Waiting the market out

[GD]

The difference between him and Buehrle isn't that significant and he'll cost a fraction of what MB makes.

 

That's because the Buehrle contract is bad, not because an Arroyo contract will be good.

 

Rogers and Redmond are superior options already on payroll.

[LunchBox]

I see him as being a cut above the likes of Rogers, Happ and probably Redmond, none of which really merit a rotation spot.

[LunchBox]

After some consideration, I can certainly appreciate the point the two of you are making. In a lot of ways Arroyo would just exacerbate an existing issue, with 7ish guys without established value competing for essentially 2.5 rotation spots. What a s***** situation for an organization to put themselves in. Jimenez 4/64 is essentially the only attractive option to improve the rotation of an allegedly contending team. Anything else and they might as well try and extract some value from the glut of potentially league average pitchers (Stroman and possibly Hutch excluded) they've assembled.

[GD]

I might even rather Jenkins. Dunno.

 

Wow. I had forgotten he existed, in all honesty.

[LunchBox]

Wow. I had forgotten he existed, in all honesty.

 

That's understandable, I'm working out a depth chart for the smorgasbord they're calling a rotation and he's like the 10th starter.

[GD]

I'm really interested in seeing these projections. Namely, because I love the work JFaS has been doing, but some of his projections (Buehrle, Jenkins, Ubaldo) strike me as varying from the conventional wisdom and very believable.

[connorp]

Monday morning likely! Maybe earlier.

 

So what about Jiminez projects him bad in your books. Is it just the velo drop? Genuniely curious as i respect your work

[Cooler Heads Prevail]

AA needs to do something to help this rotation.

 

We finished last place with a terrible record and terrible pitching. We have already lost Johnson, but I'm not sure if that's addition by subtraction.

 

Do we really expect to compete in this division depending on guys like Drabek, Stroman and Hutchison?

 

Two of those guys cannot pitch the whole season and one of them is a duck. AA needs to be making a move on Tanaka or a +200 IP starter or else we'll be seeing the same results this coming season.

 

This is around the 30th post I've seen that presumes that starting pitching can be accurately forecast based on the previous years staff. In fact, even as recently as 2012 the Jays had one of the stronger starting staffs on a short run before the injuries hit big time. Other teams like Cleveland pre-2013 had awful looking staffs yet they had fairly good years. Starting pitching CANNOT be forecast, its subject to huge variance year to year. The only exception might be a team that is stacked to the gills with quality strong starters ( say 4+ ), and hence they can weather one major dropoff or injury.

 

So my point is we are likely better then people think but maybe not strong enough to contend unless we add one piece OR get extremely lucky. By getting extremely lucky I mean something like Morrow has a good season and Stroman ( or Hutch ) makes the team out of spring training and pitches adequately all year.

 

I would bet a large sum the Jays starting pitching is better this year then last. Losing Johnson IS addition by subtraction. Remember, we are losing Johnson as he was in 2013, how he does in 2014 is irrelevant. Anything Morrow or Stroman do is all gravy. Dickey is more likely to be better in 2014 then worse, and I can't see him doing much worse then matching 2013 myself. Rogers and Happ are far better then some of the guys we gave emergency starts to last year. On the downside ( compared to 2013 Jays ), I'd say only Buehrle might drop off, but the stats say he hasn't yet so at what point age matters is anyone's guess.

 

So as I said, this is an area that cannot be predicted, but so many reasons exist already for them to be better then 2013. Just a bounce back to the norm in terms of ability and injury luck will make them better. And if they add one solid inning eater pitcher ( eg Tanaka, Santana ), its a good staff in my opinion. That may fly in the face of many on here that think because we were bad in 2013 we will again be bad in 2014. I'm comfortable with that, we have the talent to be a .500 team even if we add no one and none of the "maybe" pitchers work out.

[Brenner]

This is exactly right IMO. If Jimenez is deemed too expensive, than I maintain Arroyo is the best alternative as he reduces reliance on Morrow, Stroman/Hutch to throw more than 150 innings. I don't believe this team even got 900 IP from their starters last season, suggesting that they need to acquire quality more so than innings is not correct.

 

A minor caveat however, teams building their rotation on reliability should probably be addressing glaring holes in their offense, particularly at 2B...

 

I disagree completely. Look we have 2 200 IP starters, most rotations are jealous of that reliability. We have plenty of guys that can fill out a starting rotation between Happ, Redmond, and Rogers. Add in Stroman, Hutchinson, and Drabek which were not options last year and we have plenty of depth. Arroyo is nothing but a replacement level player in my opinion, we need to add wins.

 

Compared to last year I would hope Dickey adds 1 win, MB stays the same, Morrow adds 2 wins, and we need another starter to add 2-3 wins above what we can currently expect from what we have. On the offensive side I'd hope for 1 win from Catcher, 1 from 2b (just because they can't be as bad), 1 win from Lawrie, 1 win from healthy Reyes, 1 from Melky being better. That's about 10-11 wins and enough to put us in contention. Beyond that it will be down to luck and statistical variances. Adding 2-3 wins at 2b would have be nice but doesn't seem to be in the cards.

[jays4life19]

I disagree completely. Look we have 2 200 IP starters, most rotations are jealous of that reliability. We have plenty of guys that can fill out a starting rotation between Happ, Redmond, and Rogers. Add in Stroman, Hutchinson, and Drabek which were not options last year and we have plenty of depth. Arroyo is nothing but a replacement level player in my opinion, we need to add wins.

 

Compared to last year I would hope Dickey adds 1 win, MB stays the same, Morrow adds 2 wins, and we need another starter to add 2-3 wins above what we can currently expect from what we have. On the offensive side I'd hope for 1 win from Catcher, 1 from 2b (just because they can't be as bad), 1 win from Lawrie, 1 win from healthy Reyes, 1 from Melky being better. That's about 10-11 wins and enough to put us in contention. Beyond that it will be down to luck and statistical variances. Adding 2-3 wins at 2b would have be nice but doesn't seem to be in the cards.

 

Agreed.

[GD]

OT- Did you set your avatar to "YOU'RE BANNED!" Or did a mod do that?

 

99% sure it's him

[GD]

lol wtf

 

Well hey, he's an important member of this board, snuffing all those teenage annoyances out with his valuable spamming of the report feature. I'm sure he's banned many an unsuspecting teenage fool. It fits him.

[connorp]

"Losing JJ is addition by subtraction"..

 

Idk. Was wrong on him last year but if he was still on this roster.. I would prob put my money on him having lowest ERA