Is AA a Good GM?

[Boxcar]

I would go:

 

1. Friedman

2. Mozeliak

3. Beane

4. Hoyer

5. Huntington

6. Daniels

-

-

-

-

48. Ed Wade

105. Ruben Amaro

[Dr. Dinger]

Burnett and Liriano had great years, but I wouldn't bet on a repeat. Does no one remember the army training/hell's angels debacle? Because that was extremely bushleague.

[Boxcar]

What has Luhnow done to get mentioned in the top tier? That team is going to be very bad for the foreseeable future.

 

Yeah, he's a guy I think will be good, but he hasn't done f*** all yet to garner any praise.

[Angrioter]

i would go:

 

1. Friedman

2. Mozeliak

3. Beane

4. Hoyer

5. Huntington

6. Daniels

-

-

-

28. Jack z

29. Moore

30. Colletti

-

-

48. Ed wade

49. Minaya

105. Ruben amaro

 

 

iftfy

[Dick_Pole]

Whether he's good or not really depends on what you value most as a GM. Because he's great at some things and terrible at other aspects of his job. What I can say is he is an underachiever. If he did even some the basics right that most posters on here can see needs to be done, then he'd be much better. He's like a guy that can pass an advanced calculus class but gets so myopic that he'll fail basic grade 8 math.

 

How can someone have done such ridiculous roster management? Tossing away catchers and middle infielders in favour of an abundance of relievers. On top of that, the guys who could be used as starters in favour of the trash we saw during the season aren't even given a chance to do so. This was very basic stuff that he screwed up massively on.

[LunchBox]

What has Luhnow done to get mentioned in the top tier? That team is going to be very bad for the foreseeable future.

 

It's the pre-contention honeymoon phase, same reason that everyone was sucking AA's dick 2010-2011. Once there are meaningful results to be evaluated everyone will become consumed by how certain moves didn't meet their unrealistic expectations and he will be described as "below average".

 

I kid obviously, but only sort of.

[Boxcar]

Burnett and Liriano had great years, but I wouldn't bet on a repeat. Does no one remember the army training/hell's angels debacle? Because that was extremely bushleague.

 

Not sure if Huntington had anything to do with that, though. Likely he didn't.

 

Burnett had a 3 WAR year and then a 4 WAR year as a pirate, not a one year thing and I see no reason why he'd fall off a cliff. Liriano didn't have a fluky season by any stretch, and even his projections have him at about league average (conservative IMO.)

 

I know he was the guy to s*** on before, but you can't ignore the moves he's made that we all loved. Liriano was a clear buy-low (decent peripherals), Burnett was a buy low (based on his xFIP in 2011, Huntington picked up a buy low player who fit into his home park perfectly), Russell Martin and his underrated D and framing. It's like he became a different man.

[GD]

It's like he became a different man.

 

He's also put a huge emphasis on shifting throughout the organization based on a ton of data, it's really impressive.

[Dr. Dinger]

It's the pre-contention honeymoon phase, same reason that everyone was sucking AA's dick 2010-2011. Once there are meaningful results to be evaluated everyone will become consumed by how certain moves didn't meet their unrealistic expectations and he will be described as "below average".

 

I kid obviously, but only sort of.

 

No, that's pretty spot-on.

[LunchBox]

Whether he's good or not really depends on what you value most as a GM. Because he's great at some things and terrible at other aspects of his job. What I can say is he is an underachiever. If he did even some the basics right that most posters on here can see needs to be done, then he'd be much better. He's like a guy that can pass an advanced calculus class but gets so myopic that he'll fail basic grade 8 math.

 

How can someone have done such ridiculous roster management? Tossing away catchers and middle infielders in favour of an abundance of relievers. On top of that, the guys who could be used as starters in favour of the trash we saw during the season aren't even given a chance to do so. This was very basic stuff that he screwed up massively on.

 

You just became my personal favourite. That probably took you what, five minutes? I spent hours today writing one post to convey practically the same thing and it was more or less overlooked. Yours was probably more effective.

[Boxcar]

Dunno if I've ever seen a GM do such a 180, which says a lot about his character. Maybe a guy who was introduced to advanced stats a bit later and took to them instead of just laughing them off (like a certain Greek individual.) Takes a lot of courage to make a dramatic change like that.

[LunchBox]

It's hard not to like Luhnow's potential. He played a huge role in player development with the Cardinals for a long time and always comes across as being very intelligent in interviews. Obviously he has to win eventually, but among the game's unproven GMs I'll take Luhnow over anyone else.

 

That's valid. I've heard people in the industry say that they'd take Michael Girsch (sp?) over 15-20 current GMs. The entire organization is a breading ground young executives.

