ESPN insider - Fixing Surprising Team weaknesses

[leaffie]

I have posted the entire article, Jays are near the bottom.

 

 

 

 

 

Fixing surprising team weaknesses

 

Identifying under-the-radar problems, possible fixes for potential contenders

 

 

Updated: December 19, 2013, 12:08 PM ET

By Mike Petriello | ESPN Insider

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Matt Garza AP Photo/Colin E. BraleyCould Matt Garza be a potential fix for the Giants' troubled rotation?

 

 

The offseason is barely half over, so teams still have time to fill the remaining holes on their rosters before spring training starts. Some of those weaknesses are obvious; everyone knows, for example, that the Angels need another starting pitcher and that the Yankees, as currently constructed, might not be able to cobble together four healthy infielders at the same time.

 

However, some teams' flaws are flying a bit more under the radar and, unless fixed, could have an impact on 2014's pennant races. Here's a look at four teams with surprising weaknesses and potential fixes for each.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Team: San Francisco Giants | Weakness: Starting pitching

 

 

For a team that has long survived -- excelled, really -- on great pitching carrying a merely decent offense, the Giants have started to lean the other way over the past year or two. The problem with last season's 86-loss team wasn't the lineup, which had three star-level performers (Brandon Belt, Hunter Pence and Buster Posey) and at least two wins above replacement from all eight lineup positions, counting the combination of Angel Pagan and Juan Perez in center. It was the starting rotation, where Barry Zito and Ryan Vogelsong each fell apart, Matt Cain had his worst year since his rookie campaign and Tim Lincecum continued to look like a shell of his former elite self.

 

Tim Hudson, going on 39 years old and coming off a severely broken ankle, was the Giants' big winter upgrade, although he should still be a considerable step up from Zito. Even so, a rotation led by underappreciated young ace Madison Bumgarner is largely treading water and, after ranking 27th in MLB in WAR last season with 6.4, is projected to reach just 9.6 this year. (By comparison, Detroit led the majors in 2013 at 25.3.)

 

Proposed fix: Vogelsong's comeback story was nice, but he's best served as depth rather than guaranteed a rotation job. A No. 14 overall pick is too much to give up for free agents Ubaldo Jimenez or Ervin Santana, so adding Northern California native Matt Garza, the most talented pitcher remaining who's not subject to a qualifying offer, makes a lot of sense for a team that needs to improve to compete with the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers. The Giants won't, but they should.

 

 

 

 

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Team: Cincinnati Reds | Weakness: Outfield

 

 

Last season, the Reds had three of the better offensive performers in the National League in Shin-Soo Choo, Jay Bruce and Joey Votto, along with reasonably productive infielders Todd Frazier and Brandon Phillips, so it's somewhat surprising to see them ahead of just five other offenses in FanGraphs' 2014 WAR projections. That gets less surprising when you see that both left field and center field are projected to be barely above replacement level, with each position ranking worst in the league.

 

The downgrade from Choo to talented-but-risky Billy Hamilton is obvious, yet it's really Ryan Ludwick who's the issue here. Ludwick will turn 36 this year, is coming off a 2013 that was marred by a shoulder injury and poor performance, and has been worth fewer than 2 WAR in three of the past four seasons. Because he's also a negative defender, he shouldn't be counted upon to be an everyday player at this point, especially if the Reds are going to gamble on Hamilton in center.

 

Proposed fix: Choo would be ideal but likely will be priced out of a return to Cincinnati, and the outfield free-agent market behind him, including the overrated Nelson Cruz, is barren. Instead, this is a rarely discussed but smart landing spot for Andre Ethier, whom the Dodgers are likely to deal. Yes, he's overpriced, but the Dodgers can eat enough salary to make him palatable, and as a top-10 hitter against righty pitching over the past three years, Ethier would make for a great complement to the right-handed Ludwick while adding some Hamilton insurance after spending most of 2013 playing a surprisingly not-awful center field.

