Falling Canadian Dollar

[kgm1]

The Canadian Dollar is expected to keep falling over 2014 . Some expect it to go to 90 cents and hover around there. A 90 cent dollar would put us around 150 mil without adding anyone . I haven't done the conversion but at 94 cents that should add aprox 8 million to the +or- 135 mil that we are at .

 

If the 150 mil is the max then Obviously AA has to move salary to add any big commitment . All the more reason He should have been trading a Bautista or a Rasmus plus a higher priced reliever .

[Chappy]

The Canadian Dollar is expected to keep falling over 2014 . Some expect it to go to 90 cents and hover around there. A 90 cent dollar would put us around 150 mil without adding anyone . I haven't done the conversion but at 94 cents that should add aprox 8 million to the +or- 135 mil that we are at .

 

If the 150 mil is the max then Obviously AA has to move salary to add any big commitment . All the more reason He should have been trading a Bautista or a Rasmus plus a higher priced reliever .

 

Soooooo......basically were f***ed. Trading Bautista, Janssen, Santos, and Rasmus(if can't be extended), would have been a great way to cut some payroll, sell an aging vet in Bautista, get rid of two expiring contracts and sell a very good RP in Santos in a f***ed up relief market. All the while potentially getting some younger pieces back and being able to stay competitive by adding a Profar type or something similar.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

All it'll take for USDCAD to trend down a bit is a s***** jobs report out of the US. The FED talks about tapering and raising rates (which will cause USD to jump) but this dog and pony show has been going on for years. The new Fed chairman is cut from the same money printing cloth as Bernanke. Dont worry too much about CAD falling a bunch.

[kgm1]

Soooooo......basically were f***ed. Trading Bautista, Janssen, Santos, and Rasmus(if can't be extended), would have been a great way to cut some payroll, sell an aging vet in Bautista, get rid of two expiring contracts and sell a very good RP in Santos in a f***ed up relief market. All the while potentially getting some younger pieces back and being able to stay competitive by adding a Profar type or something similar.

 

Vik , We have been beating on AA to sign free Agents but I'm really thinking he has to move some salary and the time to do that was two f***ing months ago . Does anyone want to give Rasmus away for a draft pick . AA seems to want to keep all these offensive pieces and hope for a miracle in the Rotation . Can't extend Rasmus without money so seemed obvious to me to move him early for pitching even thou I know Gose won't hit but then sign a Guiterrez , christ he signed for 1 mil . Not sure what plan AA had for this offseason .

 

I guess he must be using the "" Hope and Pray "" plan that I have been on . Rotation pretty much is depending on the Diabetic Duo .

[Abomination]

The Canadian Dollar is expected to keep falling over 2014 . Some expect it to go to 90 cents and hover around there. A 90 cent dollar would put us around 150 mil without adding anyone . I haven't done the conversion but at 94 cents that should add aprox 8 million to the +or- 135 mil that we are at .

 

If the 150 mil is the max then Obviously AA has to move salary to add any big commitment . All the more reason He should have been trading a Bautista or a Rasmus plus a higher priced reliever .

 

Actually, that's a really good point. I've actually heard that it's expected to fall to 88 cents, then recover towards 94 cents by the end of the year. That could definitely be playing a part.

[kgm1]

All it'll take for USDCAD to trend down a bit is a s***** jobs report out of the US. The FED talks about tapering and raising rates (which will cause USD to jump) but this dog and pony show has been going on for years. The new Fed chairman is cut from the same money printing cloth as Bernanke. Dont worry too much about CAD falling a bunch.

With all the money the Fed has printed since 2009 you would think the US dollar would be really in the tank yet the CAD has fallen to 93.9 I don't understand it East and this is more up your ally but a 90 cent dollar , even a 94 cent dollar leaves AA with little wiggle room .

[Olerud363]

The Canadian Dollar is expected to keep falling over 2014 . Some expect it to go to 90 cents and hover around there. A 90 cent dollar would put us around 150 mil without adding anyone . I haven't done the conversion but at 94 cents that should add aprox 8 million to the +or- 135 mil that we are at .

 

If the 150 mil is the max then Obviously AA has to move salary to add any big commitment . All the more reason He should have been trading a Bautista or a Rasmus plus a higher priced reliever .

 

I made a real enemy with this argument.... but "experts" can't exactly predict this stuff.

 

Why would anybody by dollars at 94 cents if it is guarenteed to go down to 90?? That's a simplistic argument which would lead to a book (and has led to many) as you go through all the counter arguments.

 

At the end of the day any prediction effects the system itself in unpredictable ways. They can be self-fulfilling or self-limiting. If they know something the big boys ussually keep it quiet, so anything you and me hear isn't from the big boys, but more from glorified errand boys/talking heads. A lot of the "expert predictions" are made by people with a vested interest to effect the system (Rogers stock will double by the end of the year, buy Rogers stock).

