Ben Nicholoson Smith: Jays in mix for Stephen Drew

[jaysfan2014]

According to Ben Nicholson Smith,

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-blue-jays-in-the-mix-on-infielder-drew/

 

Jays are one of four teams in the mix for Stephen Drew, to play 2B.

[Dylan]

"Other teams in the mix... New York and Boston"

 

What are our odds?

Edited January 28, 2014 by Dylan

[Brenner]

This makes alot of sense if we can also sign 1 or 2 of the SP.

 

I don't think drew is worth the money and loss of pick, but if he is only a 3rd rounder or better yet 4th rounder then it wouldn't be so bad...

 

This off season goes from epic fail to just epic if they sign Jimenez, Santana, and Drew this week.

 

**Edit** Also add Baker to the mix.

[Brenner]

What kind of deal would we give him? 3 yr 24 mil? I would have said 2 yr 16 mil but then why would he decline 1/16 QO for that. I would think he wants atleast 20-25 mil to make declining the QO worthwhile so it would need to be 3 years.

 

Also, why can't we move Reyes to 2b? Does he hate 2b or something? Drew at SS would be worth more to us, maybe 10m/yr. At 2nd he is less valuable, maybe 8/yr.

[jaysfan2014]

Boston wants that draft pick and wants Bogaerts playing every day. Don't bet on Boston resigning him. Yankees have already said they're not spending anymore money on luxuries after Tanaka this offseason, and the Mets are cheaping out.

[Laika]

Didn't even realize that Drew had a .337 wOBA last year.

 

I kind of thought he slapped it around a bit and just fielded his way to a good year.

 

Still don't really like the way his K rate has trended, but since the ISO went up with it, it's hard to complain.

 

His ZiPS in Boston is: .239/.312/.393

Steamer: .232/.314/.378

 

These are both probably low. They are being sandbagged by the data from his time in the offensive purgatory of catastrophic injury recovery.

 

Massive upgrade at 2B in any event.

 

I tend to agree with the above poster who said, "This makes alot of sense if we can also sign [ubaldo]. I don't think Drew is worth the money and loss of pick, but if he is only a 3rd rounder ... then it wouldn't be so bad...".

[Laika]

Oliver thinks he's worth ~ 39M over 3 years in surplus. Steamer is higher than that and I'd like to see ZiPS.

 

Steamer would be around 44M over 3 years.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2014-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

[Brenner]

Oliver thinks he's worth ~ 39M over 3 years in surplus. Steamer is higher than that and I'd like to see ZiPS.

 

Steamer would be around 44M over 3 years.

 

But is that at SS or 2b?

[NorthOf49]

Jon Heyman is actually the source of this rumour. BNS was just passing it along.

 

Drew's getting a little overrated. He's an okay stopgap but isn't more than that... I'd expect 5 WAR over the next three years.

[BabbaGanoush]

Wow just the second piece of good news all off season. It would be fantastic if they sign him.

[Convo]

Why do we want Drew?...... for the inevitable Reyes injury?

[Dylan]

Reyes, Melky, Bautista, Edwin, Lind, Lawrie, Rasmus, Drew, Navarro

 

Looks much more appealing

[Laika]

Jon Heyman is actually the source of this rumour. BNS was just passing it along.

 

Drew's getting a little overrated. He's an okay stopgap but isn't more than that... I'd expect 5 WAR over the next three years.

 

If he's getting signed as a 2B, it's best to compare him to Infante.

 

4 yrs/$30.25M for Omar. Is Drew cheaper? Is he better or worse?

 

WAR/150G = 2.15 for Drew

= 1.76 for Omar

 

Omar older by 2 years; can't play SS.

 

Omar's production has been heavily recent. Drews is more sporadic through his career.

[Laika]

Why do we want Drew?...... for the inevitable Reyes injury?

 

That might be part of it, lol. And justifiably so.

[BabbaGanoush]

Why do we want Drew?...... for the inevitable Reyes injury?

 

For second base. Massive upgrade over Goins,Izzy

[Dylan]

Baker, Drew and Ubaldo.. get it done AA.. I wish.

[Brenner]

Apparently we are also in on Morales if we can trade Lind? Would be a good signing if we can unload Lind for some prospects (that could then be used in a trade for a SP or 2B).

 

Looks like we will have only 2 picks in the draft, both in the top 10 lol

[Laika]

Signing Drew is a likely 2 WAR boost, while signing Ubaldo or Santana is definitely less than that.

