2014 MLB Draft: An Early Look

[ace3113]

College prospects weekend stats:

 

 

[ace3113]

With my pre-season favorite Aiken now likely gone by our pick Freeland's my new guy at one of our picks. He might be this year's Andrew Heaney. I've only seen a little bit of him, but scouting reports are comparing him to Chris Sale. I think that's more in terms of his size, fastball velo from the left side, and his arm action potentially pushing him to the bullpen. Personally he doesn't remind me of Sale from my viewings, but I think he has a ton of potential. Right now at 9-11 I hoping for one of Finnegan, Freeland, Holmes, Zimmer, Gordon, Ortiz and maybe Toussaint. I also like Gettys, but he's having a pretty poor start to the spring, and he's falling down some boards so 9 and 11 may be a reach for him.

[ace3113]

Ace, How has Ryan Kellogg being doing in College?

 

He was pretty dominant statistically last season in his Fresh year. He's eligible for the draft next year I think. I haven't really paid attention to him much. Last time I heard his stuff was pretty much the same, but he's still so big and projectable. If his stuff takes a step forward next year he could pull a Freeland/Heaney. Right now he's mostly a pitchabillity lefty with a three pitch mix, size and projection. I like his hook though. Nice sweeping 11-5 curve.

[ace3113]

Still a long way to go but I'd be happy if it turned out like this.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

 

9. Grant Holmes

11. Bradley Zimmer

 

Prefer either Finnegan or Freeland to Zimmer, but I do like Zimmer in his own right.

[Caper]

Still a long way to go but I'd be happy if it turned out like this.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

 

9. Grant Holmes

11. Bradley Zimmer

 

Prefer either Finnegan or Freeland to Zimmer, but I do like Zimmer in his own right.

 

 

 

Ace... would you take the 2 top short stop prospects? Nick Gordon and Trea Turner?

[GD]

Still a long way to go but I'd be happy if it turned out like this.

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft

 

I'm not gonna get into the draft fully for another month but as of now, I'm hoping for:

 

9: Aaron Nola/Bradley Zimmer

11: Trea Turner

 

9: Alex Jackson

11: Dylan Cease

 

But I haven't heard anything about Nick Gordon or anything. Also, how's Gareth Morgan looking?

[ace3113]

Ace... would you take the 2 top short stop prospects? Nick Gordon and Trea Turner?

 

I'd be ok with Gordon. It kind of makes me regret us not taking JP Crawford last year, who people consider the better prospect, but I wasn't that high on Crawford last year so I missed on him too. Gordon has the potential to be a 5-tool shortstop with plus-plus speed and plus arm strength. Pretty much everyone expects him to stick at short and he should be above average there at least. His only short tool right now is his power, but reports are he's getting stronger and driving the ball more this spring. So yeah, I like him and wouldn't be upset if we took him. If his hit tool falters he's also a pretty good pitcher (low 90s fastball, easy arm action, potential plus curve like his dad), so he can fall back on that like Casey Kelly did, that gives him 2 chances to succeed in theory.

 

I'm not a big fan of Turner. I don't think he sticks at short long term. I don't see an impact bat either. There are reports that his speed hasn't come all the way back after his leg injury and that it's playing like a 60 tool instead of an 80 in games, which is a concern since that's his carrying tool. Maybe he can move to centerfield if he can't stick at short and still have decent value with the bat and speed. But with the questions on the bat I'd pretty much have to be certain he sticks at short to take him in the top 10.

[ace3113]

Also, how's Gareth Morgan looking?

 

I recall reading that he's looked better at the plate in some of the tournaments he's played in, but hasn't really been hitting for a lot of in game power, which is his best tool. His raw power is as good as anyone's though.

[ace3113]

Oh yeah, one name you guys should keep in mind since AA and company love athletes: Monte Harrison. He's a 5 star football recruit with loud tools. Think Michael Gettys loud (maybe just a little short of Gettys). Big athletic frame (6'3 200), plus speed (6.65), plus-plus arm (97mph), plus raw power. The difference is he's actually been hitting this spring, which is giving him a lot of helium.

 

Top level defensive tools in centerfield, big range and bigger arm strength, chance to be an elite level defender. Right handed hitter, aggressive hitter who swings hard, hard stride to the ball affects timing and balance at times, line drive swing plane, present gap to gap power with more power to come. Still young as a hitter and defensive ahead of his offense at present. Tremendous three-sport athlete whose baseball skills are a bit behind his peers but plays hard and enjoys the game.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/early-draft-preview-high-school-best-tools/

 

Early Draft Preview: High School Best Tools

 

Standout tools in high school, based on votes from major league scouting directors.

 

HIGH SCHOOL

 

BEST ATHLETE: Nick Gordon, Olympia HS, Orlando. Big league bloodlines and wiry build make Gordon capable of producing plus times in the 60-yard dash and highlight reel plays at shortstop.

Other candidates: Monte Harrison, Lee’s Summit West (Mo.) HS; Michael Gettys, Gainesville (Ga.) HS; Jacob Gatewood, Clovis (Calif.) HS

 

BEST HITTER: Alex Jackson, Rancho Bernardo, Escondido, Calif. From a powerful body, Jackson unleashes plus bat speed, works inside the ball well and drives the ball up the middle with elite exit velocity.

Other candidates: Forrest Wall, Orangewood Christian HS, Winter Park, Fla.; Gordon; Braxton Davidson, Roberson HS, Asheville, N.C.

 

BEST POWER: Gatewood. Long, lean 6-foot-4 build and special hands create at least 70-grade raw power capable of jaw-dropping power displays in batting practice.

Other candidates: Gareth Morgan, North Toronto (Ont.) SS; Jackson; Davidson

 

BEST SPEED: Gettys. Gettys brings rare explosiveness as a powerful runner who gets up to up to full speed quickly.

Other candidates: Jeren Kendall, Holmen (Wisc.) HS; Anfernee Seymour, Elev8 Sports Institute, Delray Beach, Fla.; Carl Chester, Lake Brantley, Longwood, Fla.; Derek Hill, Elk Grove (Calif.) HS

 

BEST DEFENDER: Milton Ramos, American Heritage, Hialeah Gardens, Fla. A defensive wizard with supreme body control, Ramos has elite actions and quickness with an above-average arm and hands.

Other candidates: Hill; Gordon

 

BEST INFIELD ARM: Gordon. With an arm capable of touching 94 on the mound, Gordon also shows elite zip and carry.

Other candidates: Gatewood; Michael Chavis, Sprayberry HS, Marietta, Ga.

 

BEST OUTFIELD ARM: Gettys. His fastball has touched the mid-90s and he threw 100 mph from the outfield this summer.

Other candidates: Harrison; Morgan; Roberto Gonzalez, University HS, Orlando.

 

BEST FASTBALL: Tyler Kolek, Shepherd (Texas) HS. With minimal effort, Kolek can run his fastball into the upper 90s and touch 99 mph.

Other candidates: Dylan Cease, Milton (Ga.) HS, Grant Holmes, Conway (S.C.) HS, Sean Reid-Foley, Sandalwood HS, Jacksonville

 

BEST SECONDARY PITCH: Kodi Medeiros, Waiakea HS, Hilo, Hawaii (Slider). Medeiros’ low arm slot gives his wipeout slider rare depth and tilt, drawing at least plus grades at its best.

Other candidates: Jake Godfrey (curveball), Providence Catholic, New Lenox, Ill.; Aiken (curve); Keaton McKinney, Ankeny (Iowa) HS (changeup); Kolek (curve)

 

BEST COMMAND: Brady Aiken, Cathedral Catholic, San Diego. With clean, effortless mechanics and good extension out front, the athletic Aiken can locate to every quadrant of the zone.

Other candidates: Justus Sheffield, Tullahoma (Tenn.) HS; Medeiros; Mac Marshall, Parkview HS, Lilburn, Ga.

 

CLOSEST TO THE MAJORS: Kolek. Workhorse build, premium fastball and excellent makeup could allow Kolek to move quickly for a high school hurler.

Other candidates: Aiken; Jackson; Gordon

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/draft-tracker-april-11/

Monte Harrison, of, Lee’s Summit West (Mo.) High

 

After the first event of the summer showcase circuit last June, Perfect Game National, a very sharp evaluator made a statement that looks quite prescient 10 months later.

 

“Monte Harrison is going to go in the first, he just doesn’t know it yet,” the scout said. “Athletes like that go off the board quick.”

 

A plus-plus athlete who has had a strong start to the spring, the Lee’s Summit West (Mo.) outfielder is one of the top athletes in the class and committed to Nebraska as a wide receiver after scoring 28 touchdowns and accruing more than 1,500 all-purpose yards as a senior. In basketball, Harrison, who reportedly has a 41 inch vertical leap and averaged more than 15 points a game as a senior, has an impressive reel of highlight dunks.

 

Harrison has a loud set of tools that allow evaluators to dream on what he could become after dedicating himself to baseball.

