I'll say it: WALKS ARE OVERRATED

[Caper]

If a thing is overrated wouldn't you see teams with that characteristic being over-rated?? Like find teams that walk 650 times a year and show that they rarely make the playoffs.

 

No.... if you get 650 walks/yr... that means you are successful in the pursuit of walks. Again... I'm not saying they are unimportant.

... Also 650 walks, is a tonne of walks.

[Jimcanuck]

If a thing is overrated wouldn't you see teams with that characteristic being over-rated?? Like find teams that walk 650 times a year and show that they rarely make the playoffs.

 

a bit of a fallacy there, teams that are winning send more batter to the plate, have more opportunity to get walks

 

its not a direct correlation

[Caper]

The other ting is this. Once you get into the post season and good pitching largely takes over... I find teams that rely heavily on walks... just get set down a lot more. I thought that fit the Yankees a bit in the post season the last few years.... I think it will win you a bunch of games to get you there, but once you are there it can sometimes be a bit of a liability... that is trying to see a lot of pitches and then being down 0-2 and 1-2 a lot.

[JSFIP]

I like the number of replies but I am still not convinced. Walks are overrated, hits are simply more important. That's that in my humble opinion

[Nox]

The other ting is this. Once you get into the post season and good pitching largely takes over... I find teams that rely heavily on walks... just get set down a lot more. I thought that fit the Yankees a bit in the post season the last few years.... I think it will win you a bunch of games to get you there, but once you are there it can sometimes be a bit of a liability... that is trying to see a lot of pitches and then being down 0-2 and 1-2 a lot.

 

A) That's not true

You never try to assemble a team that is specifically built for the playoffs. You build a roster to maximize your chances of making the playoffs. Once you're there, it's little more than glorified coin flipping.

[JSFIP]

The nice thing about linear weights and resulting metrics like wOBA and wRC+ is that they tell us exactly how valuable walks are, eliminating opportunities for people like you to embarrass themselves.

 

Well, those sure would've come in handy earlier when this thread actually had some sort of decent discussion going on. Too bad

[Nox]

You forgot to close by telling me you bet I've never played baseball.

 

That was implied Norman.

[jaysblue]

go ahead, disagree with me. I'm sure all of you sabermetrics idiots will instantly. It's the truth, that's all. Soooooooo overrated by everyone on this board.

 

jpa?

[JSFIP]

Nobody is arguing the latter point. What do you mean by "overrated"? How much do you think walks are worth in relation to singles?

 

Hmmm, I'm gonna say a walk is worth about 66.6666666667% as much as a single

[JSFIP]

jpa?

 

Yet another absent-minded dig at JPA. Enough is enough, people

[Jimcanuck]

Hmmm, I'm gonna say a walk is worth about 66.6666666667% as much as a single

 

 

seems high to me, a single will drive in anyone on 3rd and most of the time anyone on 2nd, a walk sends a runner home only if the bases are full

 

I would peg a walk at somewhere around 58.6% of a single

[JSFIP]

You would be incorrect.

 

Well actually, according to NorthOf49, I'm only off by 1.2666666666667%, so I guess I am technically wrong. Unless you disagree with linear weights, that is

[JSFIP]

Linear weights show they're worth about 65.4% as much as a single, so you're very close. Some people would probably go as high as 80%, and those people would indeed be overrating walks.

 

Thanks for the info, good to know I was almost there!

[Jimcanuck]

Linear weights show they're worth about 65.4% as much as a single, so you're very close. Some people would probably go as high as 80%, and those people would indeed be overrating walks.

 

is this based on a closed form solution?

[Nox]

is this based on a closed form solution?

 

I think you'd be disappointed to know how few things in this world are wrapped up into a nice little deterministic packages.

[Jimcanuck]

Keep in mind that a walk doesn't decrease the chance that the next hitter will get a hit. By walking your team doesn't pass up the opportunity to score the runner on third. You're not wasting the PA, rather are adding to the potential outcome of your team's next PA.

 

sure but walking also increases the chances of a double play, and the chances are EE is the one that walked, and JPA is the next batter, meaning double play or K, take your pick

[Jimcanuck]

I think you'd be disappointed to know how few things in this world are wrapped up into a nice little deterministic packages.

 

hey 22 yrs as a professional engineer, I have no illusions

[JSFIP]

It doesn't help When the guy starts the thread saying

 

"WALKS ARE OVERRATED

I DONT CARE WHAT YOU SABERMETRIC IDIOTS THINK, WALKS ARE OVER RATED"

 

Get over it man. Just because you did everything you could to stop this from being a good discussion, and failed in the process, doesnt mean you have to push your anger on the rest of us

[JSFIP]

I'm not a angry bro

 

You wanted good discussion, you started the thread with a dumbass post.

 

And now it's on its 7th page and doing just fine. Everyone else is ok with it. Come on now

[JSFIP]

You can not be expected to taken seriously with a post like this

 

Well I am. Except for you. Go ahead and keep proving your useless point I guess, if that's how you want to waste your time

[JSFIP]

What useless point?

 

The point that this isn't being taken seriously. I see plenty of what I would consider to be "serious" discussion. Sorry it didn't start out in the way you wanted

[TheHurl]

And now it's on its 7th page and doing just fine. Everyone else is ok with it. Come on now

 

King Kalfus thread is over 20 pages now, intelligent conversation is not based on responses around here. #sizedoesntmatter

[JSFIP]

No actually it was obnoxious..and probably why it is on it's 7th page.. half the posts are off topic

 

Says the guy who called out others for personal things during a serious discussion.

 

Pot, meet kettle

[Jimcanuck]

Successful teams score runs in bunches. Instead of hitting into a double play, the next hitter could hit a bases-clearing double to put the team up for good. Many more times than not you'll benefit from having the extra runner on base.

 

sure. my comment was simply to counterbalance yours which as written implied there is no downside to a walk. there can be significant downside to a walk which is why an intentional base on balls is worth about 25% of a single

[JSFIP]

I am embarrassed for you.

 

Well, I am embarrssed for you because you can't give up on this. Get over yourself. This thread is once again useless thanks to your bickering

[TheHurl]

I would like to know what people think is the*optimal batting average and walk rate that is reasonable for the average player

 

I think the average BB rate is 8.5%

[JSFIP]

Alright, I'll stop bickering. Go back to discussing how walks are over rated

 

Will do. Thanks for the King™ Seal-of-Approval

[JSFIP]

I wasn't trying to give my approval, you arrogant f***. I was just saying I will stop bothering you and you can carry on with your thread.

 

No need to get vulgar here. "Go back to discussing how walks are over rated" sounds like approval to me, but maybe I'm the only one

[TheHurl]

Am I the only one on the forum who just finds the Kalfus thing annoying?

 

haven't read the thread once.

[JSFIP]

This doesn't need to be argued. You want to get your dumbass thread back to discussion, you aren't helping yourself.

 

It doesn't. I was done, and you said you were, but apparently that wasn't enough. Stop hating on the thread too, there is no need for that at this point