Reds to Shop BP

[GD]

They're my favourite team.

 

inb4 ZOMG U SHUDNT CRITICIZE DEM IF U DNT LIEK DEM I BET U DNT WATCH TEH GAMEZ

 

I remember you getting a lot of that around the Marlins trade.

[jays4life19]

They're my favourite team.

 

fair.

 

Strange that you post so much here? You must be legendary on the tampa forum's?

[Laika]

How would you project his defense? Steamer has him at 7.8 (like .8 wins) and semantics withstanding that's pretty friggin' good.

 

Wild guess (not projection) would be that he'll trend towards being a zero run defender during his current deal. It could show up in the numbers as soon as next year, or it could never show up, even if his true talent goes there. Or it could never happen.

 

Or he could turn into a defensive pylon in one offseason. It happens.

 

Or he could already be a zero defender and we just don't know about it because his 2013 was lucky and because of UZR = true talent lag.

 

I wouldn't project his defense to do anything in particular aside from probably not get better; probably get worse.

[DuckDuckGose]

I don't "know" anything. Apologies for not qualifying every f***ing sentence with a probably, a maybe, or a likely. I do my best to be a non-absolutist, I swear.

 

There's a difference between having to qualify every sentence and a very definitive statement such as this;

 

" terrible idea anyway. He's a massively overrated prospect that would cost twoonies on the dollar."

 

I imagine he would cost his market value as that's generally how trades work.

[Laika]

You seem a bit ornery today. Wanna hug it out?

 

Define "hug". I get ornery when I'm hornery.

[DuckDuckGose]

You seem a bit ornery today. Wanna hug it out?

 

That's the issue, no one wants to hug a wet blanket.

[jays4life19]

Yeah, I'm kind of a big deal there.

 

Aren't you that guy on the cards forums about Colby?

[Laika]

I imagine he would cost his market value as that's generally how trades work.

 

ok guy. super smart intuitive point you just made there.

 

I'm saying that his market value would *probably* be too high. As in, he would *likely maybe probably* cost more than he's worth.

[Laika]

Well that's awkward. I'm going to have to seriously think about reconsidering that hug.

 

I suggest we keep it on the table, but we go butts-out and avoid the swordfight.

[jays4life19]

Maybe.

 

okay. Just so i'm clear. You're a TB rays fan who posts almost 4k on a jays non main stream forum, who stands up for a bluejays player on a NL team's forum?

[DuckDuckGose]

ok guy. super smart intuitive point you just made there.

 

I'm saying that his market value would *probably* be too high. As in, he would *likely maybe probably* cost more than he's worth.

 

I think we can agree that you will pay more for the years of control but, you pay more because they are worth something. Up until this year, when the Red moved Hamilton to CF, he had always had great BB rates and a decent K rate. I think a move back to the infield could do him some good and that 2B is still his best position. He should be worth more to the Jays as a 2B than to the Reds as a CF'er. I'd propose a prospect swap, Gose for Hamilton but, the Reds are still very high on Hamilton and would likely want more than that.

[jays4life19]

Yeah, that sums it up nicely.

 

Alright. Cool.

[GD]

I'm glad we could get everything out in the open and really clear things up.

 

This is such an emotional moment. Group hug? Group hug.

[GeorgiaPeach]

I imagine he would cost his market value as that's generally how trades work.

 

So was what the Mets received for Dickey market value?

 

You'd have to overpay large to get Hamilton.

[DuckDuckGose]

So was what the Mets received for Dickey market value?

 

You'd have to overpay large to get Hamilton.

 

Nope, AA got ripped off.

[GeorgiaPeach]

Whoops.....wrong thread.

 

Would that go in the "Mattingly not Getting Tossed Because he's a Pussy" Thread?

[GeorgiaPeach]

Nope, AA got ripped off.

 

And there's your answer if we traded for Hamilton.

[leaffie]

Is there a link?

 

 

Keith Law Blog

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10 disappointing AFL players

 

October, 16, 2013

Oct 16

 

11:05

 

AM ET

 

By Keith Law | ESPN.com

Recommend15

Tweet10

Comments5

Email

Print

 

 

On Monday, I wrote about players I saw last week in the Arizona Fall League who made positive impressions on me, some of whom caused me to improve my own evaluations of those players over where they were before my trip.

 

Today I'll look at the other side, 10 players who didn't meet my expectations, and in some cases who'll slide down my prospect rankings as a result. I've also appended notes on other players of interest who didn't fit squarely in either category.

 

Aaron Sanchez | RHP | Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' top prospect had an up-and-down year around minor injuries and a failed experiment with a sinker, but Toronto could at least look at his premium stuff and feel confident that he was advancing toward a spot near the top of their major league rotation. Unfortunately, Sanchez's delivery has gone backward in the past year, with a shorter-than-ever stride and a very upright release that causes his fastball to stay up and hurts his command of all pitches.