 

“It’s hard not to dream on the premium athletes like Monte,” an American League scout said. “You never know what they are going to turn into but he could be a perennial All-Star if everything comes together. There’s almost nothing he can’t do on the baseball field.”

 

Given his skill set and dual-sport commitment to Nebraska, Harrison has drawn athletic comparisons to Bubba Starling. Despite his limited time on the baseball field, Harrison has drawn praise for his baseball instincts, leaving one high-level evaluator to say Harrison has at least plus-plus instincts.

 

The 6-foot-2, 201-pound Harrison is a physical specimen with lean, powerful muscle on his frame. Harrison is a plus runner in the 60-yard dash, although his speed played closer to average on the showcase circuit with a swing that left him slower out of the box. But he has posted plus times this spring. He is a long-striding, gliding runner whose speed really plays underway and takes multiple bases. His arm is one of the best in the class, consistently showing plus, if not plus-plus. His physical attributes and athleticism give the chance to be a plus defender.

 

Although he showed some swing and miss at Tournament of Stars last summer, Harrison made a surprising amount of contact on the showcase circuit given how many baseball reps he had compared to his showcase peers. The righthanded hitter has at least plus bat speed but his larger stride occasionally left him off-balance in game action, but he showed impressive hand-eye coordination and barrel control. Harrison’s hit tool will be watched closely this spring by evaluators as the only remaining tool that is not confidently in the plus category.

 

Although his power was mostly to the gaps on the showcase circuit, Harrison has 70-grade raw power, according to one evaluator.

 

Harrison has a gregarious, energetic personality and was one of the most well-liked players among his teammates on the showcase circuit. He combines with righthander Alex Lange to give Lee’s Summit West one of the top high school teammate duos in the country.

 

Michael Chavis, 3b, Sprayberry High, Marietta, Ga.

 

In a class where many of the top position players face questions about their hitting ability, Sprayberry High (Marietta, Ga.) infielder Michael Chavis has shown an advanced hit with power ability, pushing him up draft boards as high as a 5-foot-10, 192-pound righthanded hitter without burner speed can ascend.

 

“I saw him take batting practices three times and I am not going back because there is nothing else to see in BP to impress me,” a National League scout said. “He hit 15 of 30 swings either in the road or over the road at Sprayberry. His eighth home run in BP hit the tower in deep right field, he ricocheted off the light tower. He went out three times to straight-away center field and bounced three over in right center field.”

 

“Then in the game the pitcher threw a breaking ball to the outside part of the plate and he hit a home run off the right-field scoreboard,” the scout said. “He singled back over the shortstop’s head and nearly took the pitcher’s glove off. He is so strong in his hands and wrists.”

 

Chavis, who won the home run derby at the Perfect Game All-American Classic, has plus raw power and explosive plus bat speed from a compact stroke. He rarely swung and missed in the zone on the showcase circuit, as nearly all of his whiffs came when he expanded the zone.

 

Chavis has an above-average arm that can throw from different angles and impressive body control with first-step quickness. His coordination was on display during the first round of infield at the East Coast Pro Showcase, when he backhanded a ball to his right before smoothly and quickly transferring the ball between his legs. Then a few grounders later he made one of the most impressive barehand plays of the event on a slow roller. He is currently a high school shortstop but figures to move off the position.

 

“I think that his best fit is at third base,” the scout said. “I don’t think his lower body is going to let him play second base. Turning the double play, the hands and feet just don’t work as well as you would like. If range was the only thing keeping Chavis off of short then I would put him at second. But there are other things preventing him from playing shortstop. One of them is the lower body.”

 

He is an above-average runner in the 60-yard dash who regularly posted times between 4.2- 4.35 on the showcase circuit. Chavis has drawn comparisons to Jedd Gyorko (although he runs better) because of his advanced hit tool and skill set. The Georgia commit who is older for the draft class is a high-energy, high-effort player with a gamer’s mentality who really hustles on the field.

 

Jeff Brigham, rhp, Washington

 

Brigham, a reshirt junior who did not pitch last year, has shown well in his first season since Tommy John surgery as one of the top Sunday starters in the country for a team that has pushed into the top 10.

 

He came out showing velocity early in the season.

 

“He came out at 92-96 mph that first weekend and that really got people’s attention and got him on the radar,” Washington pitching coach Jason Kelly said.

 

Brigham has been 90-95 in recent starts, sitting 90-93, according to scouts. He had reportedly been up to 98 before his surgery and the coaching staff said he has hit that on some guns this spring.

 

Brigham does not fit the traditional mold of a 6-foot, 190-pound righthander with a quick arm. Working from the far first-base side of the rubber, Brigham relies heavily on his power sinker from an arm slot at or a tick below three-quarters. He has been a groundball-oriented hurler with a 2.4 groundout-flyout ratio on the season. Some scouts have seen starts where he threw an estimated 90 percent fastballs, more than three-fourths of which are two-seamers.

 

“I would say going into this weekend he is probably at 75-78 percent fastball range,” Kelly said. “If you were to picture him as a big leaguer, he is that Tim Hudson-type guy with heavy sink. He throws 92-94 mph sinkers.”

 

His peripherals do not support his 1.77 ERA, but he has thrown strikes effectively with 2.0 walks per-nine. Yet he has a very low strikeout rate at 4.1 per-nine, which is 12.3 percent of all hitters.

 

“I feel like once he develops the four-seamer and it is something he can go to at 96-97 mph that he can elevate, he is going to have the ability to strike people. But he is not there yet,” Kelly said.

 

The growth of his offspeed offerings will be key developmental points of emphasis, with his breaking ball presently his top secondary pitch.

 

“He is going to have a major league average slider and who knows? As he develops it could be an above-average pitch,” Kelly said. “When it is really good it is in the 84-86 mph range. That is the number we want. At times when he gets tired it is an 80-83 mph offering with depth. It is not a true slider but it is not a slurve. It has a chance to be really good. The slider is ahead of the changeup.”

 

Brigham is a well-built 190 pounds with broad shoulders and strength throughout his frame. He is an impressive athlete.

 

“He is great athlete that was a very good high school basketball player and he can dunk,” Kelly said. “He is one of our fastest sprinters. We run the timed mile when he came back in January and he ran a mid-four minute mile. He has great kinetic awareness. I would think he is a 6.6 runner.”

 

There is a belief in scouts circles that Brigham could be a split-camp prospect because of his size, well below-average strikeout rate and nascent offspeed stuff.

[Caper]

 

Damn Wtf Kolek this guy

 

Is there any chance he doesn't reach the MLB (pending his arm doesn't fall)? Reaching 103 MPH in high school is just wow...

 

Ace, do you think Kolek is a starter or reliever long term?

 

 

There is no way this guy doesn't get TJS.

[ace3113]

 

Damn Wtf Kolek this guy

 

Is there any chance he doesn't reach the MLB (pending his arm doesn't fall)? Reaching 103 MPH in high school is just wow...

 

Ace, do you think Kolek is a starter or reliever long term?

 

I think he's a starter. He's got the size and durability and the easy delivery/arm action. His command looks to be above average. It will depend on the development of his secondaries, though reports on his slider are positive.

[ace3113]

Perfect Game chat from today. I missed it so I didn't have a chance to ask any questions. I've quoted pretty much all the important snippets from the chat.

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9743

 

Comment From Josh

Do you think Alex Jackson can stick at C long term?

 

David Rawnsley:

I think that if he really worked at it and was bought in, along with the organization he signs with, he could stick at catcher long term. That being said, we've seen the Bryce Harper model with the bat and right field. I feel that's the direction we'll be going.

 

Comment From Josh

We've heard about Michael Chavis' bat speed, but how do you project his hit and power tools going forward?

 

Jheremy Brown:

What stands out about Chavis and his bat is how well the hit and power plays in game and not just showcase settings. He has continued to swing it well this spring and has added more strength to his already athletic frame. Athleticism allows him to standout at SS in high school but the arm strength and power tool fit nicely at 3B.

 

Comment From Gary G.

Which pitcher’s changeup impresses you the most?

 

David Rawnsley:

Aaron Nola had a plus change up in high school and its only got better at LSU. Dominant pitch. For high schoolers, Keaton McKinney's is the best in my book. Learned it from Jeremy Hellickson back in Iowa and it was a natural for him.

 

Comment From Brian

As a hitter, who does Forrest Wall compare closest to from past drafts classes? Does he have the best hit tool in this class?

 

David Rawnsley:

Wall certainly has one of the top Hit tools in the class. He combines bat speed with hitting instincts and outstanding pro level mechanics. For the big picture I saw someone drop a Todd Walker comp on him the other day and loved it.

 

Comment From M. Jones

How have two of the top Northeast HS arms Scott Blewett & Joe Gatto looked so far this spring? Is it too early to get a full read on HS arms that have only had one or two starts?

