Let 'er Ride for 2014: My thoughts

[GD]

Sierra has 5 tools.

 

It's just that 4 of them are below average-mediocre ones.

[Angrioter]

I'm feeling some animosity towards me here ang. Want to hug it out?

 

OK. Love U man.

[ElNik2013]

Sure, if they had a time machine they could do that. In hindsight everything looks clear. I thought we were on our way to the World Series with those stunning signings and trades last year. They must have too. It didn't work. Now we need to start in a different direction, I don't want to panic spend and buy additional s***** personnel. If GM_AA went to Beeston and the new CEO and said hey, we went all in and it backfired, and now we don't have the money to get us out of the hole let me build it up again he may not be fired. Put it this way, he can thrown $30M at some crappy players that won't fill our holes, and maybe trade some prospects, but that certainly won't save his job. Taking a reasonable, building methodical approach, something he's good at, is really IMHO the only way he saves his skin.

 

 

I think most on this board would agree with this, the problem is that all signs point to AA and Beeston continuing in the direction they took last off season.

 

I, like several others on this forum, was not FOR the trades that were made last off season and would've been fine with focusing on signing FA to plug the holes the team had and if they struck out, would've been happy with waiting for the farm to bear fruits.

 

AA and company will continue with the "all in" strategy even though we wish they'd admit defeat. I certainly hope they spend money instead of spending money and prospects to plug the holes. Unfortunately, AA has shown that he'd rather overspend in both $ and prospects than just in $ to plug holes, as dumb as that sounds, that's the man in charge of the team.

[GD]

Just to clear something up; those projections aren't for replacement-level players at those positions. Steamer has our catchers at 1.9 fWAR, 2B at 0.4 fWAR, Happ at 1.5 over 25 starts, Rogers at 1.5 over 25 starts, Redmond at 0.6 over 8 starts, Nolin 0.4 over 8 starts etc...

 

Also, it's only one projection system.

 

And their projections are still in beta, aren't they?

[kcjaysfan]

1. Go with JPA and Thole at catcher, just like last year. Huh? What? I know. It hurts. But, JPA's value has never been lower. Hear me out. We hope he has the same spring he did last year and sustains it a little longer. Then, we trade him before the deadline to net more than we would right now.

 

Getting value for Arencibia at the trade deadline next year is predicated upon him having sustained, significant success through July next year. While it is possible for him to regress closer to 2011/2012 JPA, he's just way too streaky to assume that he'll be of any worth on a month-to-month basis.

 

Here's my highly-trained evaluation of his April-July stats from 2011-2013:

 

[table=width: 500", class: outer_border]

[tr]

[td]Year[/td]

[td]April/March[/td]

[td]May[/td]

[td]June[/td]

[td]July[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2011[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]Mediocre[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2012[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]Very good[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2013[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

You also have to hope that someone needs a mediocre catcher at the deadline next year.

[Angrioter]

Getting value for Arencibia at the trade deadline next year is predicated upon him having sustained, significant success through July next year. While it is possible for him to regress closer to 2011/2012 JPA, he's just way too streaky to assume that he'll be of any worth on a month-to-month basis.

 

Here's my highly-trained evaluation of his April-July stats from 2011-2013:

 

[table=width: 500", class: outer_border]

[tr]

[td]Year[/td]

[td]April/March[/td]

[td]May[/td]

[td]June[/td]

[td]July[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2011[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]Mediocre[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2012[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]Very good[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2013[/td]

[td]Good[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[td]s***[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

 

You also have to hope that someone needs a mediocre catcher at the deadline next year.

 

The 2013 was his best year. 75% s***, pure consistency

[GD]

The 2013 was his best year. 75% s***, pure consistency

 

Joe Morgan likes his consistency

[Angrioter]

Joe Morgan likes his consistency

 

If you put Joe Morgan alone in a room for 4 hours he forgets how to speak.

[GD]

No, they're just ever changing based on trades and signings. Playing time changes and replacement level slightly changes to incorporate the free agents who are not included in the replacement level calculation.