[Angrioter]

The Sean Nolin fiasco was some of the worst roster management I've witnessed as a Jays fan.

 

Alex trying to join to the status quo.

 

Pirates - Cole - Succes

Marlins - Cuban guy - Succes

Mets - Harvey - Succes

Reds - Cingrani - Succes

Cards - Wacha/Miller/Tsunami - Succes

Royals - Yordano - Succes

M's - Paxton - Succes

 

Alex forgot a small detail; All those guys upstairs have talent, Nolin doesn't.

[GeorgiaPeach]

It's hard not to like Luhnow's potential. He played a huge role in player development with the Cardinals for a long time and always comes across as being very intelligent in interviews. Obviously he has to win eventually, but among the game's unproven GMs I'll take Luhnow over anyone else.

 

Its not fair for people to be down on a guy who inherited a team with virtually no assets and a pretty bad farm.

[Boxcar]

alex trying to join to the status quo.

 

Pirates - cole - success

marlins - cuban guy - success

mets - harvey - success

reds - cingrani - success

cards - wacha/miller/tsunami - success

royals - yordano - success

m's - paxton - success

 

alex forgot a small detail; all those guys upstairs have talent, nolin doesn't.

 

ftfy

[Boxcar]

Its not fair for people to be down on a guy who inherited a team with virtually no assets and a pretty bad farm.

 

Who's down on him? The argument is that he isn't a top 5 GM because he hasn't really accomplished anything yet. Plenty of people believe he'll be a great GM.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Who's down on him? The argument is that he isn't a top 5 GM because he hasn't really accomplished anything yet. Plenty of people believe he'll be a great GM.

 

Sorry got Dinger's comment in my head and thought he was knocking him down a notch.

[Chappy]

The thing that bugs me about AA is that I really think there is a very good GM in him. He has his faults but I really believe he was pressured into putting a competitive team on the field last season by Beaston and the higher ups and as a result he s*** the bed. None of last winter really fit with what he was doing.

[Dr. Dinger]

Sorry got Dinger's comment in my head and thought he was knocking him down a notch.

 

I was knocking him down a notch because he hasn't produced anything yet, I'm not knocking him for having a s***** team. I commend him for bottoming out at time at the right team (I think Rodon is going to be a franchise player).

[GeorgiaPeach]

I was knocking him down a notch because he hasn't produced anything yet, I'm not knocking him for having a s***** team.

 

I realized that after Boxy posted to me.

[Dr. Dinger]

I realized that after Boxy posted to me.

 

No worries. I just sent you a trade offer in FC for a prospect on your block.

[Dr. Dinger]

Frazier?

 

He traded Frazier in FC, still owns him in DDL I believe. Actually I inquired on two prospects on his block, both position players. I think I've got a good stable of pitching prospects so I'm looking to add positional depth.

[OBPlover]

He's not terrible, he's not the best GM in the world but he has pulled off some good trades. Thames for Delabar anyone?

 

What bothers me about AA is that here is a guy who should be just about the ultimate "stat geek". He's not one of those old school GM's that used to play MLB baseball and then field managed for a number of years or who became a longtime scout. His only weapon is that degree in economics, which makes me think he has some degree of skill with numbers. Skill that for some reason, he simply refuses to apply.

 

He constantly puts players on the field, ignoring the value of OBP. It's not 30 years ago anymore. Even most casual fans have heard of this stat. But AA seems content to send guys out there that just fail in this category. IIRC, at times during the 2010 and 2011 season, the lineup featured 7 or 8 guys who had OBP less than .310 during the previous year. You just aren't going to win many baseball games with stats like that.

 

I also don't think he understands the RC. It's a hitter's park. Maybe even correctly labeled a hitter's paradise. The ball just really carries to right field. He needs to focus on high K pitchers or pitchers with very good GB% rates and focus on acquiring lefties. Look at Dickey, he's an aging knucleballer that even in his good years was still a little too HR prone. Right handed soft tossers will not work at the RC.

[KingKat]

Mozeliak then Friedman then Beane are a clear top 3 for me and it's a bit muddled after that. Daniels would have been a clear choice for number 4 at one point but Huntington had the best off-season of anyone last year and Daniels may be backing the Rangers into a bit of a corner with recent payroll commitments. Huntington seems like a real master of the small moves, adding wins without making big sacrifices. Jocketty and Hoyer are easy guys to overlook especially in a NL central that's crowded with smart front-offices but the Reds have been putting good teams together for awhile and the Cubs good get scrary good in the near future. Heck even Melvin isn't so bad, the Brewers were at the forefront of the defensive shift movement and managed to get better than expected run prevention from bad defensive teams by doing it.