 

Jheremy Brown:

Blewett and his HS are on their way down to Florida for their Spring Break trip and could see his velo jump from the 89-93 he showed in his first outing this spring. Gatto's reports have been just as positive and I'll be seeing him in another week or two. Don't forget about Austin DeCarr at Salisbury who has been up to 95/96 and Bryan Dobzanski down at Delsea (NJ) who I was told was 91-95 in his first start coming out of wrestling season. So the velocity is showing up for these NE arms and will only continue to progress as the spring continues up here.

 

Comment From Seth

Jerry, who would you take #1 overall if the draft was today?

 

David Rawnsley:

Seth, I'm not sure if Jerry will be able to join us today for some family reasons. He's a high ceiling guy, i can tell you that. As Tyler Kolek sits atop our rankings today, that's who I would guess he'd answer.

Comment From Joe

Is Jacob Bukauskas a top 25 pick at this point?

 

David Rawnsley:

Joe, hard to tell since he's so "fresh" on the scene as a reclassified 2014, but it's hard to say "no" when you hear a guy is throwing 94-97 and touching 100. Last summer I saw him a couple of times and he was generally 88-90 with a very good Slider/Change combo that had the chance to be plus. I'd say he'll end up in the top 25 come June 5.

 

Comment From J.Homes

Was Tyler kolek better than Kohl Stewart at the same stage?

 

David Rawnsley:

Different types of pitchers and athletes but I would say Yes at this point. The velocity is pretty incredible and the control is impressive as well considering. Stewart had a better breaking ball at the same point. Last week a Texas scout told me about Kolek "No way he gets past the Twins pick". Twins fans would certainly appreciate Stewart and Kolek in their system!

Comment From Chris

Has AJ Reed taken the title of best power hitting college prospect over Schwarber?

 

David Rawnsley:

Not that I've heard. If anyone is going to take that title, Chris, it's likely to be Casey Gillespie at Wichita State. Lots of attention in his direction right now.

 

Comment From Daniel

Thoughts on Keaton McKinney and Luke Bonfield? Do they make it to Arkansas or sign with a pro team this summer? Also, any other draft risks for the Hogs?

 

David Rawnsley:

I've seen both McKinney and Bonfield this spring and both are doing what they've shown they can....McKinney 90-94 with the plus change and Bonfield driving the ball all over the park. No way to tell if they are signable or not, PG doesn't speculate in that.

Comment From Greg

Do college pitchers and pros get strikeouts in different ways? Is that why the college K leader Imhoff isn't in 1st round projections?

 

Todd Gold:

Certainly. Imhof does get some first round interest, though he's more likely to be a 2nd rounder at this point. He gets a significant number of swings and misses off of his fastball through a combination of deception and movement. Pro hitters are going to make more contact against him than college hitters, and while a lot of it will be weaker contact, it will cut down on his strikeout rate significantly. He lacks a true out pitch at present, the breaking ball is a solid pitch but won't be a putaway pitch in pro ball unless it improves. All that said, he's a likely left handed major league starter, hence the early round interest.

 

Comment From Sam

If the draft were held today, who would you take #1 overall?

 

AllanSimpson:

It seems to be a 3-horse race at this point, with Brady Aiken, Tyler Kolek and Carlos Rodon. Aiken and Kolek have outperformed Rodon, and flashed better stuff/command more consistently, but it would be a mistake to dismiss Rodon from being squarely in the mix to go No. 1.

 

Comment From Rusty

What is the projections on Cody Reed from Alabama? I have heard mixed reports on him.

 

David Rawnsley:

Rusty, I haven't heard many mixed reports on Reed. They all seem to indicate that he's taken a big step forward, topping out at 95 regularly with a hammer, and that he's posting absurd performance numbers. Second round is what I've heard from multiple sources.

 

Comment From CTJohn

Marvin Gorgas has elite arm strength and velocity but scouts might questions his size. Are there any pro comps size and velocity wise (with Marcus Stroman being one obvious choice)?

 

Jheremy Brown:

You mentioned the comp that often comes to my mind. I've been able to see Marvin a handful of times last spring and the progress he made between then and Jupiter (stuff wise, command, and mechanics) was tremendous. He shows three pitches that are at least average with a good chance showing more.

 

Comment From Jeremy

Do you think Alex Verdugo and Jack Flaherty are pitchers or position players at the next level? They are two interesting prospect i love.

 

Todd Gold:

Good question. I like them both better on the mound personally, but it's not unanimous among scouts and what each of the players prefer to do will have a significant impact on their draft stock.

 

Comment From Brian

Will Michael Getty’s hit tool be a significant enough of a concern to keep him out of the top 15?

 

David Rawnsley:

I've read that Getty has been hitting much better in the last few weeks but that calls into question who has actually scene him during that time. Right now I wouldn't slot him in the top 15 picks due to the questions about his hitting.

 

Comment From Ben

Of this draft class, who locates their pitches better than the rest?

 

David Rawnsley:

Ben, I think Aaron Nola has that distinction nailed among the college class. Brady Aiken just hasn't improved his raw stuff, he's showing advanced pitchability as well....good reasons why he's in the #1 overall mix.

 

Comment From J.Homes

Touki Toussaint has electric stuff, why scouts not high on him? Does he have potential to be a top-10 pick

 

Todd Gold:

They are high on him, and yes he does have a chance to go top 10.

 

Comment From Trey

What is Dylan Cease's current status? Is Tommy John in his future, ala Lucas Giolito? Someone with Top 10 stuff who falls just a bit, or will he fall significantly further than Giolito?

 

David Rawnsley:

I haven't heard of Dylan returning to the mound yet, Trey. If I were him I certainly wouldn't rush it, either, Careers are called "Careers" because they hopefully last a long time. He would fall into a different category than Giolito, however. The big Californian was one of the most iconic high school pitching prospects in the last decade, on par with Tyler Kolek in many ways. Cease is awfully good, but not that overall level.

 

Comment From PJ

I know the usual suspects talked about are from the HS and 4 year schools, but anyone out of the JUCO ranks impressing this year?

 

AllanSimpson:

This appears to be a down year from a JC standpoint, unlike in the past few years when a JC talent often worked his way into the first round. Best as I can determine, the best JC talent still appears to be Blinn (Texas) JC RHP Robbie Dickey, who tops out at 94-95. He's a third-fourth rounder. Seminole State (Fla.) RHP Jake Cosart and Oxnard (Calif.) JC RHP Patrick Weigel throw harder, but aren't as polished as Dickey. We had those three as the top JC guys at the start of the year, and it still looks like it ranks that way, but I'm our JC guy at PG and I'll be bearing down on the top JC prospects next week. There will probably be 20-25 players in the first 10 rounds or so.

 

Comment From Kola

There hasn't been much attention on Kodi Medeiros lately. Any reports on how he is throwing or how he has looked this spring? Could he jump into the top half of the first round?

 

David Rawnsley:

Kola, I think Medeiros is overlooked a bit due to his being out of the mainstream in Hawaii. Not that the scouts don't see him just as much as the other top guys, just that there isn't the media chatter. I still expect him to go in the 15-30 range. Chris Sale should have taught us that everyone doesn't have to have the same mechanics to be very good.

Comment From Greg

How about a turning Matt Chapman into a pitcher way Reds did with Lorenzen?

 

Todd Gold:

Lorenzen had extensive experience on the mound coming into the draft, Chapman has much less. Chapman has a plus plus arm at 3B, but I have no idea how it translates to the mound and if he'd be as good there as he is as a 3B prospect. It's a nice insurance policy to his profile if things don't work out but I doubt that any organizations are looking at that as Plan A with him.

 

Comment From Luis

Who's the top guy out of Puerto Rico this season? Where does he fit in draft?

 

David Rawnsley:

Just wrote up a draft focus on Alexis Pantojas that went on the website on Tuesday. Clearly the best guy for me on the Island this year. I think he goes 3rd-4th round, although I like him better than that.

 

Comment From Ellis

Luis Ortiz is supposed to have very good stuff but some kind of injury has prevented him from demonstrating his skills. What are your thoughts of his ceiling and is weight really an issue for him now that he has "figured it out"?

 

David Rawnsley:

Ellis, Ortiz has outstanding 1st round level stuff, including perhaps the best slider in the HS class. I don't think the weight is an issue, either, as you have to respect a young man who lost it and got focused on his future career. The purported injury is something I don't know much about, a cross checker friend told me it was nothing.

 

Comment From Greg

Trea Turner - what's he project as right now?

 

David Rawnsley:

Starting MLB shortstop long term, 8-14 pick in the draft for me.

 

Comment From Jason

Thoughts on Rice pitcher Zech Lemond? Would you be wary of drafting him considering the history of Rice pitchers?

 

David Rawnsley:

I haven't got a recent update on Lemond's arm. I think each individual case with an injury will be treated as that, an individual case, but it is hard to ignore Rice's track record. I know the scouting community is very aware of it.

 

Comment From Greg

So whats the scouting report on Kolek fastball other than velocity?