 

Playing time is iffy, yeah. Stroman projected for like 8 innings lol.

[jaysblue]

Well, he is hot. But so is Brad Pitt and I don't want him to be our catcher either. But I think at this stage we build him up to say see ya' with better results.

 

At least Brad Pitt took the Oakland A's to the postseason.

[Candy Maldonado]

Is dogg pretending to be a girl again?

[TheHurl]

post topless pic with a "BTS makes my panties wet" sign or we will have to assume that you are just a troll.

 

I've been advocating throwing out virtually the same roster most of the off-season. More starting pitching depth instantly makes the team in a better position than last year and really my expectations are so low I'd take a lucky run and hope for a lot of recovery seasons.

[BlueJayWay]

This is just awful. Not shocked a girl fan suggested we keep JPA at catcher.

And trade Rasmus...but keep Sierra around...yeah I get where this is going.

 

I didn't think much of the rest of the suggestions either. Also, a balanced schedule isn't walking through that door anytime soon.

 

Things WILL be shaken up. We just have to hope it's the right mix this time.

[Angrioter]

post topless pic with a "BTS makes my panties wet" sign or we will have to assume that you are just a troll.

 

I've been advocating throwing out virtually the same roster most of the off-season. More starting pitching depth instantly makes the team in a better position than last year and really my expectations are so low I'd take a lucky run and hope for a lot of recovery seasons.

 

The free agent market this year sucks. Few and expensive starting pitching options,will result in bad trades from part of Alex.

[ElNik2013]

post topless pic with a "BTS makes my panties wet" sign or we will have to assume that you are just a troll.

 

I've been advocating throwing out virtually the same roster most of the off-season. More starting pitching depth instantly makes the team in a better position than last year and really my expectations are so low I'd take a lucky run and hope for a lot of recovery seasons.

 

 

This is my take as well. If it doesn't work out, start shopping Bautista, EE, Reyes, Rasmus and others at the deadline to rebuild. If they're gonna do anything, I'd rather they just spend $ rather than $ and prospects. Anyway...

[imsorry4beatinU]

Super. You must have done fantastic in school.

 

I sure did! I was #top10 in everything..

[kcjaysfan]

I realise that you have to look at his year as a whole to evaluate, but could anybody post JPA's stats from the start of May to the end of the year?

 

From his first game in May to the end of the season:

[table=width: 500, class: outer_border]

[tr]

[td]Year[/td]

[td]PA[/td]

[td]2B[/td]

[td]3B[/td]

[td]HR[/td]

[td]BB[/td]

[td]K[/td]

[td]BA[/td]

[td]OBP[/td]

[td]SLG[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2011[/td]

[td]415[/td]

[td]18[/td]

[td]2[/td]

[td]19[/td]

[td]30[/td]

[td]115[/td]

[td].212[/td]

[td].275[/td]

[td].421[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2012[/td]

[td]302[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]0[/td]

[td]17[/td]

[td]16[/td]

[td]89[/td]

[td].244[/td]

[td].285[/td]

[td].470[/td]

[/tr]

[tr]

[td]2013[/td]

[td]396[/td]

[td]11[/td]

[td]0[/td]

[td]13[/td]

[td]16[/td]

[td]111[/td]

[td].179[/td]

[td].217[/td]

[td].312[/td]

[/tr]

[/table]

[kcjaysfan]

Just 2013 would have been fine but lol. .179/.217/.312

 

I should be working on a paper right now, but I'm lacking motivation, so I'm procrastinating.

 

And I enjoy making tables.

[kcjaysfan]

Me too!

 

http://blog.3dcart.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/yay.jpg

[havok24]

Me too!

 

Me three lol.

[John_Havok]

I think the Blue Jays have a great farm system, "A" and "AA" mostly. I want that kept intact. I don't want to see the farm depleted anymore for what is probably a fool's errand, trying to compete in the AL East in 2014. Crappy FA's are being signed for a ton, and we don't have the resources to keep up. And, there is buzz that the new Rogers CEO, who takes over in January, is a penny pincher, so whether we like it or not welcome to Interbrew ownership, 2.0

 

So, what *I* would do is the following for 2014...

