How Good Will the Orioles Be?

[saskjayfan]

I think we differ on our interpretations of 'well articulated'.

 

 

well...I completely agree with John Havok. The Jays and the orioles and the entire AL east is very competitive. The difference will be health and a couple upside surprises. Last year the sox got great performances out of buchholtz, lackey, carp, uehara, salty, lester...and the list goes on...you get the point.

 

The Jays scored 712 runs which was 9th in the MLB. They did that with the following:

 

Reyes 93 games

Melky 88 games(games he did so were done with a tumor on his spine)

Bautista 118 games

Rasmus 118 games

Lawrie 107 games

EE 142 games

 

That's 300 man games lost or almost 2 full seasons out of 6 of your core players.

 

They got league worst production out of the catcher with JPA who posted a .592 OPS and sub .600 OPS production out of their 2nd basemen where izzy and boni provided terrible defense to go along with it.

 

The pitching gave up 685 earned runs and they allowed an additional 71 unearned runs. Dickey pitched through back spams and I believe his ERA will be a half run less with less pressure and expectations and based on his second half...Buehrle started poorly as well...I expect him to be slightly improved 3.9 ERA plus or minus .2ish.....The Jays lost Johnson, morrow and happ for extended periods and when Johnson and morrow did pitch they were crap partly because they weren't entirely healthy even when they were pitching. The jays had no depth last year to overcome some of these things as Romero fell off a cliff.

 

This year I hope the Jays remain healthy, which will improve the defense. Navarro isn't a defensive wizard, but he will be better than JPA and even if he posts a .700 OPS that will add runs and save runs defensively. Goins will help save some runs defensively even if he adds no runs offensively, which I don't expect him to. Morrow has come into camp stronger and healthy. He's the wild card, but I believe he can be a sub 4 ERA, which would save quite a few runs over last year. In the 4 and 5 spot I think happ can be a 4.4ish ERA type and drabek, hutch, McGowan, stroman are guys who at some point in the season can come in and help save runs.

 

I suspect the defense can shave 30 runs off a terrible season last year and pitching can be 25 runs better....that puts the jays at 700 runs. That's not the best case scenario by any means and 700 runs given up would put them in the bottom half of the league. The offense has a lot of room for growth moving from 712 last year to 770 runs or more. That 70 run positive difference will put them in September right in the mix. I'm not saying they are favourites to win the AL east. I'm saying they will be in the hunt for the last playoff position come September.

 

Feel free to disagree with me or tell me where I am wildly off base.

[ElNik2013]

I'm not saying they are favourites to win the AL east. I'm saying they will be in the hunt for the last playoff position come September.

 

 

 

As much as people may disagree, I think ultimately, the franchise decision-makers would be thrilled with a 2nd WC race. People assume that ownership and its representative are interested in having the most efficiently-run organization, but I happen to think they'd be happy with your scenario.

[Smokey]

Feel free to disagree with me or tell me where I am wildly off base.

 

First of all, you're pulling unsubstantiated numbers straight out of your ass. Secondly, you're completely ignoring the importance of positional depth. You can "hope" all you like that the team stays healthy but the reality is that in a 162 game season you will have to deal with injuries. What's the contingency plan in case Lawrie or Reyes go down again? Oh that's right, there isn't one.

[saskjayfan]

First of all, you're pulling unsubstantiated numbers straight out of your ass. Secondly, you're completely ignoring the importance of positional depth. You can "hope" all you like that the team stays healthy but the reality is that in a 162 game season you will have to deal with injuries. What's the contingency plan in case Lawrie or Reyes go down again? Oh that's right, there isn't one.

 

No one is saying everyone is going to stay healthy for 162 games. The games played by the players are not numbers being pulled out of anyone's ass. They are fact. The Jays need the core 6 players to play 130 to 140 games. They didn't come close to that last year. That and you wipe out the 130ish negative war games JPA provided and that's a big improvement. You add have the core 6 playing 135 games, that's 150 extra games using quality production vs replacement level production compared to last year, which add runs and saves runs.....The Jays don't have tons of depth, but there aren't a lot of teams who do have tons of depth and Jays aren't going to spend like the sox, Yankees or dodgers. The area of improvement in the depth is in the pitching which is key, but if the jays have loads of injuries...they're done.

 

The Rays got 160 games out longoria, 157 out of zobrist, 158 out of loney, 140 out of Joyce, 153 out of escobar,139 out of Jennings. I'm not saying the Jays have to stay that healthy..if by some miracle their core players did stay healthy like the Rays the Jays would be right there in the end.

[Smokey]

..if by some miracle their core players did stay healthy like the Rays the Jays would be right there in the end.

 

So you're saying we need a MIRACLE! Gotcha

[Chappy]

Feel free to disagree with me or tell me where I am wildly off base.

 

They Jays will be better than last season, no doubt there, but you are expecting too much. You're scenario expects that all 6 of our key offensive players will be healthy (140+ games) and that more than likely won't happen. Injuries will happen. Dickey and Buehrle will be another year older and it's not unreasonable to think both will further regress, not improve. If an injury happens to Reyes or Lawrie, this team will see Kawasaki and Goins in the infield at the same time, that would be laughable. We have only two SP with a realistic chance at 200 innings and the final 3 combined for about 285 innings last year. Our SP depth is better but if one of Dickey or Buehrle go down this might be the worst rotation in the entire MLB and it's already in the bottom half as is. There is some upside, but let's be realistic, this team isn't contending for anything.

[G-Snarls]

They Jays will be better than last season, no doubt there, but you are expecting too much. You're scenario expects that all 6 of our key offensive players will be healthy (140+ games) and that more than likely won't happen. Injuries will happen. Dickey and Buehrle will be another year older and it's not unreasonable to think both will further regress, not improve. If an injury happens to Reyes or Lawrie, this team will see Kawasaki and Goins in the infield at the same time, that would be laughable. We have only two SP with a realistic chance at 200 innings and the final 3 combined for about 285 innings last year. Our SP depth is better but if one of Dickey or Buehrle go down this might be the worst rotation in the entire MLB and it's already in the bottom half as is. There is some upside, but let's be realistic, this team isn't contending for anything.

 

Yep. We still have no depth at 3B, SS or 1B. If any of Reyes EE Lawrie misses 60+ days it REALLY hurts.

[Chappy]

Yep. We still have no depth at 3B, SS or 1B. If any of Reyes EE Lawrie misses 60+ days it REALLY hurts.

 

Sierra, Kawasaki and Gose. What could go wrong?

[G-Snarls]

Sierra, Kawasaki and Gose. What could go wrong?

 

f*** we had better depth when we had DeRosa and Hech!!

 

Edit - I guess they were never on the team at same time but still...

[Anemic0ffense]

Derp.

 

Explain what was so "Derp." about my comment regarding Morrow, ya dummy...