 

David Rawnsley:

He throws it 100 mph, throws it from a slightly cross body release that isn't comfortable for RHH'ers and throws it for strikes. Not sure if the finer points of movement apply here to be honest, Greg. That's for the professional pitching coaches to tinker with.

 

Comment From John

Does bukauskas have quality secondaries

 

Jheremy Brown:

Yes, strong feel for both a SL and CH which he mixes well with his now mid to upper 90s fastball.

 

Comment From Jeremy

On shortshop prospect, is Josh Morgan as the same level as Milton Ramos or Alexis Pantojas? Or under?

 

Todd Gold:

Very different players. Defensively it's Pantojas by a significant margin in my book (and that's not a knock on Morgan) right now. But it depends on what you're looking for in a prospect, Morgan has the higher upside as a potential power hitting shortstop but he has a lower chance of reaching the big leagues.

 

Comment From Brian

Does C Jaxson Reetz have a chance to be one of NE first ever high school 1st round draft picks?

 

David Rawnsley:

Brian, I've seen Jakson once this spring and will see him against the top team in the state next Tuesday...I expect there will be tons of heat in there as he will probably be facing a 90 mph 2015 kid. That being said, I can't see Jakson as a first rounder. Second rounder Yes, if he's signable.

 

Comment From Victor

Who is this year's Hunter Harvey? A pitcher that will go later than he should and seems to have top of the rotation stuff that many will not recognize.

 

David Rawnsley:

I wouldn't say that Harvey went later than he should, it was where he had shown he was based on how little the national scouting community had seen him. That being said, there is so much depth in the HS pitching class that there will be pitchers who act like top half first rounders when they go out but were picked late 1st/comp. Touki Toussaint, Sean Reid-Foley and Kodi Medeiros all fit into that category.

 

Remember Robert Stephenson, one of the best pitching prospects in baseball with the Reds, went late first round. That's where plenty of HS pitchers land, as Harvey did..

Comment From Youppi!

Any Canadians besides Gareth Morgan generating Top 10 Round draft buzz?

 

Jheremy Brown:

Zachary Pop is the top arm in the 14 class from Canada and a very interesting one at that. He topped at 93 mph at our HS Showdown and held 91-92 from his difficult arm slot for the first couple of innings. Mitchell Robinson is a strong catcher with juice in his bat, as does 3B Robert Bykowski who should hit for enough power to stay at the hot corner.

Comment From Seth

Frankie, is there anything about Grant Holmes that makes you question his ability to remain a SP throughout his career?

 

David Rawnsley:

Absolutely nothing in my book, Seth. He is a solid athlete with a good delivery and throws three present pitches that all could be plus. Not sure what else anyone would want. I don't think teams would be talking about him in the top 10 if there was a hint that he wasn't a long term starter.

 

Comment From Chris

Are the concerns over Carlos Rodon's season warranted? Or is this just the norm for Rodon, that he's not a cold weather pitcher and not a fast starter? I've read that some scouts feel Rodon will be a consistent low 90's guy earlier than expected in his pro career.

 

David Rawnsley:

My personal scouting opinion is that the concerns over Rodon's season (more his stuff than his season) are warranted. Aaron Nola can be a consistent low 90's guy and be a successful big league starter with his command and change up. Even with the killer slider, Rodon doesn't have the command and feel of his stuff to be a #1/#2 type guy with a low 90's fastball.

 

Comment From Tom

Who is a ML player that is a comp. for Nick Gordon? What do you see his AVG/HR number being in MLB?

 

Todd Gold:

His brother Dee Gordon would be the layup here, but of non relatives Stephen Drew is probably the closest comp of current big leaguers.

 

Comment From Ellis

What top ranked SP do we have to worry the most about likely ending up in the bullpen, based on their skillsets?

 

David Rawnsley:

Ellis, I've frequently mentioned that I have issues with the overly premature classifying of pitchers as starter/relievers. I could say Kyle Freeland or Kodi Medeiros for their arm slot, but that would look pretty dumb while counting Chris Sale's Cy Young votes. I could say Brandon Finnegan as a 5-11 left hander, but old favorite Scott Kazmir has resurrected his career nicely. The list could go on and on.......bad area to get into IMO

 

Comment From Scott

Any word on who is advising the Top 4 projected picks at this time (Aiken, Kolek, Rodon, Hoffman)? I would have to assume Boras has at least a couple of them.

 

David Rawnsley:

Boras is advising Rodon from what I understand. I really don't know who is helping the other three. Don't pay nearly as much attention to that as I used to.

 

Comment From Garry

Isiah Gilliam reclassified as a 2014. What are his draft prospects looking like?

 

David Rawnsley:

Early reports on Gilliam are all over the board. We've seen him probably more than any scout has over the past two years and know he has two plus tools in his raw power and arm strength. But his hit tool has a long way to go and he doesn't have a true position at the moment, so there is lots of dreaming to do. The Major League Scouting Bureau put a top 3 round number on him, which seems very optimistic to us. I think he's better served going to college myself.

[ace3113]

If this guy makes it to our second round pick he's my top choice, but I doubt he falls that far.

 

Sky-high velos, sky-high interest

 

Earlier this week, it’s safe to say Jacob Bukauskas was trending. Twitter was on fire. Facebook was aglow. Text messages and good old-fashioned phone calls were tying up scouts’ and cross-checker’s mobile phones across the country. Heck, even the dying print media was, well, all atwitter.

 

The hyperbole had actually been building since late February when Bukauskas – a newly ordained class of 2014 right-handed pitcher at Stone Bridge High School in Ashburn, Va., and a University of North Carolina signee – participated in an indoor pitching session at Pinkman Baseball Academy in Sterling, Va.

 

Throwing in front of a gathering of scouts who had learned in January that Bukauskas would graduate from high school a year early and be eligible for the 2014 MLB June Amateur First-Year Player Draft, Bukauskas threw fastballs that registered, first, at 98 mph and finally at 99 mph. That was up from his previous high of 93 mph recorded at the 2013 Perfect Game Junior National Showcase in June.

 

And then it happened. This past Monday (April 14) while pitching against West Potomac High School (Va.), Bukauskas not only threw a seven-inning one-hitter with 18 strikeouts but according to reports had his fastball touch 100 mph on at least two occasions on several scouts’ radar guns. The social media floodgates officially flew open.

 

”Obviously, I’ve picked up a little bit of velocity, so that’s definitely been going well,” Bukauskas told PG when asked about his eventful spring during a telephone interview this week. “The command on all my pitches has been great this far, so overall things are going really well and I’m just really humbled by all the attention I’ve been receiving.”

 

Perfect Game vice president of player personnel and scouting David Rawnsley is among those in the national scouting community who caught wind of Bukauskas’ increased velocity this spring.

 

“It’s pretty amazing the velocity gains we’ve heard about with Bukauskas, as he was a guy who primarily threw in the 88-90 (mph) range last summer – although he did top out at 93 at the PG Junior National,” Rawnsley related. “His defining characteristic was that his slider and changeup were potential plus-pitches and he had the ability to use them with precision, even coming out of his then-sophomore year.”

 

The gains he’s showed in his velocity this spring didn’t happen by accident. Bukauskas worked extensively over the winter with his high school head coach, Sam Plank; his high school pitching coach John Griffin; with John Pinkman, who runs the Pinkman Baseball Academy and is his personal pitching coach; and with his father, Ken Bukauskas.

 

The first thing the group did, according to Jacob Bukauskas, was eliminate a lot of the running from his training regimen, since that was counter-productive to his efforts to add muscle weight. It was an effective strategy as Bukauskas put on about 25 pounds and is now listed at 6-foot-1, 195-pounds, up from the 6-1, 170 he registered at the Perfect Game Underclass All-American Games in San Diego in August.

 

He attributes his gains in velocity not only to his added weight but also to a strength program put together by Plank and his father, Ken. Most of the added strength and muscle is in his legs, and he also credits some assistance he received from several Stone Bridge High School football players.

 

“Some of the football players showed me around the weight room a little bit and they showed me that the ‘squat rack’ was definitely the place for a pitcher to be,” Bukauskas said. “That’s where I spent most of my time this winter and most of the weight has been added to my legs, but I did a little bit of upper body stuff, too.”

 

And that is where a pitcher has to exercise some caution.

 

“I’ve got great coaches around here that have told me that I need to be careful when doing upper body stuff just for obvious reasons – you don’t want to hurt your shoulder or your back or anything like that,” Bukauskas said. “With the upper body lifting, it was just mostly a lot of light weight stuff. But it was with the squats where we definitely focused a lot of our energy on, and I attribute most of the (added) velocity to my legs.”

 

He also credits Pinkman for helping him tweak his mechanics ever so slightly, which allowed him to pick up some velocity as well as improving his command of off-speed pitches. And he doesn’t want to down-play the influence of his father.