 

An upright torso at release is also correlated with higher risk of arm injuries, so it's something the Jays and Sanchez need to try to correct. Sanchez's stuff remains ace quality -- 92-96 mph on the four-seamer, a plus curveball at 76-79, a hard changeup from 85-89 -- but he has to let his athleticism and looseness on the mound show up in the delivery.

 

Taylor Lindsey | 2B | Los Angeles Angels

Lindsey has outstanding feel for hitting, with consistently high contact rates thanks to quick hands and a direct path to the ball, but other aspects of his game were lacking in Arizona last week.

 

At the plate, he's gone from a very short stride to no stride at all, so his swing is all hands and arms and he's cutting off any chance to hit for power. At second base he showed below-average hands and range in either direction, and he's a fringy runner even at full speed. He's just 21 years old and his stats to date are solid for a player his age, but I see a lot of untapped potential here, especially on offense.

 

Alen Hanson | IF | Pittsburgh Pirates

Hanson looked great in BP, with plus bat speed and average to slightly above-average power from both sides of the plate. But once the games started, the plan to get him out was simple and easy for pitchers to execute: fastballs up, sliders down.

 

He punched out five times in the 10 plate appearances I saw, and it wasn't fluky given how lost he looked. He was actually fine at shortstop, which has long been the concern with him, but he couldn't have looked worse at the plate.

 

Stephen Piscotty | OF | St. Louis Cardinals

Like Hanson, Piscotty sported a 50 percent strikeout rate in the first week of play, all with me in the stands, wishing a pox on the Stanford coaching staff for what they did to his swing. (I left and he went 4-for-4 on Monday, so maybe he just found me intimidating.)

 

Piscotty shows pull and opposite-field power in BP, but once the games started, he looked discombobulated at the plate -- trying to go the other way with fastballs in, trying to pull everything on the outer half, swinging and missing when he wasn't rolling over. As I said above, these are brief impressions based on the first week of play, so I'm not suggesting everyone in the Piscotty Appreciation Society should run for the exits. It's just not what I wanted to see.

 

Tommy La Stella | 2B | Atlanta Braves

It's not so much that anything was wrong with La Stella but that you're banking on one tool here, the hit tool. He's a fringy defender at best and a below-average runner, and I don't foresee much power with a no-load swing and a flat finish.

 

He can hit, though -- his hand-eye coordination is very good, and the swing is simple and hard, like a quick hack at the ball that could produce line drives and hard ground balls, but few hits likely to leave the park. That might be enough for Atlanta fans sick of the Dan Uggla Show -- just two more years, folks! -- but it's more average regular than star.

 

Mitch Haniger | OF | Milwaukee Brewers

Another one in the "fine, but not great" category, Haniger disappointed with his lack of visible speed or athleticism. I consistently got run times that put him at grade 40 or worse (that is comfortably below average), and twice caught him losing his focus, including one potential infield single that he lost because he was watching the fielder rather than running to the bag.

 

Haniger, a supplemental first-round pick in 2012 who lost most of last summer to a knee injury, already lost some luster with an underwhelming half-season in high Class A this year, and this doesn't help.

 

Andrew Chafin | LHP| Arizona Diamondbacks

Chafin regularly hit 95 as a starter (every seventh day) at Kent State, but the stuff has backed up, and he was 88-91 with a maybe-average changeup last week in Arizona.

 

A supplemental first-round pick in 2011, Chafin seems certain to end up in the pen between his current velocity and low strikeout rates in the regular season.

 

Keyvius Sampson | RHP | San Diego Padres

Another guy who left his fastball at home before heading to Arizona, Sampson was 89-91, from a higher slot than in the past but without an average secondary pitch.

 

With no life on the fastball due to the raised arm slot, he's fly ball-prone, and I don't see how he'll miss bats in the majors unless he gets back into the mid-90s or finds a better breaking ball.

 

Kyle Crick | RHP | San Francisco Giants

It's still power stuff, 92-95 mph with at least an average slider, but when you walk the first three guys you face in your first AFL outing of the year, no one is going to walk away thinking "We gotta trade for that guy."

 

He settled down a little in the second inning, throwing more strikes but not locating effectively. I know a lot of scouts who believe Crick has to be a reliever because there's enough effort in his delivery to preclude him having average command. If this was all I'd ever seen from Crick I'd be hard-pressed to disagree.

 

John Barbato | RHP | San Diego Padres

When I saw Barbato he walked four in two-thirds of an inning of work, so the Javelinas had to go to their bullpen in the first inning instead of the third or fourth. His performance in relief this year was adequate, but he struggled when the Pads shifted him to high Class A Lake Elsinore's rotation in late July.

 

They might want to just return him to the pen, where his 92-94 fastball and mid-80s slider could make him an interesting middle or setup man, rather than trying to start a guy who can't throw enough strikes for it.

[DuckDuckGose]

And there's your answer if we traded for Hamilton.

 

Are you saying that because AA is a bad GM or because Hamilton=Dickey? I don't really think AA has gotten fleeced on too many deals outside of last off-season which turned out just awful.

