's rotation but not giving him a longer look in 2012 was just plain stupid. I really don't see how you could argue otherwise. Even if he sucked now, that wouldn't change the facts of 2012.

 

So should the organization give every 28-year-old fringe replacement level player that comes around a longer look?

 

What makes Chavez different from Esmil Rogers for example? Look at Rogers' rate stats from his time in the BP with Cleveland. Rogers gets so much hate around here, but couldn't we say Rogers turned the corner in 2012? Rogers was given an opportunity in the rotation due to injuries and never panned out. Sometimes you get lucky with late 20-year-old vets, sometimes you don't.

 

I never said that. I haven't made a single prediction about Chavez then or now.

 

If Chavez wasn't lights out for his first 3 starts, this thread wouldn't have existed.

 

Geez, you really like to miss the point. No one can predict breakouts. This has nothing to do with what Chavez is doing now other than it's a bit of poetic justice (which may or may not continue thoughout the season). This has everything to do with Chavez's current success reminding us of how dumb it was to cut his audition so short when all he had going against him is a high homerun rate. You're the one who keep trying to re-write history and pretend like 2012 never happened. Just because most of the posters on the board didn't bother to look up his rate stats before deciding he wasn't any good back in 2012 doesn't mean the evidence to the contrary wasn't plainly there. Apparently, the Jays chose to ignore that and we're supposed to just be fine with it and say easy come, easy go.

 

17 starts in the minors doesn't justify an entire career for a 28-year-old veteran. Sorry, but you can't hold onto every 28-30-year-old ballplayer or pitcher who shows success in the minors and give them a long opportunity like 150 games, or 20-25 starts at the MLB level. Sometimes an opportunity arises where those players are put in those situations and they either succeed or disappoint, though no organization should not be guaranteeing everyday AB's or a rotation spot to fringe veterans who displayed some success in the minors.

[AdamGreenwood]

"Anyone can have a stretch of 15 or so starts and look great."

 

LOL. Just pitching lucky for 15 or so starts.

[43211234]

It's unfortunate but, to use a forum favourite, it wasn't egregious roster management. The dude had 2 career starts coming into this season.

[jaysblue]

"Anyone can have a stretch of 15 or so starts and look great."

 

LOL. Just pitching lucky for 15 or so starts.

 

Carlos Villanueva was pretty solid for a 12-13 start stretch in 2012 until he had two huge blowups at the end of the September that season. Does that make Carlos Villaneuva a great starter? And this was in the Majors, not Triple A mind you.

[TheHurl]

He asked for a release, I'm sure.

 

I'm much more of a cold heartless type i guess. I meant drop his ass the first off-season. I have zero time for rehabbing 27 year old relievers who aren't special late inning guys. I would have paid for the TJS and when October 2012 came around I would have shook his hand and said "come see us when you are better, maybe we'll throw you a minor league deal".