 

“My dad, he’s kind of the guy I can always lean on to talk about everything that’s going on with the decision that will be coming up soon,” Bukauskas said. “He helps me keep my head on straight and focus on baseball, and keep my mind on schoolwork and everything else I need to focus on; he tells me the other stuff will take of itself if I keep doing the right things. He’s my quote-unquote ‘rock’ that I lean on all the time for advice and stuff like that.”

 

The “decision” Bukauskas referred to is in regard to the upcoming draft. Major League Baseball implemented a new rule during the 2013 draft that makes it permissible for a high school student who has graduated after three years of coursework (instead of the customary four) to not only move onto college a year early but also become eligible for that year’s draft.

 

Bukauskas, who is 17 years old and won’t turn 18 until October, committed to North Carolina after his freshman year. He and his parents began talking with the UNC coaches about accelerating his studies so he could graduate a year early and get on campus in Chapel Hill in 2014 instead of 2015.

 

He had already got a head start on graduating early by taking high school-level foreign language classes while in middle school which freed-up class time once he was in high school for other courses. He also took a history class online over the summer.

 

“I’m extremely happy with that decision that we made to go ahead and do that, both as a baseball player and as a student,” Bukauskas said this week. “With the class work, if you put in the effort you can do it. I like to think of myself as a hard-working student – you don’t have to be the most talented academic student to be able to do it, you have to work really hard – and I attribute my ability to graduate in three years mostly to that.”

 

In what turned out to be Bukauskas’ senior season with Stone Bridge has been a dandy so far, with the Bulldogs winning nine of their first 10 games. As of early this week, Bukauskas was (unofficially) 4-0 and had not allowed an earned run while striking out 51 in 23 2/3 innings of work. Throwing 100 mph fastballs has a tendency to produce those kinds of numbers.

 

“Our team has been doing really, really well,” he said. “We’ve got a lot of young guys and it’s helping us to have a lot better season than we had last year.”

 

Bukauskas played in seven Perfect Game tournaments with the national champion EvoShield Canes in 2012-13 and was named to the all-tournament team at six of them. He also attended the PG Junior National Showcase and the PG Underclass All-American Games in both 2012 and 2013 and was named to the Top Prospect List at three of those four events.

 

Changing his graduating class may have deprived Bukauskas of one opportunity but when door closes another almost always opens. He is now ranked the No. 23 overall (college, junior college, high school) prospect in the upcoming June amateur draft.

 

“He was definitely on track to be a strong candidate for the 2014 Perfect Game All-American Classic. Now it seems as if he’s a strong candidate with his reclassification to become a first-round pick,” PG’s Rawnsley said. “It’s a good lesson for young pitchers on how important strengthening your core and lower body muscles are, whether you throw 80 miles-per-hour or 90 miles-per-hour.”

 

It’s ironic that Bukauskas decided to graduate from high school early only because he wanted to get to Chapel Hill as soon as possible, and now it’s likely he’ll never enroll in a class there, at least not this fall. When a high school prospect is projected as a first-rounder, options must be considered.

 

“(The draft) was always there but it was not nearly as much of a consideration as it is now, obviously” Bukauskas said. “It’s going to make for an interesting decision and as a family I know we’ll come to the right decision. I don’t think the reclassification has hurt me … and I’m extremely happy with the decision we’ve made. It’s pushed me to become a better baseball player and without that decision I don’t think I’d be in the same position I’m in right now.”

 

Whether he ends up at UNC or with an MLB organization, Bukuaskas sees his situation as a win-win in at least one very important regard.

 

“I’m mostly looking forward to working with some more experienced coaches that can help me with becoming more physically mature,” he said. “That’s one of the biggest things I’m looking forward to.”

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/top-college-prospects-by-the-numbers-midseason-update/

 

Top College Prospects By The Numbers: Midseason Update

 

With the midway point in the regular season in the rearview mirror, it’s time to take stock of the statistical performances of the top draft-eligible college players. Although the vagaries of small sample sizes still cloud the numbers at this juncture of the season and career numbers for players provide a great deal of information in addition to these two months of performance, these numbers are an important piece of the evaluation process for the top college players.

 

Every college player in the top 100 during the fall is included (minus injured players) and more than 30 players have been added to the list this spring, bringing the total to 127 players, all of which are in consideration to be drafted in a single-digit round. The top 10 percent in every category is highlighted in green, while the bottom 10 percent is highlighted in red. With 75 pitchers on the list and the benefit of rounding up, eight pitcher categories are highlighted, while five were for the 52 position players.

 

One thing to note is that quality of competition for these players can differ heavily in some cases. Especially for the pitchers, who only have at most nine starts on the season. A few favorable matchups against lesser-hitting teams can have an significant impact with so few starts at this point in the season.

 

Although East Carolina righthander Jeff Hoffman possesses electric stuff—some of the best stuff in the class with three potentially plus pitches—evaluators have expressed their concerns about his performance in recent weeks, given the range where his stuff makes him likely to be drafted. Hoffman, who entered the season with a career strikeout rate of 6.8 per nine innings, has increased his strikeout rate to 8.5 per nine with a strikeout-walk ratio of 2.9.

 

His numbers remain below the historical performance standards for college pitchers drafted in the top 10. The 15 college pitchers drafted in the top 10 from 2009-2013 averaged 10.1 strikeouts per nine, with the range spanning from 13.9 (Stephen Strasburg) to 8.4 (Mike Leake). Hoffman’s career rate is 7.2, which is 14 percent below the lowest rate in that group, Leake’s 8.4. His career walk rate of 2.9 per nine is 19 percent higher than the group’s median (2.47). His strikeout-walk ratio (2.47) is the second-lowest in the group, which averaged 3.80.

 

But as one evaluator said recently “the stuff is the stuff.”

 

A dynamic basestealer his first two years, North Carolina State shortstop Trea Turner’s speed has not impacted the game nearly as much this year as it did his first two years of college. Turner has had fewer opportunities to run this season (.389 OBP) than his first two years (.443 his first two seasons combined). His freshman year, when he stole 57 bases in 61 attempts, Turner attempted a steal nearly every game (0.97 per game). Turner, who was slowed by an ankle injury, stole 30 bases last year at a clip of 0.64 attempts per game. But that rate has fallen even further this season to 0.39 with 13 steals in 16 attempts. Turner has been shuffled among spots in the lineup throughout the season.

 

While Louisiana State control artist Aaron Nola’s walk rate this season (1.83 per nine) is actually significantly higher than his first two years (1.04), his strikeout rate has also increased significantly, by more than three strikeouts per nine to 11.8. His strikeout-walk ratio stands at 6.5, the sixth-highest rate among prospects, and his ERA (0.70) is the second-lowest of any starting pitcher.

 

Evansville lefthander Kyle Freeland is the sabermetric darling of pitchers from the first half of the season. He has the lowest walk rate at 1.8 percent of all batters faced. For perspective, the group average was 7.8 percent and the second-lowest rate is more than 70 percent higher at 3.1 percent (Vanderbilt righthander Adam Ravenelle and Wichita State righthander A.J. Ladwig). His strikeout rate (33.0 percent) is the fourth-highest among starting pitchers, giving him a strikeout-walk ratio of 18.8 that is more than seven times the group average (2.59). He produced these stats with a low-90s fastball and three offspeed pitches, including one of the best sliders in the class.

 

Although he is propped up by an unsustainable batting average on balls in play of .466, the highest of any hitter, San Francisco outfielder Bradley Zimmer is having one of the best statistical seasons of any prospect, ranking in the top four in all triple-slash categories at .415/.488/.667. Scouts questioned Zimmer’s power production entering the season because of his swing plane, but he has the seventh-highest isolated slugging (.252) despite playing in a pitcher’s park (80 park factor). With the third most steals (17), the only offensive aspect where he has not excelled has been controlling the strike zone with strikeout (14.3 percent) and walk rates (8.9 percent) barely below the median (13.1 percent and 10.9 percent, respectively).

 

Virginia first baseman/outfielder Mike Papi continues to demonstrate uncanny knowledge of the strike zone. He has walked in 20.5 percent of his plate appearances, the highest rate of any player and nearly twice the group median (10.9). He has also hit for power with an ISO of .202 in a pitcher’s park (80 PF).

 

Kentucky first baseman A.J. Reed, who has 25 extra-base hits, has hit for more power than any other draft prospect. Not only is Reed tied for the Division I lead in home runs (14), the lefthanded hitter has a Bondsian ISO of .400, which is .119 points higher than the second-highest ISO (Wichita State first baseman Casey Gillaspie). Reed has walked nearly as often (14.2 percent) as he has struck out (15.4).

 

UC Santa Barbara third baseman/outfielder Joey Epperson is dominating as a 23-year old against much younger competition and is emerging as a senior of interest. The NCAA batting average leader (.451/.528/.607) has demonstrated strong contact skills with the lowest strikeout rate of any hitter at 4.9 percent and has drawn more than two walks (11.1 percent) for every strikeout. The righthanded-hitting Epperson, who has at least plus speed and ran the 60-yard dash in 6.5 seconds in the fall, also has 11 steals, the seventh highest total, in 13 attempts.