 

1. Go with JPA and Thole at catcher, just like last year. Huh? What? I know. It hurts. But, JPA's value has never been lower. Hear me out. We hope he has the same spring he did last year and sustains it a little longer. Then, we trade him before the deadline to net more than we would right now. How much more? No idea. But then call up our in-house solution, Jimenez and see what he can do. Let him work the rest of the season.

 

I propose this because I hate the idea of spending millions, or losing prospects, for some 2nd or 3rd tier, defensive specialist catcher who's going to bat .190 but work wonders with the pitching staff. Most accounts peg Jimenez as a solid catcher who works well with pitchers. We already have our solution. If he bats higher than the Mendoza line, great, he sticks and we have our solution without losing prospects or money, which we will need to mete our very smartly.

 

2. Go with Cabrera in LF. But like JPA, build his value up and trade him. Or, if he's stellar and worth a qualifying offer, keep him for the pick. But I suspect we could net more with a trade.

 

3. Trade Rasmus. He's great, young and has many tools. But we have Gose, who might be better if given a chance. So, If we can trade Rasmus, great, but I would only trade him for a young, controllable pitcher who is good right now, but has upside.

 

4. Go with Goins and Izturis as 2B. See if Goins can keep it going. His defense is stellar. I think, if given the season to play 80% of the time he'll acrue a 2.0 WAR. That's great for an in-house, cheap, solution. Hopefully Izturis can build up his value a little more and be traded for something. But I'd be okay with him on the bench.

 

5. Keep Gose and Sierra on the roster somehow. If Rasmus is traded, then this is easy. I think Gose will be a pleasant surprise if he's given the entire season and I think Sierra, who in my opinion truly has 5 tools, might mature and become impact. And, if he seems solid than do the following (don't hate me)...

 

6a. Trade Bautista before the deadline. GM_AA has the trade ninja skills to pull of a huge one. Rape someone's farm system AA, do it.

 

6b. Trade Happ before season. I think for prospects at this point.

 

7. In terms of pitchers, we ride with what we have. Assuming Rasmus has been traded for someone young and controllable, we plug and play the rest of the way. We go Morrow, Dickey, new guy (#3 above), Buerhle and someone else....my money's on McGowan. We have a bullpen stocked with out of options, effective, pitchers. Throw McGowan to the wolves and let him start. If he breaks, oh well, but if he's solid, yay! We have our man. I'm hoping Buerhle has another one of his automatic seasons, then we trade him (and eat some salary obviously) to a contender who needs some innings.

 

I think this team might still be very entertaining, and still might sneak into a wildcard spot. Our farm is not only intact, but outstanding with the trades outlined. And in a couple of years we start to see those dividends pay off. I truly think this is the way to go. I mean come on guys, we can sign Ubaldo for 5-years, $90 million, but we all know that will fail miserably. Guys like Stroman and Hutchinson will be better, trust me,

 

Last point, let's hope to fricking gawd there's a balanced schedule sooner than later. That would give us a way better chance. I'm assuming this is something that might happen after old man Selig retires.

 

Welcome to the board.

 

1. Just... No. JPA cannot be allowed to try an rebuild value in a year that AA is trying to contend. It defies all logic. He should ether be traded for whatever they can get, or non-tendered. And to your thoughts about a defensive specialist being the solution, but then saying to bring up Jimenez after JPA is gone? Jimenez is exactly that. A light hitting defensive specialist, so you're somewhat contradicting yourself. Again, in a year that AA clearly means to contend, you need a proven catcher that the pitching staff can have confidence in, is a decent defender and at the very least can get on base at a respectable rate.

 

2. If the tumour thing is really the culprit of his poor play last year, then maybe he won't be a problem. But you'd only trade him if the jays are out of contention. If they're right in the middle of it and melky is hitting well, trading him probably wouldn't make sense.