[Boxcar]

Damn, you really hate Phillips' ego, so I've noticed.

 

It would be different if he was a really good player. Kinda like JPA to a much lesser extent. Be cocky when you're a top player at your position or gtfo.

[Boxcar]

Not sure if this is a joke or not.

 

a) you can't have him

terrible idea anyway. He's a massively overrated prospect that would cost twoonies on the dollar.

 

I have no idea why really fast guys are constantly overrated. Off the top of my head, Hamilton, Gose, Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Ben Revere?, Aaron Hicks etc, etc. Our very own DJ Davis. Probably Byron Buxton, too. Guy rode a .400 BABIP all year long. He's a great prospect, but #1? No way. These prospect guys all blow their loads over speed.

[Laika]

I have no idea why really fast guys are constantly overrated. Off the top of my head, Hamilton, Gose, Dee Gordon, Alcides Escobar, Ben Revere?, Aaron Hicks etc, etc. Our very own DJ Davis.

 

It's tool syndrome. People don't know how to properly weigh the significance of tools, they see an 80 or a 70 on a guy's speed tool and all of a sudden he's getting ranked highly because he has a true "impact" tool. Obviously everyone understands that hit and hit/power are probably more important than speed, but I think when it comes to guys with plus-plus speed, people let the hypothetical upside blind them too much against the probable downside. I'd probably rather have a guy with a 50 hit tool and a 40 run, as opposed to a guy with a 40 hit tool and a 70 run (all else being roughly equal).

 

Probably Byron Buxton, too. Guy rode a .400 BABIP all year long. He's a great prospect, but #1? No way. These prospect guys all blow their loads over speed.

 

That .400 mark could very well be true talent. Minor league BABIP isn't the same as major league. If a guy can run or square up a baseball, then they'll probably BABIP .350+. If a guy can do both, then they'll probably push .400+ as a true minor league talent level. Look at what Trout's were.

[Boxcar]

That .400 mark could very well be true talent. Minor league BABIP isn't the same as major league. If a guy can run or square up a baseball, then they'll probably BABIP .350+. If a guy can do both, then they'll probably push .400+ as a true minor league talent level. Look at what Trout's were.

 

That's true, but I wouldn't hang my hat on it after less than 600 PAs. People in the scouting business overreact like crazy to small samples. Hell, that other article from Law where he explicitly states that how guys looked over like 10 ABs would cause them to slide down his lists.

 

I wouldn't complain, just makes drafting in fantasy so iffy because prospect rankings are volatile.

[Angrioter]

[DuckDuckGose]

It's tool syndrome. People don't know how to properly weigh the significance of tools, they see an 80 or a 70 on a guy's speed tool and all of a sudden he's getting ranked highly because he has a true "impact" tool. Obviously everyone understands that hit and hit/power are probably more important than speed, but I think when it comes to guys with plus-plus speed, people let the hypothetical upside blind them too much against the probable downside. I'd probably rather have a guy with a 50 hit tool and a 40 run, as opposed to a guy with a 40 hit tool and a 70 run (all else being roughly equal).

 

Yes, you are the only one who thinks about the whole tool package and how those tools translate to the majors. I don't think anyone would want Hamilton just because hes fast. He does a lot of things very well and can create a positive run differential on both sides of the ball in a variety of ways. Sure, he lacks power but if he can get on base he'll create a lot of runs.

[KingKat]

Keith Law Blog

Aaron Sanchez | RHP | Toronto Blue Jays

The Blue Jays' top prospect had an up-and-down year around minor injuries and a failed experiment with a sinker, but Toronto could at least look at his premium stuff and feel confident that he was advancing toward a spot near the top of their major league rotation. Unfortunately, Sanchez's delivery has gone backward in the past year, with a shorter-than-ever stride and a very upright release that causes his fastball to stay up and hurts his command of all pitches.

 

Wow even Keith Law is turning on Sanchez. He was basically the only one who considered him a top prospect in the first place.

[SAAviour]

I wonder if we could work Romero into an Uggla/Phillips ugly contract deal.

[KingKat]

I wonder if we could work Romero into an Uggla/Phillips ugly contract deal.

 

Romero for Uggla? Uggla can't field on turf, is nearly JPA level bad at getting on base and is 33 but he still might deliver more value than Romero.

[DuckDuckGose]

Wow even Keith Law is turning on Sanchez. He was basically the only one who considered him a top prospect in the first place.

 

I don't know if turning is the right word. He's still in love with his CB and easy plus FB velo but, he's starting to see the same red flags that others have pointed out since he was drafted. TBH after his performance this year Sanchez's stock should be sown. He needs to show better control and stay healthy. Every year he remains in the minors fails to significantly improve in both of those areas his stock will drop. Still a great arm but, he needs to start putting the package together.

[Angrioter]

Uggla 26M/2Ys is worst option than RickyRo 15M/2Ys