 

"Turning to the mound, Heyman said that Ubaldo Jimenez may now be willing to drop his salary demands and could ultimately land in the three-year, $39MM range."

 

How about Drew and Ubaldo for under ~$80M total?

[eastcoastjaysfan]

"Turning to the mound, Heyman said that Ubaldo Jimenez may now be willing to drop his salary demands and could ultimately land in the three-year, $39MM range."

 

How about Drew and Ubaldo for under ~$80M total?

 

Those two moves, along with Navarro/Arencibia, would give us a fairly successful offseason. Upgrade at 3 important positions and don't trade away any young pieces.

 

Let's get it done.

[BabbaGanoush]

It would be a lovely off season if we could get Ubaldo and Drew. Probably around 40 for Baldo and 30 for Drew and another 8 for Navvarro.

 

The best thing would be, no contract would be a longer than 3 years, and we would get much better by not trading any depth pieces at all.

[Sorrow]

It would be nice to sign Drew for 2B, both Jimenez and Santana as well as Baker. If you're going to contend, and go all in put some money into it. Hit $180M with front loaded contracts.

[Laika]

NJH, regressed platoon splits of Drew please.

 

He actually has quite a big regressed platoon split.

 

Demonstrated split = 13.95%

Regressed = 11.37%

 

(league average for LHB is 8.6%)

 

So that's .282/.317 around a .307 wOBA projection.

.304/341 around his career wOBA.

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

Those two moves, along with Navarro/Arencibia, would give us a fairly successful offseason. Upgrade at 3 important positions and don't trade away any young pieces.

 

Let's get it done.

 

It would be hilarious if the Jays contended this year after being written off in a million different ways, after doing the reverse last year. This being baseball, it's not as big a long shot as it may seem. Add Jiminez or Santana and they have a realistic shot to improve without needing massive upside surprises from the likes of Morrow, Stroman, Hutch, Rogers, and/or Happ.

 

AL East to me seems somewhat weaker. Orioles are likely dropping back due to their budget, Yankees like the Jays have a lot of question marks. Red Sox have kind of rested on their laurels, which may be good enough we'll see. Rays are hard to peg, lots of pitching but if the sophomore jinx hits one player their offence might be pretty mediocre. AL West is getting stronger so maybe AL East won't be as much a dynamo as it appears. This is all good for the Jays to at least try to contend.

 

I think they need an overpay on a free agent pitcher though to have a realistic shot because they passed on too many offensive upgrades.

[BabbaGanoush]

 

I think they need an overpay on a free agent pitcher though to have a realistic shot because they passed on too many offensive upgrades.

 

At this point with all the reports on the dropping prices for Santana and Baldo, overpaying might just be giving them 50 million instead of the 40. Even at 50, its a pretty decent deal. They probably give you like 8 war over 4 years, and thats more than enough to make it worth it.

[Anemic0ffense]

Drew makes a lot of sense for us. When Reyes inevitably goes down, we have our SS, and THEN we can toy around with all those other guys at 2nd. I just didn't like the idea of going into the season with any of them as starters. And if Ubaldo is willing to drop his price, I'd be all over that too.

[Laika]

So Steamer splits .327 vs R and .293 vs L assuming Steamer assumes facing the same handiness split as career

 

No, I have his .307 Steamer splitting .282 vs vs. LHP and .317 vs. RHP assuming that Steamer uses the same PA ratio as his career.

[Laika]

What do you use for %time against R and %time against L?

 

Just career ratio. I plop their platoon skill around projected wOBA using the ratio of their career PA vs. LHP.

[Boxcar]

According to Ben Nicholson Smith,

 

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-blue-jays-in-the-mix-on-infielder-drew/

 

Jays are one of four teams in the mix for Stephen Drew, to play 2B.

 

I would find it hilarious to have a potential GG SS playing second because of Jose Reyes's ego.

 

None the less, he'd obviously be a 2-3 win upgrade on Goins or whoever the f*** is currently slotted to play 2B.

[Boxcar]

Less than you would think though? This team is already poised to slaughter RHPing and really doesn't need another sub .600 OPS regular in the lineup vs LHPing.For that reason I hope they pass.

 

For your sake, I really hope you are 60+.

[Boxcar]

Fixed for ya.

 

What would I ever do without you.