 

3. See #2, minus the tumour angle. Rasmus could also very easily play LF with Gose playing CF if Melky is DHing more. This would assume that Lind would be traded at some point. And with a LHB heavy outfield, you would definitely want a RH hitting 4th OF that can handle CF every once in a while.

 

4. Contending years are no time for experiments to see if young players can handle a position. Even in limited sample we can see that Goins can handle 2b defensively pretty easily, but there's big time questions with the bat. Izturis is a good bet for a bounceback season and really, unless the Jays find a 2b via trade or free agency, the job should be his, with Goins either playing everyday at Buffalo, or as a bench guy.

 

5. Gose yes, Sierra... He's a meathead with no baseball IQ. Bench guy at best, and maybe he can be that RHB 4th of, but again, In a contending year, I'd rather see someone a bit more proven with a track record of hitting LHP very well. Losing Sierra to waivers would not be a a loss that matters.

 

6a. If the Jays are out of it and no chance of competing this year or next... Yeah time to think about it and kick start a full rebuild.

 

6b. Agree. AA paid too steep a price for a guy who could barely hold his own in the NL as a 5th starter, so he should be a mop up guy. Too bad he's making too much money to provide any value in that role. Good riddance. Let Jenkins provide mop up duty for league minimum.

 

7. No way the rotation, as it stands is enough to put this team in the playoffs unless everything goes 100% right. Dickey and Morrow would both need to perform like 1s or 2s and not get hurt, no erosion of skills from Buerhle, with 2 of Stroman/Hutchison/McGowan/Redmond(vomit)/Nolin throwing full time innings but again not getting hurt since the other guys would have to be in Buffalo waiting to jump into a spot if anyone got hurt. With MCGowan out of options, and big time questions if he can even handle a starters workload without his arm falling off mid-pitch, you'd have to plan on having someone taking his spot at some point. It's practically essential that AA lands another SP via trade or free agency to have any chance of competing, even if everything goes right, let alone when someone gets hurt. Chances are if he lands someone via trade, one of those other arms will be going the other way.

[Abomination]

7. No way the rotation, as it stands is enough to put this team in the playoffs unless everything goes 100% right. Dickey and Morrow would both need to perform like 1s or 2s and not get hurt, no erosion of skills from Buerhle, with 2 of Stroman/Hutchison/McGowan/Redmond(vomit)/Nolin throwing full time innings but again not getting hurt since the other guys would have to be in Buffalo waiting to jump into a spot if anyone got hurt. With MCGowan out of options, and big time questions if he can even handle a starters workload without his arm falling off mid-pitch, you'd have to plan on having someone taking his spot at some point. It's practically essential that AA lands another SP via trade or free agency to have any chance of competing, even if everything goes right, let alone when someone gets hurt. Chances are if he lands someone via trade, one of those other arms will be going the other way.

 

Unless they need to make McGowan the 5th starter to avoid losing him (which probably isn't the case), I actually think Drabek may be 1st in line for a rotation spot, with Hutch a close second.

[John_Havok]

Drabek must be out of options by now too I would think. Drabek 4 and McGowan 5 would be pretty interesting in a morbid kind of way. Adding another starter could keep McGowan in the pen and Drabek as the 5.

[Abomination]

Drabek must be out of options by now too I would think. Drabek 4 and McGowan 5 would be pretty interesting in a morbid kind of way. Adding another starter could keep McGowan in the pen and Drabek as the 5.

 

I'm actually quite excited by the idea of Drabek (although I'd rather get a high end starter + Porcello). The issue with Drabek (aside from the TJ's) has always been the walks since he came here, but last year the reports were that he finally realized he's got to trust his stuff and stop walking people, and he put up a 1.3 bb/9 and 5.83 k/bb. Not surprising the other numbers followed.