 

That being said I am sure knuckleheads at Rogers think they can predict the dollar, and if some idiot has told some Rogers suits that the dollar is headed for 90 (and it very well might be there are only 2 directions it can head) then I am sure Rogers is putting that into their assumptions. So your point is valid.

[Olerud363]

The Canadian Dollar is expected to keep falling over 2014 . Some expect it to go to 90 cents and hover around there. A 90 cent dollar would put us around 150 mil without adding anyone . I haven't done the conversion but at 94 cents that should add aprox 8 million to the +or- 135 mil that we are at .

 

If the 150 mil is the max then Obviously AA has to move salary to add any big commitment . All the more reason He should have been trading a Bautista or a Rasmus plus a higher priced reliever .

 

I'm a canadian living in the states. Over the years I've had dual savings in American and Canadian funds. I had "expert" advice on when to time transfers. It ended up costing me untold amounts of money. The people that gave me this advice continuee to give people "advice" and make tonnes off fees. This experience (in part) has led to a lot of my thoughts on suits, experts and other trouble makers. IE Beeston and that type. To me Gibbons, and AA are working class... guys that get way more grief then they deserve. But apparently this view is strange.

 

Not that I totally hate financial advisors. The good guys admit they can't predict s***, ask about your risk assessment and set you up from there. Basically combine index funds and lottery tickets according to your risk level... no predictions.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

Olerud, those financial advisors who sit in offices at your local bank branch selling mutual funds to financially illiterate rubes are not "experts".... All they need is to do to get a job like that is to pass the CSC (which is laughably easy).

 

It's your own fault for listening to them.

[xposbrad]

The OP is correct. A lot of forex experts believe the dollar will weaken throughout 2014. There is right now heavy selling on the CAD dollar for whatever reason. Whoever said they hedge their bets, and the dollar fluctuation is insignificant is 100% incorrect. While a lot of revenues are in CAD and expenses/payroll are in USD, they might have forex options but you don't know the quantity of their options or what prices they are locked in at or how long they have options for. Either way, since revenues are in CAD, that's what matters, since the teams down south have their revenues in a stronger US dollar moving forward, that's the only thing we do know.

[kgm1]

Currency hedges, direct and indirect, are widely known, available and utilized. So that a business segment which has a lot of cross-national interests, expense and revenue sources will surely already be (somewhat) guarded against short and long-term currency fluctuations, as they relate to general budgeting concerns. That makes this a relative non-issue.

 

I expect the jays to have a certain amt of their budget already in US funds but do you honestly believe they have 135 mil ? So even if they do it now they would still be losing aprox 6 % .

[HERPDERP]

Sooo...how about that dogecoin?

[Chappy]

Olerud, those financial advisors who sit in offices at your local bank branch selling mutual funds to financially illiterate rubes are not "experts".... All they need is to do to get a job like that is to pass the CSC (which is laughably easy).

 

It's your own fault for listening to them.

 

I always laugh at people who think those guys are 'experts'.

[Chappy]

I expect the jays to have a certain amt of their budget already in US funds but do you honestly believe they have 135 mil ? So even if they do it now they would still be losing aprox 6 % .

 

Your right, The impact won't be as simple as looking at the value of the dollar, since they would have essentially hedged their bets.

[eastcoastjaysfan]

USDCAD has traded within a very moderate range over the last 3 years... It is not a volatile exchange rate at all. To think that the Canadian dollar is going to collapse against US dollar is ridiculous. It's at 3.5 year low vs the USD now and it's still worth a reasonable amount. This is barely a relevant topic. Zomg peaks and valleys in the forex market this is the first time this has ever happened!

 

http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=USDCAD&tf=w1

[xposbrad]

I am the one that said they hedge their bets, and I am 100% correct, or they are completely incompetent boobs who need to be removed from any fiscal responsibilities whatsoever. I don't need to know what instruments they're using (and options are clearly not the only mechanism one utilizes in currency hedging), and what the specifics of these instruments are (strike price, ref obligation, exp/maturity date, etc.). That's for them to figure out, based on their determined risk profile and general macro environment assessment. I simply stated that they have to have these in place when their business segment deals in inter-currency transacting. And their revenues are not only in CAD (in fact, USD revenue could be 50% or more by now with the rising value of MLB-wide TV agreements ... it was over 30% 10 years or so ago), so they are not fully exposed to USD/CAD fluctations.

 

I doubt they are fully exposed, but remember, protection costs money. You don't know how much or what kind of hedges they have and at what rates either. When the US dollar was stronger, it hurt the Habs and Expos bottom line, so even with their hedges it still affected their business.

[Caper]

I bet rogers has a big vault full of about a billion in American currency they bought when the dollar was a $1.10.

[GD]

Bitcoin mining > your puny investments

[Abomination]

Bitcoin mining > your puny investments

 

Bitcoin mining MIGHT have been somewhat viable several years ago

[GD]

Have a friend that mined back in the day and he sold his last year to go to Australia with his GF for $6000. What he sold would be worth $2M today.