[Abomination]

He's not terrible, he's not the best GM in the world but he has pulled off some good trades. Thames for Delabar anyone?

 

What bothers me about AA is that here is a guy who should be just about the ultimate "stat geek". He's not one of those old school GM's that used to play MLB baseball and then field managed for a number of years or who became a longtime scout. His only weapon is that degree in economics, which makes me think he has some degree of skill with numbers. Skill that for some reason, he simply refuses to apply.

 

He constantly puts players on the field, ignoring the value of OBP. It's not 30 years ago anymore. Even most casual fans have heard of this stat. But AA seems content to send guys out there that just fail in this category. IIRC, at times during the 2010 and 2011 season, the lineup featured 7 or 8 guys who had OBP less than .310 during the previous year. You just aren't going to win many baseball games with stats like that.

 

I also don't think he understands the RC. It's a hitter's park. Maybe even correctly labeled a hitter's paradise. The ball just really carries to right field. He needs to focus on high K pitchers or pitchers with very good GB% rates and focus on acquiring lefties. Look at Dickey, he's an aging knucleballer that even in his good years was still a little too HR prone. Right handed soft tossers will not work at the RC.

 

Apparently when AA first started in baseball, he was heavily into stats. Something unknown slowly changed his mind, and he went completely in the opposite direction. It appears to me that he's now heading back in the stats direction, albeit not as quickly as we'd like. It seems he IS valuing OBP more now, judging by the hiring of Seitzer. Of course, he also seems happy with Goins at second, so take that as you will.

[Abomination]

I feel like that may not have actually been true. There was an article a few weeks about about Jack Z and how he claimed to be heavy into stats to get the job, but really never understood them and then gave up the charade entirely. Someone who could pretend to understand that stuff would have done well in a JPR front office, and AA talked a bit about stats when he was first hired, but his moves have exposed him IMO. This isn't the work of a man who understands the statistical side of the game.

 

Well, I think it was implied that he had moved away from them well before he became GM, not after. AA lying about something also seems completely out of character, as he seems to go out of his way not to. Jack Z just seems like an ass.

[Abomination]

I dunno, For someone who's aware of stats to just start ignoring them and throwing out 2-8 grades on MLB players is pretty incomprehensible. I mean we're talking about a guy with a demonstrated disregard for DIPS, defensive metrics, platoon splits, and the value of relief pitching. I have a very hard time believing that he's aware of the numbers and chooses to ignore them.

 

Well it seems like almost every GM overvalues relief pitching (at least AA is overvaluing it with cheaper guys that have great stuff), and AA appears to be paying more attention to defensive metrics this off-season (he might have swung too far in the other direction). I agree with the platoon splits. I really don't know what to make of it overall.

 

I suspect if all the guys on this board with higher end statistical knowledge were to put together a series of reports that were really thorough and well polished, we could shift him back towards the stats end of things.

[LunchBox]

I feel like that may not have actually been true. There was an article a few weeks about about Jack Z and how he claimed to be heavy into stats to get the job, but really never understood them and then gave up the charade entirely. Someone who could pretend to understand that stuff would have done well in a JPR front office, and AA talked a bit about stats when he was first hired, but his moves have exposed him IMO. This isn't the work of a man who understands the statistical side of the game.

 

Strictly hypothetical: A general manager excels at identifying, acquiring and then retaining talent below market value, but has no interest in or understanding of modern statistical analysis. His team operates with a payroll in the top 10 but not higher than 5th. In your opinion, is it possible for this individual, in this day and age, to run his club in a manner that keeps them between 85-100 wins per season, for a 10 year period?

[LunchBox]

That's legitimate. Let's assume talent is identified using a combination traditional scouting and counting stats. Valued not in terms of wins but relative to a list of comparable players generated considering performance and upside, performance being assessed using only the most rudimentary of statistics. From this list you can approximate contract values and some kind of reference point for trade values. Occasionally this system is exposed and you end up trading Mike Napoli for Frank Fransisco because you're list contains for few Napoli-esque points of data and even fewer instances of them being traded, thus you're vulnerable to poor evaluation of their value. However, on the whole this system works quite well in terms of identifying high end talent and you're margin for error is such that you're not crippled by the occasional bad decision.

[LunchBox]

Realistically I have to agree with that sentiment.

 

That ended up far more convoluted than I intended, but the point was very simple. He's actually doing a number of things very well and it's a small change that he needs to be embraced to optimize results. The organization has without question taken a step forward since 2009, there's considerably more impact talent at both the major and minor league level and far less fiscal irresponsibility.

 

People get hung up on particular instances that were handled poorly, but fail to look at the big picture which is one of overall success, not failure. Someone should really study the dynamics of sports forums as they pertain to perceptual biases, this place is a gold mine.