 

UC Irvine corner infielder Taylor Sparks has a strong physique and plus raw power that plays in game action with an ISO of .241. Although his walk rate has more than doubled this year (9.8 percent) compared to his career (4.4), he continues to swing and miss at a high rate. The righthanded-hitting Sparks has struck out in nearly one-quarter of his plate appearances (23.2), the second-highest rate. Sparks, a below-average runner, has been a run-erasing basestealer with three swipes in nine chances.

 

One of the best athletes in the college class, San Diego State center fielder Greg Allen is showing the skills of a traditional leadoff hitter. Allen has at least plus speed and the ability to stick in center field with an arm that is at least average. His 20 steals are the most of any prospect and he has stolen at an 87 percent clip. The switch-hitting Allen controls the strike zone and walks (14.0) significantly more than he strikes out (9.9). As expected for a speedy line-drive hitter, Allen has a high career BABIP (.360). His below-average power is limited, demonstrated by his .057 ISO this season and .070 in his career.

 

Texas outfielder Mark Payton looks like a solid senior sign who has performed throughout his college career and is an unsigned 16th-round pick from last year. The 22-year-old lefthanded hitter has third-highest walk rate (18.4) and has walked nearly three times for every strikeout (6.7) on the year to go with the third lowest strikeout rate. Payton, with a compact swing and 5-foot-8, 190-pound build, has below-average power to the gaps. His fringy-to-below-average speed limits him to a corner and his arm is likely best suited for left field.

 

Mississippi State lefthander Jacob Lindgren moved to the bullpen this year and has produced exemplary results. With a heavy fastball that has been up to 95 mph and slider that shows above-average potential, the well-built Lindgren has struck out 45.8 percent of hitters, the most of any pitcher for a rate of 16.5 per nine. His average walk rate of 3.0 per nine produced a 5.4 strikeout-walk ratio. His strikeout rates coupled with a very fortunate BABIP (.191) have produced a 1.35 ERA in 26 2/3 innings.

 

In 17 innings this year, Louisville righthander Nick Burdi has yet to allow an earned run. The flame-throwing Burdi, who touches 100 mph, has struck out 43.5 percent of hitters with a strikeout-walk ratio of 5.

 

A back-and-forth run for the strikeout lead between Cal Poly lefthander Matt Imhof and Texas Christian lefthander Brandon Finnegan has Imhof ahead by a margin of 88-84. Imhof has struck out 36.5 percent of hitters with a strikeout-walk ratio of 4 against Finnegan’s 35.1 percent and 4.9.

 

Vanderbilt righthander Adam Ravenelle has a great pitcher’s body and a power fastball that can sit 92-95 mph, touching higher, which he couples with strong strike-throwing ability this season. He has the second-lowest walk rate of all pitchers (3.1 percent) with a strikeout-walk ratio of 10. Although Ravenelle has only thrown 17 innings on the season, this demonstrates a substantial improvement in his control after walking 5.7 per nine in his first two seasons (21 innings).

 

Florida Atlantic lefthander Austin Gomber, who is very young for the class and is 6-foot-5, ran his fastball up to 94 early in the spring and has shown the potential for above-average control, walking 1.5 per nine with a strikeout-walk ratio of 5.6.

 

Southern California righthander Nigel Nootbaar has struggled to throw strikes out of the Trojans bullpen, walking 10.3 per nine and nearly one-quarter of hitters (23.5). His fastball can reach the mid-90s but he has length to his arm action and throws from a low arm slot.

 

Cal State Bakersfield lefthander Austin Davis was rising up draft boards early in the spring with increased velocity, but he has racked up big pitch counts and struggled to throw strikes. Davis has walked 4.8 per nine for a strikeout-walk ratio of 1.5. In his second-to-last start, Davis threw 149 pitches sandwiched around 119 the week prior and 114 last weekend.

 

Righthander Oregon reliever Jake Reed has effort to his cross-body delivery and low three-quarters arm slot, producing a walk rate of 15.9 percent and 5.9 per nine.

 

Florida Gulf Coast outfielder Michael Suchy has an intriguing power-speed skill set, but has shown swing-and-miss tendencies with a strikeout rate of 18 percent. He has the fourth-lowest walk rate at 4.2 percent. Suchy has a big, physical and athletic body at 6-foot-4 and 230 pounds, but has just a pair of home runs although he does play in a pitcher’s haven (78 PF). The righthanded-swinging Suchy is hitting .288/.329/.425 on the season.

[ace3113]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/college/draft-tracker-april-18/

 

Draft Tracker: April 18

 

With the draft less than 50 days away, power arms are moving up draft boards. This week’s installment of Draft Tracker focuses on a pair of tall pitchers and two with ties to Missouri.

 

Brett Graves, rhp, Missouri

 

Missouri righthander Brett Graves reached campus as a prized recruit who has touched the mid-90s with his fastball during his senior year of high school. His college career began slowly as he walked (5.7 per nine) more than he struck out (5.4) in 47 innings as a freshman. His control improved as a sophomore (2.7 walks per nine), but struggled strike hitters out (4.0).

 

“When he gets to campus he is still that same high school pitcher with velocity but scattered command up in the zone with his fastball, a good breaking ball and he never needed a changeup,” Missouri pitching coach Matt Hobbs said. ”Freshman year was a tough year for him. Then came the progression of having the stuff and being able to command it his sophomore year, but it wasn’t at a high velocity. His velocity dipped a little bit his sophomore year because he was trying to throw strikes.”

 

After a strong summer in the New England Collegiate League, the athletic Graves has combined impressive stuff with dramatically improved strike-throwing ability.

 

“He went out this summer with velocity and command and then he came back this fall with velocity and a nasty breaking ball,” Hobbs said. “It was a really exciting progression.”

 

Graves, who has a loose, quick arm, has primarily sat 90-93 throughout the spring, touching 95 with regularity. He has a two- and four-seamer, commanding the four-seamer better. Unlike many college starters, Graves pitches off of his fastball and scouts have noted that he has the ability to get swings and misses with his fastball.

 

“I would say his fastball usage probably in the 60-70 percent range,” Hobbs said. “He pitches more with a pro style because he throws a ton of fastballs and he knows that is his money-maker. The breaking ball, changeup and the cutter are all behind his fastball and that is not a knock on him that is only because we throw so many fastballs and it is such a good pitch.”

 

Graves, who entered the year with a career walk rate of 3.9 per nine, has improved his control significantly, lowering his walk rate to 1.6 this season and throwing strikes on 67 percent of his pitches. His strike-throwing ability has been remarkably consistent, with seven consecutive starts of allowing zero walks or one walk. The righthander’s low strikeout rate has also improved to 7.1, and he has a strikeout-walk ratio of 4.4 compared to 1.2 during his first two seasons.

 

His top secondary offering is his breaking ball that has at least average potential, flashing better. Scouts have said that his breaking stuff has blended together at times this season, but Hobbs said Graves doesn’t use multiple breaking balls.

 

“I want to call it a curveball and he wants to throw it a slider. We can stay in the middle and call it a power slurve. It is an 11-5 hard breaking ball,” Hobbs said. “This sounds crazy but sometimes he works anywhere from 77-86 with it. When he is throwing it really hard, he has thrown it up to 85-86 this season. It is shorter in those situations, so scouts are seeing slider. It is the same pitch he is just throwing it harder.”

 

A mid-80s changeup is his third offering, and Graves has integrated a high-80s cutter into his repertoire against lefthanded hitters that he uses fewer than five times a game, according to Hobbs.

 

Graves has a strong, athletic build at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds. Despite his size, Graves has groundball tendencies with a 1.3 groundout-flyout ratio this season.

 

The 21-year-old’s development this season has put in him consideration to be drafted on the first day.

 

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Bryce Montes de Oca, rhp, Lawrence (Kan.) High

 

The high school draft class is defined by the sheer volume of power arms and one of the biggest arms in the class has returned to game action for the first time in over a year, as righthander Bryce Montes de Oca has started twice this season after not pitching on the showcase circuit due to Tommy John surgery.

 

Montes de Oca created a stir among evaluations at Jupiter in October of 2012. The audience for the junior righthander consisted mainly of a handful of college coaches. But when the 6-foot-8, 265-pound Montes de Oca showed his mid-90s fastball, evaluators came flocking by the dozens and he became a priority follow.

 

Montes de Oca, a Perfect Game All-American, missed nearly all of his spring season last year and made his regular season debut this season (last Thursday) on the one-year anniversary of his surgery.

 

He was limited to 35 pitches in his first outing, brandishing a 94-97 mph fastball. He was 92-96 Thursday on 45 pitches.