 

One of his friends still has his and is sitting on $8M.

 

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/archive/b/b5/20120914120348!Exploding-head.gif

[eastcoastjaysfan]

The bitcoin bubble has burst. Not a big fan of investing in something that swings by 50% every hour.

[kcjaysfan]

http://images.wikia.com/uncyclopedia/images/archive/b/b5/20120914120348!Exploding-head.gif

 

This gif is so amazing, and it really has an incredible breadth of applicability.

[Gorlak]

The weak Canadian dollar has more to do with Canada than America. Housing bubble, Slow growth, no chance of inflation over 2% for years, and less foreign investment as we get further from the recession. The U.S. is in a much better situation than Canada.

[TheHurl]

Olerud, those financial advisors who sit in offices at your local bank branch selling mutual funds to financially illiterate rubes are not "experts".... All they need is to do to get a job like that is to pass the CSC (which is laughably easy).

 

It's your own fault for listening to them.

 

hey now, they need the CPH too. Yes, they are useless ****s, 3 years of cleaning up their errors at CIBC was not fun. At least the Gundy f***ups were guys that legitimately knew what they were doing, things just went wrong.

 

Of course no expert can predict the dollar 100% correctly, but I can tell you that the top economists at CIBC were pretty damn good for me.

[Dick_Pole]

Meh...a non-issue, usually perpetuated by a media loudmouth like JPR looking for excuses at to why his team sucks or he can't get free agents. Any company with a treasury department worth the salary that it signs its own checks on will have hedged their currency risk for budgeting purposes several months before.

 

I work for a competitor of Rogers and our US purchases for 2014 are fully hedged for Q1 and more than half hedged for the rest of the year in September 2013. I can imagine that Rogers would have a similar policy. I'm pretty sure that any budget number that Alex was given in October already took into account hedged currencies and recent fluctuations will have no impact on his target.

[Dick_Pole]

Have a friend that mined back in the day and he sold his last year to go to Australia with his GF for $6000. What he sold would be worth $2M today.

 

One of his friends still has his and is sitting on $8M.

 

Everyone has one of those. I had 30K shares of this company on the NASDAQ symbol OXBT in which I bought for less than $2 literally minutes before the stock went crazy. I sold it in the mid-2's getting scared that it would drop the very next day. Instead it went up to almost $10 like 3 or 4 days later.

 

On the flip side I was looking at a gold company in Canada symbol CSI at a buck a few weeks ago. It was down from $5 earlier in the year so it looked like it was cheap. I avoided it and it was the right call - it closed at 4 cents today.

 

We all tend to remember our great missed opportunities but forget all those land mines that we brilliantly avoided. We have a limited set of choices in life so there will be numerous good and bad ones that we didn't make. Chances are if you have enough time to waste and so little problems in your life than you can use it to talk about a losing baseball team in the off-season, you've been lucky/fortunate/smart enough to make more good decisions than bad ones in life.

[KingKat]

Meh...a non-issue, usually perpetuated by a media loudmouth like JPR looking for excuses at to why his team sucks or he can't get free agents. Any company with a treasury department worth the salary that it signs its own checks on will have hedged their currency risk for budgeting purposes several months before.

 

I work for a competitor of Rogers and our US purchases for 2014 are fully hedged for Q1 and more than half hedged for the rest of the year in September 2013. I can imagine that Rogers would have a similar policy. I'm pretty sure that any budget number that Alex was given in October already took into account hedged currencies and recent fluctuations will have no impact on his target.

 

JPR was negatively effected by hedging. When the dollar got stronger the Jays weren't able to benefit right away.

[EdelweissBouquet]

The Royal Canadian Mint announced that they are going to take the polar bear off the toonie,and replace it with two gay male deers copulating .

In other words, it's two f***ing bucks.

[GD]

We all tend to remember our great missed opportunities but forget all those land mines that we brilliantly avoided. We have a limited set of choices in life so there will be numerous good and bad ones that we didn't make. Chances are if you have enough time to waste and so little problems in your life than you can use it to talk about a losing baseball team in the off-season, you've been lucky/fortunate/smart enough to make more good decisions than bad ones in life.

 

Holy s*** that was well said.

[kgm1]

Meh...a non-issue, usually perpetuated by a media loudmouth like JPR looking for excuses at to why his team sucks or he can't get free agents. Any company with a treasury department worth the salary that it signs its own checks on will have hedged their currency risk for budgeting purposes several months before.

 

I work for a competitor of Rogers and our US purchases for 2014 are fully hedged for Q1 and more than half hedged for the rest of the year in September 2013. I can imagine that Rogers would have a similar policy. I'm pretty sure that any budget number that Alex was given in October already took into account hedged currencies and recent fluctuations will have no impact on his target.

 

So even if the jays have hedged the whole amt as you say hedging costs money and at what $$ would it be set at . 95 or 96 cents ?? What would the hedging cost ? It still takes a chunk out of the 150 mil and making it uglier going forward for next years budget .