[John_Havok]

Agree, I just temper my expectations of Drabek since the quality of AAA free swingers compared to the bigs is pretty large when it comes to being selective. It's a good sign though for sure

[kgm1]

Drabek must be out of options by now too I would think. Drabek 4 and McGowan 5 would be pretty interesting in a morbid kind of way. Adding another starter could keep McGowan in the pen and Drabek as the 5.

 

Drabek has at least one option year left . he will definitly start the year in the Buffalo rotation .

 

While a rebuild is definitely not happening I would certain be open to a Rasmus trade . In fact I like a deal with Cincy Rasmus and A bull pen piece for Bailey and Hamilton . Both Bailey and Rasmus are 1 year rentals that I think will test free agency

[John_Havok]

Drabek has at least one option year left . he will definitly start the year in the Buffalo rotation ...

 

How's that? He pitched in the bigs in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, has spent at least 20 days in the minors in 2010, 2011 and 2013 , 2012 wiped out from his surgery.

[kgm1]

How's that? He pitched in the bigs in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, has spent at least 20 days in the minors in 2010, 2011 and 2013 , 2012 wiped out from his surgery.

 

Not sure how it worked John . Maybe due to the injury they applied to MLB and got another year . That happened with McGowan . Here are the Nine in an article from the Jays site

 

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays always seem to focus a lot of their attention on roster flexibility, but next spring the challenge will become rather daunting, with nine players out of options on the 40-man roster.

 

Players who don't have any options remaining on their contracts must pass through waivers before they can be sent to the Minor Leagues. That creates the risk of another team swooping in and taking that talent away without any compensation.

 

There are plenty of examples over the years of players making the club out of Spring Training because of their contract status. Jo-Jo Reyes cracked the rotation in 2011, lefty Luis Perez headed north the following year, and last season it was right-handed reliever Jeremy Jeffress who broke camp.

 

When the Blue Jays were rebuilding, the strategy made plenty of sense. Toronto didn't want to give away a player who could potentially become a valuable commodity down the road. With the overall win-loss record not necessarily being that important, there was an ability to be more patient in the development of a player.

 

Those days are clearly over, as general manager Alex Anthopoulos has put an emphasis on winning in the immediate future. The chances of a player making the team just based on his lack of options isn't as prevalent as it once was, but that doesn't mean it will be entirely ignored next spring.

 

Here's a closer look at which players are out of options and how that could impact plans this offseason, future trade talks and next year's roster decisions:

 

Dustin McGowan: The oft-injured McGowan hasn't been able to pitch a full season since 2007, but he finally started to prove his worth late in 2013. McGowan showed he still had something left by posting an impressive 2.45 ERA while striking out 26 over 25 2/3 innings out of the bullpen.

 

There has been some talk that McGowan will be stretched out as a starter during Spring Training. The probability of him cracking the staff entirely depends on how many starters Anthopoulos adds this offseason, but in theory, McGowan will compete for a job. A more realistic scenario would see McGowan resume his role in middle relief, where his ability to avoid contact has proven crucial. Either way, McGowan doesn't seem at risk of not making the team, as Toronto has remained by his side since 2008, and that's unlikely to change any time soon.

 

Esmil Rogers: Despite struggling during Spring Training earlier this year, Rogers was never at risk of not making the team because of his contract status. He began the year in long relief and ultimately found his way into the rotation following a series of injuries to Toronto's staff. It seems unlikely that Rogers will be in a similar role next year, but he's an early favourite to win the long reliever's job for a second consecutive year. He also could be used as trade bait, but it would have to be as a complementary piece because Rogers wouldn't have that much value on his own.

 

Todd Redmond: The 27-year-old exceeded expectations by making 14 starts, emerging as one of the feel-good stories in 2013. He was originally signed to help provide depth in the Minor Leagues, but a series of injuries and subpar results at the Major League level opened the door for a greater role. Anthopoulos' main priority this offseason is to upgrade the rotation, and that doesn't bode well for Redmond's future. Unless there is a trade this offseason, Redmond will head to Spring Training without a guaranteed job, and the club likely would take its chances by trying to sneak him through waivers.