 

“He has major league stuff,” said pitching coach Shawn Sedlacek, a former major league pitcher. “He is a big guy with a very heavy fastball. He has a lot behind the ball and when he goes to his two-seam fastball it is very heavy and sinks a lot. The heavy arm-side run is something that will make life very difficult for hitters.”

 

His breaking ball showed at least average potential before his surgery and the offering will be a work in progress because of the mound time he has missed.

 

“His curveball is plenty good and it has plenty of rotation as far as spin,” Sedlacek said. “He has good action on it. It is in that 11-5 range and he likes his changeup. He might even throw his changeup more than his curveball.”

 

The Missouri commit used altered mechanics since he came back from his surgery.

 

“He has worked at smoothing out the lower half where he is not dropping and driving, but he is driving to the plate by using his legs and hips,” Sedlacek said.

 

Large pitchers regularly face questions about their strike-throwing ability, and Montes de Oca will be no different. He mostly worked up with his fastball in his first start but threw strikes on 64 percent of his pitches in his second start. He is young for the class and will turn 18 next week.

 

History shows that the majority of tall pitchers to reach the majors come from the college ranks, as the scouting industry prefers to have tall pitchers show their stuff and strike-throwing ability for a few years after high school. Of the 33 American-born major league pitchers taller that were at least 6-foot-8, 82 percent were not drafted out of high school. The tallest drafted high school pitchers in recent memory are 6-foot-8 Blue Jays lefthander Matt Smoral and 6-foot-7 righthander Chris Volstad.

 

Montes de Oca will be priority viewing for teams over the next few weeks leading up to the draft because few arms possess his power stuff, which puts him in contention to be a potential first-day selection.

 

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Brock Dykxhoorn, rhp, Central Arizona JC

 

Canadian righthander Brock Dykxhoorn originally committed to Central Arizona JC out of his Ontario high school, and he’s starred for the Vaqueros this spring, going 8-3, 2.73 in the wood-bat Arizona CC Athletic Conference.

 

In the process, the 6-foot-8, 225-pounder has climbed draft boards and positioned himself as the top prospect in the Grand Canyon State’s juco ranks, with scouts pegging him as a first-10-rounds selection.

 

“He’s throwing a lot of strikes,” Central Arizona JC coach John Wente said. “We usually do not get strike-throwers like him at this level, but he repeats, even at his size. And that gives him a different angle and makes him hard to square up.”

 

The Reds drafted Dykxhoorn in the 20th round in 2012 out of high school, but he didn’t sign and spent his freshman season at West Virginia. Dykxhoorn pitched well for the Mountaineers, going 2-1, 3.15 in 10 appearances over 34.1 innings, but decided to transfer, as he explained to ex-BA intern Alexis Brudnicki.

 

The move should pay off in this year’s draft, as the Canadian’s frame and stuff have earned him some comparisons to big league veteran Jon Rauch. Dykxhoorn pitches off a sinking fastball he throws in the 88-91 mph range and has touched 92 mph. His best secondary pitch prior to this season was his changeup, especially in the fall, Wente said. But his slider has improved this spring, helping him get more swings and misses. He’s racked up 93 strikeouts in 66 innings (12.68 K/9) with 21 walks, 46 hits allowed and no home runs.

 

—John Manuel

 

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Jack Flaherty, rhp/3b, Harvard-Westlake HS, Burbank, Calif.

 

Scouts have had Flaherty on their radar for years, both as a third baseman and as a pitcher. From the start of the 2014 season, however, when Flaherty struck out 12 in his season debut, the pendulum of opinion has swung over to the pitcher side. And nothing Flaherty has done since then has stopped the momentum.

 

“He’s going out as a pitcher,” said an area scout in Los Angeles. “For me, he can’t hit. The swing’s mechanics are bad. But on the mound, it’s athletic, there’s a lot of plusses. The arm is clean and fast.”

 

Flaherty had plenty of heat at a Monday start against Loyola High and didn’t disappoint, striking out eight over seven innings, using 100 pitches. An area scout agreed with coach Matt LaCour, who said Flaherty sat 90-91 mph with his fastball, hit 92 regularly and touched 93. Flaherty’s feel for pitching and strike-throwing ability stand out, as does his changeup, a pitch some scouts are projecting as a plus-plus pitch. One evaluator compared him to Jeff Suppan and said there may be more velocity to come, pointing to the projection in Flaherty’s listed 6-foot-3, 217-pound frame.

 

Everyone involved believes the North Carolina recruit will be drafted as a pitcher, perhaps as early as the compensation round or early in the second round.

 

—John Manuel

[ace3113]

Is anyone interested in doing a mock draft? If you have familiarity with the drafting philosophy or patterns of a particular team you would be an ideal candidate. Hoepfully we can get one person for each team, but 3 or 4 teams per person would be okay given the amount of people who check this thread. Basically you make the pick and make a quick blurb about why that team or scouting director/GM is likely to make that pick given their past history and the strengths of their farm, and also a quick scouting report of the player. We'll probably just do 2-3 rounds. Depending on the quality of the picks/analysis, we could edit it and repurpose it for the blog I guess, but it's really just more for fun. Anyone interested, just post what team/teams you want to represent. The "draft" won't start until all of the teams are represented. Once they are you can make your pick as soon as it's up. Hopefully people are conscientious about checking in so it doesn't take a month to do. Here is a list of the draft order for reference.

 

1ST ROUND

 

1. Astros

2. Marlins

3. White Sox

4. Cubs

5. Twins

6. Mariners

7. Phillies

8. Rockies

9. Blue Jays

10. Mets

11. Blue Jays (for failing to sign 2013 No. 10 pick Phil Bickford)

12. Brewers

13. Padres

14. Giants

15. Angels

16. Diamondbacks

17. Royals

18. Nationals

19. Reds

20. Rays

21. Indians

22. Dodgers

23. Tigers

24. Pirates

25. Athletics

26. Red Sox

27. Cardinals

 

COMPENSATION ROUND A

 

28. Royals (Santana)

29. Reds (Choo)

30. Rangers (Nelson Cruz)

31. Indians (Jimenez)

32. Braves (McCann)

33. Red Sox (Ellsbury)

34. Cardinals (Beltran)

 

COMPEITIVE BALANCE ROUND A

 

35. Colorado Rockies

36. Miami Marlins (M. Krook - unsigned)

37. Houston Astros (from the Orioles)

38. Cleveland Indians

39. Miami Marlins

40. Kansas City Royals

41. Milwaukee Brewers

 

SECOND ROUND

 

42. Houston Astros

43. Miami Marlins

44. Chicago White Sox

45. Chicago Cubs

46. Minnesota Twins

47. Seattle Mariners

48. Philadelphia Phillies

49. Colorado Rockies

50. Toronto Blue Jays

51. Milwaukee Brewers

52. San Diego Padres

53. San Francisco Giants

54. Los Angeles Angels

55. Arizona Diamondbacks

56. New York Yankees

57. Kansas City Royals

58. Washington Nationals

59. Cincinnati Reds

60. Texas Rangers

61. Tampa Bay Rays

62. Cleveland Indians

63. Los Angeles Dodgers

64. Detroit Tigers

65. Pittsburgh Pirates

66. Oakland Athletics

67. Atlanta Braves

68. Boston Red Sox

69. St. Louis Cardinals

 

COMPETITIVE BALANCE ROUND B

 

70. Arizona Diamondbacks (from the Padres)

71. Arizona Diamondbacks

72. St. Louis Cardinals

73. Tampa Bay Rays

74. Pittsburgh Pirates

75. Seattle Mariners

 

THIRD ROUND

 

76. Houston Astros

77. Miami Marlins

78. Chicago White Sox

79. Chicago Cubs

80. Minnesota Twins

81. Seattle Mariners

82. Philadelphia Phillies

83. Colorado Rockies

84. Toronto Blue Jays

85. New York Mets

86. Milwaukee Brewers

87. San Diego Padres

88. San Francisco Giants

89. Los Angeles Angels

90. Arizona Diamondbacks

91. Baltimore Orioles

92. New York Yankees

93. Kansas City Royals

94. Washington Nationals

95. Cincinnati Reds

96. Texas Rangers

97. Tampa Bay Rays

99. Cleveland Indians

99. Los Angeles Dodgers

100. Detroit Tigers

101. Pittsburgh Pirates

102. Oakland Athletics

103. Atlanta Braves

104. Boston Red Sox

105. St. Louis Cardinals

[GD]

I'm in. I'll suck at the later picks though.

[ace3113]

I'm in. I'll suck at the later picks though.

 

Maybe just 1st and 2nd then since those prospects should fall well within BA's and PG's top 100 pick lists. What team or teams are you interested in picking for? I'll take whatever teams are left once people have staked their claims. I have pay-walled scouting reports from various publications for a ton of prospects I can email them to those participating.

[GD]

1. Blue Jays

2. Cubs

3. Angels

[Abomination]

Apparently AA seems to have a lot of interest in Gareth Morgan, and has been out to see him personally.

[Grant77]

Thanks Ace, great read!

