On the Value of "Worthless" Wins

[froston]

The Blue Jays were supposed to be really good. Preseason World Series odds had them at the top of the pile, listed as something like 8-1 favourites to win everything in 2013.

 

The Blue Jays should have been really good. Preseason projection systems like ZIPS and Steamer pegged them as a top 5 MLB team, prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

The Blue Jays are not very good. Whether this is due to a previously overrated roster, a terrible amount of bad luck, or a bit of both, is a subject for another post. The reason for ineptitude aside, the Blue Jays won’t even finish .500 this year, and they might be bad enough to finish with a top 10 pick in the 2014 draft (which would give them two protected picks in the top 11 of a supposedly deep draft, since they have a compensation pick at #11 for not signing Phil Bickford).

 

This is that point in a lost year where lots of spectators will start cheering for losses from their favourite team. A win gets the Blue Jays nothing, aside from maybe a small amount of pride, while a loss gets the Blue Jays a little bit closer to a lofty pick in next summer’s draft, and hopefully, a premium impact prospect. A win is worthless and a loss has value. If you’re a fan of the Blue Jays that doesn’t suffer from extreme myopia, you should want the team to go into full tank mode.

 

So by going 6-2 in the their last 8 games while giving regular playing time to four or five players that spent most of the year in Buffalo, the Blue Jays are seemingly finding yet another way to lose in the big picture. They lost all year long while they should have been winning, and now they’re winning when it’s probably in their best interest to lose. The team has already disappointed most of their fanbase, all that’s left is to let down the fans like this: (link)

 

But it’s not that simple.

 

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Read more here: http://frostonball.wordpress.com/2013/09/03/on-the-value-of-worthless-wins/

 

I got 125 views on my first blog post (about Tom Robson), most of which probably came from here. Thanks guys!

 

Follow be on the twitter for more stuff, if you want: @Froston_Ball

[DickeyJohnsonWang]

The Blue Jays should have been really good. Preseason projection systems like ZIPS and Steamer pegged them as a top 5 MLB team, prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

Preseason projection systems like ZIPS and Steamer pegged them as a top 5 MLB team, prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

win close to 90 games. (link)

 

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[froston]

The Blue Jays should have been really good. Preseason projection systems like ZIPS and Steamer pegged them as a top 5 MLB team, prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

Preseason projection systems like ZIPS and Steamer pegged them as a top 5 MLB team, prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

prognosticating that they would win close to 90 games. (link)

 

win close to 90 games. (link)

 

(link)

 

(link)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

(link)

 

Thanks for the, um.... input?

[TBJ12]

I enjoyed the article, title and all.

[oakville69]

Do you trust that AA can build a better team with a draft pick a few spots higher? The team has trouble signing its fist round picks.

 

I think finishing strong helps AA convince Rogers to increase the budget for 2014. Some of the kids could get starting jobs in 2014 or be used as trade bait to get a better C & starting pitcher .

 

A few years ago the team was afraid to call up Brett Lawrie for service time issues & he broke his hand in a minor league game. He ended up not showing up till August 2011.

 

The jays need a minimum budget of 125 -150 million during the 2013-2015 window if they want to play competitive baseball in September.

[John_Havok]

 

I think finishing strong helps AA convince Rogers to increase the budget for 2014. Some of the kids could get starting jobs in 2014 or be used as trade bait to get a better C & starting pitcher .

 

A few years ago the team was afraid to call up Brett Lawrie for service time issues & he broke his hand in a minor league game. He ended up not showing up till August 2011.

 

The jays need a minimum budget of 125 -150 million during the 2013-2015 window if they want to play competitive baseball in September.

 

The jays are going to be in the 140 million dollar range as it is with very little personnel changes due to raises of existing players, so unless they are able to save significant money via trade, expecting huge additions with even 150 million payroll doesn't make much sense.

[Howard Roark]

Good job man, that was an enjoyable read.