 

 

 

 

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Team: Colorado Rockies | Weakness: First base

 

 

It's been a long time since the Rockies needed to fix up first base; the last time they entered a season not expecting Todd Helton to be the primary first baseman was 1997, when the Diamondbacks and Rays had yet to play their first games. With Helton finally riding off into retirement, Colorado went out and signed former Twin Justin Morneau. That would have been fine if this were still 2006, but at age 33, with declining defense and negative value on the bases, Morneau is barely above replacement-level these days. Throw in a total inability to hit lefty pitching -- .298 career OBP, a number he hasn't even managed in a season since 2010 -- and it's easy to see how first base in Colorado could be among the least productive positions in baseball.

 

Proposed fix: Fortunately, the Rockies have an in-house solution for this problem in Michael Cuddyer, who won a batting title in 2013 but isn't likely to repeat the .382 batting average on balls in play that helped make it happen. He's still a reasonably productive hitter, however, and giving him 50 percent or so of the time at first base would not only help minimize Morneau's exposure, but it also would keep one of the worst defensive right fielders of 2013 from doing as much damage in the outfield. So far this month, Colorado has added defensively proficient outfielders Brandon Barnes and Drew Stubbs, giving it both the depth and flexibility to make such a move. The Rockies have some interesting pieces, but they just need to deploy them correctly.

 

 

 

 

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Team: Toronto Blue Jays | Weakness: Starting pitching

 

 

A year ago, Toronto's rotation was newly assembled and fascinating, with NL Cy Young winner R.A. Dickey, Miami ace Josh Johnson and the reliable Mark Buehrle joining Brandon Morrow and J.A. Happ. Beset by injuries and Dickey's inability to repeat his 2012 performance, last season the Jays ended up using 13 starters, including digging up discards like Ramon Ortiz and Chien-Ming Wang. Now, Johnson is gone to San Diego, Dickey is 39, Morrow's health can't be counted on and the Jays suddenly have a rotation that's middle-of-the-pack at best. In a tough American League East and with a still-dangerous lineup, Toronto badly needs a starter it can rely on in order to make the run it was supposed to go on last season.

 

Proposed fix: Because Toronto failed to sign its 2012 first-round pick (No. 10 overall) and finished with the No. 9 overall pick this year, the Blue Jays have two protected first-round picks. That means that signing a player who received a qualifying offer would cost them only their second-round pick (their third in the draft, somewhere around No. 45 overall) and shouldn't cause hesitation on moving on such a player the way it might for other clubs.

 

Santana is a possible fit, but the better choice is Jimenez, who is less homer-prone than Santana while missing more bats, important in an offense-friendly Toronto park. The draft pick is immaterial here, while the boost to what is clearly a win-now Toronto team is essential.

[LunchBox]

Jeff Sulivan posted an article this week proposing Ethier as an excellent alternative to Choo, which obviously makes the Reds an ideal fit. The problem being they really have nothing to offer LAD as they don't posses depth in the BP or at 3B. The Reds and Dodgers were the 20 and 21 best BPs in 2013, which I wouldn't have guessed.

 

Ethier could probably be had for next to nothing without financial relief, but the Reds apparently have no money.

[kcjaysfan]

Jeff Sulivan posted an article this week proposing Ethier as an excellent alternative to Choo, which obviously makes the Reds an ideal fit. The problem being they really have nothing to offer LAD as they don't posses depth in the BP or at 3B. The Reds and Dodgers were the 20 and 21 best BPs in 2013, which I wouldn't have guessed.

 

Ethier could probably be had for next to nothing without financial relief, but the Reds apparently have no money.

 

Since the Jays have BP arms to spare, possible three-way between the Reds, Dodgers and the Blue Jays?

[LunchBox]

That's what I was thinking, but trading Brandon Phillips just opens up another hole for them and they really can't part with any SP. They really don't have depth anywhere on the ML roster so it seems.

[Abomination]

Ethier could probably be had for next to nothing without financial relief, but the Reds apparently have no money.

 

Seeing the prices this off-season, getting Ethier ourselves might not be the worst idea in the world - especially if we could send Romero along with something minor in return.

[GD]

Since the Jays have BP arms to spare, possible three-way between the Reds, Dodgers and the Blue Jays?