 

Sergio Santos: After battling injuries during his first year and a half with the Blue Jays, he finally showed what he can do late in 2013. Santos finished the year with a sparkling 1.75 ERA while striking out 28 in 25 2/3 innings. He has a guaranteed job in middle relief and could become a candidate to close if the Blue Jays explore the possibility of trading right-hander Casey Janssen this winter. Either way, Santos' spot on the team is secure, and he has the potential to become one of the most dominant relievers in the game because of an overpowering fastball and a wipe-out slider.

 

Jeffress: The hard-throwing righty made last year's team out of Spring Training, but he was essentially written off just one week into the season because of an inability to command his pitches. Any team in baseball could have claimed him, but Jeffress cleared waivers and was sent to the Minor Leagues. Once there, he overhauled his mechanics and also received treatment for juvenile epilepsy.

 

That allowed Jeffress to come back in September as a seemingly different pitcher on the mound. The upper-90s velocity was still there, but the command had drastically improved, and all of a sudden, Jeffress looked like he belonged. Despite all of that, he's currently caught up in a numbers game and faces an uphill challenge to make the team. If Anthopoulos moves some relievers this offseason, Jeffress' prospects will improve, but until then, he'll face stiff competition from Rogers and Perez for the final spot in the bullpen.

 

Brad Lincoln: The veteran reliever was expected to become an integral part of the bullpen following a midseason trade with Pittsburgh in 2012. Unfortunately for Lincoln, things haven't really worked out, as he spent the entire 2013 campaign bouncing back and forth between the Majors and Minors. Lincoln's biggest problem at the big league level was his 22 walks in just 31 2/3 innings. As of now, he doesn't seem to have much of a chance to make the team, but he could be included as a secondary piece in one of Anthopoulos' trades this offseason.

 

Brett Cecil: He's now an All-Star, but back in March, there was some doubt about whether Cecil would even make the team. The left-hander competed with Jeffress in a battle of pitchers who were out of options, but it didn't take Cecil long to secure his spot for the present and the future. His season was eventually cut short because of an injury, but Cecil has proven to be lethal against lefties and will enter the year as Toronto's primary left-handed reliever.

 

Perez: Two years ago, Perez became one of former manager John Farrell's favourite relievers. He was relied upon to record key outs vs. left-handers and also throw multiple innings when needed. Perez's overall versatility proved extremely valuable, but the development then came to an end when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. He returned late in 2013 and will need a strong Spring Training to secure his spot in the organization. Unless he really struggles, there would appear to be very little chance Perez could pass through waivers. Either way, Perez should be in the Majors next year.

 

Moises Sierra: The 25-year-old outfielder seems like a prime candidate to be shopped this offseason. Toronto currently has Melky Cabrera, Colby Rasmus and Jose Bautista locked in at the three outfield spots. There is at least one spot open on the bench, but Sierra doesn't fit the mold of a reserve outfielder because of his erratic defence and inability to play centre field. That will likely increase the odds of Anthopoulos trying to include him as part of a bigger deal. On the surface, Sierra wouldn't appear to have a lot of value. But keep in mind, it wasn't that long ago that Anthopoulos was able to turn mediocre outfielder Eric Thames into right-hander Steve Delabar.

 

Gregor Chisholm is a reporter for MLB.com. Read his blog, North of the Border, and follow him on Twitter @gregorMLB. This story was no

[Abomination]

How's that? He pitched in the bigs in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, has spent at least 20 days in the minors in 2010, 2011 and 2013 , 2012 wiped out from his surgery.

 

2010 and 2013 were both September callups.

[TheHurl]

 

TORONTO -- The Blue Jays always seem to focus a lot of their attention on roster flexibility,

 

I didn't realize having 17 guys on the 60 day DL was flexibility.

 

Drabek added to the 40 man in September 2010 - No option used

2011 - June to Sept in minors (Option 1)

2012 - no time in the minors

2013 - Minors from June 22 to August 30 (Option 2).