[ace3113]

Thanks Ace, great read!

 

No prob. BTW- Grant we need GMs/SDs for a mock draft we're drafting for the upcoming amateur draft.You're very in tune with the prospect scene, so could we convince you to be the GM/SD for a team or 3? It's not for fantasy baseball, but rather more in line with the mock drafts people like Klaw and BA put out. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I have a word document with tons of scouting reports from pay-walled sites for all those participating as a resource, just let me know and I'll email it to you guys.

[Caper]

Is anyone interested in doing a mock draft? If you have familiarity with the drafting philosophy or patterns of a particular team you would be an ideal candidate. Hoepfully we can get one person for each team, but 3 or 4 teams per person would be okay given the amount of people who check this thread. Basically you make the pick and make a quick blurb about why that team or scouting director/GM is likely to make that pick given their past history and the strengths of their farm, and also a quick scouting report of the player. We'll probably just do 2-3 rounds. Depending on the quality of the picks/analysis, we could edit it and repurpose it for the blog I guess, but it's really just more for fun. Anyone interested, just post what team/teams you want to represent. The "draft" won't start until all of the teams are represented. Once they are you can make your pick as soon as it's up. Hopefully people are conscientious about checking in so it doesn't take a month to do. Here is a list of the draft order for reference.

 

1ST ROUND

 

1. Astros

2. Marlins

3. White Sox

4. Cubs

5. Twins

6. Mariners

7. Phillies

8. Rockies

9. Blue Jays

10. Mets

11. Blue Jays (for failing to sign 2013 No. 10 pick Phil Bickford)

12. Brewers

13. Padres

14. Giants

15. Angels

16. Diamondbacks

17. Royals

18. Nationals

19. Reds

20. Rays

21. Indians

22. Dodgers

23. Tigers

24. Pirates

25. Athletics

26. Red Sox

27. Cardinals

 

COMPENSATION ROUND A

 

28. Royals (Santana)

29. Reds (Choo)

30. Rangers (Nelson Cruz)

31. Indians (Jimenez)

32. Braves (McCann)

33. Red Sox (Ellsbury)

34. Cardinals (Beltran)

 

COMPEITIVE BALANCE ROUND A

 

35. Colorado Rockies

36. Miami Marlins (M. Krook - unsigned)

37. Houston Astros (from the Orioles)

38. Cleveland Indians

39. Miami Marlins

40. Kansas City Royals

41. Milwaukee Brewers

 

SECOND ROUND

 

42. Houston Astros

43. Miami Marlins

44. Chicago White Sox

45. Chicago Cubs

46. Minnesota Twins

47. Seattle Mariners

48. Philadelphia Phillies

49. Colorado Rockies

50. Toronto Blue Jays

51. Milwaukee Brewers

52. San Diego Padres

53. San Francisco Giants

54. Los Angeles Angels

55. Arizona Diamondbacks

56. New York Yankees

57. Kansas City Royals

58. Washington Nationals

59. Cincinnati Reds

60. Texas Rangers

61. Tampa Bay Rays

62. Cleveland Indians

63. Los Angeles Dodgers

64. Detroit Tigers

65. Pittsburgh Pirates

66. Oakland Athletics

67. Atlanta Braves

68. Boston Red Sox

69. St. Louis Cardinals

 

COMPETITIVE BALANCE ROUND B

 

70. Arizona Diamondbacks (from the Padres)

71. Arizona Diamondbacks

72. St. Louis Cardinals

73. Tampa Bay Rays

74. Pittsburgh Pirates

75. Seattle Mariners

 

THIRD ROUND

 

76. Houston Astros

77. Miami Marlins

78. Chicago White Sox

79. Chicago Cubs

80. Minnesota Twins

81. Seattle Mariners

82. Philadelphia Phillies

83. Colorado Rockies

84. Toronto Blue Jays

85. New York Mets

86. Milwaukee Brewers

87. San Diego Padres

88. San Francisco Giants

89. Los Angeles Angels

90. Arizona Diamondbacks

91. Baltimore Orioles

92. New York Yankees

93. Kansas City Royals

94. Washington Nationals

95. Cincinnati Reds

96. Texas Rangers

97. Tampa Bay Rays

99. Cleveland Indians

99. Los Angeles Dodgers

100. Detroit Tigers

101. Pittsburgh Pirates

102. Oakland Athletics

103. Atlanta Braves

104. Boston Red Sox

105. St. Louis Cardinals

 

 

If we are going to do this.... We should do the 1st 30 rounds.

[Angrioter]

Apparently AA seems to have a lot of interest in Gareth Morgan, and has been out to see him personally.

 

I saw this guy and Paul Quantrill's son 2 years ago. He hit a moonshot to the LF wall. He look like Marcell Ozuna.

[GD]

If we are going to do this.... We should do the 1st 30 rounds.

 

Holy f*** what

 

That would take YEARS and nobody would know anybody besides Ace

[Grant77]

No prob. BTW- Grant we need GMs/SDs for a mock draft we're drafting for the upcoming amateur draft.You're very in tune with the prospect scene, so could we convince you to be the GM/SD for a team or 3? It's not for fantasy baseball, but rather more in line with the mock drafts people like Klaw and BA put out. As I mentioned earlier in the thread, I have a word document with tons of scouting reports from pay-walled sites for all those participating as a resource, just let me know and I'll email it to you guys.

 

Yeah, that sounds great. I'd love to participate. I follow the draft philosophies of the Brewers (for the Canadians), A's and Twins fairly closely, but I can do my homework on any team.

[ace3113]

Yeah, that sounds great. I'd love to participate. I follow the draft philosophies of the Brewers (for the Canadians), A's and Twins fairly closely, but I can do my homework on any team.

 

Perfect. The Brewers are available but the Twins and the A's are taken. Here are the teams that are covered so far. I'm hoping everyone will take at least 2 or 3 teams, and I'll take whatever is left.

 

http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/2677-Blue-Jays-Board-2014-Mock-Draft

 

Houston - Fatcowxlive

Oakland - Fatcowxlive

Chicago C - GD

Blue Jays - GD

Anaheim - GD

Minnesota - King

Kansas City - Northof49

St. Louis - TheHurl

Tampa Bay - The Hurl *potentially*

Milwaukee - Grant77

Pittsburgh - Grant 77

Edited April 22, 2014 by ace3113

[Grant77]

Put me down for Pittsburgh for now and if you have some leftover teams then I'll fill in another spot.

[ace3113]

http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=9767

 

College prospect buzz: April 22

 

TCU junior lefthanded pitcher Brandon Finnegan isn't a finished product, but his progressions throughout the spring have head coach Jim Schlossnagle and scouts excited about the possibilities down the stretch, and this summer, should Finnegan, a projected first-round pick, decide to sign.

 

This was my second opportunity to see Finnegan this season, with this go-round being exponentially more impressive. The first performance I saw from Finnegan this spring was against hard-hitting Sam Houston State at the Houston College Classic. Finnegan displayed very good velocity, getting up to 95 mph with his fastball, but command lacked on all of his offerings, and he allowed five runs on eight hits in 6 2/3 innings. Even in what was perceived a less than stellar performance, Finnegan still struck out 11 against the Bearkats.

 

Fast-forward to Finnegan's performance against Texas last weekend in a crucial Big 12 road series. With the conditions in the upper-50s with heavy mist, it was easy to not expect too much from Finnegan or Texas righthanded pitcher Parker French. Finnegan, though, put together his best performance of the season on the way to a 3-0 victory.

 

“Finnegan, like most elite pitchers, is one of those guys you better jump on early, and tonight, he settled in,” TCU coach Jim Schlossnagle said. “The thing about Brandon. We hear so much about his fastball, but it's his overall command and his breaking stuff that was the most impressive in this performance.”

 

Finnegan has the potential to get up to 95-97 mph with his fastball, but kept things steady at 91-93, and up to 94 against the Longhorns, resulting in better command of the offering. Most impressive about Finnegan's fastball is that it had life at the top and bottom of the strike zone, while the lefty also did a terrific job of spotting up the pitch on the outside corner of the plate.

 

Finnegan's slider was a plus offering against the Longhorns. He sat 82-84 with the pitch, and was just devastating against lefthanded hitters, striking out at least one UT hitter on three-straight sliders, all breaking sharply to the outside part of the plate. Meanwhile, Finnegan also consistently threw an 81-82 mph changeup, while his 75-77 curveball, a pitch that he used often in Houston earlier this year, wasn't a go-to pitch, particularly early in the game as he tried to get into a groove.

 

The lefthander's elite stuff set the foundation for a huge road series sweep. He finished the night striking out 11, walking one and allowing just four hits in eight shutout innings. Finnegan threw 116 pitches, 76 for strikes, and has a 1.56 ERA in 69 1/3 innings, along with 95 strikeouts and 18 walks.

 

Finnegan ranks as the No. 8 college prospect by Perfect Game as the Major League Baseball draft nears.