 

Maybe something involving Phillips, Janssen, and Ethier?

[kcjaysfan]

Maybe something involving Phillips, Janssen, and Ethier?

 

I just wonder if the teams would be ok with the salaries involved. While the Dodgers would get ~$16M/yr of salary relief for the next four years, including $11M next year, the Reds would be taking on an extra $4M in salary over the next four years, and the Blue Jays take on an extra $7M next season, plus $13M/yr for the following three years.

[GeorgiaPeach]

I appreciate the posting of the article.

 

The scope of making the team better now and in the future is very narrow and thus a big problem. And this is what this article does to amplify that way of addressing team weaknesses.

 

For me it parallels drafting for need.

 

What the Jays should do or have done was put Bautista on the block to the highest bidder and reap the rewards, not looking back or caring what the backlash is.

[kcjaysfan]

What the Jays should do or have done was put Bautista on the block to the highest bidder and reap the rewards, not looking back or caring what the backlash is.

 

Regardless of whether this is the correct move or not, I'm pretty sure we all know that there is an incredibly small chance that AA trades Bautista, unless the return is a front-end starter, and even then, I'm not sure he would do it.

[John_Havok]

Regardless of whether this is the correct move or not, I'm pretty sure we all know that there is an incredibly small chance that AA trades Bautista, unless the return is a front-end starter, and even then, I'm not sure he would do it.

 

If AA wanted Neil Walker in return for Lind, his price for Bautista would probably start with Trout...

[LunchBox]

The more I try and work out the details of this three team trade, it's becoming increasingly obvious that CIN is just f***ed.

 

They have no viable alternative to Phillips at 2B and they have no money unless they trade...Brandon Phillips. They also have no depth anywhere, especially in the bullpen, which isn't so much bad as it is shallow.

[kcjaysfan]

The more I try and work out the details of this three team trade, it's becoming increasingly obvious that CIN is just f***ed.

 

They have no viable alternative to Phillips at 2B and they have no money unless they trade...Brandon Phillips. They also have no depth anywhere, especially in the bullpen, which isn't so much bad as it is shallow.

 

Clearly, the only viable option is for the Reds to trade Phillips for future Hall of Famer, Ryan Goins.

[Angrioter]

If AA wanted Neil Walker in return for Lind, his price for Bautista would probably start with Trout...

 

Alex sent a subliminal message to the pirates about Lind's status.

 

Lind for Walker = Lind isn't available.

[LunchBox]

I'm giving up, it can't be done, CIN is just too s***. They've got this tub o' lard named Broxton making an outrageous amount of money for sucking dick. It's pretty bad when you have to trade your totally respectable and only legitimate 2B option to free up money because of a fat, horrible reliever who will make at least $17 million over the next two years and can't be traded.

[kcjaysfan]

I've been wondering all offseason if this kind of thing is why we still have our big-4 relievers and couldn't acquire Fister. AA pretty clearly doesn't look at players in terms of wins added, so he could be overvaluing pieces that aren't actually that valuable (like relievers). He did trade Napoli for Francisco.

 

With the s***** return they got for Fister, I almost want to believe that Dombrowski was a fool and wasn't interested in anything the Jays have.

[Chappy]

I've been wondering all offseason if this kind of thing is why we still have our big-4 relievers and couldn't acquire Fister. AA pretty clearly doesn't look at players in terms of wins added, so he could be overvaluing pieces that aren't actually that valuable (like relievers). He did trade Napoli for Francisco.

 

I'm certain he overvalues his relievers. Part of it I'm sure is because most of the pen other than Santos is cheap, and even then Santos has value. The problem I have is that Janssen is in a walk year and it would be idiotic not to move him considering the great relief depth we have. I just hope his demands don't cost us potential assets for a redundant piece on our roster.

[Chappy]

Didn't AA inquire about Fister? He was simply told, you don't have the pieces they were looking for?! Can't fault him on that.

 

That statement could go both ways. AA could have taken some guys off the table and hence being told they didn't have the pieces. It's hard to imagine AA couldn't easily beat that package and the cost having little impact on this organization.